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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Economic Recovery

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Why the U.S. Recession Forecasters Are Wrong (For Now) / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSpeculation over the direction of the economy continues to take center stage. With the presidential election coming up in 2012, the economy will undoubtedly be the central issue on the campaign trail and will receive even more attention than it has up until now. Many analysts have made waves lately in forecasting a "double dip" recession, with at least a couple of high profile analysts claiming the recession has already arrived.

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Economics

Friday, October 21, 2011

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Index of Leading Indicators, Small But Noteworthy Positive Signals / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims dropped 6,000 to 403,000 during the week ended October 15. The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims (403,000) is the lowest since the week ended April 23, 2011. That said, initial jobless claims are still holding at a worrisome level. In other words, a large drop in initial jobless claims is necessary to say that the worst is behind us. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, rose 25,000 to 3.719 million.

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Economics

Saturday, July 23, 2011

U.S. Real GDP in the Economic Current Recovery, How Does it Compare? / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

The current economic recovery is eight quarters old.  The first estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter will be published on July 29.  Chart 1 is an index chart where real GDP data are set equal to 100 at the trough of each recession and real GDP for subsequent quarters are computed accordingly to enable comparisons of real GDP growth across recoveries.  For example, a reading of 104 would mean that real GDP increased 4.0% from the trough.  In 2011:Q1, the seventh quarter of economic recovery, real GDP rose 4.95% from the trough of the current recovery.  At a similar stage of economic recovery after the 2001 recession, real GDP recorded a 4.88% gain. 

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Economics

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

The Disintegrating U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: John_Kozy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe word 'recover' always has the connotation of "getting back." But who is going to get back what when the economy "recovers"? Few at most. So what does an economic recovery look like? No one knows. The word 'recovery' can not be applied to objects willy-nilly. A sick person goes into the hospital to recover; a broken automobile is taken to a shop to be repaired. Automobiles do not recover. Neither do economies; they can only get better or worse, and specific information is needed to determine which. Few people realize just how close to the edge of disintegration America is. The Congress meets for one purpose and one purpose alone—to get reelected. The political posturing begins the day after each election, while the nation's problems go unaddressed, and our media aid and abet the posturing. Such is America today. This recession/depression will never "recover." Neither will America.

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Economics

Monday, July 04, 2011

Small Business and the Jobless Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Fred_Buzzeo

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf we listen to most economists, we are told that the recession is over and we are in a period of recovery. In fact, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official voice on this matter, tells us that the recovery began in June 2009.

Fortunately, most Americans focused on making a living see right through this illusion. For example, a recent New York Times/CBS poll indicates that Americans are becoming increasingly disillusioned with the performance of the US economy. An astonishing 70 percent of respondents said that the country is moving in the wrong direction.

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Economics

Saturday, June 18, 2011

U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators Suggests Mild Growth / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) increased 0.8% in May after a 0.4% drop in April.  The year-over-year change of the LEI in the second quarter (April-May average) moved up 5.00% after advancing 5.5% in the prior quarter.  The recent peak of the year-to-year change of the LEI was 10% in the first quarter of 2010.  The year-to-year change of the index since the early months of 2010 has maintained a decelerating trend, implying that only a mildly positive pace of economic growth is likely in the quarters ahead. 

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Economics

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Stimulus-fueled Economic Recovery End Game / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Peter_Schiff

Economic data over the past weeks, punctuated by last week's dismal employment reports, confirm the diminishing impact of the stimulus efforts orchestrated by the Obama Administration and the Federal Reserve. In what must be a huge disappointment to Keynesian enthusiasts, the record doses of both monetary and fiscal narcotics did not produce the desired results. In fact, the size and scope of the "recovery" of the past two years was weaker than would have been expected in a typical business cycle recovery without any stimulus whatsoever. Indeed our current recovery is the weakest on record, despite the biggest jolt of government stimulus ever administered.

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Economics

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Where Is The Economic Recovery? I Cannot Seem To Find It / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe only thing worse than being blind is having sight but no vision." - Helen Keller

Possibly the only thing worse than having a serious problem on your hands is when you clearly do not understand the problem. You ignore the data and find an easy scapegoat for why the problem is temporary and will pass. The slowdown in the US economy is not transitory as the Fed chairman states. Hopes for 3-4% GDP growth in the second half of 2011 are simply that, hope.

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Economics

Monday, May 23, 2011

U.S. Economic Recovery Faces More Speed Bumps / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJon D. Markman writes: Of all the economic news last week, the fall in unemployment claims had the most positive impact. It's great to see them come down, and my work suggests that May is on track for a 275,000 gain in payrolls, which is well above current consensus.

Claims fell by 29,000 to 409,000 last week, the second improvement in a row after a couple of sad-sack weeks that were muddied by special events like a new emergency benefits program in Oregon and the layoffs resulting from the parts shortage in Japan.

