Category: Stock Markets 2013
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Fed Talk Triggers Stock Market Reversal..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jack_Steiman
So today we had Mr. Bernnake speaking in front of Congress and they were asking the usual ridiculous questions about quantitative easing and how long he intended to keep it going, etc. Would he stop soon? What were the parameters he was using to decide when to stop, and so on. He gave perfect answers. He said if things stay bad he'll continue to flood with cash. If things get really good he'll slow down. Send in the marching bands. Wow! Really? The market eventually sold off. Folks on television saying it was due to the Fed "confusing" people with his remarks. Really???? You think that's why the market sold off? Well folks, the reason the market sold off was because it was brutally overbought with sentiment readings getting well into the red-flag area. The market was simply looking for any excuse to sell as there were basically no buyers left.
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Thursday, May 23, 2013
Stock Market Back in Dangerous Bubble Territory / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Dr_Martenson
As the global equity and bond markets grind ever higher, abundant signs exist that we are once again living through an asset bubble – or rather a whole series of bubbles in a variety of markets. This makes this period quite interesting, but also quite dangerous.
With equity and bond markets at or near all-time record highs, with all financial assets consistently shrugging off bad – or worse – news as the riskiest of assets continue to find consistent upward bids, we find ourselves in familiar and bubbly territory.
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Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Stock Market Nosebleed Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I just wanted to comment on the extremes to which this market has gone. The normal standard deviation used to mark the top of a cycle is 2.0 above the six-month moving average price. Normal market tops will either touch the upper Cycle Top line and almost immediately will be repelled. Thus, I call it Cycle Top resistance. In a very few rare instances the price of the SPX will briefly move above it, but drop back beneath the resistance area quickly.
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Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Dow, FTSE, Stock Market Panic, Euphoria, Irrational Rally Continues, What I am Doing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market continues to soar with the Dow closing at 15,387, and the FTSE at 6803, my conclusion as of late March is that the current stage of the stocks rally underway was as a direct consequence of the Cyprus debacle that literally poured gasoline onto the stock market rally fire as for the first time Bank Depositors LOST money (stolen) and not just by a few percentage points, but in real life examples of as much as 85% of their bank balance being stolen. The rally was then further boosted to by the Japanese pouring rocket fuel onto the fire through the policy of Hyper QE Inflation.
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Lookout For A Stock Market Spike High Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Submissions
HighRev writes: When attempting to put shorter term price action into a longer term perspective, I couldn't help but notice the tendency over recent years for markets to put in spike high tops on the intermediate term time frame. I also couldn't help but remember what Alexander Elder said when briefly recounting the origins and historical background of TA in his book Trading For A Living; specifically, on page 70, when commenting on changes in overall market behavior occurring on the generational time frame he said:
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Stock Market A Drop Of Selling... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jack_Steiman
For now that's all it is, but the question is will it become more or will it be just another drop of selling that gets bought up by the bulls. The answer to that will be answered to some degree early tomorrow. We will watch those futures overnight and they should give us some insight as to whether we're getting follow-through or not. The bears need to get rocking with some momentum now. The longer they wait to hit the market the faster the bulls react to buying any weakness.
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Monday, May 20, 2013
Stock Market Structure + Cycles + Divergence = Corrrection? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - SPX continues to progress according to its structure. If the count is correct, an intermediate reversal could still be a little ways off.
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Saturday, May 18, 2013
The Fading 2008 Stock Market Doomsday Scenarios / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Sy_Harding
The gloom and doom theorists swarmed out of the woodwork during the 2008 financial meltdown in reaction to government actions taken to prevent the ‘great recession’ from morphing into the next great depression.The blame fell on both political parties. The Bush administration began the bailout efforts in March, 2008 and by the time its term ended it had provided $29 billion in loan guarantees to allow JP Morgan Chase to take over collapsing Bear Stearns, the $178 billion ‘Average American Bailout’ stimulus plan, the $300 billion Homeowners Bailout, the $200 billion bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the $25 billion Automakers Bailout, the $150 billion bailout of AIG, and the $700 billion Banks Bailout (TARP).
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Saturday, May 18, 2013
Poor Economic Data... But Nothing Stopping The Stock Market Bull / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jack_Steiman
Poor data, again, late in the week couldn't get the market to stumble very much. Some, yes, but in a big way, no. We saw the number from the Philadelphia Fed come in below the zero level again after going green the prior month. Minus five, and change, showing their economy is in recession for the very short-term at least. On top of that, we then saw a huge increase in the jobless claims number. Thirty thousand bump up and well above expectations. The type of one-two punch that should knock the market down, but once again it did not, while the majority scratch their heads wondering why we all know the reasons by now. There's nowhere else to go. Interest rates are too low and the liquidity machine on every day all day long. A lethal one-two punch the bears are not able to overcome at this point in time.
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Friday, May 17, 2013
Stock Market Extreme Euphoria Tops / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Zeal_LLC
The levitating stock markets continue to seductively entrance traders, powering to new nominal record highs day after day after day. No one believes a meaningful selloff is even possible anymore, thanks to the vast deluge of central-bank monetary inflation. Sheer euphoria has set in as all perception of risk has vanished. This makes these stock markets extraordinarily dangerous, they are truly at topping extremes.
As of Wednesday, the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX) had rallied to new nominal record highs in 11 of the past 13 trading days. It blasted 4.8% higher over this short span. If sustained for an entire year, this blistering rate of ascent would nearly double the stock markets! This latest euphoric surge extended the cyclical stock bull that was born way back in March 2009 to a massive 145.2% gain over 50.2 months.
