Category: Global Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, December 09, 2017
China’s Struggle for Market Economy Status / Politics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recently, the Trump administration joined the EU and rejected the view that under the WTO terms China should have graduated last year to market-economy status. Now Trump is using Obama’s accession legacy to undermine world trade.The accession debacle intensified a year ago, when then president-elect Trump stated categorically in Iowa that “China is not a market economy.”
In the prior months, Trump had pledged to beat back the Trans-Pacific Partnership TPP (which he buried on his inaugural day), undo the North-American Free Trade Agreement NAFTA (whose fifth round of talks ended recently in simmering friction), and impose huge tariffs on China and rewrite the rules of world trade - in which the accession mess could prove a milestone.
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Friday, November 10, 2017
US-China Trade at Global Crossroads / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite “America First” policies, President Trump’s economic agenda needs expanding trade with China.President Donald Trump began his grueling 12-day Asia tour amid US Special Counsel’s first indictments, which cast a shadow over the White House’s future.
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Wednesday, September 06, 2017
The Great Shift of Global Economic Power / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
BRIC economies continue to grow. In the late 2020s, the size of China’s economy will surpass that of the US. By the early 2030s, the BRICs’ combined economic power will surpass that of major advanced nations.The BRICS Summit in Xiamen, Fujian province, signals the rising might of the large emerging economies, such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil. South Africa does not fulfill the criteria of a true BRIC economy - large population, strong growth record and catch-up potential - but it has historically played a key role in African governance.
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Sunday, August 20, 2017
The Peak of Globalization and The Reason Trump Won / Politics / Global Economy
By: Harry_Dent
Fareed Zakaria just put out a special show on why Trump won: He got the rural white vote in unprecedented margins – like 80% plus. Even before Election Day, we put out an infographic explaining why Trump could win despite the polls. Still, even I was a little surprised when he won!I bring this up again now, not to bash Trump, but to highlight the demographic and cyclical explanation behind his victory. And to show that the events that brought Trump into power aren’t done stirring things up. There’s a lot more to come. Trump is only the beginning…
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Friday, August 18, 2017
The World May Soon Split in Two Trading Blocs—Here’s How to Position Your Portfolio / Politics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : What do freight trains, oil supertankers, and the Trump administration’s trade plans have in common? Once they get going, they’re pretty much unstoppable.
Trump wants to punish nations he thinks treat US companies unfairly. And China is first on his list.
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Friday, July 14, 2017
Trump’s Trade Policies Are Provoking A Global Trade War— How to Hedge Your Portfolio / Politics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON :Removing barriers to international trade has both upside and downside. Donald Trump is now president in part because he focused on the downside: lost US jobs, closed factories, blighted communities.
Even more important, he's fundamentally changing the way government looks at trade policy.
Trade negotiations have long had the implicit goal of promoting peace. It’s a fact that nations with active business relationships rarely attack each other, though the security aspect used to stay mostly unspoken.
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Thursday, July 06, 2017
Here’s Why This G20 Meeting Doesn’t Really Matter / Politics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Anyone who has ever been to a meeting knows that meetings are often confounding, frustrating affairs. Most of them are designed simply to be held. The people who attend them are unlikely to agree on anything except maybe the date of the next one.
The G-20 summit is no exception.
But that’s only because the people who attend it, the leaders of the countries with the world’s 20 largest economies, think of themselves as decision-makers when really they are hostages to history.
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Monday, July 03, 2017
Are Advanced Economies Ready for Recovery, Really? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Or Global Reflation As China Begins Tightening
Until recently, the conventional wisdom was that China’s contribution to global reflation would be increasingly accompanied by those of the US and Europe. Yet, the realities may look grimmer than anticipated.
Usually, the term ‘reflation’ is used to describe the first phase of economic recovery after a period of contraction. More recently, ‘global reflation’ has been deployed to refer to the post-crisis past decade, which has been characterized by lingering recovery from the global crisis, despite ultra-low rates and quantitative easing.
Sunday, July 02, 2017
The China-EU-US-Triangle Déjà Vu / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
The new rapprochement between Brussels and Beijing involves converging economic interests between Europe and China – and diverging strategic interests between Europe and America.A day after the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, Le Monde declared that “we are all Americans.” But the honeymoon of shared suffering ended quickly when US military revenge raged across Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere. Instead, a deep and broad transatlantic rift emerged, thanks to bitter disagreements about President Bush’s foreign policy revolution.
Today, many feel an odd sense of déjà vu.
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Saturday, June 17, 2017
Here’s The Case For An Upside Risk In The Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
One of the true riddles in the economic world today is a steady drop in total global productivity over the last few decades. That’s in spite of the growing use of computers, robotics, and artificial intelligence.
In theory, productivity should have gone up, but it didn’t.
Professor and Nobel laureate Robert Gordon and others have foreseen that the GDP growth will decline to less than 1%, and they have all sorts of data to back up their claim.
