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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 6th February 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Feb 06, 2009 - 08:19 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1256.25 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 1153.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at 1132.00 later this winter.


First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1249.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1256.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1206.97. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1195.32. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 8.50 pts. at 1243.00 as of 5:59 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 849.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 875.50 are needed to renew the rally off January's low. If March renews last week's decline, January's low crossing at 797.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 849.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 875.50. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 817.00. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 806.40. The March S&P 500 Index was up 2.70 pts. at 843.20 as of 6:02 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were higher overnight due to short covering as they consolidate above support marked by the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 126-12. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 122-23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 131-03 are needed to confirm that a short- term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 127-30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131-03. First support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 126-12. Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 125-20.

ENERGY MARKETS
March crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates to trading sideways to lower off the late- January high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, January's low crossing at 39.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 42.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 48.59 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 41.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 42.71. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 39.46. Second support is January's low crossing at 39.11.

March heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews January's decline, December's low crossing at 123.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 148.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 137.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.93. First support is January's low crossing at 130.39. Second support is December's low crossing at 123.96.

March unleaded gas was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 129.90 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of this year's trading range and would confirm that a trend change is taking place. If March renews Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 106.80 is the next downside target. Closes below January's low would confirm a downside breakout of the current trading range while opening the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at 87.08 later this winter. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 127.75. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 129.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.96. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.28.

March Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking but remains above broken resistance marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.522. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.728 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 4.160 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.728. Second resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4.742. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.280. Second support is monthly support crossing at 4.160.

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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last week's low, January's high crossing at 87.40 is the next upside target. If this resistance level is cleared, the 87% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 88.37 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below last week's low crossing at 84.02 are needed to confirm that the rally off December's low has come to an end. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 86.97. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 87.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.66. Second support is last week's low crossing at 84.02.

The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 126.441 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.292 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.396. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.293. First support is Monday's low crossing at 126.980. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 126.441.

The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.57. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1.4964 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4345 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.4762. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4964. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4345. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.3492.

The March Swiss Franc was steady to lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline the 87% retracement level crossing at .8370 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8752 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8661. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8752. First support is the overnight low crossing at .8521. Second support is broken resistance marked by the reaction high crossing at .8495.

The March Canadian Dollar was sharply lower overnight due to profit taking and is extending the decline off the late-January high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 79.82 would open the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at 78.30. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 81.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at .8124. Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 81.79. First support is the overnight low crossing at 79.68. Second support is January's low crossing at 78.30.

The March Japanese Yen was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Thursday's close below the reaction low crossing at .10964 confirmed that January's high marked a double top with December's high. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at .10567 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .11159 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .11132. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11159. First support is Thursday's low crossing at .10846. Second support is January's low crossing at .10567.

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PRECIOUS METALS
April gold was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible. If April extends this year's rally, October's high crossing at 938.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 874.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 928.20. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 938.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 906.90.

Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing near 874.90.

March silver was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last October's low, the 38% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 13.376 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.722 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 12.920. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 13.376. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.375. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.722.

March copper was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.62. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 163.10 is the next upside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 163.10 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of January's trading range. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 137.30 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of January's trading range and would open the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at 125.50. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 159.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 163.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 150.55. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 139.90.

FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.780 as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.001 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 11.270 is the next downside target.

March cocoa closed higher on Thursday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 29.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.24 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

March sugar posted a key reversal up on Thursday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.76. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13.14 is the next upside target.

March cotton posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.10. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this year's rally, the 25% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 54.53 is the next upside target.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

March corn was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.75 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.79. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.55 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 3.52 3/4.

March wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.73 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.37 3/4 is the next downside target.

March wheat closed up 19 1/2-cents at 5.61 1/2.

March wheat closed sharply higher on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.75 3/4 are needed confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.55 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 6.24 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes below this support level would confirm that a double top with the early-January high has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness into early-February.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were higher overnight and trading above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.87. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.87 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.40 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. If March the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 9.20 is the next downside target.

March soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight and is trading above the 10-day moving average crossing at 308.60. The high-range close overnight set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 308.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this week's decline, January's low crossing at 292.00 is the next downside target.

March soybean oil was higher in overnight trading due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.52 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this year's decline, the reaction low crossing at 30.50 is the next downside target.

LIVESTOCK
April hogs closed down $0.62 at $60.25.

April hogs gapped down and closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 58.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.84. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.29. First support is today's low crossing at 59.85. Second support is weekly support crossing at 58.38.

February bellies closed down $1.80 at $79.00.

February bellies closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If February extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 78.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 83.30 are needed to confirm that a double bottom with December's low has been posted.
April cattle closed up $0.55 at 86.50.

April cattle closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.03. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 88.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March feeder cattle closed up $0.70 at $94.12.

March Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.68. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 95.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

By INO.com

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