Category: Stock Markets 2016
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, January 15, 2016
Another Atrocious Stock Market Week Going Out With A Bang / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: John_Rubino
On days when lots of financial numbers are released, the normal pattern is for some to point one way and some another, giving everyone a little of what they want and overall presenting a reassuringly muddled picture of the economy.
Not today. A wave of economic stats flowed out of Washington, almost all of them terrible, while corporate news was, in some high-profile cases, shocking. Let's go to the highlight reel:
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Friday, January 15, 2016
VIX Asleep as Stock Market Weakness Escalates / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Ashraf_Laidi
One notable reason the VIX is trading at only half the level seen in August (53.0), a time when equity indices plunged near today's levels is related to market's absorption of risk versus macro negatives.
The China devaluation of August 24 came as a complete surprise to financial markets, which were neither ready for the PBOC's FX manoeuvres, nor prepared for the dangers of rapid decline in the currency of the world's biggest buyer of commodities as they are today.
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Friday, January 15, 2016
Stock Market Flippity Flop / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jesse
Stocks were in rally mode today, in an attempt to dampen fear and encourage confidence.
While they were most likely short term oversold, the 'rally' was all artifice, and had the feel of the kind of forced cheeriness in the big household during times of plague.
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Thursday, January 14, 2016
Stock Market Retracement May be Winding Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The recent moves in SPX have added clarity to the Wave formation. On the left you can see the “best fit” of the Elliott Waves to the decline. The impulse ended at 1886.40, as originally proposed. The rest is a corrective retracement of that decline. Thus far, it has retraced 27.4% of the decline. It may go as high as the Wave [iv] peak at 1950.33, but may be finished already.
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Thursday, January 14, 2016
Stock Market Rally with No Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX completed a Wave (b) of [ii] at 1878.93. Wave (b)s are erratic and do not obey trendlines and necklines as a general rule. While this Wave (b) did break the neckline, it didn’t stay beneath due to the necessity of Wave (c) to finish the correction and relieve the oversold condition. So my anticipation of a pop this morning was correct, but not in the way I had anticipated.
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Thursday, January 14, 2016
Stock Market Analysts are Now Bearish... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Head & Shoulders neckline has now been crossed. As soon as it is retested from beneath, we may see a much larger decline in speed and distance. There is a lot of open space between the neckline and the next support.
The analyst community have thrown in the towel, as ZeroHedge reports, “Something has definitely changed in the market: while for the past seven years (a period largely coincident with an easy, ZIRPing or QEing Fed) every day would be greeted with numerous research pieces, all urging traders to buy the dip, and to otherwise stay invested in stocks, now all the equity firms have turned their back on the S&P, and first Goldman, then JPM, then UBS, then every other equity trader has urged clients not only not to BTFD any more, but to STFR.
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Thursday, January 14, 2016
The Perils of "Buying the Dip" in U.S. Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: EWI
Legions of bargain hunters have suffered losses by buying stock market dips at the start of bear markets.
Making matters worse, they decimate their portfolios by continuing to buy all the way down, only to capitulate at the bottom.
This chart and commentary is from Elliott Wave International's April 2001 Financial Forecast:
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Thursday, January 14, 2016
Stock Market More Downtrend Ahead Or Volatile Bottoming Action Before Rebound? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative long positions are favored (with stop-loss at 1,840, and profit target at 1,990, S&P 500 index)
Our intraday outlook is now bullish, and our short-term outlook is bullish. However, our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bullish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bullish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Stock Market and the Mysterious Mr. VIX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Dan_Norcini
I must say that I continue to be amazed at how "CALM" things are in these equity markets in spite of the significant chart breakdowns that are now being seen in so many different sectors.
Look at how meager the move higher in the VIX has been especially compared to where it was back in August of last year during the "Flash Crash" that occurred back then.
