Category: Stock Markets 2013
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, February 14, 2013
Higher Levels Expected for Bond Yields and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Donald_W_Dony
Over the last decade, US Treasury Bond yields have generally moved with the S&P 500. That connection appears to have tighten over the last 12 months. And as the outlook for the US equity index is for higher levels in 2013, so is the forecast for bond yields.
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Wednesday, February 13, 2013
Gold Stocks vs the Stock Markets..Caution... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Rambus_Chartology
I like to use this chart when I want to know how the HUI is doing compared the the stock markets. It clearly shows that sometimes the HUI is outperforming the SPX in a big way and sometimes the SPX is outperforming the HUI, yellow shaded areas, and sometimes they move together. I would like to focus your attention to the right side of the chart that shows the blue shaded area. The blue shaded area shows how the HUI and the SPX has decoupled starting in November of 2012. How long this divergence goes on is anybodies guess. But it is what it is until it changes.
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
Stock Market Final Surge higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
We may now have an estimate where SPX is finished with its final surge. Wave 1 equals wave 5 at 1523.37 (already achieved), while Wave [i] of 5 equals wave [v] of 5 at 1521.50. The Cycle Top resistance also acts as an attractor at 1523.96. We could easily see this final thrust finish in the next hour or so.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2013
Stock Market Monday Mini-Drama / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Doug Short writes: The S&P 500 slipped at the open and spent the day in a narrow 0.31% range from its intraday low, 45-minutes into trading, to its intraday high eleven minutes before the close. And speaking of the close, that was the only inkling of interest in an otherwise dull day of trading. At 3 PM sharp the index launched a rally that broke above the opening price. Would we finish with gain? Alas, the rally fizzled in the final minutes, and the index closed with a fractional loss of 0.06%. Here is a 5-minute snapshot of today, highlighting the closing mini-drama.
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
Stock Market Standing Still.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Sy_Harding
We're all waiting to some degree for this market to take the big spill lower. It will happen soon. It's only a matter of time before sentiment and the repeated overbought conditions catch up to the market. The problem for everyone, bulls and bears alike, is the reality of not being able to time this eventual plunge to unwind the sentiment issues currently at hand. We're not at extremes yet, so timing it is virtually impossible. If you've tried to do so from a bearish perspective you have had some rough times lately.
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Monday, February 11, 2013
Fed Pressuring Investors to Buy Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Robert_M_Williams
The average investor is worried and yet he doesn’t know why. The media tells him that things are getting better, and thus far he doesn’t feel like he’s sharing in the improvement. Somehow he’s missed the proverbial boat. Supposedly inflation is low and yet he never makes it to the end of the month with his paycheck. Through manipulation of the markets, the Fed is trying to create an atmosphere that allows for improvement in the economy. Yet it’s this very manipulation that seems to keep investors away from the markets. I know that because I look at the volume of shares traded. Friday’s volume was a measly 3.1 billion shares, an average morning in early 2009.
Monday, February 11, 2013
Stocks Bull Markets Never Make it Easy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Toby_Connor
I see a lot of people lately agonizing over what we should have done. By that I mean it's obvious to all by now that the correct move was to buy stocks back in November instead of precious metals and miners. I mean seriously, it's obvious that liquidity was going to flow into every asset class except precious metals. Well it's obvious now in hindsight anyway.
Of course everyone has conveniently forgotten how tough it was coming out of that November low.
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Monday, February 11, 2013
Stock Markets Follow The Fed Brick Road / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Michael_Noonan
All we can do with the stock market indices is draw a few lines and then draw a few conclusions. It was easier with the SnP, but we had more words to add for the NAS. The stock market has been Fed-driven for the past few years as central planners have taken over, so we no longer see free markets, as more and more freedoms in other areas are being trampled over by puppet politicians.
Sometimes there is no need for any sophisticated computer models of myriad mechanical tools like MAs, RSIs, MACD, etc. All one need do is follow the obvious for as long as the obvious remains so. At least that is how central planners seem to work.
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Monday, February 11, 2013
Imminent Stock Market Correction Expected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the severe correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
Intermediate trend - It is probable that the intermediate correction ended at 1398 and that a new uptrend is in progress which could carry a little further after a correction. However, it is also possible that we are putting an end to the move which started at 1343.
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Monday, February 11, 2013
Is This the Death Knell for the Stocks Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Investment_U
Alexander Green writes: Well, it had to happen eventually. The average punter is finally returning to the stock market. (Or, as the little girl said in Poltergeist, “They’re baaa-aack.”)
We have more than just anecdotal evidence. TD Ameritrade, the Omaha-based online broker, registered an average 370,000 trades per day in January, up from 30,000 trades a day in December. And, according to data from TrimTabs Investment Research, investors funneled $55 billion into U.S. equity funds in January, the most ever for any month on record.
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Sunday, February 10, 2013
Stocks Stealth Bull Market Trend Forecast 2013 and Beyond / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow Jones stock market index last closed at 13,992, having traded to a new intra-day bull market high of 14,022 and is well within 200 points of the all time closing high of 14,164 set on 9th October 2007 which has left many investors who have missed what amounts to a 4 year bull market asking the question whether they should buy now or not?
In this 2nd of a two part series I will seek to conclude towards a detailed trend forecast for stock market for the whole of 2013 and into early 2014.
