Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, March 13, 2009
New Recovery Highs Expected in UltraShort TBT T-Bond ETF / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
My near and intermediate term work indicates strongly that the upside pivot low at 44.01 last Friday (3/06) in the ProShares Ultrashort 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (NYSE: TBT) completed the corrective period off of the 2/09 recovery rally high at 49.86. If that proves to be the case, then all of the action this week- the climb to 48.20 on Wed., followed by the pullback yest. and today- represent the start of a new upleg that should propel the TBT to new recovery highs. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Disintegrating Financial System: Haircut Time for Bond Holders / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Whitney
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." John Kenneth Galbraith
When George Soros recently said that the financial system had "effectively disintegrated", it caused quite a flap. But Soros was not exaggerating. The financial system has disintegrated. What we are experiencing now is just the fallout from that event. This is easier to understand by using an analogy. Imagine watching the demolition of a hundred-story skyscraper. After the explosives detonate and the building implodes, the chunks of debris and the shattered glass begin to fall to the ground below.
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Monday, March 09, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Short-term Bounce Continues / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market traded up last week. All you little traders out there who have long positions in the bond market, let's all say a big thank you to the Bank of England – which not only lowered their benchmark rate to a new all time low of 0.50%, but also loudly trumpeted that they will be in the market buying long term Gilts (UK Government bonds) in the not too distant future. This announcement caused a close to 50 basis point rally in the 10 year Gilts and rallies of lesser magnitude in other government bond markets. Supply will be a front page item again in the US as the Treasury will be conducting what used to be a quarterly auction cycle for the second month in a row. The market will need to deal with new supply of 3, 10 and 30 year bonds as the week unfolds. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Outlook / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market traded down last week. The market action was quite disappointing for a number of reasons. The fundamental data remains dismal and considerably weaker than consensus forecasts. Pressure on the stock markets has not eased up one bit. The S&P500 Stock Index broke key support at 800 a couple of weeks ago and it ended the month of February below the lows of last November. Needless to say stocks had a brutal 2008, a record January drop to start 2009 and then followed up with the worst February performance on record. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 02, 2009
U.S. Bond Market Performance Analysis / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Richard_Shaw
For a while after the Q4 2008 simultaneous crash of nearly all forms of assets, bonds recovered and stocks did not. However, of late, bonds are not so strong. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Obama Says Short U.S. Treasuries / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pollaro
Bank bailouts, homeowner bailouts, auto industry bailouts, and now massive stimulus packages; the Federal Government spending list goes on and on. The Federal Deficit for this fiscal year is projected by Goldman Sachs to be as high as $2.5 trillion. That's 5.5 times the fiscal 2007 Federal Deficit and 1.5 times Gross U.S. Savings. A $2.5 trillion deficit will create quite a waterfall on this graph, don't you think:Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
U.S. Treasuries on the Move / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) gapped to the upside this morning ahead of Bernanke's testimony, likely expecting some supportive news, such as the Fed intending to buy Treasury paper to foster lower mortgage rates. As of yet, longs either are disappointed in Bernanke's prepared text or are so uncertain that they are taking profits as the TLTs test prior resistance at 106.50/60. Whatever the actual reason, as long as the TLTs do not break and sustain beneath 104.80, my technical work encourages me to remain long.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 23, 2009
U.S. Bond View Positive Despite Higher than Expected Inflation / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market traded higher last week. The fundamental data remains weak and pressure on the stock markets lent renewed support for bonds. Supply remains a topic of conversation for traders as the Treasury will be auctioning close to a total of another $100 Billion 2, 5 and 7 Year Notes next week. If interest remains as solid as it was on the Quarterly refunding last week, then bonds should manage to continue to hold the support levels that were tested and held during the recent down-trade.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Treasury Bonds Trade Lower on Increasing Supply / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market traded down again last week, as the main driver appears to be the supply side of the equation. As expected, setting up for the Quarterly Treasury refunding kept a lid on the market even as the economic landscape continues to deteriorate. Traders will have to deal with $32Billion 3 Year Notes on Tuesday, $21Billion 10 Year paper on Wednesday and $14Billion 30 Year Bonds on Thursday. The key is normally in the second leg of these 3 day auctions, so if the 10 Year tranche is well distributed, that could provide a bit of relief for this market that has seen nothing but trouble during the first 5 weeks of 2009.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 02, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Puts in a Top Ahead of Treasury Auctions / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market traded down again last week, oddly competing with stocks for the “most pathetic security class” title for January. The Long Bond futures declined 10.5% from the highs on December 30. In January stocks declined 8.6% but the Bond Future was off 9.2%. In spite of the mostly pathetic (and therefore supportive for the Treasury market) fundamental data, the main theme that drove trading last week was the supply both on the Treasury and corporate front. The bond friendly Fed policy statement supported the market for about 5 minutes before it buckled sharply. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 01, 2009
United States Day of Reckoning Treasury Bond Market Collapse Underway / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: If you read just one of my Money and Markets issues this year, make sure it's this one.