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Thursday, January 14, 2016
Stock Market Losing S&P 500 Long-Term Up Trend Line....Sentiment Rocking Lower... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
So it wasn't the biggest break of all time, but for the first time in seven years we saw the S&P 500 close below the long-term, uptrend, weekly line. That level being approximately 1925. The loss on the S&P 500 keeps it in line with its fellow indexes in the small- and mid-cap stocks. They have led down and broke a week, or so, ago, but it's more important to see the biggest leader of them all, the S&P 500, break down. This should have turned the tide in the favor of the bears in a big way, but the key for them is to seize on the opportunity at hand, and take the bulls down even further to put some distance away from that rising trend line.
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Thursday, January 14, 2016
Stock Market DeFANGed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: John_Rubino
Yesterday’s bulletproof stocks, led by the FANGs (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google), are getting whacked today. Amazon is down 100 points from its high, 32 of those points coming today. Netflix is off by nearly 10%. Even Google, which really does seem bulletproof operationally, is down 3%.
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Wednesday, January 13, 2016
SPX May Complete Wave 2 this Morning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The SPX Premarket is higher this morning, but the retracement appears to have been finished in the overnight futures. That means the potential pop this morning may not last. Whether it goes higher than yesterday morning’s high at 1947.30 is yet to be determined.
There was a brief retracement to 118.18 in the USD/JPY from its overnight low. However, this appears to be the work of the HFT computers which can turn on a dime.
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Wednesday, January 13, 2016
The Bearish Turn In The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Dent
Large-cap stocks opened this morning in the green, seeming to offer a little reprieve from an ultra-violent start to 2016. Small- and mid-caps weren’t so lucky. They’re continuing to rip through fresh new lows.
This has been the toughest bull market and bubble to call, as many leading indicators that we have used in the past simply don’t work since central banks hijacked the markets after 2008. But with these major divergences continuing to build, and after many years of the Fed’s zero-percent interest rates, it seems we’re finally coming close to the end.
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Stock Market Investors Stay the Course! Which One? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Axel_Merk
Each time I hear someone suggest investors should ‘stay the course’ as markets tank, I fear such well-intentioned advice fails to adequately capture the predicament investors are in. Worse, the ‘stay the course’ mantra may set many investors up for failure.
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
The Fed Continues Giving Money to Wall Street Even Without QE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Graham_Summers
Stocks will likely rally this week for the simple reason that it is options expiration week.
The Fed almost always gives Wall Street extra money to play around with during options expiration.
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Wednesday, January 13, 2016
SP500 and NDX Calming the Herd / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jesse
Stocks managed to hang on to a bounce.
The NASDAQ marked its first 'green' close for 2016.
There was little in the way of economic news.
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Tuesday, January 12, 2016
A Bottom in the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Ed_Carlson
My December 15 commentary included a forecast for a high in equities near December 24. The eventual high which led to last week's big sell-off came two trading days late on December 29. In this week's commentary we turn our attention to forecasting a bottom to the current decline in equities.
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Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Stock Market Last Hour Rally Puts Indices Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices started the week off on a very negative note with a pop at the opening, an immediate 5-wave decline, and by mid-afternoon they reached their lows at 4220 Nasdaq 100 and 1901 S&P 500. A bounced ensued, followed by a pullback retest that was successful, and then an explosive market rally late in the session, taking the Nasdaq 100 from 4230 to 4300, 70 points straight up in less than 25 minutes, and the S&P 500 went from 1905 to 1930. They pulled back a little into the close, but finished positive on the session.
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Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Stocks Bull Market Hanging By A Thread..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
The S&P 500 uptrend line from 2009 is hanging on by a thread. During the day it went far below only to take it back late but barely. 1925 the level, and with a close at 1923 that's a hold. You need a strong, powerful close below to get the market to fail fully. We are close, but no cigar yet. In time I do believe the market will lose this key level with force, but we may be too oversold short-term, although that is by no means a guarantee. Bear market stays oversold, but the levels of oversold here are unusual. Near zero stochastic's on many index charts. Some as low as 0.59 today.
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Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Stock Market Correction May be Underway... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I would be remiss if I didn’t report this observation, so here goes…
It appears that the decline from December 29 may have completed a five-wave impulsive decline in 56 hours (8 days). This matches the time that it took to decline from November 29 to December 14 and is 1.62 times the length of that decline.
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