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Category: Cycles Analysis

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, October 07, 2015

The 5th Convergence…An Economic & Financial Superstorm That Will Devastate America / Economics / Cycles Analysis

By: Harry_Dent

This morning we had to face some hard truths. The economy’s beginning to show its true colors.

Last month the economy added just 142,000 jobs. August was revised substantially lower to just 136,000 jobs. Analysts were expecting 200,000-plus jobs growth like it would go on forever.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 05, 2015

Stock Market Lindsay Right Shoulders / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

Long-time readers will remember Lindsay’s admonition that following extended basic advances (929-968 days) a right shoulder is to be expected. Normally, a right shoulder is a significant high but lower than the high of the bull market. However, Lindsay allowed for the possibility of a right shoulder appearing at a higher level than the high of the basic advance.  This happened in 1966 and 1973, and is occurring again in the current bull market.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Stock Market April Cycle Low / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

Although my Hybrid Lindsay forecasts always assume a small time window surrounds any single-date point forecast, the forecast for a high on April 15 (see last week’s commentary) was spot-on. The work of George Lindsay deals with time (not price) and tells us that the pullback following last week’s high should be over quickly.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Stock Market George Lindsay's 8-year Interval Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

The late technician, George Lindsay described an 8-year interval as part of his 22-year Overlay (An Aid to Timing, SeattleTA Press, 2012). He wrote that the high (or "moment of truth") at the end of the interval is often followed by a harsh 2-3 month decline followed by an approximate 5-month rally in equities.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

The Markets Have Just Issued a Major Warning / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Submissions

Michael Campbell writes:
- The Swiss franc rose over 30% in a hour vs the Euro on Friday.

- Copper dropped 11% in three days last week

- Oil is down 56% since June

- Russian Ruble is down 70% in 3 weeks

- 7 European Countries have negative interest rates (i.e. buy a government bond and be guaranteed to get less money back)

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Stock Market Cycles / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

7 Year Cycle Highs

For several decades the Dow has exhibited a cycle of seven years between highs. It has been as short as six years and, on one occasion, it stretched closer to eight years. All cycle highs matched the highs of Lindsay's basic cycles. The previous cycle high was in Oct 2007 and which makes a cycle high due now. The high should be point H of Lindsay's long cycle. Past experience implies it could come as late as Oct 2015 but a six-year cycle low makes that very unlikely.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Stock Market George Lindsay 22year Cycle Overlay / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

George Lindsay described his 22y overlay in a two part installment of his newsletter in 1964. In it he showed 18 examples of how the model had helped to time highs in the Dow. In the 22y overlay we are searching for three important intervals ending at a high 22y, 15y, and 8y later. Lows appear every ~7y followed by a high 8y after the final low.

Some of the highs he showed were significant and some were not. The significance of the forecast can predetermined by the significance of the 22y and 15y interval lows. The significance of the 8y interval does not affect the expected decline.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

New 120-year Kress Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Last month kicked off a new long-term Kress cycle. The Kress cycle, which answers to the Kondratief wave of inflation/deflation, is responsible for the overall climate of economic and financial market conditions in the U.S. This long-term cycle also influences the course of central bank monetary policy by creating the conditions which the Federal Reserve must tailor its policy response to.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 09, 2014

Stock Market Cycle - Exactly Where We Are / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: DailyWealth

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: I was on stage at The California Club in Los Angeles... being put on the spot. And I didn't have a good answer...

It was a private meeting, so it was a small crowd of less than 50 people. At the end of my speech, I answered a few questions.

I like to give good answers when I can. But this time, I didn't have a good answer. I fumbled around, sharing some facts. But I knew I could give a more accurate answer once I had run some numbers. I promised that I would respond more accurately in DailyWealth. So here goes...

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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 29, 2014

Cycles Have a History, You Should Read About It / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Harry_Dent

Last year, I was reading a sidebar in Barron’s where ex-fund manager and PIMCO director Paul McCulley was talking about a stock market peak later that year… at the same time sunspot cycles were forecast to peak.

This wasn’t the first time I’d heard respected analysts connect market activity to sunspot activity. Charles Nenner, a prominent cycle analyst believes there’s a plausible connection. So does Richard Mogey, founder of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles (and a speaker at our October IES Conference in Miami).

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Lindsay: The Stock Market 2011 Basic Advance / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

Over the past several months I have debated from which low of the 2011 Sideways Movement to count the current basic advance; 10/4/11, 11/25/11, or 12/19/11.

The first two lows were forecast by Middle Sections telling us that they are significant and should play a role in our forecasts.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 23, 2014

How Bad Will the 60-year Kress Cycle Bottom Be? / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

One of the questions most commonly asked by investors is why the economy has been so sluggish in recent years despite the Fed’s efforts at stimulating it?

This question was recently asked of former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner by Time magazine. His answer was that Americans are still “still living with the scars” of the credit crisis, implying that the reason for the slow pace of recovery is more psychological than anything. His answer is unsatisfactory, however, since it obscures the deeper reason behind the slow growth era of the last few years.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Stock Market New High and the Lindsay Forecast / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

Last week's new high in the Dow puts the Lindsay forecast into flux. Long time readers know that the advance from the 2011 Sideways Movement was long ago recognized to be the fly in the ointment for forecasting the end of the bull market.

Quick Review: Sideways Movements (when the basic advance is unable to reach the time span of the 15year interval) are almost always topping formations. Lindsay identified only two instances (over the course of 200 years) which saw advances from this pattern, rather than declines, and this was seen again in 2011. The challenge is in knowing from where to count the next basic advance. After much vacillating, it was decided to count the current basic advance from the low on 12/19/11 due to the description Lindsay gave of the 1926 pattern.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Hybrid Lindsay Anticipates a Stock Market Drop This Week / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

Last week's Commentary showed a forecast for an expected high in the Dow near Monday, 4/21/14. Last week's high came on Tuesday, one day later than expected. This week I will attempt to use my "Hybrid" Lindsay model to forecast the next low in the Dow. The Hybrid Lindsay model is my own approach to forecasting intermediate highs and lows which, as far as we know, Lindsay never published any forecasts. This model draws heavily on the work of George Lindsay.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 17, 2014

One of Harry Dent’s Three Keys to Market Prediction is Cycles / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Survive-Prosper

Harry Dent writes: I learned three crucial principles early on in my forecasting career.

The first is that the economy is a dynamic play between opposite principles.

The second is that natural, cyclical forces have an unstoppable effect on markets and economies, regardless of what we do.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Stock Market Cycles Middle Sections / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

An advancing Middle Section from early 2009 (top) pointed to two separate highs last week. The definition of a Middle Section is a period of time in which the Dow's rate of advance slows relative to what comes both before and after it. The two measuring points are points E and C. Point E is always the second-to-last rally in a Middle Section. Point C is the day the Dow drops down from a minor topping formation and begins the decline into the low of the Middle Section at point D. In this case, points C and D are identical.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 03, 2014

Look at the Stock Market 4-year Presidential Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

For all the bullish 2014 expectations among Wall Street analysts, few if any consider the impact of the long-term cycles. After all, it’s in late 2014 when several major long-term yearly cycles are scheduled to bottom in unison, from the widely followed 4-year cycle to the well-known 10-year cycle and on to the even bigger 40-year and 60-year cycles. Each of these cycles tends to stamp its unique presence on the stock market when they bottom individually. How much more then can we expect to feel their presence when they’re bottoming contiguously?

