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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Federal Reserve Bank

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

It’s Not Polite, but I’m Pretty Pissed at the Fed / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

This essay is going to insult a bunch of smart, maybe even brilliant, people. It is not polite nor is it politically correct. I will try to be better. But right now, I am pretty pissed.

Here’s the thing.

No serious scientist would run a two-variable experiment. By that I mean, you run an experiment with one variable to see what happens.

If you have two variables and something happens—either good or bad—you don’t know which variable caused it.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 08, 2019

Kendall and Hochberg: Interest Rates Win Again as Fed Follows Market / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: EWI

Most economists and financial analysts believe that central banks set interest rates.

For more than two decades, Elliott Wave International has tracked the relationship between interest rates set by the marketplace and interest rates set by the U.S. Federal Reserve and found that it's actually the other way around--the market leads, and the Fed follows.

The latest Federal Reserve rate decision on December 19 brought the usual breathless anticipation. Confusion reigned as the U.S. president as well as a former Fed board member publicly urged the U.S. central bank not to raise rates and many wondered if the Fed would "rescue" investors with a surprise decision to leave them unchanged. The Fed, however, did what it almost always does: it brought its rate in line with market rates.

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Politics

Sunday, January 06, 2019

The Fed IS the Ugly Truth / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Raul_I_Meijer

This Fed thing just keeps going on, and it needs to stop. There is nothing in the discussion about the Federal Reserve these days that has any value other than it provides even more proof that the Fed has killed off the most essential elements of what once made the US economy function. All markets, stocks, bonds, housing markets, all price discovery, all murdered. No heartbeat. Pining for the fjords.

And instead of addressing that, and I’m not even talking about addressing fixing what is wrong, all I see is neverending stuff about Jay Powell using, or not using, terms such as “patient” or “accommodative”. Like any of it means anything coming from him and his ilk. Other than for making ‘investors’ a quick buck. Like a quick buck could ever trump the survival of entire market systems.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Federal Reserve – Conspiracy Or Not? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

Conspiracy surrounding the Federal Reserve is a subject of much debate. A controversial topic, yes;  one which stirs the imagination of some, fires the suspicion of others, and provokes the declamation of not too few detractors. 

From G. Edward Griffin/The Creature From Jekyll Island…

“Back in 1910, Jekyll Island was completely privately owned by a small group of millionaires from New York. We’re talking about people such as J. P. Morgan, William Rockefeller and their associates. This was a social club and it was called “The Jekyll Island Club.”

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 21, 2018

FOMC Update - Jerome ‘Dead Eye’ Powell / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Gary_Tanashian

One of the most disturbing scenes in the series Breaking Bad was when Todd shoots and kills a boy on a dirt bike after he witnessed Heisenberg, Jesse and Todd heist 900 gallons of methylamine. Jesse: “Todd, that Opie Dead Eyed piece of shit…”

That is similar to the feeling I got after the Fed hiked the funds rate as expected, but then declined to offer the stock market much relief for its ongoing temper tantrum.

What’s this? The Fed is not doing as the vast majority of market participants expect it to do? The Fed is not taking active measures to boost asset prices?

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Trump vs the Fed: Who Wins? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Richard_Mills

Who controls the US economy? The “power of the purse” resides within the US Congress and the powers to set fiscal and monetary policy are delegated to the US Central Bank, otherwise known as the Federal Reserve.

While the success of US Presidents often depends on how well the economy does during their terms, in fact they have little direct influence on it. The President can guide the economy and put his stamp on unlimited pieces of legislation, but he must work with Congress and the Federal Reserve in order to execute his agenda.

To demonstrate just how powerless the President is over the economy, you need only look at Article II of the US Constitution which outlines the responsibilities of the Executive Branch:

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 07, 2018

Arguing About Fed Policy Is A Waste of Time / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

When government (or a President) claims that Federal Reserve policy is hurting the economy, they are either grandstanding, or are ignorant about the function and purpose of the Federal Reserve.

No one wants to see the economy suffer, anymore than they want to see a plague, or infectious disease, affect millions of people. And no President wants to be in office to preside over a recession or depression. But neither can they exercise any power or influence regarding the implementation of Fed policy; particularly when it comes to interest rates.

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Politics

Tuesday, November 06, 2018

Trump's War on the Fed / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Ellen_Brown

October was a brutal month for the stock market. After the Federal Reserve’s eighth interest rate hike, on Sept. 26, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 2,000 points, and the NASDAQ had its worst month in nearly 10 years. After the Dow lost more than 800 points on Oct. 10 and the S&P 500 suffered its first weeklong losing streak since Trump’s election, the president said, “I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I think the Fed has gone crazy.” In a later interview on Fox News, he called the Fed’s rate hikes “loco.” And in a Wall Street Journal interview published on Oct. 24, Trump said he thought the biggest risk to the economy was the Federal Reserve, because “interest rates are being raised too quickly.” He also criticized the Fed and its chairman in July and August.

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Politics

Monday, November 05, 2018

Is President Trump Right About the Fed? / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Harry_Dent

While Larry Kudlow (Treasury Secretary and Chief Economic Cheerleader) assures us that Trump is NOT interfering with the Fed, our dear president has proclaimed that our Central Bank is “crazy” for raising rates.

