Category: Quantitative Easing
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Tuesday, November 02, 2010
A Refresher Ahead Fed's Announcement of Second Round of Quantitative Easing / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
The Fed is widely expected to announce the second round of quantitative easing (QE) after the FOMC meeting on November 4. The goal of the policy change is to bring about an increase in real GDP above the tepid 2.0% pace reported for the third quarter such that it eventually makes a dent in the current elevated unemployment rate of 9.6%. The details of QE2 in terms of timing, size, and speed are awaited.
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Monday, November 01, 2010
Slow U.S. GDP Growth Sets Stage for Fed’s Next Round of Quantitative Easing / Economics / Quantitative Easing
Don Miller writes : The U.S. economy continued to struggle to grow in the third quarter, most likely giving government officials enough cover to pump more liquidity into the financial system to stimulate hiring.
Gross domestic product (GDP), the value of all goods and services produced, increased by 2% in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires were expecting GDP to rise by 2.1% in the July to September period, The Wall Street Journal reported.
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Monday, November 01, 2010
Bernanke Torching the U.S. Economic Recovery with Quantitative Easing / Economics / Quantitative Easing
Investors Burned by Bernanke’s QE Demonstrations
While Chairman Bernanke has his theory on quantitative easing, we suspect QE will turn out more like this Turkish firefighter demonstrating fire safety (no one was hurt in this video). Instead of limiting losses to those that took risks, Bernanke’s first round of bailouts in 2008-9 spread the fire to all American taxpayers. Ben’s next demonstration of quantitative easing is likely to create uncertainty and chaos by torching the credit markets.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Bernanke Makes a Pact with the Devil / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
Monty Agarwal writes: When Fed President Hoenig declared last week that Bernanke is making “a pact with the devil,” he wasn’t kidding.
Nor was he talking about a little side deal that would someday be forgiven in money heaven.
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Thursday, October 28, 2010
What is Quantitative Easing? Fed’s Perspective and Writings / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
A Wall Street Journal article (10/27/10) on quantitative easing (QE) hints the Fed will take a middle of the road approach in terms of the size and duration of QE2. As we would expect, the stock and commodity markets’ initial reaction is negative. A middle of the road approach to QE seems counter intuitive to the Fed’s own historical analysis of why quantitative easing was ineffective in Japan. In CCM’s July 2010 review of James Bullard’s Seven Faces of “The Peril”, our read between the lines interpretation of Bullard’s take on QE included:
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Wednesday, October 27, 2010
The Market Impact of $100 Billion a Month of Quantitative Easing / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
Wall Street is going wild with new quantitative easing talk. However, as the Street moves to front-run Ben Bernanke, one perspective is very much understood: QE2 will be nothing like we've ever seen before. The new quantitative easing will be monstrous, persistent, and of a size, scope and direction never before seen.
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Wednesday, October 27, 2010
PIMCO Bill Gross's Arrogant Endorsement of Fed's QE Policy / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
It is not often you see bond managers openly embrace Ponzi schemes, but that is exactly what Bill Gross did in his post Run Turkey, Run.
Read full article... Read full article...There’s another important day next week and it rather coincidentally occurs on Wednesday – the day after Election Day – when either the Donkeys or the Elephants will be celebrating a return to power and the continuation of partisan bickering no matter who is in charge. Wednesday is the day when the Fed will announce a renewed commitment to Quantitative Easing – a polite form disguise for “writing checks.” The market will be interested in the amount (perhaps as much as an initial $500 billion) as well as the targeted objective (perhaps a muddied version of “2% inflation or bust!”). The announcement, however, has been well telegraphed and the market’s reaction is likely to be subdued. More important will be the answer to the long-term question of “will it work?” and perhaps its associated twin “will it create a bond market bubble?”
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Quantitative Easing Program Confirmed by Federal Reserve / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
Not content on waiting to reveal to the markets after the conclusion of the November 3rd Federal Reserve meeting, the St. Louis Fed just published an article in the latest Monetary Trends entitled 'Is More QE in Sight?'
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Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Bernanke's $4 Trillion Quantitative Easing Dilemma / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
Ben Bernanke is in a real fix. His quantitative easing (QE) program is designed to boost stock prices, lower bond yields, and weaken the dollar.
But the market has already priced all that in, so when he announces the start of the program on November 3, there's a good chance that things will either stay the same or head in the opposite direction. That's bad for Bernanke. Just imagine if the dollar strengthens just as the Fed chairman begins buying-up Treasuries to push the dollar down. He'll look pretty foolish. But that could happen because the dollar has already slipped nearly 7% since August and is overdue for a rebound.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Quantitative Easing (QE2): Who Gets the Fed’s Printed Money? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
Part 2 of a 6 Part Video Series on Quantitative Easing: In Part 1: Quantitative Easing Targets Asset Prices, Not Bank Reserves, we discussed how Mr. Bernanke’s quantitative easing program is implemented via the Fed’s eighteen primary dealers, not traditional banks.
