Category: Credit Crisis 2012
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Tuesday, June 19, 2012
Meredith Whitney: Jamie Dimon is the Antithesis of Blankfein / Politics / Credit Crisis 2012
Meredith Whitney appeared on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene this morning and talked about Jamie Dimon's testimony before Congress, saying that "He is, like nobody else, the antithesis of Blankfein. He charms. He's incredible. He gave the senators a massage and they gave him a massage back."
Whitney also said that, "I don't think this could have happened at a worse time for the banking industry."
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Tuesday, June 19, 2012
Ending of Extend and Pretend Means Capital Flight, Capital Controls and Capital Fear / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2012
The ending of extend-and-pretend is ushering in a new era of fear and uncertainty which is rapidly evolving into the next phase of the on-going credit crunch.
It is becoming clearer to many that the problems run much deeper than they had perceived, and more people all the time are realizing the systemic nature of the risks we are facing. Fear leads to knee-jerk reactions. In financial markets, it leads to volatility and self-fulfilling prophecies to the downside. It leads to capital flight, and then to capital controls.
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Wednesday, June 13, 2012
EU Banking-Union Proposal Dead Before Arrival, Lessons the EU Needs to Learn / Politics / Credit Crisis 2012
A group of eurozone Nannycrats has agreed to meet later this month to devise a master plan for a eurozone fiscal and banking union. Here is a synopsis from my post on Sunday Details of the Secret "Nannyplan" Emerge; Proposed Nannygroup Uniforms
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Thursday, May 31, 2012
Credit Continues to Shrink in Euroland / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012
Total monetary financial institutional (MFI) lending has dropped in five out of the last six months. In April, MFI lending fell 0.2% from a year ago after stalling in February and March (see Chart 1).
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Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Are Capital Controls Coming to America? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2012
Are capital controls coming to the United States? They may be for Switzerland, The Swiss National Bank has announced that it is considering the imposition of controls. But these will be controls on euro accounts being shifted into Swiss francs.
Why would a central bank impose controls on money flowing in? Because this will raise the market price of francs in relation to euros. The central bank is dominated by mercantilist thinking. A rising currency is seen as a liability. Why? Because exporters are hit by the falling value of the foreign currency. Foreigners must pay more to buy francs to buy Swiss goods.
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Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Economic Recovery or Collapse? Bet on Collapse - Financial Crisis Could Destroy Western Civilization / Politics / Credit Crisis 2012
The US financial system and, probably, the financial system of Europe, like the police, no longer serves a useful social purpose.
In the US the police have proven themselves to be a greater threat to public safety than private sector criminals. I just googled “police brutality” and up came 183,000,000 results.
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Monday, May 21, 2012
Full-Fledged European Bank Run Underway; Monetarist Fools are Everywhere; Believe in Gold / Politics / Credit Crisis 2012
One chart is all it takes to prove a full-fledged European bank run on the banks is well underway in the Club-Med countries and Ireland.
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Thursday, May 17, 2012
Get Ready for Another 2008-Style Financial Crisis / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2012
Well, my hat is off to the global central planners for averting the next stage of the unfolding financial crisis for as long as they have. I guess there’s some solace in having had a nice break between the events of 2008/09 and today, which afforded us all the opportunity to attend to our various preparations and enjoy our lives.
Alas, all good things come to an end, and a crisis rooted in ‘too much debt’ with a nice undercurrent of ‘persistently high and rising energy costs’ was never going to be solved by providing cheap liquidity to the largest and most reckless financial institutions. And it has not.
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Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Financial Crisis 2012, No, None of This Makes Any Sense / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2012
After the financial crisis in 2008, "Too-Big-To-Fail" banks had to go. In 2006, the four largest banks - J.P. Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo - held 33% of U.S. bank assets. Now, they hold 41% of U.S. bank assets and grow by the minute.
The Federal Reserve is, at least on paper, the country's leading bank regulator. Instead, it behaves like the TBTF banks' turbocharger. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is full of talk, and nothing else:
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Wednesday, May 09, 2012
Bankruptcy Trends in the Post Meltdown Era / Politics / Credit Crisis 2012
Economic dislocation is an inherent element in any financial system. One way to deal with balance sheet imbalances is to declare bankruptcy. The most common examples of liquidating default without payment are to petition the court to absolve debt obligations. Personal bankruptcy is tragic, but is common in a culture where immediate consumer gratification is the end all of a private excess society. Business bankruptcy is different because the underlying enterprise assumes all the risks of engaging in commerce. Even prudent expenditures and sound business activities can go sour that ultimately results in insolvency.
