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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Economic Recovery

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

U.S. Consumer Borrowing Posts Fourth Monthly Gain / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Consumer borrowing advanced at an annual rate of 2.5% in January, the fourth consecutive monthly increase after posting declines during each month in the October 2008 - August 2010 and holding steady in September 2010.  Of the two main components of consumer credit, revolving credit (credit card borrowing) fell 6.4% in January but non-revolving credit (borrowing for cars, vacations, durable goods, and other purposes) advanced at an annual rate of 6.9% (see Chart 4). 

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Economics

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

ISM Manufacturing Forward Momentum in U.S. Factory Sector Remains in Place / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe composite index of ISM manufacturing survey rose to 61.4 in February from 60.8 in the prior month.  Indexes tracking new orders, production, employment, vendor deliveries, exports, and prices advanced in February.  The composite index is highest since May 2004 (see Chart 4).  The advances in production, new orders, employment, and exports are noteworthy. 

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Economics

Sunday, February 20, 2011

An Improving U.S. Economy, But Where Are the Jobs? / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI am on yet another plane and writing, and I'll finish this letter in Phoenix. As I start, I am not sure of a theme for this week's letter, so (with a tip of the hat to my friend Burton Malkiel, who I will see at Rob Arnott's conference in a few months), today we do a Random Walk Around the Frontlines, surveying what's going on in the world. We'll start with the Fed and interest rates, look at inflation, and see how far we get. And I might get a little controversial, but long-time readers know that is not all that unusual.

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Economics

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Bernanke Says Two Speed Economic Recovery Requires Different Policies / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChairman Bernanke's speech was drawn from his paper examining the nature of international capital flows prior to the global financial meltdown.  The analysis is long on detail and useful for policymakers and research.  More importantly, Bernanke indicated that the two speed global economy calls for different policies.

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Economics

Monday, February 14, 2011

The Two Roads Out of Recession / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Shamus_Cooke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecent events in Washington, D.C. should provoke fear and outrage in the average American worker. As the jobs recession staggers on, politicians and labor leaders alike seem bizarrely distanced from reality, unable to advance any ideas that remotely correspond to the basic demands of those tens of millions of unemployed, under-employed, or poorly paid workers.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Changing Perception of the U.S. Economy Food for Thought / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe 2-year Treasury note is trading around 0.78% today, from a low of 0.54% on January 28. The 10-year Treasury note yield has moved up to 3.67% from 3.36% in the same period (see Chart 1). The bond market essentially signals the U.S. economy is turning around and is most likely to establish sustained growth in 2011. A part of the bullish sentiment commenced after Bernanke's speech in the last week of August 2010 when the Fed signaled that a second round of support was on its way.

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Economics

Monday, January 31, 2011

PopCon: The ‘Economic Recovery’ Lie / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: James_West

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt is only human to seek reasons for optimism, and to find comfort in self-delusion. “You’re going to be just fine,” is probably one of the most frequent lies told among family members when serious injury or illness occurs. We have to believe we’re going to be “just fine”, because the alternative is too painful, and painfully unacceptable.

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Economics

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Q4 Real Gross Domestic Product Shows U.S. Economy is on Expansion Path / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal gross domestic product of the U.S. economy rose at an annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2010 after slower growth in the second and third quarters of the year. In 2010, on an annual average basis, the economy grew 2.9% after a 2.6% decline in 2009 and a steady reading in 2008. The level of real GDP in the fourth quarter ($13,382.6 billion) exceeds the peak registered in the fourth quarter of 2007 ($13,363.5billion). Effectively, the economic recovery phase is history and the U.S. is on a path of economic expansion (see Chart 2).

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Economics

Friday, January 28, 2011

Is the Fed Taking the Economic Recovery Too Far, Too Fast? / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe latest round of economic numbers continues to impress Wall Street and is keeping hopes of a continued economic recovery alive. Many observers question, however, if perhaps the Fed is taking the recovery too far, too fast.

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that new home sales for December increased 17.5% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 329,000 units. This was above the consensus rate of 300,000 units and traders jumped into stocks on the news. The 17.5% increase comes following the 5.5% gain that occurred in November.

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Economics

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Luxury Brands Are Back In Style as America's Wealthy Return to Their Wears / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJason Simpkins writes: The U.S. unemployment rate may still be high, but that hasn't stopped consumer spending from rallying. And in contrast to the darkest days of the financial crisis, when discount retailers like Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) ruled the day, luxury brands have been doing the heavy lifting.

Indeed, bolstered by the extension of the Bush tax cuts and strong demand in Asia, luxury brands are coming back into style.