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Thursday, May 25, 2017
5 Trends That Will Shape the Next Decade / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In a typically ebullient presentation at Mauldin Economics’ 2017 Strategic Investment Conference on Tuesday, author, analyst, and trend-spotter Pippa Malmgren laid out key trends set to shape the early part of the 21st century.
Overall, the future is bright enough to need shades but also sunblock, according to Malmgren. The key thing we need is situational awareness. “Nobody saw the financial crisis, Brexit, or Trump coming,” she said. “I did. Not because I’m smarter than anyone else, but because people insist on looking at the world through a mathematical lens. This is a terrible mistake.”
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Wednesday, April 12, 2017
Map Shows 16 Countries Will Be Hit Hard By The Global Exporters’ Crisis / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
The world is currently in the midst of an exporters' crisis. The stagnation in global consumption levels and decline of commodity prices have led to increased instability and insecurity in countries heavily dependent on exports.
The origins of the exporters’ crisis lie in the economic recessions that the United States and Europe experienced due to the 2008 financial crash. These countries were major consumers of Chinese goods, notably low-cost manufactured products.
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Wednesday, March 29, 2017
The Last G-20 Meeting Marks the End of Free Trade / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : In the last G-20 meeting, its members agreed to drop the forum’s commitment to free trade at the insistence of the United States. That agreement was reached at one meeting and was contained in a single document—such agreements and documents are far from written in stone.
In spite of that, it must be regarded as a historical moment. Excluding the free trade commitment from the agreement marks a fundamental shift in a concept that has been central to global economics for more than a generation.
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Friday, March 17, 2017
Preserving Order Amid Change in NAFTA, U.S. Sovereignty v. WTO / Economics / Global Economy
By: STRATFOR
By Reva Goujon and Matthew Bey : It took more than a decade and three presidencies, from Ronald Reagan to Bill Clinton, to conceive and craft the North American Free Trade Agreement. Will a single presidency manage to undo the process of North American integration? While the risk is real, the reality may be less dramatic.
Monday, March 06, 2017
Trump's Disruptive Approach to Trade / Economics / Global Economy
By: STRATFOR
A shift in U.S. trade policy that follows the outline presented today to Congress would upend the foundations of global trade as it is currently conducted. The biggest change in the approach that the administration of President Donald Trump may take is its assertion that U.S. sovereignty in trade disputes could empower it to supersede rulings made by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Wednesday, March 01, 2017
US Drives Global Economic Growth / Economics / Global Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US is back in the driver seat again as a sustained and growing economic powerhouse – the Trump Economy. Since the November 2016 elections, the US economic data and outlook have been driving investment in US equities as well as select foreign investment opportunities. The reduction in regulations and business friendly Trump administration seems to have unleashed the hoard of cash and opportunity of the past 7+ years. US and foreign business are, again, “wheeling and dealing” with the intent of generating greater profits and more opportunities.
Saturday, February 18, 2017
Not Nearly Enough Economic Growth To Keep Growing / Economics / Global Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It’s amusing to see how views start to converge, at the same time that it’s tiresome to see how long that takes. It’s a good thing that more and more people ‘discover’ how and why austerity, especially in Europe, is such a losing and damaging strategy. It’s just a shame that this happens only after the horses have left the barn and the cows have come home, been fed, bathed, put on lipstick and gone back out to pasture again. Along the same lines, it’s beneficial that the recognition that for a long time economic growth has not been what ‘we’ think it should be, is spreading.
Monday, February 13, 2017
Reinventing the Global Economy Is the Only Way Out / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
As I’ve written previously, central bankers received a lot of criticism over the last year or two as the global economy has stubbornly refused to recover from the Great Recession at anywhere near the rate of past post-recession growth cycles.
Economics has come under fire along with other “establishment” institutions that are perceived as uncaring and out of touch. The criticism grew more intense—and more effective in the past year as Brexit and then the Trump victory occurred.
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Friday, January 20, 2017
Real Leadership Requires True Globalization / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
After 2008, world trade, investment and migration have come to a standstill. What the world requires is responsible leadership, which rests on inclusive globalization.
During his first state visit to Switzerland and the World Economic Forum (WEF), President Xi Jinping hoped to inject a positive impetus for the recovery of the world economy.
Amidst rising economic uncertainty and market volatility, Xi offered China's vision on economic growth and free trade in a global economy overshadowed by protectionism.
Tuesday, December 13, 2016
WTO Debacle Heralds the End of Postwar Trade Regime / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
“China is not a market economy,” President-elect Donald Trump said in Iowa a few days ago. In the past few months, Trump has also pledged to undo the North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), beat back the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), impose huge tariffs on China and Mexico, and rewrite the rules of trade.
Nevertheless, the Obama White House, the EU and Japan beat Trump in the reset of the international trading regime by refusing China its market economy status (MES). The key clause in China’s agreement for joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) expired on Sunday.