Category: European Union
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, February 10, 2017
Tension between Italy, Germany, and the EU Is Growing / Politics / European Union
By: John_Mauldin
BY ANTONIA COLIBASANU : As mentioned in our 2017 forecast, Geopolitical Futures said that the evolution of the Italian banking crisis will force a confrontation between Italy, Germany, and the European Union. The groundwork for this confrontation was laid last year, and the face-off has further evolved already this year.
In December 2016, two Italian members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from the populist Europe of Nations and Freedom groups asked the European Central Bank (ECB) in a letter to explain the “widening balance divergences between individual countries [in the eurozone] since the 2008 crisis.”
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Sunday, January 29, 2017
Le Pen, France - Sometimes It’s Better To Be Lucky Than Good, Populist Edition / Politics / European Union
By: John_Rubino
In 2015 there was no way the UK would vote to leave the European Union, so Prime Minister David Cameron promised to call a “Brexit” referendum as a cost-free sop to his party’s right wing in the upcoming election. The Conservatives won big, and Cameron kept his promise to run the meaningless referendum. But against all odds and contrary to nearly every election-day poll, Brexit won, flushing Cameron out of politics, pulling the UK out of the EU, and handing a huge victory to a populist coalition led by the UK Independence Pary’s Nigel Farage.
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Saturday, January 21, 2017
These Are the 3 Main Issues for Europe in 2017 / Politics / European Union
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : What will the year ahead look like for Europe? 2017 will be another chapter in the European Union's slow unraveling… a process that has been underway for over a decade.
The EU is a union in name only. The transfer of sovereignty to Brussels was never total, and member states are independent countries… each with their own interests at stake.
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Thursday, January 19, 2017
There’s Probably No Solution For Europe’s Problems / Politics / European Union
By: John_Mauldin
Our fifty states are essentially what the European Union’s founders wanted: a giant free-trade zone with a currency union and fiscal union. It’s working for us in part because our states, while unique, don’t have the centuries of cultural and linguistic diversity that Europe’s do.
The separate languages, cultures, and histories of its nations don’t mean Europe can’t develop better ways cooperate economically; but the EU structure—specifically the European Monetary Union and the euro—clearly isn’t the answer.
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Wednesday, January 11, 2017
Italy, Germany, and the EU Are on the Brink of a Conflict / Politics / European Union
By: John_Mauldin
BY CHEYENNE LIGON AND ALLISON FEDIRKA : As a new year begins, we look at a key forecast that will bridge 2016 and 2017: the Italian banking crisis. In Geopolitical Futures’ 2016 forecast, we said that the focal point of Europe’s financial crisis would shift from Greece to the Italian banking system. For 2017, we forecast that the evolution of this crisis will eventually force a confrontation between Italy, Germany, and the European Union. Here, we establish a starting point for the looming Italian banking crisis in 2017, which will unfold over many months and have a range of consequences.
Thursday, January 05, 2017
There’s No Such Thing as Europe Anymore / Politics / European Union
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : The European Union’s founders envisioned an “ever-closer union” that gradually eliminated national distinctions. It didn’t happen, and geopolitical expert George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures says the opposite is now taking shape. “Europe” doesn’t really exist in any meaningful way.
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Monday, December 12, 2016
2017 Will Be A Pivotal Year For Europe / Politics / European Union
By: John_Mauldin
Many people in the EU disapprove of EU economic policies. Greece is by far the unhappiest with Brussels. Italy is next, with France and Spain not far behind. The UK, where people are angry enough to have voted themselves out of the EU, looks even-tempered in comparison.
That suggests to me that if you offered these other countries a chance to ditch the EU and reassured them that they wouldn’t cause the sky to fall, there are some who might take the leap.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2016
BrExit Tsunami Claims Emperor Renzi's Scalp, Counting Down to End of the EU, Next? / ElectionOracle / European Union
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Italian people raged against the machine by ejecting Prime Minister Matteo Renzi from office, a person NO Italian ever elected into office! The former Mayor of Florence who Machiavelli style literally back stabbed his way into the Prime Ministership, which was effectively a coup d'etat! So it's no wonder that Renzi wanted to tamper with Italian constitution so that he could concentrate further powers into his end, eyeing his vision of proclaiming himself the New Emperor of Rome!
Tuesday, December 06, 2016
Failed EU - Means an Expanded Dictatorship / Politics / European Union
By: BATR
As the people of the world awaken to the pernicious nature and destructive wreckage of European civilization, the EU technocrats and oligarchs respond with even greater measures of control, repression and intimidation. Yet the prospects that they will be able to maintain their autocratic rule lessons with each populist rebellion against the beasts from Brussels. Induced panic is a tool used to scare the peasants into additional submission. The most obvious method will be a major economic and monetary implosion designed to create fear so that their revered and lauded interdependency necessitates another surrender of national sovereignty.
Wednesday, November 30, 2016
The Beginning of the End of the European Union / Politics / European Union
By: Jeff_Berwick
Is this the most important time in the EU’s history?
Italy and Austria take votes at the beginning of December that could destabilize or even end the euro and the EU itself.