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Economics

Thursday, January 20, 2011

An Economic Recovery Unto Death / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the Bible there is a reference to a “sin unto death.” In the realm of U.S. economic policy a situation is developing that could easily lead to a “death” of the current recovery. Ironically, this brewing economic destruction is springing from the same policies that are responsible for the recovery (call it a “recovery unto death”). These policies are supposed to lead the U.S. out of recession and into a “new tomorrow” but as we’ll discuss here, the end result is likely to be something far short of what policy leaders envision.

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Economics

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Retail Sales Suggest Strong Q4 Consumer Spending / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRetail sales increased 0.6% in December after a 0.8% gain in the prior month.  Building materials (+2.0%), autos (+1.0%), gasoline (+1.6%), and furniture (+1.0%) accounted for the relatively large gains among the components, while purchases of food (-0.6%), electronics (-0.6%) and clothing (-0.2%) dropped.  Unit auto sales count in the computation of consumer spending in the GDP report, which advanced to annual rate of 12.5 million units in December.  Autos sales rose 29% in the final three months of the year compared with a 0.3% gain in the third quarter. 

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Economics

Friday, January 07, 2011

Will The Tea Party Congress Bring Economic Recovery? / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: John_Browne

While the markets have known for almost three months that the 2010 election delivered the House of Representatives to the tea-infused Republican Party, I did expect a greater reaction on Wall Street to the formalities of the opening sessions of Congress yesterday.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 04, 2011

The ISM Manufacturing Survey Kicks Off the New Year on a Bullish Note / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. manufacturing sector closed the year on a strong footing and kicked off 2011 with bullish news on the first trading. The ISM manufacturing composite index moved up to 57.0 in December vs. 56.6 in November, the highest reading since May 2010. The sharp increases in indexes tracking new orders (60.9 vs. 56. 6 in November) and production (60.7 vs. 55 in November) accounted for the higher composite index in December. Indexes measuring employment, vendor deliveries, inventories, exports and imports declined in December but are holding above 50.0. Readings above 50 denote an expansion while those below 50.0 are indicative of a contraction.

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Economics

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Index of Leading Economic Indicators Underscores Continuing Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) posted a solid 1.1% gain in November after a revised 0.4% increase in October. The LEI has risen at an annual rate of 8.7% in the three months ended November compared with a 0.4% gain during the previous three months (ending August). The accelerated increase of the LEI implies continued growth of the economy and at a stronger pace compared with the trend seen in recent months. The possibility of a double-dip discussed frequently in the summer months is almost irrelevant now.

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Economics

Friday, December 17, 2010

U.S. Housing Market Starts Show Small Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleConstruction of new homes increased 3.9% to an annual rate of 555,000 in November, following an 11.1% drop in the previous month.  Starts of single-family units advanced 6.9% in November to an annual rate of 465,000.  The November level of single-family starts is marginally above the three-month moving average of single-family starts (see Chart 1), which suggests that stronger gains are necessary before we declare that home construction activity is out of the woods.  Multi-family starts fell 9.1% in November, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. 

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Economics

Saturday, December 11, 2010

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows in October, Provides Lift to Q4 GDP Growth / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe trade deficit narrowed to $38.7 billion in October from a gap of $44.6 billion in the prior month.  The 3.2% increase in exports of goods and services and a 0.5% decline in imports of goods and services brought about a narrowing of the trade gap in October.  Overall, this reading is a big plus for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter. 

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Economics

Wednesday, December 01, 2010

U.S. Consumer Confidence Advances in November, Another Bullish Report for the Month / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 54.1 in November from 49.9 in October.  Both the Present Situation Index (24.0 vs. 23.5) and Expectations Index (74.2 vs. 67.5) advanced in November.  There is a bullish tone in economic reports of November - payroll employment, auto sales, factory production, retail sales, regional purchasing managers' surveys and consumer confidence measures among other reports that have been disappointing - home sales, jobless rate, durable goods orders. 

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Economics

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Slow Economic Recovery and Recessions on the Margin / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecessions Are on the Margin
A Rose is Still a Rose
If It Feels Like a Recession
The Rough Road Back

And the data out over the last few weeks tells us it is getting better. Does this take us out of the double-dip woods, even as the Fed is lowering its forecast? And what is a recession? Yes, we all know it's when the economy doesn't grow, but we are in a rather unique economic environment, this time. Maybe things are getting better, but is it enough to get us back on the road to full employment?

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Economics

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Consumer Spending on Track for Sustained Growth in Q4 / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Real consumer spending rose 0.3% in October, following a 0.2% gain in the prior month.  A large part of the increase was from purchases of cars and other recreational vehicles.  Outlays on services held steady during October after a 0.1% increase in September.  The October consumer spending data combined with conservative projections in the last two months of year points to moderate growth during the fourth quarter. 

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