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Saturday, May 05, 2012
Paralyzed Fed, Economic Recovery Reality, The Emperor is Naked / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2012
A "paralyzed" Federal Reserve Bank, in its "final days," held hostage by Wall Street "robots" trading in markets that are "artificially medicated" are just a few of the bleak observations shared by David Stockman, former Republican U.S. Congressman and director of the Office of Management and Budget. He is also a founding partner of Heartland Industrial Partners and the author of The Triumph of Politics: Why Reagan's Revolution Failed and the soon-to-be released The Great Deformation: How Crony Capitalism Corrupts Free Markets and Democracy. The Gold Report caught up with Stockman for this exclusive interview at the recent Recovery Reality Check conference.
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Friday, May 04, 2012
The Fed and ECB’s Hands Are Politically Tied… Bye Bye to Market Props / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2012
As many of you know, my primary forecast regarding Europe is that the EU will be broken up and/or collapse within the coming months.
The reasons for this are political, financial, and monetary in nature. In bullet form they are:
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Friday, May 04, 2012
Financial Crisis Next Major Trigger Will be ETFs and Derivatives / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2012
ETFs and derivatives may be fine for a trade or a hedge to a trade, but by no means are most of them that I have looked at worthy of a long term hold. I distinguish them by their opacity, leverage, and lack of transparent audits from legitimate physical trusts.
And some of the ETFs, especially in commodities and on the short equity side, appear to be almost fraudulent both in construction and representation, and are often more instruments of manipulation and raw speculation for extracting wealth from the less sophisticated than investment vehicles.
Thursday, May 03, 2012
MF Global Implosion: Congressman Grimm Sends a Message / Companies / Credit Crisis 2012
In my previous post, I quoted from MF Global's crisis plan, a document called "Stress Scenario Analysis -- Downgrade Potential Impact on MF Global." Work on that document began in January 2011, although it apparently wasn't completed until around 18 days before the bankruptcy. MF Global worried that it wouldn't have enough cash and liquid assets of its own to meet calls for collateral (margin calls), among other things, in the event of a ratings downgrade.
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Wednesday, May 02, 2012
Big vs Small Bank Loans / Politics / Credit Crisis 2012
If your Main Street business needs capital and seeks a loan, your prospects are slim to none. It is evident that the real economy has never recovered from the collapse of the financial system. TARP was a temporary rescue of the large money center banks. For the local community banks, the massive give away has strings attached and penalties to be paid. Not much consolation for a small business endeavor that is desperate for cash and an improved business environment.
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Tuesday, May 01, 2012
The Market Calls BS on Spain’s Efforts to Cover Its Toxic Banking Debt / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012
In a previous article I began delving into the toxic sewer that is the Spanish banking system. At the root of the problem is the previously unregulated Spanish cajas or regional/ local banks which own as much as 56% of all Spanish mortgages.
To give you an idea of how bad things are with the cajas, consider that in February 2011 the Spanish Government implemented legislation demanding all Spanish banks have equity equal to 8% of their “risk-weighted assets.” Those banks that failed to meet this requirement had to either merge with larger banks or face partial nationalization.
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Tuesday, May 01, 2012
Demand for Loans Rose, But Bankers Remain Cautious / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012
The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey of the second quarter shows an increase in the demand for loans from large, medium and small firms (see Chart 1 and 2).
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Monday, April 30, 2012
Force Taxpayers to Buy Spanish Bonds is Ludicrous Proposal From Harvard Academic Economics Professor / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012
As the economic crisis lingers on, the number of ludicrous proposals to deal with the crisis rises every month.
I have lost count by now of preposterous ideas and who made them (does anyone have the complete list?), but a proposal by Harvard Economics professor Martin Feldstein to force taxpayers to buy Spanish bonds surely makes the list of top-five ludicrous proposals.
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Sunday, April 29, 2012
Giant Sucking Sound as Demand for Credit in Europe Collapses; Pritchard Misses the Boat / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2012
In a report on fixed income, David Owen, Chief European Financial Economist at Jefferies, notes that demand for credit in Europe has plunged.
Owen asks Is it the supply or demand for credit that matters?
Read full article... Read full article...25 April 2012
Perhaps the most memorable comment Mario Draghi made to the European Parliament today was the need for a euro area Growth Pact, but he did draw comfort from the results of the ECB's latest Bank Lending survey.
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Savings, investment, and the Keynesian preference – a follow-up / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2012
There is a general belief that government finances are somehow immune from the financial reality faced by everyone else – an illusion fostered by bond markets and supported by the public’s wishful thinking. Look no further than the plight of the eurozone for evidence of the reality. Not only that, but history tells us that countries regularly default, yet we continue to buy government bonds in the belief they are less risky than any private sector debt. And if we begin to question the status quo, we are even told by financial regulators that government debt is less risky than anything else. Banking regulation enshrines it in Basel Committee guidelines, and modern portfolio theory – which guides securities regulation – casts it in stone.
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