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Thursday, May 16, 2013
Stock Market Stable..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jack_Steiman
Stable is the best word I can find to use for today's action. The bulls tried a few times to run away with things while the bears made a few attempts of their own. Back and forth they went. In the end, the bulls held their own when you consider how overbought we are. We seem to be staying overbought, and thus, the bears have yet to take advantage. You have to wonder when they will, but for now, they have been unable to get any sustainable down side action going. It seems almost as if they're fearful to even try, getting tired of shorting. It hasn't worked as shortly thereafter they're forced to cover. If you get pounded on your head over and over you would think you'd give it up after a while.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Stocks Disconnect From Reality… and Every Other Asset Class / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Graham_Summers
The stock market is completely and totally out of control.
Eight of the last ten closes have been new record highs. It’s now been six months since we had a 5% correction. Traders got us to 1,650 on the S&P 500.
At this point, no long term investor in their right mind should be buying. This is especially true given that the S&P 500 is now not only totally disconnected from economic reality, but is disconnected from every other asset class.
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Tuesday, May 14, 2013
It’s Official the Stock Market is In a Bubble / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Graham_Summers
The markets are rallying because today is Tuesday. Stocks have rallied every Tuesday for the last 17 weeks and traders are now conditioned to play for this move. It’s also a POMO day (meaning the Fed is pumping the markets), which adds fuel to the fire for a stock rally.
The market is beyond overstretched. We have not had a 5% correction in six months. Stocks have gone almost straight up for 89 days (we haven’t had a 3+day correction in that long). This is an all time record. The last time stocks rallied without a 3+ day correction was in the buildup to the Crash of 1987.
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Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Stock Market Record Rally Leaving Half of Americans Behind / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: DailyGainsLetter
John Whitefoot writes: The stock market continues to chug along, hitting new highs virtually every day. Back in early March, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 14,200 for the first time ever. It has continued to climb over the last two months and is currently sitting near 15,100. So far this year, the Dow Jones is up more than 15%. The S&P 500 is running in step and is up 14.5% in 2013.
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Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Stock Market Top Warning - Major Divergences Taking Place / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Since the middle of April everyone and including their grandmother seems to have been building a short position in the equities market and we know picking tops or bottoms fighting the major underlying trend is risky business but most individuals cannot resist.
The rush one gets trying to pick a major top or bottom is flat out exciting and that is what makes it so darn addicting and irresistible. If you have ever nailed a market top or bottom then you know just how much money can be made. That one big win naturally draws you back to keep doing it much like how a casino works. The chemicals released in the brain during these extremely exciting times are strong enough that even the most focused traders fall victim to breaking rules and trying these type of bets/trades.
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Monday, May 13, 2013
Expectations for Stock Market Decline Not Unreasonable and Even Prudent / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - SPX has again delayed is intermediate correction. A new potential target price provided by P&F chart analysis has been set for the top.
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Saturday, May 11, 2013
Stock Market Correction Near But Bull Market Has Further to Run / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: David_Banister
The SP 500 has been on a tear as we all know especially since the SP 500 bottomed at 1343 several months ago. My work centers around forecasting using Elliott Wave Theory along with other technical indicators. This helps with projecting the short, intermediate, and longer term paths in the stock market and also precious metals. This larger picture Bull Cycle started in March of 2009 interestingly after an exact 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire move from 1974 to 2000 lows to highs. At 666, we had completed a major cycle bottom with about 9 years of movement to retrace 26 years of overall bull cycle. That was a major set of 3 waves (Corrective patterns in Elliott Wave Theory) from the 2000 highs to 2002-3 lows, then 2007 highs to 2009 lows. Once that completed its work, we were free to have a huge new bull market cycle off extreme sentiment and generational lows.
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Saturday, May 11, 2013
US Stock Market Uptrend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Tony_Caldaro
It was another week of all time record highs on Wall Street. The SPX hit 1635, nearly 1,000 points off the March 2009 low. And, the DOW closed over 15,000 for the first time in its 117 year history. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.10%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.45%, and the DJ World index was +1.0%. On the economic front it was a quiet week, but positive reports again outnumbered the negative one 5-1. On the uptick: wholesale inventories, the M1 multiplier, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims and the Treasury budget improved improved. On the downtick: consumer credit. Next week, options expiration week, the economic flood gates open again: highlighted by Industrial production, PPI/CPI, Retail sales and Housing. Best to your week.
Saturday, May 11, 2013
Stock Market Bull Hanging Tough / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jack_Steiman
What's really left to say that I haven't said for quite some time now. Yes, the market has been ragged at times with many head fakes and whipsaw action, but the bulls have hung very tough, not allowing the bears to seize on things for very long. Every time it seems the bears have made some real progress, the bulls come in unexpectedly and turn things around in a hurry, not allowing the bears to feel they're gaining any confidence. The bulls have squashed all attempts and continue to do so. The bulls were able to recently take out key resistance at S&P 500 1597 and have now spent many days trading above this key resistance level now turned support. Today was another one of those bull-market days, even though the averages were mostly flat except for the Nasdaq.
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Friday, May 10, 2013
Dow 15,000 - Stock Market Irrational Exuberance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Andy_Sutton
Every so often the mainstream does get it right; they just don’t realize it. Or maybe they do. There is an old saying that every lie has 90% truth otherwise nobody would believe it. The hysteria over the Dow’s recent punch through the 15,000 level has everyone associated with stocks almost giddy. Or maybe totally giddy. Or maybe totally disconnected from reality. Take your pick.