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 02, 2014

Lindsay Long Cycle Stock Market Low in 2016 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

In his seminal paper An Aid to Timing (published March, 1950) George Lindsay included a representation of all his long cycles from 1798 until 1949. Each long cycle was approximately 20 years in length and can be divided into two multiple cycles. These long cycles are what we refer to today as secular bull and bear markets.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 06, 2014

The Deflationary Effects of the Crashing Stock Market Kress Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Stocks came under selling pressure on Monday in the wake of renewed concerns over geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe. An escalation of tension between Russia and the Ukraine led to a plunge in Russia’s stock market, which in turn had a spillover effect on U.S. equities.

Russia is currently the focus of Wall Street’s worries right now. One of the better proxies for Russia’s stock market is the Market Vectors Russia ETF Trust (RSX), which lost nearly 7% in value on Monday. RSX made a 4-year low today which underscores the political and economic troubles facing that region of the globe.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Stocks Bull Market End / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

Over the last several months two cycles have caught my eye. The first, and better known, is the seven year cycle (Figure 1). Since 1939 it has expanded or contracted beyond what could be called seven years only twice. As the last major high was in 2007, the next seven year cycle high is due this year, 2014.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Stock Market Cycle Top Beginning of January 2014 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

One of the advantages of being at the center of the “Lindsay Renaissance” is receiving information from other investors and analysts, around the world, who have been quietly using the work of George Lindsay on their own for many years. Last week I received the dates shown in this chart.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Has the Long-term Kress Cycle Bottomed Early? / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

A reader asks, "I was wondering if it's possible that the long cycles, such as the 60-year cycle, have already bottomed early. Is that even a possibility within the scope of the cycles? It appears that the Fed has complete control of the markets right now. One cannot help but wonder how high they will drive the stock market, and how low they will drive the gold miners. It would seem that the imbalances are beginning to look a little conspicuous."

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Politics

Friday, December 06, 2013

The Kress Cycle and the Fate of the Middle Class, And China's Gold Appetite / Politics / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Just how much pain has the middle class suffered in the last four years? The data is quite conclusive: the pain has been harsh.

According to government statistics, wages for the middle class have shrunk appreciably in the past decade. The Census Bureau points out that the typical middle class household made $51,017 this year, roughly the same as the typical household made a quarter of a century ago. Adjusted for inflation, that's a decline in living standards too big to ignore.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 06, 2013

Stock and Commodity Market 60-Year Cycle Bottom Scenerios / Commodities / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

With less than a year to go before the bottom of the 60-year Super Cycle many investors are wondering how the coming months will play out. There are at least two major possibilities that need to be discussed: the soft landing and the hard landing.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Stock Market Cycles Chirality and Chiral Inversions / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: David_Petch

This article is a further extension of the concept I introduced over 2 years ago, titled “Markets Trapped in a Contracting Fibonacci Spiral” and the April 2013 issue of Stocks and Commodities Magazine titled “The Contracting Fibonacci Spiral”. Many might view this part of the article as a good place to exit, but I would encourage all to read this in its entirety, because it does provide a scientific insight into why cycles sometimes appear to skip a beat. If anyone is unfamiliar with either article, I would encourage to read them to have an understanding for what is presented in this article. I will give a very brief review about the Contracting Fibonacci Spiral (CFS), but it will be nowhere near as comprehensive as the other articles.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Saturday, June 29, 2013

Politicians Should Study The Four-Year Presidential Cycle! / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Sy_Harding

The current Congress has not been winning many awards as the best and brightest. In fact, it’s been singled out for comical examples of ineptness, an ability to pass unimportant bills laden with pork, and gridlock stupidity on important issues that have repeatedly held markets and the economy hostage.

This year, unable to cobble together any kind of carefully planned strategy on fiscal policies, it simply allowed the automatic government spending cuts known as ‘sequestration’ to begin.

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InvestorEducation

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Understanding Market Cycles to Improve Stock Market Trading / InvestorEducation / Cycles Analysis

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

A cycle is a chain of events that repeats over time. The outcome might not be the same each time but the characteristics are quite similar. Take for example the four season weather. Each year we have spring, summer, autumn and winter. After winter we have spring again and the cycle of weather will begin anew itself again. However this year’s summer will not be the same as last summer as the temperature varies every year.

Cycle frequencies can both be short and long, it can last from minutes until thousands of years. Understanding long term cycles in stock market helps you determine the overall market trend and similarly short term cycles helps you determine your timing in the entry and exit points in the stock market. The following chart shows some short and long term cycles.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Stock Market 4-year Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson



Prior to last week’s detour to discuss the gold market my April commentaries have been about Lindsay’s long cycle and how that matches what we all normally think of as secular bull and bear markets. The second commentary in this series discussed finding the high in the current long cycle and the conclusion was that a high should be found between March and September of this year. Before going any further with Lindsay I want to spend this week to see if we can confirm this forecast using another common cycle approach (non-Lindsay), the four-year cycle. Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

The Next Great War and the 24-Year Stock Market Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

The threat of war against the United States is making headlines and roiling investors' nerves. While full-scale war is likely not imminent, it's something worth considering in light of where we stand in the long-term War Cycle.

North Korea has stolen the geopolitical spotlight in recent weeks after making military threats against both the U.S. and South Korea. North Korea is the target of UN sanctions in response to a nuclear weapons test performed by the country in February. In reference to the test a spokesman for North Korea's Foreign Ministry declared the nation has a right to initiate "a preemptive nuclear attack to destroy the strongholds of the aggressors."

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 09, 2013

Stock Market Long Cycle- Part II / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

In last week's Commentary I showed how Lindsay's long cycle divided the historical chart of the Dow into what we normally refer to as secular bull and bear markets and noted how closely related each cycle was in its time duration. I also pointed out how the cycle lows Lindsay identified were somewhat different than what other analysts use but that he did so using very specific, rules-based methods to identify those cycle lows rather than just "eye-balling" a chart. These rules are explained in the book An Aid to Timing. Using this approach enables us to forecast the low of the current secular bear market (2023).

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 02, 2013

Stock Market Long Cycles / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

Chances are you have seen a long-term chart of the Dow annotated as the chart below has been. The red hash marks designate secular bull and bear markets. But if you look closely, you may notice one significant difference from similar charts; the first secular market begins in 1921 and not in 1932 as is often shown.

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Economics

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Has the Fed Killed the Kress Economic Cycle? / Economics / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Some have called it the Age of the Central Bank. Record monetary stimulus interventions in recent years have propelled the stock market to levels not seen since the 2008 credit crash. By whatever name you call it, central bank intervention has altered the investment and economic landscapes.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Understanding Fractal Waves and Time Warp, MAP Analysis Part 6 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Marc_Horn

The use of pitchforks as cycle, or wave forks, predicatively on a small scale was proving difficult.

Having watched wave development now for a couple of years it appeared that depending on where a wave fell on the next bigger scale it behaved differently and so I wanted to filter out the noise and went back to the biggest scale in the hope of finding better fork combinations and better understanding wave characteristics.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 02, 2012

Kondratieff, Solar Cycles and Markets / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: John_Hampson

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKondratieff was a Russian economist who argued that there was a long sine wave cycle in the economy lasting around 60 years broken down into 4 seasons each lasting around 15 years. There proposed reason for the cycle is…. other cycles. In other words, cycles of demographics, credit cycles, capital investment cycles and more, generate these long repetitions over time. Clearly that’s slightly unsatisfactory, unless we can explain the cycles of the source phenomena. Today, I am going to argue that Kondratieff cycling actually reflects solar cycling.

