Category: Stagflation
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Deflation Scare the Perfect Camouflage for Inflationary Money Printing / Economics / Stagflation
By: Chris_Galakoutis
It is said the market can sniff out prospective problems and price itself accordingly. If so, then someone needs to get this dog some nasal spray, lickedy-split! The deflation scare currently hovering over the entire market, particularly in the metals and commodities sectors, has been brutal. But the key question today is whether this “scare” will evolve into a genuine deflation threat to the US and the world? Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Stagflation Becoming an Economic Reality / Economics / Stagflation
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke didn't use the "S" word - stagflation - but he might as well have.
On Friday, the U.S. central bank chief said that the financial crisis that has hammered the U.S. market is combining with rising inflation to eviscerate American economy. Together, the two forces are making it extremely difficult for the Fed to restore economic stability in the U.S. market.
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Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Stagflation a Weapon of Mass Wealth Destruction / Economics / Stagflation
By: Richard_C_Cook
U.S. wholesale prices in July 2008 grew at the fastest rate since 1981. The cost of materials has risen 9.8 percent in the last twelve months, according to government data. While gasoline prices fell the week of August 18 to $3.74 a gallon, they remain far higher than the $2.40 a gallon of mid-2005. Meanwhile, the price of food at the grocery store continues to climb, while consumer purchasing power remains stagnant.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 01, 2008
Silver and Monetary Considerations of Hyperinflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: David_Morgan
Many of you are probably too young to appreciate the full impact of the hyperinflation in Germany after WW1. It was devastating. This picture shows you the amount of paper that was equal to one silver dollar, or ¾ of one troy ounce of fine silver. After seven years of constantly accelerating inflation, the mark is finally stabilized at the rate of over 4 trillion to a U.S. dollar. The black market rate, however, was an incredible 12 trillion to the dollar at this time. The pre-inflation exchange rate for the mark was by contrast a modest 4.2 to the U.S. dollar. Can anyone say Hyperinflation? Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Global Stock Markets Hit by Staglation Fears and Threat of War with Iran / Economics / Stagflation
By: Gary_Dorsch
In today's lightning fast and violent markets, where a constant barrage of news and noise flows into the marketplace each day, it's easy to forget a vital piece of information that was released just a few hours or days earlier. Trader sentiment is often swayed by the price action of the moment, and it's easy to lose sight of the mega-trends and core issues, that move the markets over the longer-term. It was nearly one-year ago, on July 17, 2007, when Bear Stearns BSC said in a letter to investors, that two of its troubled hedge funds that bet heavily on risky sub-prime mortgages had very little value. “The preliminary estimates show there is effectively no value left for the investors in the Enhanced Leverage Fund and very little value left for the investors in the High-Grade Fund, as of June 30, 2007,” BSC said.
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Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Stagflation Sightings Multiplying / Economics / Stagflation
By: John_Browne
We have long warned that stagflation, or economic contraction accompanied by inflation, would become so evident that even the most optimistic observers could not deny its virulence.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
Fed Stuck in Neutral on Monitory Policy Response to Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: John_Browne
On June 25th , the Fed made no changes in its key interest rates and issued a statement that underscored how narrow their room for maneuver had become. Caught between the opposing forces of economic contraction and inflation, the Fed revealed that it was locked in neutral. Given that the Fed must use opposite remedies to satisfy the demands of its dual mandate (higher rates to curb inflation and lower rates to stimulate growth), the Fed is stuck firmly in neutral. There appears to be nothing left to do except to talk and hope for the best. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 28, 2008
The Slow Motion Recession, Inflation, Deflation and Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: John_Mauldin
"We appear to be entering a period of serious stagflation with sharply rising expected and actual inflation combined with large downside risks to growth and employment."
"I would argue that what we are seeing is an acceleration of expected consumer price inflation in the context of a sharp expansion in global liquidity. It is hardly surprising that the prices of those commodities, such as oil, for which the short-run price elasticities of supply and demand are low move upwards strongly when there is a rise in expected general inflation.
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Thursday, June 26, 2008
Money Supply Surge to Lead to US Inflationary Depression / Economics / Stagflation
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold closed at $879.60 in New York yesterday and was down $9.20 and silver closed at $16.48, down 13 cents. Gold fell prior to and shortly after the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates on hold at 2%. However, with rates remaining extremely accommodative and inflation surging gold soon recovered and rallied into the New York close and continued rallying in electronic trading. Gold has continued to rally in Asian and early European trading. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 23, 2008
Don't Worry About a Return to 1970s Style Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: John_Derrick
Recent months have resurrected a potent economic villain of the past—stagflation.
The U.S. economy is seeing little to no growth, while at the same time inflation has risen to levels not seen in the better part of two decades due in large part to soaring food and energy prices.