From his, ahem, unique world view, he believes they’re trying to wreck his new gravy train economy… the one he created with major tax cuts ($1.5 trillion), major repatriations from overseas ($2 trillion), deregulation, and a lot of positive talk about 4% to 5% growth again…

But, with no fear of sounding like a broken record: sustaining growth rates at that level are demographically IMPOSSIBLE!
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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Federal Reserve And The Markets / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

Analysis and opinions of the financial markets vary depending on who is doing the analyzing. The most critical element that affects the song is the singer.

There is nothing wrong with that. But we should be aware that our own prejudice  clouds our perspective. However, there is more that is not so obvious. With that in mind, lets take a look at things.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Fed is Doing More Than Just Raising Rates / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Rodney_Johnson

Over the past month the 10-year Treasury bond yield has jumped from under 3.00% to 3.23%, sending tremors through the equity markets. By now you’ve heard/read/thought about the usual suspects.

As interest rates move higher, equity investors searching for income finally (finally!) have a viable alternative to stocks.

As interest rates move higher, consumers using borrowed funds to purchase homes, cars, and stuff on credit cards will have to pay more, which should curb their economic appetite.
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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 07, 2018

The Latest Double Standard from the Fed / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Rodney_Johnson

Collectively, we just got screwed again, and I bet most people didn’t even know it. It happens so many times, particularly at the hands of the Federal Reserve, it’s hard to keep track.

A new bank called The Narrow Bank, or TNB, recently applied for an account with the Fed.

This would give the bank recognition by a local reserve bank, in this case New York, and access to its services, like distribution of currency, check processing and other forms of electronic payments.

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Politics

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Trump’s Backdoor Power Play to Rein In the Fed / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

“Just run the presses – print money.”

That’s what President Donald Trump supposedly instructed his former chief economic adviser Gary Cohn to do in response to the budget deficit. The quote appears in Bob Woodward’s controversial book Fear: Trump in the White House.

Trump disputes many of the anecdotes Woodward assembled. But regardless of whether the President used those exact words, they do reflect an “easy money” philosophy that he has expressed many times before.

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Politics

Monday, September 10, 2018

How Trump Could Fire Powell and Rebuild the Fed / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : In recent weeks, Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell several times. He doesn’t like that Powell is leading the Fed to raise interest rates.

Past presidents avoided such comments so they wouldn’t appear to be interfering. But Trump doesn’t care about appearances.

The Fed is somewhat insulated from electoral politics. The chair and board members have fixed terms. Its composition changes slowly... but it doesn’t have to.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

The Federal Reserve: Secretly Sticking It to Americans for Over 100 Years / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

In the aftermath of the 2008 Financial Crisis, the private Federal Reserve bank cartel was front and center as a target for public outrage.

Former U.S. Congressman Ron Paul’s "End the Fed" message suddenly resonated. Americans hated Fed officials bailing out the banksters – richly rewarding them for crooked and irresponsible behavior which helped create the crisis.

But years have passed. Americans have been enjoying the expansion stage of the next great bubble. The central planners at the Fed and their colleagues at the nation’s largest banks have been busy stimulating the real estate, equity, and bond markets.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 01, 2018

Trump Declares War on the Fed / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Michael_Pento

It appears when it comes to fighting the old Washington establishment---comprised of the deep state and the Federal Reserve--Mr. Trump is getting sucked into the vortex of the D.C. swamp rather than draining it. The hope was for our “Disrupter in Chief” to be more concerned about our children’s future than his own; and for his focus to span beyond the next election cycle. Instead of allowing consumers to finally receive a real return on their savings; and to let asset bubbles seek a level that can be supported by the free market, Trump has chosen to breach a boundary that has been essential to providing hope for the future solvency of our nation.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 25, 2018

Powell is Playing “Chicken” With $10 Trillion in $USD Shorts / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Graham_Summers

Thus far in his tenure as Fed Chair, Jerome Powell has emphasized that he is more concerned with the real economy than the financial markets.

Put another way, the Powell Fed, unlike the Bernanke or Yellen Feds before it, is willing to sacrifice stocks in the name of normalizing monetary policy provided the economy can withstand it.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

Why the Fed is Worse for the Market than Trade Tariffs / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Rodney_Johnson

“Always tell the truth.”

In addition to being number eight on the Top 10 list of things we should always do, being truthful is just a great way to avoid trouble in life.

You never have to remember what lie you told to whom, and you never have to make up more lies to cover those you’ve already put out into the universe.

But we don’t.

I don’t know a single person who is completely honest. And this goes way beyond, “Do these clothes make me look fat?”

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

The Federal Reserve – Purpose And Motivation / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

With each succeeding day, obsession with the Federal Reserve continues. And the obsession is a good indicator of just how misinformed most of us are.

This is true with respect to various policies, statements, and actions; and includes comments made by board members, either in speeches or interviews. But it is also true regarding purpose and motivation.

To a large extent, it is a matter of perception. Some, maybe most, people see the Fed as the lead driver. There is an assumed aura of authority and control. On all matters economic, we look to them for direction. But where are they taking us? 

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 13, 2017

2 Charts That Might Define the Fed’s Jerome Powell Era / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: F_F_Wiley

In September, we proposed a theory of the Fed and suggested that the FOMC will soon worry mostly about financial imbalances without much concern for recession risks. We reached that conclusion by simply weighing the reputational pitfalls faced by the economists on the committee, but now we’ll add more meat to our argument, using financial flows data released last week. We’ve created two charts, beginning with a look at cumulative, inflation-adjusted asset gains during the last seven business cycles:

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