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InvestorEducation

Sunday, September 30, 2012

The Stock Market and Standard Time Spans / InvestorEducation / Cycles Analysis

By: Submissions

Ed Carlson writes: One of the great gifts left to us by twentieth-century technician, George Lindsay, was his identification and categorization of what he called the standard time spans. He traced these time spans back to 1798 and found they occurred over and over again throughout time. They became an integral part of his methodology. Those time spans play an important role in telling us that the current bull market is about to end (or has ended already).

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 13, 2012

Euro Zone Crisis Vs the Stock Market 4 Year Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInvestors are worried that this summer will witness a repeat of the summer debacles of 2010 and 2011. The stock market has itself vulnerable to negative news from overseas as well as earnings disappointments. Is the market’s recent behavior a portent of worse things to come? In this commentary we’ll try and determine whether the market will fulfill the bears’ expectations or disappoint them.


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Stock-Markets

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Stock Market Cycles Indicate Downtrend Incomplete / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The S&P 500's 20 & 40 day cycle lows are due May 17-18, which pretty much means any time now. In view of today's strength, was yesterday's low THE CYCLE LOW? Or is this up-move a head fake ahead of another plunge in the indices into Thursday & Friday, or perhaps into next Monday or Tuesday (in the event of a late cycle low)?

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Morphic Fields and Stock Market Cycles / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: David_Knox_Barker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDan Brown popularized the Institute of Noetic Sciences (IONS) in the novel The Lost Symbol. IONS is in fact a real research organization. The mission of IONS includes the rather unique goal of supporting individual and collective transformation through consciousness research, with an end toward maximizing human potential. Granted, this is a rather lofty and somewhat subjective sounding agenda and you are likely skeptical of the application of research going on at IONS to the real world.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Stock Market, The Collapse of Wall Cycle #6 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: David_Knox_Barker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe late market analyst PQ Wall put forward a rather bold proposal concerning the regular business cycle, which is also known as the Kitchin cycle. Wall concluded that every business cycle subdivides into three sets of three smaller cycles, for nine total cycles. Based on PQ's contribution to market cycle research, this cycle is known as the Wall cycle. The Wall cycle ideally runs about 142 days in length, just over 20-weeks, but they often run shorter and longer than this ideal length in Fibonacci ratios of their ideal length.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 07, 2011

Long-term Cycles vs. Short-term Market Potential / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA reader has asked the following question, which addresses a problem confronting many investors right now: 
 
“I always appreciate the Kress Cycle analysis. Yet, I must say that I am confused. For quite some time, you have talked about the ‘hard down’ phase and the topping of most of the important cycles that was supposed to be taking place now through 2013/2014. And yet, now it seems the [weekly] cycles are calling for a rally through the end of the year.  The Elliott Wave folks have been talking that the sky is about to fall in as well and yet there is great divergence in that camp with some still calling for that while others say that it may now have been pushed into 2012.  I keep looking for a retest of the bottoms that holds at which point I would pick up more shares, but so far, no retest has occurred.” 
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Stock-Markets

Saturday, September 24, 2011

The Perfect Storm in a Kondratieff Long Wave Winter / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: David_Knox_Barker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCrashing global stock markets, debt defaults, overproduction, falling prices, tumbling interest rates, global debt deleveraging, and the clear necessity for austerity, they are all classic long wave forces now in full tilt, producing the perfect storm in a Kondratieff long wave winter. Only long wave theory explains the economic and financial events now unfolding daily in the global economy and financial markets.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 23, 2011

Crisis High 2011 and the Next Market Credit Crash / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe year 2011 is in many ways a Year of Destiny. The year-to-date has seen revolutions in the mid East, natural disasters in the U.S. and globally, a debt crisis in Europe and the potential of another economic recession in the U.S. On the financial front the year 2011 has also brought on the beginnings of a new bear market which should carry us into the fateful year 2014 when the dominant long-term 120-year cycle bottoms.

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sitenews

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Stock Market 6 Year Cycle Peak is Near / sitenews / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn just a few weeks the Kress 6-year cycle will peak. What transpires in the financial market in the weeks and months following this important event will be partly determined by the reactive policies of the central bank. But in the longer-term scheme of things, even the Fed is powerless to stop the events that will increase in intensity beginning next year and into the year 2014.

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Economics

Monday, June 13, 2011

Kress Cycle Economic Tsunami / Economics / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleForgotten in the avalanche of economic headlines in recent weeks is the fact that the housing market hit a new low. In the latest reporting month the national housing index hit a new low, falling below the previous low from April 2009. This should be prompting a nationwide debate in the press as to whether a new down leg in the housing market lies ahead. Instead, all we hear is crickets.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 09, 2011

S&P Stock Market Cycle Points Lower / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Today is day # 59 within my 70-75 day S&P 500 cycle. This means that the cycle is 79%-84% complete (from its prior low on March 16), and also means that it is in its final 15%-20% (down hard) period ahead of its anticipated low/bottoming timefame in and around the end of June-early July (June 27-July 6).

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 28, 2011

The Stock Market Coming 6-year Cycle Peak / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe year 2011 to date has seen its share of ups and downs in the financial market, yet nothing like the volatility of 2010 has made its appearance. With an important long-term yearly cycle scheduled to peak in just a few months, this would be a good time to look ahead as we try to discern what the balance of the year will bring.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 20, 2011

Stock Market S&P500 Cycle Analysis Update / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: readtheticker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat leads, technicals or fundamentals? Does a price chart discount all fundamentals? These debates rage on, but I can say with the utmost accuracy that cycles are great for predicting in the next explosion of activity. A rally or a sell off, no matter cycles have an uncanny knack of being on the money when either is in the infant stages.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 08, 2011

Tracking Stock Market Cycles in Search of the Business Cycle Top in 2011 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: David_Knox_Barker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the contributions to market cycle analysis by the late financial analyst PQ Wall was the discovery that there are nine dynamic market cycles in every business cycle. This cycle is widely known as the 20-week cycle. Investors and traders have been aware of this cycle for decades, although its exact length has been a point of disagreement. If there actually are nine cycles in a business cycle, it is a remarkable and important discovery, and has major implications for investors and traders seeking to understand current market action, and identify the market top expected in 2011.  

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 06, 2011

Stock Market Investing with Cycle and Bartels Theory / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: readtheticker

A stock price time series wiggles by nature. These wiggles may or may not be in tune. If they are in tune their common frequency can be called a 'cycle'. To determine the cycle period we can do several measures.

Eyeballs: Viewing the chart for common distance between highs and lows.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 04, 2011

Stock Market Cycle Review, Don't Tell the Retail Investor, but.. / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: readtheticker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn Richard Wyckoff writings he suggest that the retail investor is always the last in, they tend to buy at the tops and sell at the bottoms. We dont tell them, just between you and me, we are closer to a top than a bottom. I recently saw dshort.com QRAtio market valuation of stocks and it also suggest that stocks are handsomely priced. Lets review some cycles to find if we concur.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Stock Market Cycles Looking for a Peak! / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Jim_Curry

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSince the Summer of 2010, the various U.S. stock indices have garnered an impressive run, pushing up some 32% from our last major bottom with the 9 and 18-month cycles.