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Economics

Friday, April 29, 2011

U.S. 2011 Q1 Real GDP Economic Growth One of the Three Smallest Gains of the Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal GDP of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.8% in the first quarter of 2011, after a 3.1% increase in the prior quarter. Of the seven quarters of economic growth recorded in the current recovery, the first quarter's performance is one of the three readings which have been below 2.0% (see Chart 1).

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Economics

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Slowing U.S. Economic Recovery Faces Strong Headwinds in 2011 / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKerri Shannon writes: The U.S. economic recovery has been heading upward, but high unemployment and rising energy prices will weigh heavily on consumers and slow U.S. growth.

Many economists don't think the U.S. economy will maintain the 3.1% growth rate it established in 2010's fourth quarter. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that while global growth this year will continue at a rate of 4.8%, advanced regions like the United States will grow at a slower rate than emerging economies.

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Economics

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Economic Recovery Statistics / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Pravda

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMichael Snyder writes: Today there are two very different Americas. In one America, the stock market is soaring, huge bonuses are taken for granted, the good times are rolling and people are spending money as if they will be able to "live the dream" for the rest of their lives. In the other America, the one where most of the rest of us live, unemployment is rampant, a million families were kicked out of their homes last year and hordes of American families are drowning in debt. The gap between the rich and the poor is bigger today than it ever has been before. In fact, this article is not so much about "rich vs poor" as it is about "the rich vs the rest of us". Barack Obama and Ben Bernanke keep touting an "economic recovery", but the truth is that the only ones that seem to be benefiting from this recovery are those at the very top of the economic food chain.

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Economics

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Top 10 Keynesian Ways to Boost the Economy / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJason Kaspar writes: Keynesian economists are propagandizing the media with a unified message; in one breath lightly touching on the human tragedy in Japan, while in the next anticipating with delight the economic recovery it will (supposedly) create. The natural disaster in Japan is tragic both on a human level and economically. Japan may, possibly, enjoy a GDP boost in six months or so as a result of some rebuilding, but the billions in present-day lost productivity will easily negate any future upside.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

U.S. Jobs, Housing, and Petroleum Usage Illustrates Stimulus Fed Led Financial Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf the recovery was in full swing, why isn't petroleum usage?

Here are a pair of charts from reader Tim Wallace showing the percentage change in petroleum usage over time.

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Economics

Friday, March 18, 2011

U.S. Factory Production Maintains Upward Trajectory / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Industrial production declined 0.1% in February, reflecting a 4.5% drop in production at the nation's utilities and a 0.4% increase in factory production. Factory production accounts for the major part of the industrial production index. 

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Economics

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

U.S. Consumer Borrowing Posts Fourth Monthly Gain / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Consumer borrowing advanced at an annual rate of 2.5% in January, the fourth consecutive monthly increase after posting declines during each month in the October 2008 - August 2010 and holding steady in September 2010.  Of the two main components of consumer credit, revolving credit (credit card borrowing) fell 6.4% in January but non-revolving credit (borrowing for cars, vacations, durable goods, and other purposes) advanced at an annual rate of 6.9% (see Chart 4). 

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Economics

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

ISM Manufacturing Forward Momentum in U.S. Factory Sector Remains in Place / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe composite index of ISM manufacturing survey rose to 61.4 in February from 60.8 in the prior month.  Indexes tracking new orders, production, employment, vendor deliveries, exports, and prices advanced in February.  The composite index is highest since May 2004 (see Chart 4).  The advances in production, new orders, employment, and exports are noteworthy. 

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Economics

Sunday, February 20, 2011

An Improving U.S. Economy, But Where Are the Jobs? / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI am on yet another plane and writing, and I'll finish this letter in Phoenix. As I start, I am not sure of a theme for this week's letter, so (with a tip of the hat to my friend Burton Malkiel, who I will see at Rob Arnott's conference in a few months), today we do a Random Walk Around the Frontlines, surveying what's going on in the world. We'll start with the Fed and interest rates, look at inflation, and see how far we get. And I might get a little controversial, but long-time readers know that is not all that unusual.

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Economics

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Bernanke Says Two Speed Economic Recovery Requires Different Policies / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChairman Bernanke's speech was drawn from his paper examining the nature of international capital flows prior to the global financial meltdown.  The analysis is long on detail and useful for policymakers and research.  More importantly, Bernanke indicated that the two speed global economy calls for different policies.

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Economics

Monday, February 14, 2011

The Two Roads Out of Recession / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Shamus_Cooke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecent events in Washington, D.C. should provoke fear and outrage in the average American worker. As the jobs recession staggers on, politicians and labor leaders alike seem bizarrely distanced from reality, unable to advance any ideas that remotely correspond to the basic demands of those tens of millions of unemployed, under-employed, or poorly paid workers.

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