Category: Gold and Silver 2016
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Monday, November 21, 2016
Silver Is Not Real Money / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Is silver real money? I don’t think so. But I know that my proclamation will likely draw vociferous contradictions from others who consider themselves “hard-money advocates”.
That’s okay. Let’s look at the facts. And in order to be consistent with the introduction of my companion article GOLD IS REAL MONEY, let’s start similarly here. In this case though, I will list what silver is rather than what it is not. Silver is:
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Monday, November 21, 2016
An Honest Look at Gold Chartology / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
For the last two weeks, since the US elections, we’ve been discussing the possibility of strong inflection points building out on many different areas of the markets. These are areas where the markets can turn on a dime leaving those folks looking one way while the markets go the opposite way. Important inflection points are more of a price thing than a time thing. An inflection point can last days or weeks before they finally resolve themselves.
Lets start by looking at the US dollar, as it plays such a key role in so many markets. Below is a three year daily chart which shows its major impulse leg up out of the mid 2014 low, and topped out in the spring of 2015. For just under two years the US dollar has been chopping out a sideways trading range, rectangle consolidation pattern, and closed above the top rail this week. The breakout is not actually confirmed yet as the price action would have to close above the 103 area and then a backtest to the top rail around 100 would have to hold. For the time being, we have to give the benefit of a doubt, to the US dollar bulls until proven otherwise.
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Sunday, November 20, 2016
Gold's 2016 Bull Market Moving Off Course / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
While we expected additional weakness in Gold and gold stocks (weeks ago) we did not quite expect the kind of selling the sector experienced in the wake of Donald Trump's election victory. The market reacted by sending bond yields dramatically higher which resulted in stronger real interest rates, which is fundamentally negative for precious metals. This has created significant technical damage in the sector and has potentially thrown the 2016 bull off course.
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Saturday, November 19, 2016
Speculators Are Finally Bailing Out Of Gold – And That’s A Good Thing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
All this talk of massive new infrastructure spending financed with a tsunami of freshly-minted currency should be lighting a fire under gold. That it hasn’t is a testament to how out-of-whack the precious metals market had gotten during the first six months of this year.
As gold rose, the futures contract traders whose games tend to dictate near-term price action had set the metal up for a fall. Specifically, the speculators (who are always wrong at the extremes) were ridiculously long. With the suckers all-in, a big correction was needed to restore balance.
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Friday, November 18, 2016
Trump’s Agenda Stacks the Odds in Gold’s Favor / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
"It's the economy, stupid."
This was the catch-phrase Bill Clinton’s campaign used in 1992 to help defeat George H.W. Bush. In this year’s presidential race, the slogan “Make America Great Again” branded the Trump campaign as a referendum against the economic policies of the current administration.
No matter the race—be it in local or national politics—the economy plays a crucial role in determining whether the incumbent party will retain office or relinquish it to another group.
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Friday, November 18, 2016
Gold Sell Off On Fed Noise – “Interesting Times” To “Support Gold” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Gold prices in dollar terms came under renewed pressure today testing strong support at the $1,200/oz level. Gold dropped another 1% to near a 6 month low and is set for a second week of falls after the dollar soared again after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen suggested a U.S. interest-rate hike could come “relatively soon.”
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Friday, November 18, 2016
May Never Get Another Opportunity to Buy Gold at this Level Again / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
America has chosen Donald Trump to be its next President and the world markets, whether metals, gold, bonds, equities or Forex are all highly volatile. In fact, I got long GDX and NUGT last week for a quick 5% and 11% gain with gold miners, a get-in and get-out type of trade to take advantage of these extreme volatility levels.
While the initial projections were for a Brexit type turmoil in most markets, those predictions did not prove to be correct. The markets quickly reversed course and gave a strong Thumbs up to Trump’s policies.
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Thursday, November 17, 2016
Make Money Great Again: Vote for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Who could possibly have predicted the astounding results of the November 8th presidential election?
A lot of folks, it turns out. Better than 60 million at last count. But that doesn't include highly paid, and obviously over-paid, pollsters.
And it doesn't include "journalists," who showered their elitist agendas on television screens, in newsprint headlines and across cyberspace during the 17-month presidential campaign.