The current upward move was anticipated, with the 180-day (i.e., 9-month) cycle confirming various upside targets along the way. In terms of cyclic price projections, back in September this 180-day cycle had confirmed an initial upside target to the 1187.09 - 1226.23 region for the SPX, which was satisfied on 10/21/10.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 21, 2011

Commodity and Financial Markets Cycles Analysis / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: readtheticker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHugh Hendry of Eclectica Asset Management and Gary Shilling of A Gary Shilling Company are bearish on China, and the world. We must pay respect to both of these market players as they have had an abundance of correct market calls in the past. Their opinions are contrarian, so for trends to change, major cycles must be ready to roll over. Lets review a few...

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Schumpeter vs. Wall and the Business Cycle Count in the Long Wave / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: David_Knox_Barker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJoseph Schumpeter was a Harvard economist and president of the Econometric Society (1940-41). He was author of the two-volume tome Business Cycles (McGraw-Hill 1939). Schumpeter’s cycle research is of particular interest because he was one of the first to attempt to integrate sociological understanding into economic trends. He also presented an integrated approach to cycles that presented the Kondratieff long wave as a larger scale of the smaller cycles. In Business Cycles, he introduced a theoretical model for how all the various cycles fit together.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, December 05, 2010

Stock Market Cycles, Virtuous Circles and Trillions of Dollars / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: David_Knox_Barker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe op-ed in the Washington Post a few weeks back by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke contained a few interesting revelations. Bernanke came clean on what he is doing, or at least trying to do with the trillions of dollars he has been passing out to the world’s needy that show up with tin cup in hand on the steps of the Federal Reserve System. Of course, Uncle Sam is the neediest of them all. The job description for the Federal Reserve includes delivering both 1) price stability and 2) maximum employment. Based on this dual mandate, Bernanke appears to have concluded that the Federal Reserve’s current priority is to use quantitative easing to stamp out business and stock market cycles.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 04, 2010

Politics and Secular Stocks Bull/Bear Markets, The Fourth Turning Crisis / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Tony_Caldaro

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith the 2010 elections now history, Republicans regaining control in the House, the public is now optimistic again that change will take place. They are likely to be correct. However, the change may be from the Democratic - just pass the bills don’t read them – agenda, to a Stalemate - just vote against the bills don’t read them – agenda. Historically, this has been good for the equities market and the economy overall.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 01, 2010

Nasdaq Stock Market Not Doom & Gloom; Cyclical Investment Opportunity! / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Investmentscore.com

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUnfortunately investors as a group are slow to adapt to change, which can be a harsh and costly lesson to learn.  But where there is turmoil there is also opportunity for those who can recognize change and make that adaptation.

From 1980 to 2000 the world enjoyed expanding credit and a seemingly forever growing stock market.  By the end of the twenty year run in stocks the predictable investment environment led advisors and investors to believe in an apathetic strategy of ‘buy and hold’ and ‘forget about your investments’.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, September 27, 2010

The Global Economy and the 4-year Stock Market Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the biggest fears underscoring the financial market since the 2008 credit crisis has been global economic growth. Investors have worried that a global economic slowdown would all but derail what little economic momentum the U.S. has experienced since the recovery started in March 2009. The latest 4-year cycle bottom is just days away, as we’ve discussed in previous reports. In previous decades the 4-year cycle was mainly a U.S. equity market cycle affecting only the U.S. But in today’s reticular global economy where all the major developed and emerging economies are becoming increasingly dependent on each other, the long-term yearly cycles are becoming more fully global phenomena.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 23, 2010

A look at the Stock Market Cycles and Gold / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNow that we’re only two weeks or less away from the 4-year cycle bottom, it’s time to start thinking about the year-ahead outlook and what the coming months may bring. This year has been a rough one in patches due in no little measure to the influence to the 4-year down cycle. In previous years when the 4-year cycle has bottomed by itself it has tended to be rather mild in terms of the bottom itself (the cycle always bottoms around late September/early October) but has always created turbulence for the stock market in the months leading up to its bottom.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Scared Stupid, What Is Next For Stock Prices / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Bob_Clark

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFirst I will rant about my pet peeve  and then I will follow up on the current cyclical structure in the stock market.
 
Financial natural selection  
The bears are being cut to pieces  as stop after stop is hit, not only that but each time we surge a little higher, new pressure points prod the ones without stops to end the pain and cover as well.  Fear drives out greed in the bears and greed drives out fear in the bulls.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 10, 2010

Thinking Stock Market Cycles Not Endless Trends! / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe favorite forecasting tool of economists and investors is to extend whatever are the current conditions and recent trends in a straight line into the future. I was reminded of that by an article in this week’s Bloomberg Businessweek magazine, which began with the following;

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Four year Presidential Cycle and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: David_Urban

US equities have had a difficult time since April of this year as fears over a double dip recession, a stubbornly high unemployment rate, and the possibility of slowing corporate profit growth have weighed on the markets.  In addition, small investors are pouring money into bond funds sending yields crashing through the floor while equities are being labeled as risky investments. 

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, August 26, 2010

The Upcoming Stock Market 4-year Cycle Bottom / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMany observers have been wondering if the upcoming 4-year cycle bottom in a few weeks will exert a negative impact on stock prices when the previous 4-year cycle bottom in 2006 barely registered. You may recall that the period from August through December of 2006 saw a stellar performance from the market that left many market technicians perplexed as to why the 4-year cycle bottom left no discernible impact on stock prices at that time. Many of them tried to excuse the lack of downward bias in the broad market in the fall of ’06 by saying that the 4-year cycle would bottom later that year, despite the fact that the 4-year cycle is fixed and always bottoms around the end of the third quarter in late September/early October.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Last Stocks Bull Standing 2011 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the most important contributions made in the science of market analysis is the series of equity market rhythms known as the Kress Cycles. The one who discovered these cycles, Samuel J. “Bud” Kress, has done for cycle theory what virtually no one else been able to accomplish, namely discovering a series of inter-related “hard” cycles that are all harmonically related and which provide an accurate context from which to view the past, present and future financial and economic climate.

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Economics

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Economic Long Kondratieff Wave Master Interview Part 2 / Economics / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Knox Barker is one of the leading authorities on the economic long wave, otherwise known as the Kondratieff Wave (a.k.a. “K Wave”). Barker has had an impressive career both as a financial market writer and long wave analyst, as well as being an entrepreneur in the field of emerging nanotechnology. Back in the late 1980s and ‘90s, Barker was known for his insightful and accurate views on the U.S. economy and financial markets via his “K Wave Report” newsletter.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Tracking Stock Market Cycles with Long Wave Dynamics and Theory 144 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: David_Knox_Barker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the 1920s Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff discovered that international free market capitalism experiences regular boom and bust cycles, he called them long waves. Investors and traders commonly view the long wave as an obscure unproven theory, without profitable application to modern financial markets. Growing evidence suggests that such an assessment of the long wave is a costly error, for both investors and traders.