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Thursday, June 19, 2008
Wage Price Inflation Spiral Plus House Price Deflation Equals Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Warnings of a further 40% hike in energy costs this year puts the Bank of England on high alert for a wage price spiral kicking in which will lead to much higher and prolonged inflation. The first signs of this are in the 14% pay hike agreed with the Shell subcontracted tanker haulers over 2 years at 7% per year which is more than double the current CPI inflation rate of 3.3%. The public sector unions are seizing this event to warn that recent pay agreements that cover the next 2 years will have to be negotiated in line with the rising cost of living signaling a 'Winter of Discontent' for Gordon Browns Labour government.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 16, 2008
Fed Failure has Put United States on the Path to Hyper-inflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Captain_Hook
Man is his own worst enemy – this truism has proven itself over and over in history – and is doing so once again in our handling of economy. As you undoubtedly know the consumer is on the ropes and in need of relief due to excessive credit. True to form however, and consistent with our title today, just when this is happening, commodity prices have lit-up, and are showing no signs of retreat, especially energy prices. This has created a very big problem for central planners they can actually identify within their incompetence, that being, in order to tackle the effects of inflation, they will genuinely (a few choice words in the Fed Minutes won't do the trick) need to show fiscal restraint, or crude oil will go to $200, the dollar will break 70, and it's hyperinflation here we come. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Manipulated, Corrupted and Unreliable Government Data Points to Hyperinflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Stephen_Lendman
Walter "John" Williams thinks out of the box. He makes disquieting reading, but you won't find him in the mainstream. At least not often. He runs a "Shadow Government Statistics" site with an electronic by-subscription newsletter. Anyone can access some of his data and occasional special reports. They can also assess his reasoning. In his judgment, government data are manipulated, corrupted and unreliable. He's not alone thinking that. First, through technical changes over time in how data are collected and/or interpreted. The intent is to portray a more rosy scenario and ignore real world experiences of ordinary people. Calculating the CPI is an example:
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Tuesday, June 10, 2008
How to Survive and Profit from Stagflation / InvestorEducation / Stagflation
By: Martin_Hutchinson
Increasingly in recent weeks commentators have begun speculating about the dreaded “S-word”- stagflation- and whether or not such a protracted period featuring both high prices and high unemployment would blight the U.S. economy.
The stagflation debate arose anew on Friday when a worse-than-expected employment report and a record single-day surge in crude oil prices made economists once again consider the possibility that the U.S. economy could drop into a recession even as inflationary pressures spiraled higher.
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Tuesday, June 10, 2008
UK Producer Price Inflation Soars Suggesting Stagflationary Recession / Economics / Stagflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Producer Price inflation soared in May to 8.6% for the price of output of manufactured goods to levels not seen since the early 1980's stagflationary recession. The trend not only signals a halt to further rate cuts but increasingly the expectations are that despite sharply lower economic growth, UK interest rates will be forced higher as inflationary forces make themselves visible in the CPI data that currently stands at the Bank of England's upper limit of 3%. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
The Hyperinflationary Shell Game / Economics / Stagflation
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Modern economics is not rocket science. In fact, it's not science at all. It's a game, a confidence game. Once paper passed for money, economics became an elaborate shell game designed to hide the fact paper had been substituted for silver and gold. Debt ratings are an attempt to quantify confidence in paper assets and are an essential part of the game. The shell game is called “Where's The Money?” The answer is simple, it's not there. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Global Economic Slowdown in Stagflationary Environment / Economics / Stagflation
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Leading indicators – premature to rule out recession “The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) moved up 0.1% in April, matching the increase seen in March. The two consecutive monthly gains of the index follow five consecutive monthly declines. The spokesperson from the Conference Board indicated that the index is indicative of weak economic conditions but ruled out the possibility of a recession.
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Thursday, May 22, 2008
Western Economies Experiencing Early Stages of Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold and silver continued to surge yesterday with gold up nearly 1% (up $8.25 to $927.80) and silver up 2% (up $0.35 to $17.97). Gold continued to rally in Asia but has succumbed to some profit taking in early trade in Europe. Gold has risen on the continuing oil surge with oil reaching new record highs (above $135) again this morning and oil remains near these record levels.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
US Housing Crisis and the Last Days of Cheap Resources / Housing-Market / Stagflation
By: David_Vaughn
Is the housing crisis over? Or even close to reaching its peak? Not according to the experts. It seems we have a way to go before all the dirt settles to the bottom. Which is another way of saying that we really do not know what the long term effects of this housing mess will bring. Many commentators are trying to put a happy face on this crisis and report that only a small number are being hurt by foreclosures, but the entire housing industry is already suffering with the downturn. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 19, 2008
American Armageddon: How to Win the Epic Battle for Your Wealth / Stock-Markets / Stagflation
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin D. Weiss writes: Just when Wall Street was hoping for some relief from surging energy costs, crude oil prices surged more than $3 on Friday ... spiking to nearly $128 a barrel ... shattering all prior records ... and driving prices at the pump perilously close to $4 per gallon.
Worse, next week, despite the highest gas prices in U.S. history, millions of U.S. drivers will start hitting the road as Memorial Day kicks off the summer driving season. And last week, despite a last-ditch attempt to head off the expected crisis, President Bush failed to persuade the Saudis to pump more oil.
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