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Thursday, November 17, 2016
Islamic Gold – Important New Dynamic In Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
- Next month, 1.6 billion people will have a new ‘gold investment standard’
- Gold bullion investments to become accessible to 25% of planet
- Islamic finance market expected to grow to US$5 trillion by 2020
- Islamic asset classes have all under performed compared to gold
- In 10 years, gold has risen over 367% in US dollar terms and by more in currencies used in Islamic countries
- Gold bullion products additionally appealing to Islamic banks due to Basel III rules
- New Sharia Gold Standard will impact gold price
Thursday, November 17, 2016
Gold In The Headlines (a different perspective) / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Investors Ditch Gold After Trump’s Win (Wall Street Journal 14Nov2016)
“Investors piled into gold when polls showed Donald Trump’s chances for victory were improving. Now that he has won the presidential election, they are selling.”
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Thursday, November 17, 2016
How To Determine The Future Price Of Silver? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
We very often get the question from readers how to read charts, and how to determine the future price of an asset or stock. Given the interest of many investors in precious metals, and lots of reactions we received on our future price of gold 2017 article, we explain in this article how we determine the future price of silver. Readers who are not interested in this chart analysis tutorial can consult our silver price forecast 2017 for our expected future silver price in 2017.
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Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Hidden Signs for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Gold, silver and mining stocks moved higher yesterday, even though the USD Index moved higher as well, which had bullish implications. Based on the closing prices and the rally in mining stocks that took place in the second half of yesterday's session, it seems that closing our extra-large short positions and taking profits off the table early in the session was a good idea. However, that's not the only thing that changed in the precious metals market and the area surrounding it – some signs are not as clear, but just as important. Let's take a closer look at the charts for details (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Gold: What's Next? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
After an initial surge in the hours after Donald Trump’s election, the price of gold has been under pressure. To gauge what’s ahead for the yellow metal, we dissect the forces that may be at play.
We have argued in the past that for investors to consider any investment, including gold, in their portfolio, it needs to satisfy two conditions: it needs to exhibit low correlation to their existing investments; and there should be an expectation of a positive return. Let’s evaluate the changing investment landscape for gold in the context of the election:
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Silver Price and The Winds of Complacency / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Not even a surprise Presidential election result could sever the bonds that have held prices in check for more than 5 years.
From a mainstream media perspective, the financial system is a neat little house of cards. Made to look like sturdy boxes on a hilltop; institutional pillars …. that are all the same. The cards are carefully controlled and non-random. They are rigged.
Precious metals will always be rigged to some degree.
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Silver and the Train Wreck / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
The U.S. National Debt is a “train-wreck.” The official debt is nearly $20 trillion and the unfunded liabilities are $100 – $200 trillion, depending on who is counting.
- It can never be repaid. Implications are dire.
- Official debt doubles about every 8 years. Does $80 trillion of official debt in the early 2030s sound viable?
- Per Krugman there is no problem. Consider the source.
- Denial is not a winning strategy, but it does prolong the period before the crash.
- The losers in the crash will probably not be the financial or political elite. That leaves the rest of us.
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Gold Mining Shares Are a Lousy Investment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
This year’s turnaround in Gold Mining shares had helped to buoy the hopes and dreams of investors who were ‘betting’ that their long, agonizing wait for euphoric, exponential gains is over. They continue to believe that the future for the Gold Mining Industry is quite rosy. Unfortunately, they are probably wrong.
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Gold Commitments of Traders / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
No wonder gold got clocked like it did!
Hedge funds were actually busy adding more longs and covering shorts over the past week’s reporting period. As soon as those downside support levels were taken out after the election results were digested, gold bulls were getting mauled in a big way.
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Trump Won. Here’s what YOU should do next / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
A lot of people are in shock this morning…But the election of Donald Trump didn't shock me.
For the past few weeks, months even, I've had a feeling he would win.
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Monday, November 14, 2016
Gold Prices Have Overreacted To The US Election / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
To say it has been a turbulent week in markets would be a dramatic understatement. The moves around the US election were nothing short of incredible. We wrote last week about fading a risk off move over the election, and whilst we expected market nerves to calm after an initial period of uncertainty, we were completely blindsided by the pace and magnitude of the reversal. Nowhere are we more surprised than in the yellow metal’s reaction to the result. Not only do we view it as an overreaction, but actually view the gold prices as significantly undervalued in the current environment.
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Monday, November 14, 2016
This Past Week in Gold, Silver and Copper / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts a break in copper, as well as recent movements in the gold and silver markets.
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