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Economics

Friday, April 09, 2010

Economic Long Kondratieff Wave Master Interview / Economics / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Knox Barker is one of the leading authorities on the economic long wave, otherwise known as the Kondratieff Wave (a.k.a. “K Wave”). Barker has had an impressive career both as a financial market writer and long wave analyst, as well as being an entrepreneur in the field of emerging nanotechnology. Back in the late 1980s and ‘90s, Barker was known for his insightful and accurate views on the U.S. economy and financial markets via his “K Wave Report” newsletter.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 01, 2010

The Long Wave (aka The K Wave) “Jubilee” Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: David_Knox_Barker

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA Special Update for Market Oracle Readers
Announcing the Updated and Expanded edition of The K Wave (1995) as Jubilee on Wall Street (2009)

The long wave debate rages on. Meanwhile, the global debt berg, the chief product of crony state capitalism, has begun to block the profligate paths of listing ships of state. The confident captains of crony state capitalism are at the helm, sailing into the foggy financial abyss of cascading sovereign debt defaults. The growing black hole of sovereign debt threatens to pull the global economy into its collapsing vortex, the quintessential black swan event. Coming out the other side of the black hole of collapsing debt beyond 2012, we suspect the world will be a very different place. A new golden age will dawn.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 18, 2010

What the Stock Market Cycles are Saying Now!! / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Jim_Curry

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSince my last article back in February, I have received a number of emails asking me for an update on the current cyclic position of the markets. While I have to reserve the most up-to-date analysis for our subscribers, in this article I am pleased to offer up my detailed comments on the current U.S. stocks indexes, and also on their relationship with the various cycles that I track.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 08, 2010

Stock Market S&P 500 Down Trend Cycle In Firm Force / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Jim_Curry

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. stock markets have taken a dive since mid-January, where the various indexes were each in the process of going over larger cyclical peaks. That topping action was then favored to give way to a sharp correction into the month of March - then to be on the lookout for technical signs of the next mid-term low.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Stock Market Trend Tracking the 45 Day Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Jim_Curry

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThrough my outlooks in recent years, I have often pointed out that the most dominant cycle in US stocks is the nominal 10-week component - which, at the present time, has a current 'expression' of 45 trading days from trough-to-trough.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, December 31, 2009

Stock Market Cycle Target Met, Indexes Short Term Toppy / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Jim_Curry

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

In my prior article (December 2, 2009) I noted that the low that was registered in early-November was the confirmed bottom for each of the 45, 90 and 180-day cycles on the SPX. With that came along the expectation that the various US stock indexes would continue to see higher highs into at January of 2010 or later.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Stock Market Indexes Confirm Strength into 2010 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Jim_Curry

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGoing back to the mid-July period of 2009, the time cycle work that I track had confirmed the 07/08/09 low as a combination bottom with the 45 and 90-day cycles. Using a statistical analysis of the larger 90-day component, the probabilities favored that this particular cycle would not see it's following peak made prior to the late-September or early-October period - and thus the assumption was that the SPX was headed toward the low-1100 level or better into October.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Stock Market Trend a Tale of Three Cycles / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Bob_Clark

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHas the market made a major low that will last for years, or are new lows in the cards, lets take a look.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, November 08, 2009

Stock Market Trending Towards Mid November Cycle Low / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurrent Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2014. This would imply that much lower prices lie ahead. This will not be a straight-down decline, but will consist of a series of intermediate-term rallies and declines until we have reached the low point.

SPX: Intermediate trend - Signals for an intermediate top continue to be elusive. The top of 1100, as expected, was only that of a short-term trend which may already have bottomed. The rally from the 1030 low is only a temporary move which is near its end and should be followed by a test of the low, at a minimum.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 06, 2009

S&P Stock Market Rally To Fail, Lower Lows Ahead / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Jim_Curry

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a prior article (10/22/09), I discussed several key mid-term cycles that were turning down into the mid-November time period - which would ideally set the S&P 500 up for it's largest correction seen since coming off the March, 2009 bottom. Since that time, the SPX has seen a sharp decline from the 1101.36 swing high to the 1029.38 low, seen in Monday's trading session.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 26, 2009

Stock Market Fun, Pi, Phi and Armstrong Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Forkoholic_Serge

Fun with market dates! I was reading Marty Armstrong today and decided to play with his 8.6 year cycle—3141 days to be exact.

Lets start our count from October 11th 2007 top.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 24, 2009

A Brief Update on Equities and Gold / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bullish Dow theory trend change that occurred in association with the advance out of the March 2009 low still remains intact. Cyclically, the advance out of the March low also still remains intact. Intermediate-term, equities are overbought and I do see weakness on the horizon. The key to this materializing will be the downturn of my intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 23, 2009

Cycles Impact on Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: HRA_Advisory

Mayan Indian elder Apolinario Chile Pixtun has restated his belief that the world is not going to end in 2012. Or more precisely, that his beliefs don’t suggest the world should end despite it being the end of a major cycle in the Mayan calendar.  According to China Daily, he is even more emphatic that he’s tired of being asked about it.  2012 is the end of a 5126 year cycle (end of the 13th of 13 Baktun).  It also ends a 26800 year cycle that may relate to the Earth’s wobble, which is useful for gauging the drift of seasonal climate changes.  China Daily also briefly mentions predictions by 16th century (Christian calendar) French herbalist Nostradamus that is being combined with the Mayan cycles to create buzz for a spate of movies and TV specials.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Stock Market Cycles Heading South / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Jim_Curry

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSo far, in 2009, the stock indexes have seen two firm corrections. The first was a 29% drop (basis SPX CASH) from the 01/06/09 high to the 03/06/09 bottom - with the second being the 9% decline from the 6/11/09 high to the 07/08/09 low.

Are you ready for number three?

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Economics

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Repeating Generational Cycles Rhyming Into the Fourth Turning / Economics / Cycles Analysis

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week for your Outside the Box reading pleasure I am pleased to offer you the beginning of a very intriguing interview with Neil Howe he did with my friend David Galland at Casey Research. I think Neil is one of the premier forward looking thinkers of our time. His book The Fourth Turning is one of the more important books of the last two decades. 12 years ago, he and the late Richard Strauss basically outlined the psycho-social dynamics of our current time and his predictions have been uncannily accurate.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Stock Market Cycles and the Big Picture  / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI have recently received a few e-mails asking about cycles and their application to the market.  So, in today’s wrap up I will attempt to present a brief and very simplified explanation of how cycles can be used as a very powerful technical tool once they are understood.   I will then apply this simplified cyclical concept to the market.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Gold, Stocks. Financial Crash Anniversary and the 10-year Cycle Peak / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTalk is now circulating in financial quarters of a new “mini-bubble” in the making. Apparently the unbounded rise in the stock market is reviving fears of another collapse like the one suffered last year.

