Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Bursting? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Captain_Hook
They've done it now. The Fed has revealed the level of panic they are in behind the scenes by cutting rates to zero and promising unbounded quantitative easing . Here, it should be noted that based on remarks from the Fed Policy Statement Tuesday, quantitative easing is now set to go beyond the bailout style monetiziations of financials that have primarily characterized re-inflation efforts under the gaze of Bernanke and Paulson so far to include just about anybody who needs ‘social assistance', which apparently includes all degrees of bad investors / speculators these days. Make a bad investment. No worries if you're an American apparently as ‘the check is in the mail'. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 05, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Primed for Inevitable Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Paul_Lamont
As Treasury Bill yields fell during the early 1930's, Treasury Bonds moved in the opposite direction . As you can see from Table 48 (also from A History of Interest Rates ), Bonds rose in yield (fell in price) during the banking crises of 1930-32. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 02, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Ripe for Explosion / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Browne
Bonds in 2009: A Tough Call - The second half of 2008 will be remembered as the era in which justifiably panicked investors fled the global equity markets and flooded into the bond markets, particularly the U.S. Treasury market. As I write this, the migration largely continues.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 29, 2008
Investment Opportunity in Municipal Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Derrick
We all know that 2008 has been a rough year for virtually all investors, and the municipal market has not been immune. Municipals, however, have weathered the storm better than most asset classes. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 29, 2008
Grossly Overbought Bond Markets Continue Chugging Higher into New Year / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market just keeps on chugging higher. Yields on the 30 year Treasury Bond decreased for an 8th consecutive week as the Long Bond future continues its unstoppable march higher. There are a couple of undercurrents that I would like to discuss heading into the New Year. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 28, 2008
ETF Bond Yields Confirm Deflation / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Richard_Shaw
The table below presents the SEC 30-day yield and the portfolio yield-to-maturity reported for most of the Barclay's iShares bond ETFs.
Monday, December 22, 2008
U.S. Treasury Bond Steamroller Keeps Chugging Higher / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market just keeps on chugging higher. Yields on the 30 year Treasury Bond decreased for a 7th consecutive weeks as the Long Bond future rallied an unprecedented 29 points since the end of October. If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it must be just another blow-off top. It is really no big deal, blow-offs have been a dime a dozen this year, so there is no reason to get too excited. I apologize for plagiarizing my own work from last week, but I just could not think of presenting it in a more appropriate manner. Heading into the year end, the signs of extreme distress remain evident in the bond market. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Bond Investors Turn Bullish on U.S. Treasuries / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Here is a headline I am laughing at: Bond Investors Turn Most Bullish on Treasuries Since February
Treasuries will appreciate over the next six months as the U.S. economy reels from its worst recession in a quarter-century, a monthly survey of Bloomberg users showed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
U.S. Fed Opts to Inflate Treasury Bond Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Dorsch
Beware - “Quantitative Easing” is Hallucinogenic - American bankers are so fearful of a replay of the 1930's Great Depression, they've finally reached the point of "No-return," – lending $30-billion to Uncle Sam at a rock-bottom interest rate of zero-percent. Demand was so great at the last auction, the Treasury could have sold four-times as many T-bills. If short-term T-bill rates go negative, frightened bankers would effectively be paying the US Treasury for the privilege of lending money to it! But remember, "The Fed can guarantee cash benefits as far out, and at whatever size you like, but we cannot guarantee their purchasing power," former Fed chief, "Easy" Al Greenspan told Congress on Feb 15, 2005.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
U.S. Treasury Bonds Soar Following Zero Interest Rates Policy / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The extraordinary near-vertical advance in the Lehman 20 Year T-bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) continues, as yield on both the 10 and 30 year Treasuries plummets. Let's notice that for the first time in what I consider to be the "blow-off" stage (since 12./12), the TLTs have gapped up, which technically suggests strongly that the price structure has entered the final phase of the incredible "parabolic" move. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
