Category: Global Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Monday, February 08, 2010
2010 Global Economic Growth to Disappoint / Economics / Global Economy
Before we get to this week's Outside the Box, a quick note about my writing on Greece in last Saturday's letter. I made the point that if Greece defaults it does not necessarily mean they have to leave the EU, any more than if Illinois defaulted they would have to leave the United States. Greece could still use the euro and life could go on. EXCEPT. The markets would no longer lend the Greek government money at anything close to a livable rate. Greece would be forced to balance its budget. Since they are part of the euro, devaluing the currency is not an option. The results of controlling their fiscal deficit would not initially be pretty and would almost insure a serious prolonged recession or depression in the Greek area, with fall out in the region. It would be a sad decade for Greece. But in the long run, it is a better option than default.
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Thursday, January 28, 2010
China Reigns in Davos / Economics / Global Economy
The 40th World Economic Forum started working in Davos on January 27. Russia’s Vladimir Putin opened the forum last year, but neither Russian, nor US leaders are going to attend the event this year.
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Wednesday, December 30, 2009
U.S. China Steel Tariffs Show Protectionism On The Rise / Politics / Global Economy
Price of steel is going up. Is that a good thing? For who? Please consider U.S. Trade Panel Rules for Domestic Steelmakers Against Chinese Imports.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Fundamental Economic Data for the Week Dec 14-18 / Economics / Global Economy
EU:
• Monday: France Current Account (Previous -3.7B, Forecast N/A). Euro-Zone Employment QoQ (Previous -0.5%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous -1.8%, Forecast N/A). Euro-Zone Industrial Production MoM (Previous 0.3%, Forecast -0.7%) & YoY (Previous -12.9%, Forecast -10.8%).
Monday, November 30, 2009
Dubai Debt Bubble Bursting Triggering Financial Shock Waves / Interest-Rates / Global Economy
You know about Dubai's economic crisis. But do you know the background to - and fallout from - the crisis?
A Brief History
Historically, Dubai had an oil-based economy.
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Friday, November 20, 2009
The Great U.S. China Romance / Politics / Global Economy
The newspapers are a-buzz with stories of Obama’s trip to China. The Financial Times tells us what “he should have said.” According to the FT, the American president should have told the Chinese that he wasn’t going to put the US into depression just to protect the value of China’s dollar holdings.
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Sunday, November 15, 2009
What Is At Stake With Free Trade / Economics / Global Economy
In the ten years since the World Trade Organization (WTO) protests in Seattle, global opposition to free trade and “globalization” has exploded. The general public now has a basic understanding of how the world economy works … against them: companies scour the globe searching for slave wages, which help push down wages in “developed” countries; any regulation that reduces profits — environmental, financial, labor, etc. — is destroyed or ignored.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Monetary Policy Outlook / Interest-Rates / Global Economy
Deleted.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Megacities Generate a Third of World’s GDP / Economics / Global Economy
GDP of the world’s largest cities with emerging economies will experience rapid growth. In 2008 the largest 100 cities accounted for about 30% of global GDP and some have bigger economies than medium-sized countries like Sweden or Switzerland. Within the last three years, Moscow has leaped from the 25th to the 15th place in this rating.
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Saturday, October 17, 2009
U.S. Tax Payer Dollars Funding Sweatshops Globally / Politics / Global Economy
In July 2008, SweatFree Communities (SFC) released a report titled, "Subsidizing Sweatshops: How Our Tax Dollars Fund the Race to the Bottom, and What Cities and States Can Do" in which it studied 12 factories in nine countries that produce employee uniforms for nine major companies.
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Monday, October 05, 2009
Faltering World Economic Recovery? / Economics / Global Economy
It would be nice and easy to believe that the road to economic recovery is now clear and straightforward after the financial market crash of 2007-2009. Equity markets have had one of the best quarters ever, corporate and government bond yields have fallen sharply and spreads, in cash and corporate bonds, are narrower than at any time since the crisis gathered momentum in 2008. Economic growth has resumed in Q2 or Q3 of 2009 for most economies after a year of declines. Housing markets (US, UK, Spain, Ireland) are seeing a flattening in activity after the sharp falls of the past year or some modest up-tick. And manufacturing output is recovering from its lows in most countries. But there are some signs that the pace of the recovery is losing momentum and faltering. We look at some of these issues in this Weekly Report, starting with recent trends in financial markets.
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Friday, September 25, 2009
G20, The Price of Pretense in Pittsburgh / Politics / Global Economy
As another G20 meeting rolls around, this time on home soil, the time comes once again for the economically curious but politically unconnected to wonder what is really happening behind closed doors. But while admiring the pageantry, chuckling at the awkward group photos, and parsing the joint communiqués like newly found Dead Sea scrolls, the overwhelming majority of observers will miss the meeting's dominant theme: hypocrisy.
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Friday, September 25, 2009
The U.S. and China Put on Their Boxing Gloves … / Economics / Global Economy
If someone loaned you $600 BILLION, and you wanted to borrow even more, you’d be very careful to stay on his good side, wouldn’t you?
Of course you would! But that is exactly the opposite of how Washington is treating Chinese government lenders.
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Thursday, September 24, 2009
G20 Leaders Discuss Global Financial Crisis as Economies Recover / Economics / Global Economy
G20 leaders will gather in Pittsburgh today to assess their efforts to ease the impact of the global financial crisis and to consider next steps. There is no doubt that both the financial markets and global economy are on a sounder footing since the previous meeting in London five months ago, bolstered, in part, by the co-ordinated response agreed at that summit.
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Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Global Trade Battle Explained / Economics / Global Economy
The Obama Administration waited until the wee hours of September 11th, 2009 to quietly inform Americans of its decision to slap new tariffs against low-end tire imports from China. Coming only days before this week's important G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh, an occasion when China will likely renew its campaign to push the world towards a post-dollar economy, the timing of the announcement seems particularly ill-advised. To be frank, it is like waving a red flag in front of a bull. It is not surprising that China instantly retaliated with their own duties on U.S. auto parts and agricultural products.
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Wednesday, September 23, 2009
The G20’s Crowded Agenda / Economics / Global Economy
Deleted.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
U.S. Trade Spat with China Unlikely to Escalates Into Trade War / Companies / Global Economy
Jason Simpkins writes: Shortly after U.S. President Barack Obama announced hefty import duties on Chinese-made tires, China's Ministry of Commerce over the weekend said it would explore possible sanctions against U.S. automobile and chicken imports.
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Tuesday, September 22, 2009
G-20 Globalization Goes Bankrupt / Politics / Global Economy
The rage of the disposed is fracturing the country, dividing it into camps that are unmoored from the political mainstream. Movements are building on the ends of the political spectrum that have lost faith in the mechanisms of democratic change. You can’t blame them. But unless we on the left move quickly, this rage will be captured by a virulent and racist right wing, one that seeks a disturbing proto-fascism.
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Monday, September 21, 2009
Welcome World to Pittsburgh: Time For More Than Yak at the G20? / Politics / Global Economy
Can Obama Help Forge A Global Consensus for Deep Economic Change?
Dear International Leaders and Guests,
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Monday, September 21, 2009
Trade Wars and Protectionism are Not Free Trade / Politics / Global Economy
Two weeks ago, both the administration and the Fed announced with straight faces that the recession was over and the signs of economic recovery were clear. Then last week, the president made a stunning decision that signals the administration’s determination to repeat the mistakes of the Great Depression.
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