Another reason that the “hated rally” has sparked fears is that we’re about a year removed from the final “hard down” phase of last year’s 6-year cycle collapse. September 2008 witnessed the financial markets crater and the intensity of last year’s fear was unmatched in our lifetime. Not even the 1972-74 bear market, which was the worst since the Great Depression, witnessed a comparable level of fear.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 23, 2009

The Power of the 10-year Stock Market Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHere we are again approaching another 10-year cycle peak. The last such peak was in 1999 while the most recent 10-year cycle bottom was in 2004. We wrote extensively on both episodes at the time and the 10-year cycle is one of our favorites. It’s what I like to call the “slam dunk” cycle since among all the yearly Kress cycles, the 10-year cycle at its peak and bottom phase can almost always be used for profitable trading/investing almost by itself.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 27, 2009

Stock Market Head and Shoulders Pattern Failure / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe dangers of drinking from the horse trough - One of the most talked about themes of the past few weeks was the supposedly bearish “head and shoulders” pattern in the daily chart of the S&P 500 Index. The financial press drew investors’ attention to this pattern in the most alarmist tones they could muster. A plethora of market technicians were trotted out each day to remind one and all that this “H&S top” was a precursor of a major decline, if not an outright collapse.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 06, 2009

Obama and the Stock Market’s Presidential Cycle Carnival Ride / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Frank_Holmes

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe probably don’t have to tell you that being in the stock market in 2009 has been like spending six months on Coney Island’s Cyclone roller coaster—turn by turn a terrifying and exhilarating ride.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 22, 2009

Stock Market History Repeats - Rhyming And Reason / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Captain_Hook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWill history repeat in terms of the widely followed stock market comparisons that many now put against present conditions. As you may know, often, when a system that is used to forecast financial markets becomes too popular, changes in outcomes occur despite previously tight correlations. And it could be argued we are at such a juncture now, as new services are cropping up everywhere in this regard. Still however, this does not preclude similarities being maintained, as despite speculator-induced differences that may be present today, these exercises are measurements in human behavioral extremes, which history has taught us generally tend to be bounded by similar measures.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

S&P 500 Index 17 Week Trading Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: INO

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHere's a key video to look at this week. I was just looking at the S&P 500 and I noticed a very pronounced cycle in this market that I want to share with you.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 11, 2009

Making Profits From Stock, Forex and Bond Market Trading Cycles / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Uncommon_Wisdom

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLarry Edelson writes: These days, it seems like many investors have forgotten that it’s ok to try and make some money. Almost everyone I know is playing it ultra safe instead. But with interest rates so low, you’re making less than 1 percent a year on your savings!

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Commodities

Friday, April 17, 2009

Stocks and Commodities Markets Secular and Cyclical Trend Indicators / Commodities / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs we should all remember, in early 2008, commodities were on fire as they moved up into their parabolic tops.   Of late we have seen a rebound and based on the e-mails that I’ve been receiving, the crowd is once again turning bullish.    Personally, my analysis tells me that commodities are now entering another very critical juncture and how they handle this test will set the stage for months to come.   

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 07, 2009

Brief Overview of Stock Market Cycles / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOf late, I have received a few e-mails about cycles and the ways in which I use them. I've learned that in many incidences it seems that when I talk about cycles many conjure up images of some sort of black magic, voodoo, chicken bones and the like. However, I can assure you that this is not the case and in this article I'll show you why. Cyclical analysis is simply a method of trend identification that allows one to look at various trends of like degree. In my case, I then data-mine these trends in an effort to find common traits.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Interview With the Kress Stock Market Cycle Master, Part2 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI have long been an admirer of the stock market cycle analysis of one Samuel J. “Bud” Kress, proprietor of SJK Capital and publisher of the cycle-based SineScope advisory. During my 10 year acquaintance with Mr. Kress, I’ve been privileged to learn of his discovery of a remarkable series of weekly and yearly cycles. These cycles (Kress Cycles as I’ve taken to calling them) have an amazing correlation to each other and are based on the Fibonacci sequence. More importantly, they have accurately identified the major turning points in the financial markets and the economy over the last several years. The Kress Cycles are predicting a major period of change ahead for the U.S. stock market and economy, particularly between the years 2010-2014.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Stock Market Forecast Current and for Next 30 Years / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Weekly_Wizards

WHEN WILL THE MARKET BOTTOM?  Following you will find Daniel Ferrera's cycle forecast of the S&P 500 for the next 30 years, out to 2036, as well as a projection of an expected rally for the next 3 weeks.  Read on for details...

FERRERA S&P 500 CYCLE FORECAST TO 2036

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 05, 2008

Stock Market Approaching Significant Low for a Counter-trend Rally / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurrent Position of the Market

Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over earlier than anticipated and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2012-2014.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 10, 2008

An Interview With the Kress Stock Market Cycle Master / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI have long been an admirer of the stock market cycle analysis of one Samuel J. “Bud” Kress, proprietor of SJK Capital and publisher of the cycle-based SineScope advisory. Kress has been in the equity market business all his adult life, either on Wall Street or in more recent years as an independent analyst/trader. If the Kress name seems familiar to you it's probably because you remember the chain of S.H. Kress & Co. “five and dime” stores that once dotted the country. The store's founder, Samuel H. Kress, was Bud's grandfather.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, June 01, 2008

An Important Stock Market Juncture Approaches / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe definition of a bull or bear market can differ from person to person depending upon their particular discipline. My definition is based on the original works of the great Dow theorists, Charles H. Dow, William Peter Hamilton and Robert Rhea. When the Industrials moved above their 2000 high and was confirmed by the Transports a couple of months later in February 2007, I wrote then in an article that “things had changed.” I stated at that time that this was not signaling the dawn of a new bull market, but rather, we were still operating within the context of the long-term bull market that began in 1974. You can read more about this at www.cyclesman.com/Articles.htm and my latest article on this topic is titled Bull and Bear Market Relationships . Another related article is titled, The Dow Theory… Did it Fail? Both of these articles can be found at the link above.

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Politics

Friday, May 30, 2008

The Next American Revolution and Long-term Stock Market Cycles / Politics / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the aftermath of the credit crisis, real estate deflation and stock market correction, there has been a startling rise in the talk of revolution among many Internet chat rooms and message boards.

This is no idle chit-chat, mind you. It's part of a serious discussion about the alarming possibility of a militant uprising should the economic situation deteriorate further. “Typical bombast from the lunatic fringe,” is how some have responded to the sudden appearance of revolutionary furor. In view of the market cycles, however, the longer-term implications behind this kind of talk can't be so easily dismissed.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 19, 2008

Stock Market Cyclic Turning Points– Current Market Outlook / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Jim_Curry

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShort-term Outlook
For the short-term, a minor cycle up was due to take the various indexes higher into approximately May 19 th , which was plus or minus a day in either direction. Once the next minor cycle peak is complete, then a retrace lower should be seen into around May 26 th , which is also plus or minus a day in either direction (chart 1). At minimum, that drop should take the index back to or below it's 9-day moving average, however there is still the potential that a larger drop could be seen, simply again based upon the extended position of the 45-day cycle. However, for this 45-day component to actually confirm a peak in place, an intraday push below the 1384.01 figure would now be needed, the new ‘reversal point' for this cycle.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 24, 2008

Stock Market In the Process of Making Important Low / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurrent Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could also play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.

SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in the process of ending and may already have ended.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 14, 2008

Stock Market Indicators Becoming Bullish / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurrent position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.

SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in process.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Stock Market Cycle Investment Management and the Business Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Steve_Selengut


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhatever happened to the Stock Market Cycle; the Interest Rate Cycle; Baby Jane? How did Wall Street get away with pushing these facts of financial life down the basement stairs? Most investors, I'm beginning to believe, and all financial advisors, media representatives, and market gurus have abandoned these fascinating curves for the comfort of a straight-edged twelve-month playing field... simple, yes; realistic, not. I have to wonder if things would be different with a more investor-friendly tax-code, but that would be far less lucrative for The Wizards...

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 17, 2007

Stock Markets Consolidating Towards a Cycle Bottom by Christmas / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurrent Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - The 12-yr cycle is nearing its mid-point and some of its dominant components may already be restraining the bullish effect of the 4.5-yr cycle. 2008 should see a period of correction into the late summer or Fall, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-10.

SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in process.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 19, 2007

Stock Market Correction Since October Appears to be Ending / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurrent Position of the Market

SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-yr cycle is nearing its mid-point and some of its dominant components may already be restraining the bullish effect of the 4.5-yr cycle. 2008 should see a period of intermediate term consolidation into the late summer or Fall, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.

SPX: Intermediate Trend - The correction to the intermediate-term trend which has been ongoing since 10/11 appears to be in the process of ending.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 20, 2007

The Fed, The Discount Interest Rate and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed's action to either raise or lower rates has become a major focal point for the markets and in light of the fact that we have another Fed meeting coming up at the end of the month, I felt that addressing this subject again is warranted. Based upon the chart that I first presented here back in September that we have entered into an environment in which further rate cutes should be expected. I have updated this chart below.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, September 23, 2007

Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis 23rd September 2007 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market.

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-yr cycle is approaching its mid-point and some of its dominant components which are topping should soon restrain the bullish effect of the 4.5-yr cycle which has just made its low and is now in an uptrend. This could lead to another period of consolidation in 2008 with an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.

SPX: Intermediate Trend - With the 4.5-yr cycle making its low in August, the intermediate-term trend is now up.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Stock Market Turns - Short-Term Outlook / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Jim_Curry

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurrent SPX Index Positions:
Mid-term (6-8 weeks) = BULLISH; 40% long @1448.96
Short-term (1 day-3 weeks) = NEUTRAL

From previous outlook: “we may be able to make some assumptions on what lies ahead for the next few days. First, we do have the outstanding upside target to 1491 SPX CASH or higher for the 10-day cycle, which does favor a higher high still out there for the short-term. Secondly, the current 10 and 20 day up phase that began off of last Monday's bottom would have the best ‘look' for a higher high above 1496.40 to materialize.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, September 09, 2007

Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis 9th Setember 2007 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-yr cycle is still in its up-phase but, as we approach its mid-point, some of its dominant components which are topping will restrain the bullish effect of the 4.5-yr cycle which is now in an uptrend, and this could lead to another correction in 2008.

SPX: Intermediate Trend - Climactic action followed by an immediate reversal suggests that the 4.5-yr cycle has bottomed but some additional consolidation may be required before new highs are made.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 27, 2007

Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis 27th August 2007 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

Current Position of the Market.

SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-yr cycle is still in its up-phase but, as we approach its mid-point, some of its dominant components are topping and could lead to another correction in 2008.

SPX: Intermediate Trend - Climactic action followed by an immediate reversal suggests that the 4.5-yr cycle has bottomed, but the low will need to be tested.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, August 25, 2007

The Stock Market Battle Rages as the Chickens come Home to Roost / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

The battle between the natural forces of the market and the desire to prevent these natural forces from occurring has now moved to a new level. Up until recently, these efforts were more subtle and more traditional. We are now seeing an outright campaign to keep the market afloat. As I see it, these efforts do not instill confidence, but rather go to show just how desperate the situation with the market truly is.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 12, 2007

Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis 12th August 2007 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market.

SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-year cycle is still in its up-phase but, as we approach its midpoint, some of its dominant components are topping and could lead to a severe correction in 2008.

SPX: Intermediate Trend - The intermediate trend which started at 1555 on 7/16 should soon come to an end as the 4.5-yr cycle reverses.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determines the course of longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 29, 2007

Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis 29th July 2007 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

A 3-dimensional approach to technical analysis
Cycles - Breadth - Price projections

Current Position of the Market.

SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-year cycle is still in its up-phase but, as we approach its mid-point some of its dominant components are topping and could lead to a severe correction over the next few months.

SPX: Intermediate Trend - An intermediate trend is underway and is expected to continue for another few weeks.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determines the course of longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, July 28, 2007

The Four Year Stock Market Cycle Statistics Continue to Suggest that this Low Lies Ahead / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

It certainly seems that the controversy surrounding the 4-year cycle is still alive and well and has been ever since the June/July 2006 low. I have studied many of the works by Edward Dewey, J. M Hurst, N.D. Kondratieff, Walter Bressert, and numerous other writings through what used to be the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. The consensus among credible cycles analysts is that cycles are not rigid in nature, but that they are somewhat flexible in their ebb and flow.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 15, 2007

Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis 15th July 2007 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

A 3-dimensional approach to technical analysis
Cycles - Breadth - Price projections

Current Position of the Market.

SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-year cycle is still in its up-phase but, as we approach its mid-point some of its dominant components are topping and could lead to a severe correction over the next few months.

SPX: Intermediate Trend - The intermediate trend made its low on 6/26 and has already produced a rally to an all time high. But internals are weak and it is not clear how sustained this move will be.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, July 07, 2007

Update Four Year Stock Market Cycle - The Dow Holding on but Overdone / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

Since the inception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896 there has been a long-term ebb and flow in the stock market known by many as the 4-year cycle. There have been 27 such completed 4-year cycles with an average duration of 47.04 months. I have identified specific common elements and markers that have occurred at all previous 4-year cycle tops and bottoms. Given that none of these common elements or markers have been seen since the 2002 4-year cycle low, the evidence continues to suggest that the market has not made a 4-year cycle top or bottom since the 2002 low. This in turn means that we are now seeing one of the longest 4-year cycles in stock market history. In the past, even the longest 4-year cycle advances ultimately ended with a decline into a low that was sufficient enough to trigger the same markers of all other 4-year cycle tops and bottoms.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 01, 2007

Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis 1st July 2007 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market.

SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-year cycle is still in its up-phase but, as we approach its mid-point some of its dominant components are topping and could lead to a severe correction over the next few months.

SPX: Intermediate Trend - Intermediate cycles are causing a consolidation/correction in the uptrend which could last a few more weeks.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 21, 2007

Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis 21st May 2007 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

A 3-dimensional approach to technical analysis
Cycles - Breadth - Price projections

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-year cycle is still in its up-phase but, as we approach its mid-point some of its dominant components are topping and could lead to a severe correction over the next few months.

SPX: Intermediate Trend - With the price reaching the preferred target area, the rally from 3/14 should be coming to an end.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

More Questions On the 4-Year Stock Market Cycle That Refuses To Be / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

Where's the 4-year cycle low? Did it bottom last summer? Could it have bottomed this past March? What would it mean if the Dow goes to 15,000? Hasn't this advance proven that cycles are no longer relevant? Doesn't it appear that history is no longer relevant? I continue receiving e-mail on these questions and in today's WrapUp I want to address these topics.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 07, 2007

Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis 7th May 2007 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

A 3-dimensional approach to technical analysis
Cycles - Breadth - Price projections

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-year and 10-year cycles are still in their up-phases but their influence will be reduced in the weeks ahead as intermediate and long term cycles bear down into year-end.