You will not hear what I'm about to say from our nation's leaders. Nor will it pour forth from talking heads on Wall Street.
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Wednesday, January 28, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble About to Pop / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Frighteningly, like the rush into tech stocks, then the rush into real estate, and then the rush into commodities, the rush into U.S. government bonds has created a Treasury bubble. In a cruel twist of economic fate, passage of an aggressive Obama administration stimulus plan could further inflate that bubble - before popping it. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Foreigners Puking Up U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Oxbury_Research
New York Times: “ All the key drivers of China's Treasury purchases are disappearing — there's a waning appetite for dollars and a waning appetite for Treasuries, and that complicates the outlook for interest rates,” said Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist in the Hong Kong office of the Royal Bank of Scotland.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Bond Market Payment Rates Analysis / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Richard_Shaw
Bond rates are easy to access, but understanding what you are being paid for the components of bond rates takes a little bit of simple math to break it down. Important insights can be gained from knowing the building blocks of a rate.
Rates for key bond types are published by multiple public internet sources. You may need to go to more than one to get all the detail you want.
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Monday, January 26, 2009
Treasury Bonds 5 Years of Interest Destroyed in 6 Weeks! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Last month, investors from all over the world — spooked by the debt crisis — flocked to buy long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
They bought U.S. bonds with money earned from China's export boom. They scooped up bonds with money gleaned from the savings of millions of Japanese families … with government money … oil money … even drug money.
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Monday, January 26, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Expected to Bounce After Sharp Sell-off / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market appears to be settling down into a trading range after the sharp rally during the last 2 months of 2008. The Long Bond traded to its lowest level in nearly 2 months. My favoured scenario is that the market recovers a bit during the next 2 weeks and then it trades lower. Before that happens, traders need to deal with record size 2 and 5 Year Treasury Note auctions early in the week. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 22, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Forecast 2009 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The explosive long T-bond rally of November and December 2008 following deep U.S. interest rate cuts towards ZERO appears to have come to an end as treasury bonds broke below the most recent low. Therefore this analysis seeks to determine if the bond bubble is about to burst and how bonds could trend during the next 5 months of 2009. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Are Inflation Proof TIPS Breathtakingly Cheap? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inflation backed securities have been on a good run since November. Some still suggest that TIPS Are "Breathtakingly Cheap" . At a time when central banks are attempting to prevent deflation, the hottest investments in the government bond market are securities that protect debt holders against rising consumer prices.
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Tuesday, January 20, 2009
UltraShort TBT ETF Benefiting from U.S. Treasuries Decline / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The long end of the bond market, and the TLT's (Barclay's 20+ Year T-bond, ETF), are getting hurt today, despite a climbing US dollar. The TBT's (Proshares Ultrashort T-bond, ETF) is benefiting from the price action. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Treasury Bonds Are the Key in 2009 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
In 2008, the market that was the trigger for other markets was the currency market. The bottom in the dollar led to a peak in commodities and helped spur massive deleveraging and selling of various holdings. For certain, the increasing strength of the Yen also caused great damage to the global economy and global capital markets. There were only a handful of places to hide, free of volatility and immediate risk. Either you owned government bonds, the dollar or the yen. Gold advanced in 2008, though with extreme volatility compared to other safe-havens. Read full article... Read full article...