This is part of a destabilizing trend that we’ve long noted and anticipated, some 16 months ago with the destruction of the EU’s Schengen agreement that used to stand for free-travel throughout Europe.
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Wednesday, November 16, 2016
How Trump's Election Victory Will Galvanize Kindred Spirits in Europe / ElectionOracle / European Union
By: STRATFOR
Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election was cause for celebration among Europe's largest anti-establishment political forces. Party leaders from France's National Front, Italy's Five Star Movement and the Netherlands' Party of Freedom offered congratulations to the president-elect, thrilled by his demonstration that the political and media establishment can be thwarted. Like Trump, they hope to ride the wave of anti-establishment fervor building on both sides of the Atlantic to power in 2017, when some of the European Union's biggest economies will hold national elections.
Thursday, September 22, 2016
Here’s How the EU’s Crisis Is Tearing NATO Apart / Politics / European Union
By: John_Mauldin
BY KAMRAN BOKHARI : NATO has been searching for relevance for a generation. Now, as the EU faces a meltdown, the fate of NATO is even more unclear.
European nations are more and more discontent with the EU. The aftermath of Brexit, and the banking crisis that has spread from Italy to Germany, only inflame the tension. As a result, major European powers are less likely to play a bigger role in NATO.
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Wednesday, September 21, 2016
Italy Is the EU’s Weakest Link / Politics / European Union
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President François Hollande, and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi met Aug. 22 on an Italian aircraft carrier. They said they were meeting to talk about European policy after Brexit. The real discussion was about Italy’s economy and the steps needed to revive it.
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
Europe Has Two Options: Revolution or Elections / Politics / European Union
By: John_Mauldin
In my recent Outside the Box (subscribe here for free), Charles Gave offered an incisive and absolutely scathing indictment of the latter-day European project.
Charles thinks that European leaders have responded to new challenges in this post-war era with old solutions. Chief among them is the forced integration of Europe into a single political and economic construct.
The elite are starting to admit that they’ve made Europe’s problems worse.
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Friday, August 12, 2016
Planned Fracturing of EU Jubilee Year Continues: Greece, Italy, Spain Consider Exiting / Politics / European Union
By: Jeff_Berwick
When we started The Dollar Vigilante in 2010 we stated that the worldwide central banking fiat money system would collapse within the decade.
It was just math. Government debt continues to mount and the only way to pay interest on the debt is to print more money. The US government, alone, has doubled its debt in the last eight years, from under $9 trillion to now well over $19 trillion.
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Thursday, August 04, 2016
Why the Failed Coup in Turkey Will Bring Down the European Union / Politics / European Union
By: David_Galland
Dear Parade-Goer,
As I am still in Argentina running around like a llama chased by a puma, it’s my great pleasure to turn the bulk of this week’s missive to new team member Stephen McBride.
You may remember Stephen from his excellent work on our exposé on the machinations of George Soros.
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Thursday, July 14, 2016
The EU Is in a Legal Battle That Will Define Its Future / Politics / European Union
By: John_Mauldin
I spent considerable time last week discussing Brexit with my good friend George Friedman.
George’s opinion is invaluable to me because he is the most dispassionate person I know. He analyzes geopolitics by looking at facts and following them wherever they lead.
George is no one’s cheerleader or nemesis. He calls the shots exactly as he sees them, and he’s usually right.
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Tuesday, July 12, 2016
Brexit Doesn’t Change the Sad Reality of Europe / Politics / European Union
By: John_Mauldin
Europe was already in a shambles before the Brexit vote (read Mauldin Economics’ special report on Brexit implications). The UK’s decision may have made a bad situation more volatile. Europe, however, would still be a mess if “Remain” had won.
- If Remain had won, refugees from Africa and the Middle East, many with the UK as their destination, would still be struggling across the Mediterranean or taking land routes into Eastern Europe. The EU would still be desperately trying to stem the tide and to accommodate those whom it can’t stop.
Wednesday, July 06, 2016
“Incredibly Stupid” Juncker Opens Pandora’s Box / Politics / European Union
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Remember the referendum in April in which voters in the Netherlands rejected the EU-Ukraine trade deal? Seems forever ago, doesn’t it? But to date nothing has been done with the outcome of the vote, even though Dutch law requires a government to implement referendum outcomes as swiftly as possible.
PM Mark Rutte told parliament this week that ‘changing’ the deal would be very difficult, and that talks on the topic in the European Council ‘don’t make him happy’. Since one of the things Rutte has demanded from the EU is a pledge that Ukraine will not become an EU member, none of this should be surprising.
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Thursday, June 30, 2016
Brexit & The Precipice / Politics / European Union
By: Dan_Amerman
With the victory of the "Leave" camp in the June 23rd referendum in the United Kingdom, the world finds itself on the edge of a financial precipice.
Crucially - we are not over the edge, not yet. But it is right in front of us.
This is far more serious than anything that we have seen since 2008. And if we go over that edge then something potentially much worse than 2008 is in front of us. Which is exactly why Alan Greenspan is saying this is the worst financial situation of his lifetime, and why George Soros is now predicting that the disintegration of the EU and the euro is "practically irreversible".
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