Category: Economic RecoveryThe analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Index of Leading Economic Indicators Underscores Continuing Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) posted a solid 1.1% gain in November after a revised 0.4% increase in October. The LEI has risen at an annual rate of 8.7% in the three months ended November compared with a 0.4% gain during the previous three months (ending August). The accelerated increase of the LEI implies continued growth of the economy and at a stronger pace compared with the trend seen in recent months. The possibility of a double-dip discussed frequently in the summer months is almost irrelevant now.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 17, 2010
Construction of new homes increased 3.9% to an annual rate of 555,000 in November, following an 11.1% drop in the previous month. Starts of single-family units advanced 6.9% in November to an annual rate of 465,000. The November level of single-family starts is marginally above the three-month moving average of single-family starts (see Chart 1), which suggests that stronger gains are necessary before we declare that home construction activity is out of the woods. Multi-family starts fell 9.1% in November, marking the third consecutive monthly decline.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 11, 2010
U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows in October, Provides Lift to Q4 GDP Growth / Economics / Economic Recovery
The trade deficit narrowed to $38.7 billion in October from a gap of $44.6 billion in the prior month. The 3.2% increase in exports of goods and services and a 0.5% decline in imports of goods and services brought about a narrowing of the trade gap in October. Overall, this reading is a big plus for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 01, 2010
U.S. Consumer Confidence Advances in November, Another Bullish Report for the Month / Economics / Economic Recovery
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 54.1 in November from 49.9 in October. Both the Present Situation Index (24.0 vs. 23.5) and Expectations Index (74.2 vs. 67.5) advanced in November. There is a bullish tone in economic reports of November - payroll employment, auto sales, factory production, retail sales, regional purchasing managers' surveys and consumer confidence measures among other reports that have been disappointing - home sales, jobless rate, durable goods orders.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Recessions Are on the Margin
A Rose is Still a Rose
If It Feels Like a Recession
The Rough Road Back
And the data out over the last few weeks tells us it is getting better. Does this take us out of the double-dip woods, even as the Fed is lowering its forecast? And what is a recession? Yes, we all know it's when the economy doesn't grow, but we are in a rather unique economic environment, this time. Maybe things are getting better, but is it enough to get us back on the road to full employment?
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Real consumer spending rose 0.3% in October, following a 0.2% gain in the prior month. A large part of the increase was from purchases of cars and other recreational vehicles. Outlays on services held steady during October after a 0.1% increase in September. The October consumer spending data combined with conservative projections in the last two months of year points to moderate growth during the fourth quarter.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Index of Leading Economic Indicators Posts Second Impressive Monthly Gain / Economics / Economic RecoveryThe Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) rose 0.5% in October, following an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in September. The June-August readings of the LEI cast a shadow on the nature of the recovery. Moreover, the three-month annualized increase of the LEI, at 4.8%, is the largest increase since June 2010 (see chart 2). The reversal of the 3-month annualized change of the LEI supports predictions of faster economic growth in 2011.
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Thursday, November 18, 2010
Is the Philly Fed Survey the Precursor of More Bullish Economic Numbers? / Economics / Economic Recovery
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's business survey results for November show a strong rebound. The broadest measure of factory conditions increased to 22.5 in November from 1.0 in the October (see chart 1). The index tracking new orders rose to 10.4 in November from -5.0 in the prior month. Indexes measuring shipments (16.8 vs. 1.4 in October), number of employees (13.3 vs. 2.4 in October) and the employee workweek (22.3 vs. 15.9 in October) also advanced in November.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
INCIDENT: The visit by Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to Beijing a week ago, follows by a scant three weeks the visit by China's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to Ankara on 78 October as part of the latter's European diplomatic tour also including Belgium, Germany, Greece, and Italy in the margin of his participation in an EU-China summit.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
U.S. Factory Production Moves Ahead in October, Energy Costs Pushing Up Inflation / Economics / Economic Recovery
Industrial production held steady in October after a 0.2% drop in the prior month. Activity at the nation's mines (-0.1%) and utilities (-3.4%) declined in October and offset the gains in manufacturing output. Factory production rose 0.5% in October after holding nearly steady for two consecutive months. Nearly all major categories of manufacturing posted gains in October - autos (+5.0%), wood products (+2.5%), machinery (+1.4%), computers (+0.7%) and furniture (+0.8%). The small reversal of a decelerating trend (year-to-year change, see chart 1) is the important aspect to note from the October data.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 11, 2010
U.S. Jobless Claims Decline and Trade Gap Narrows, Exports Continue Boost Economy / Economics / Economic Recovery
Initial jobless claims fell 24,000 to 435,000 during the week ended November 6. Initial jobless claims have dropped in three out of the last four weeks. The 4-week moving average at 446,500 is the lowest since September 13, 2008 (see chart 1). Each of these developments is noteworthy and encouraging. In addition, the date is haunting because this is the last weekly reading before the Lehman Brothers debacle in September 2008.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 06, 2010
U.S. October Employment Report Shows Economy is Slowly But Surely Retreating From the Cliff / Economics / Economic Recovery
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.6% in October, virtually steady for five straight months. The unemployment rate was 5.0% in December 2007 when the recession commenced. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009 and the cycle low (for the expansion that ended in December 2007) is 4.4% in March 2007.
Payroll Employment: 151,000 in October vs. -41,000 in September. Private sector jobs increased 159,000 after a 107,000 increase in September. Net gain of 93,000 jobs after revisions of private sector payroll estimates for August and September.
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
ISM Manufacturing Survey Shows Continuing Sluggish U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
The ISM composite index of the manufacturing sector rose to 56.9 in October, the highest since May 2010. The headline and details indicate that the factory sector is back on its feet after a sluggish performance in the third quarter. The index tracking new orders, a forward looking indicator, increased to 58.9 in October vs. 51.1 in the prior month.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 30, 2010
U.S. Economy Continues to Grow, But Momentum Not Enough to Lower Jobless Rate / Economics / Economic Recovery
Real gross domestic product (GDP) of the U.S. economy grew at annual rate of 2.0% in the third quarter, after a 1.7% increase in the second quarter. However, final sales advanced only 0.6% in the third quarter, following a mild 0.9% increase in the second quarter. As shown in chart 1, final sales show a decelerating trend after an increase of 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2009.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 01, 2010
U.S. Real GDP Revised Higher, Stronger Consumer Spending, Jobless Claims Trending Down / Economics / Economic Recovery
Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.7% in the second quarter vs. the preliminary estimate of 1.6%. The 2.2% growth in consumer spending represents an upward revision from the earlier estimate of a 2.0% gain. The strength came from an upward revision of consumer outlays on services. A larger inventory accumulation was also reported for the second quarter compared with the prior estimate ($68.8 billion vs. $63.2 billion in preliminary report). A decline in non-residential structures and smaller growth of government spending provided most of the offset. Going forward, the U.S. economy is projected to grow at a tepid pace in the second half of 2010 of roughly 1-3/4%.Read full article... Read full article...