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Sunday, February 10, 2013
US Stock Market Uptrend Continues While Europe Weakens / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Tony_Caldaro
A choppy but interesting week. The market had 1% swings several days this week, after it had remained in a 1% range for the entire previous week. In the end, new uptrend highs and the uptrend reached the OEW 1523 pivot range on friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Foreign markets did not do as well. The Asian markets were -0.3%, European markets were -1.3%, and the DJ World index was -0.4%. Economic reports for the week were light, but remained with a positive bias. On the uptick: factory orders, the monetary base and the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit improved. On the downtick: ISM services, consumer credit and wholesale inventories. Next week we get retail sales, industrial production and consumer sentiment.
Sunday, February 10, 2013
Stock Markets Remain at Extreme Levels, Asset Class Correlations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Tony_Pallotta
For the week ending February 8, 2013, the SPX was up 0.3%, the Russell small caps were up 0.3% and the COMP was up 0.5%.
The only noticeable divergence within the indices remains the Nasdaq 100 which has failed to take out prior highs and has shown a clear loss of momentum. Technically it has violated model support and therefore is profiled as flat.
Small, mid and large cap indices remain in an uptrend as daily support has not failed though they are showing some loss of upside momentum. If you are long equity, stops that are recommend are roughly 1,500 on the S&P500, 902 on the Russell and 13,850 on the Dow.
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Sunday, February 10, 2013
Stock Market New Interim High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Doug Short writes: The S&P 500 charged from the opening gate, after having had an hour to consider the good news in today’s better than expected December Trade Balance report. The December improvement will likely lead to an upward revision to Q4 GDP in the Second Estimate. The index hit its intraday high about an hour after the open and then zigzagged in a narrow range to a closing gain of 0.57%, not far off the intraday high. Today’s performance salvaged the week, which logged a gain of 0.31% from last Friday, setting a new interim high.
Saturday, February 09, 2013
Stock Market Recovery Continues To Topple ‘Big-Picture’ Theories! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Sy_Harding
There’s never a shortage of ‘big picture’ theories, usually of the gloom and doom variety. They certainly sell books; often cause anxiety, sometimes even fear. But they almost never come to pass.In the mid-1940s, as World War II entered its final stage, ‘big-picture’ theorists warned that the pending demobilization of 10 million men and women serving in the military would send unemployment into double-digits and the economy into a serious recession, probably a depression. They warned "when the war ends the government can't just disband the military, close down munitions factories and stop building ships. The result would be disastrous". They sure made it sound convincing, pouring out impressive statistics that supported their theories.
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Saturday, February 09, 2013
Stock Market Final Probe at the Top is Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Head & Shoulders pattern in the NDX was nullified by this morning’s spike higher. It was replaced by another Orthodox Broadening Top. This is still within the prior OBT made over a month ago. The downside gap also remains. The urge to reflate is obvious in these repeating fractals. Broadening formations are rare and reveal confusion and a lack of leadership in the index. That is why the break-down will be severe, possibly monstrous. No one will take the blame for it, of course.
Friday, February 08, 2013
Stock Market Insiders Head For the Exits, Do They Know Something "We" Don't Know? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Whenever the markets begin to look toppy like they do now, I turn to short-term indicators to help me figure out "what's next" for the markets. It complements the fundamental analysis I rely on for the big picture.
Some people - lots of people, in fact - will tell you that this is a wasted exercise. Predicting the markets, they say, can't be done. I disagree if for no other reason that if that were true, guys like Jim Rogers, Warren Buffett, Steve Jobs, Richard Branson and Carlos Slim wouldn't be the legends they are today.
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Friday, February 08, 2013
Why Many Newsletter Writers Will Steer You The Wrong Way / InvestorEducation / Stock Markets 2013
By: GrowthStockWire
Brian Hunt writes: It's time for traders to take caution... the "dirty secret of the investment advisory business" is flashing a warning sign.
This dirty secret helped traders make big, low-risk gains by going long stocks in June. And it's a timeless piece of wisdom that will always help lead you to great trading opportunities. The "dirty secret" is simple...
Thursday, February 07, 2013
Stock Market Sentiment Getting Up There...Not Yet At A Total Sell Signal...Caution For Now.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jack_Steiman
When sentiment gets up to these levels you have to take notice and ask yourself about how much more upside there is before things come down hard. Historically it takes 40%, or slightly above, before a bear market starts for the short-term in order to unwind. In 2007 we saw it reach 42.5% before the crash in the stock market, and the same crash happened in 2011, with a 41.6% reading. We're at 33.6% with bears still above 20%, although real close at 21.1%.
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Thursday, February 07, 2013
Stock Market Gaps and Other Nasty Formations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Here is a closer examination of the NDX. Starting from left to right, you can see the huge island gap left on January 2. The NDX closed on December 31 at 2660.93. The Head is also an island reversal pattern, with the gap left open. You may say that the rally in the right shoulder to 2768.63 filled the gap. That may be so. That still leaves the massive gap underneath the current island formation. The Head & shoulders pattern will either fill the gap or, as I have suggested, leave another gap on the way down. The fascinating part is the closing price in the NDX on December 31 was 2660.93, only 78 ticks from the Head & Shoulders Minimum Target.