U.S. Treasury Bonds Blow-off Top? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market just keeps on chugging higher. Yields on the 30 year Treasury Bond decreased for a 6 th consecutive weeks as the Long Bond future rallied an unprecedented 23 points since the end of October. If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it must be just another blow-off top. It is really no big deal, blow-offs have been a dime a dozen this year, so there is no reason to get too excited. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 15, 2008
Any Confidence in Corporate America could send Corporate Bond Prices Higher / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Cars – from the musical group to songs about various models (Little Deuce Coupe, Pink Cadillac) to songs about the road (Route 66, King of the Road) it is little wonder the market was captivated by the death dance in Washington regarding the auto companies. When it looked as though they would crash and burn, the markets indicated a 4-5% decline coming into Friday, only a willingness by the White House and the Treasury to use money earmarked for the financial sector, did the markets turn slightly higher on the week.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 12, 2008
U.S. Bond Markets on the Edge of Collapse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: I thought I had witnessed a lot of craziness in the bond market over the past year:
• The utter obliteration of subprime mortgage bonds …
Friday, December 12, 2008
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Bubble Hits Manic Stage / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
This week marked the beginning of what I believe is the manic bubble stage in the nearly three decade long Treasury bull market. On Monday, the U.S. Department of Treasury sold $27 billion of three month bills at a discount rate of .005%. That rate is the lowest since the auction began in 1929. On Tuesday, $30 billion of four-week Treasury bills were sold at 0%! Again, the lowest yield ever recorded for that security.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Goldman Recommends Credit Default Swaps as States Face Bankruptcy / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
On November 25 I wrote State of New Jersey Is Insolvent
The state of New Jersey is insolvent. Bankrupt might be a better word. New Jersey is $60 billion in the hole on pension funding and the Governor is planning on skipping payments in a "pension payment holiday" until 2012 so as to not increase property taxes. To top it off, the ongoing plan assumptions are 8.25%. Sorry NJ, that simply is not going to happen. ....
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
The State of State Municipal Bond Funds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Richard_Shaw
Several of our clients have come to us this past week with questions and concerns about municipal bond funds.
They are concerned about recent performance, about California projected cash shortages, about many states struggling with budget deficits, about the fate of revenue bonds in the face of current economic problems; and whether the US government would bailout states the way they are bailing out banks, insurance companies, industrial “banks”, federal mortgage agencies, and automobile companies.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 08, 2008
The Great U.S. Treasury Bond Market Trap / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Captain_Hook
One of the more unusual manifestations of the financial meltdown this year has been the dollar spike, that caught a lot of traders by surprise, and was generated in part by a stampede into the percieved safety of short-expiry US Treasuries, which necessitated the purchase of US dollars. This is now arriving at its ultimate conclusion where Treasury yields have been beaten down to zero, which means that in real terms they are negative, resulting in the bizarre situation where investors are now paying the US government for the privilege of lending them money. This is clearly an untenable circumstance that cannot be expected to continue indefinitely, and it has only been occasioned by desperation, as panicked investors have sought safe haven. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 08, 2008
U.S. Treasury Bonds Reach Extreme Overbought State / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market not only held the breakout levels from a couple of weeks ago, but continued to power ahead to the lowest yields seen on long term Treasury Bonds in half a century. The US administration, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve along with authorities world wide have been desperately trying all sorts of new programs to foster the flow of credit. Thus far these programs have not seemed to work. It feels like the authorities are just throwing money, programs, bailouts at a wall and hope that something will stick. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 06, 2008
Low Interest Rates Spell Big Problems / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Schiff
Government and mainstream economists have erroneously concluded that the key to reversing the financial free fall can be found in stopping the plunge in home prices. (I would offer the corollary that the key to reducing injuries in auto accidents is to suspend the laws of inertia). But to accomplish the improbable task of re-inflating the housing bubble, the government appears ready to announce a coordinated plan to push down mortgage rates to just 4.5%. Of course, this is precisely the wrong solution to the housing crisis, but when it comes to bad ideas our government has been remarkably consistent. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 05, 2008
U.S. Treasury Bonds the Biggest Bubble of All? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: We've lived through some truly historic bubbles in recent years:
• The dot-com bubble was a doozy …
• The housing bubble was even bigger, and …
Read full article... Read full article...