We do not know the size of the Fed’s program, nor do we know how the markets will react in the short-term. However, one thing we know with near certainty – a large quantity of newly printed money is going to flow from the Fed to the eighteen primary dealers. We also know a significant amount of the electronic greenbacks will flow from the primary dealers into the accounts of their clients.
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Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Quantitative Easing Targets Asset Prices, Not Bank Reserves / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
With markets coming off of overbought levels, bullish sentiment high, and gold backing off a vertical ascent, we believe investors need to be ready for a quantitative easing (QE) disappointment pullback. A “buy the QE rumor, sell the QE news” event needs to be considered from a portfolio management perspective. Having said that we also believe most investors and many financial professionals do not fully understand how QE works in the real world and that one of QE’s primary objectives is to inflate asset prices.
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Monday, October 25, 2010
Is the Fed Sorry It Promised QE2? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
The Fed has had stocks and gold spiking up since early September, and the dollar plunging, first on hints that it might consider providing another round of ‘quantitative easing’ if the economic recovery continued to worsen, and then practically promising it’s ready to do so.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 22, 2010
QE2 and the Alleged Deflation Threat / Economics / Quantitative Easing
The markets and financial pundits are all abuzz over the prospect of another round of quantitative easing — "QE2" — in which the Fed may start buying yet another trillion dollars in assets after the elections. The justification for this massive bout of new inflation is, of course, the threat of deflation.
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Thursday, October 21, 2010
Japan Quantitative Easing – A Curious Conundrum / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
As I mentioned in the Week in Review the move last week by the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates and enact a new quantitative easing program along with the lack of moves by Indonesia and Australia coupled with the immediate rally in equity markets looks increasingly like a coordinated global intervention to push up equity prices to help Japan.
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Sunday, October 17, 2010
Quantitative Easing 2 is a Bad Idea, Market Manipulators Pushing Stocks Higher / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
Friday's internals were weak, in spite of being a mixed market. The NASDAQ 100 had a huge price move up, but a significant chunk of the price gain came from one stock, Google. Google rose $60.52 per share, or 11.10 percent, in one day, Friday. Google is one of those stocks that a market manipulator can buy to move an index in the hopes it starts bandwagon buying. During the 2003 and 2006 rallies, we saw MMM move the Industrials with bizarre isolated rising price days. At the time, it appeared to us a market manipulator was moving the Industrials higher with 3M purchases. From time to time we see concerted efforts to push markets higher. Now is one of those times. But each time this happens, it causes the subsequent decline to be worse than would otherwise have been the case, like stretching a rubber band too far.
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Saturday, October 16, 2010
Fed Chairman Bernanke Presents a Case for QE2, CPI Remains Subdued / Economics / Quantitative Easing
Chairman Bernanke's remarks, Friday morning, have confirmed expectations that a second round of quantitative easing (QE) will be put in place on November 3.
"Given the Committee's objectives, there would appear--all else being equal--to be a case for further action."
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Friday, October 15, 2010
Bernanke Ponders The "Nuclear Option" / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
Ben Bernanke's speech on Friday in Boston could turn out to be a real barnburner. In fact, there's a good chance the Fed chairman will announce changes in policy that will stun Wall Street and send tremors through Capital Hill. Along with another trillion or so in quantitative easing, Bernanke is likely to appeal to congress for a second round of fiscal stimulus, this time in the form of a two-year suspension of the payroll tax. That's what he figures it will take to jump-start spending and rev-up the flagging economy. It could be the most radical intervention in history; Bernanke's version of “shock and awe”.
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Tuesday, October 12, 2010
The U.S. Fed Wants an Inflation Boom / Economics / Quantitative Easing
As long time readers know, I am a big fan of Greg Weldon. This week he has very graciously allowed me to reproduce his client letter from last Thursday on some of the issues of Bernanke and Quantitative Easing 2. It prints a little longer than usual because of his format and all the charts, but this is one letter you should take the time to read.
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Sunday, October 10, 2010
$2 Trillion False Flag Event at the U.S. Treasury, The Fed’s Furtive Filching / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
$2,000,000,000,000.00 dollars has been stolen from the US Treasury!! What happened? Who did it? Did they get away with it?
The answers: A ‘false flag’ event, the Federal Reserve, and yes.
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Sunday, October 10, 2010
QE2 Won, But Won’t Un-Block America’s Economic Stagnation, Now Keynes’ Nuclear BubbleOmics / Economics / Quantitative Easing
The justification for QE1 was that there was a “loss of control” and it was likely there would be a train wreck. The evidence that it was successful is that there was not a train wreck; although there was a bit of a scrape.
It’s impossible to say whether America and/or the World would be a better place if …
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