SPX: Intermediate Trend - With the price reaching the preferred target area, the rally from 3/14 should be coming to an end.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 28, 2007

US Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Report 29th April 2007 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

A 3-dimensional approach to technical analysis
Cycles - Breadth - Price projections

A summary of the market position:
Long-term trend : up
Intermediate trend: up
Short-term
: consolidating.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 23, 2007

US Stock Market Cycle Turning Points / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

A 3-dimensional approach to technical analysis
Cycles - Breadth - Price projections

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again, and again, and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law... The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." -- Mark Twain

Current Position of the Market.
SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-year and 10-year cycles are still in their up-phases but their influence will be reduced in the weeks ahead as intermediate and long term cycles bear down into year-end.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 21, 2007

The 4-year Stock Market Cycle that Refuses To Be / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

Both the Industrials and the Transports pushed into all time new territory this week. As a result it is indisputable that the advance is still alive. But, I still do not believe that the advance is well. Given the relentless resilience of the market, there are times that even I question the data surrounding the 4-year cycle. However, when I remove the emotion and simply look at the raw data it continues to suggest that there is still an unwinding into the 4-year cycle low somewhere ahead.

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InvestorEducation

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Overview of Cycles Analysis and a Brief Application to Crude Oil / InvestorEducation / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

From a cyclical perspective, the trend is defined by the direction of the cycle of the next larger degree. This means that from a cyclical perspective we work in many different dimensions. The key is to isolate and study each cycle of each dimension so that the direction and expectation of these cycles can be known. The identification of these cycle lows is definitely outside of the scope of this brief overview, as it would take volumes of material to do this subject justice.

I use a number of indicators to aid in identifying cycle tops and bottoms, but the best indicator I have found for this is my Cycle Turn Indicator. Anyway, all I want to do here is simply present the concept of using cycle highs and lows of various degrees to show you the concept of how we can work in the various dimensions to identify important turn points.

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Housing-Market

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

The US Housing Market 4 Year Cycle – More Falls Expected / Housing-Market / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

It seems that of late that a major topic being covered by the mainstream media is “sub-prime” mortgages and the related scare of the downstream impact. Well, the charts warned of problems in the home building sector a year and a half ago. In fact, I first reported in October 2005 that the charts were showing signs of trouble for the housing market. In the February 2006 I also reported on the further technical problems and developments for the housing sector.

Then, in the May 19, 2006 I followed up again on the housing sector and reported that the evidence from the intermediate-term charts had continued to evolved to the point that the longer-term trend had topped. I went on to give very specific cyclical high and low points to watch for as continued confirmation of my thesis. My point here being, the charts were right and the mainstream media once again failed to warn and even refused to acknowledge a housing bubble. That is until now when the problem becomes obvious.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 11, 2007

Stock Market 4 Year Cycle Low - Next Leg of the Downtrend Expected / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

As the market advanced up out of the June/July 2006 low, many began proclaiming those lows as having marked the 4-year cycle low. With the last obvious 4-year cycle low having occurred on October 10, 2002 at 7,197.49 and when the October 2006 low that most were expecting did not occur, most pointed at the June/July lows as having marked the 4-year cycle low. I can understand why on the surface most people would have thought this. But, that was the easy answer for the market not making the low in October that so many were expecting.

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InvestorEducation

Monday, February 12, 2007

Dow Theory - How the Transports Confirms the Dow Jones Breakouts / InvestorEducation / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

In light of the recent rally in the Transports I thought that it would be appropriate to discuss the Dow theory and this recent move by the Transports. According to Dow theory the confirmation of a trend occurs when both averages better their previous Secondary high or low point, depending on whether or not the trend is up or down. Without going into exactly how you define a Secondary high or low point let me just say that the May 2006 highs marked the last Secondary high in both averages.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 28, 2007

Dow Jones Stock Market Cycle Analysis - Trend Still Up, Still Positive, But Caution is Advised / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

The positive for the market is obviously that it continues to move higher and higher as the advance out of the June/July lows remains intact. According to Dow theory, the Secondary Trend also remains intact and as I read the Dow theory I also believe that the Primary Trend is also positive. Cyclically, the longer-term trend remains positive as well. So, let me make it clear that until a confirmed downturn according to Dow theory and/or a cyclical breakdown of at least intermediate degree occurs, this advance cannot be called done.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 25, 2007

The Cycle Turn and Trend Indicator Applied to Oils and Copper / Commodities / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

If I could only have one indicator it would be the Cycle Turn Indicator. This indicator is primarily used on the intermediate-term weekly charts to tell me the current market direction and to identify intermediate-term turn points. Staying on the right side of the market really is as simple as following this indicator, which we do. The Dow theory, cyclical and statistical work is used to "look over the horizon" and to tell us what we should expect further down the road in the future. My basic philosophy is to use the Dow theory, my cyclical and statistical analysis to develop the longer-term market expectation, all the while using the very important intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator in the interim.

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InvestorEducation

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Another Look at Dow Theory and Cycles / InvestorEducation / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

I continue to receive e-mails asking about the 4-year cycle and the ongoing Dow theory non-confirmation. In order to address this topic I have decided that it would be best to simply use a piece that I wrote before.

I have virtually every scrap of material written by Charles H. Dow, William Peter Hamilton and Robert Rhea and I want to confirm that cycles are definitely not a part of the Dow theory. I'll also add that head and shoulder formations, rising wedges, symmetric triangles and other technical patterns are not a part of the Dow theory. The McClellan oscillator, stochastics, RSI nor any other oscillator, for that matter, is a part of the Dow theory. Nor is gold, the dollar, bonds or individual stock analysis a part of the Dow theory.

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InvestorEducation

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Long term Economic and Stock Market Cycles - The only cycles that really matter / InvestorEducation / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Theories of periodicity (cycles) in the stock market are as intriguing as they are controversial.  The subject of equity market cycles has been discussed at length over the past 60 years with precious little in the way of agreement among cyclists as to what exactly constitutes a cycle, let alone which cycles are key.

Unfortunately, one of the major attempts at advancing the understanding of cycle theory, namely the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, was marked by internecine strife and fell by the wayside in the mid-1990s despite the pioneering work of its founder, Edward Dewey.  In recent years, much credit must be given to Samuel “Bud” Kress for discovering the remarkable rhythms that define the series of yearly cycles that compose the K-wave long-term series.  The K-wave has been traditionally defined as a 60-year rhythm as formulated by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev. 

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InvestorEducation

Monday, January 22, 2007

Dow Theory and Cycles Analysis / InvestorEducation / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

Recently I have received e-mails asking about cycles and Dow theory. I have addressed this before, but it seems that it's now time to look at this topic again. I have virtually every scrap of material written by Charles H. Dow, William Peter Hamilton and Robert Rhea and I want to confirm that cycles are definitely not a part of the Dow theory. I'll also add that head and shoulder formations, rising wedges, symmetric triangles and other technical patterns are not a part of the Dow theory. The McClellan oscillator, stochastics, RSI nor any other oscillator for that matter is a part of the Dow theory. Gold, the dollar, bonds or individual stock analysis is not a part of the Dow theory.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 21, 2007

Stock Market Cycles Analysis - The Trend is still up, Sentiment is High, but Change is in the Wind / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

Let me begin by explaining that in my work with the markets there are really two distinctly separate pieces. First, is what I call the "over the horizon" piece. This work utilizes the Dow theory, cycles and statistical trend quantifications, all to develop probabilities as to what likely lies ahead or "over the horizon" for a given market. The second piece of my work is primarily centered around my Cycle Turn Indicator. This indicator provides us with confirmation at important turn points. So, it tells us what we should expect now and in the immediate future. All the while, I am constantly watching and monitoring the longer-term "over the horizon" work as well. Sometimes, the intermediate-term work can evolve and change the longer-term forecasts, while other times it may confirm the longer-term forecast. So, this is an act of working two ends to the middle.

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