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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Coronavirus Depression

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, May 28, 2020

Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We find it interesting how researchers attempt to compare history, sometimes ancient history, to the applicable functions of today’s world and to attempt to translate the decline of empires in the past to what is happening in today’s world.  Ray Dalio appears to be suggesting the rise of the Chinese economy and economic capabilities is going to threaten to unseat the US as a world super-power.

Within Ray Dalio’s article, he suggests the following which seems to sum up his cycle theory:

“In brief, after the creation of a new set of rules establishes the new world order, there is typically a peaceful and prosperous period. As people get used to this they increasingly bet on the prosperity continuing, and they increasingly borrow money to do that, which eventually leads to a bubble. As the prosperity increases the wealth gap grows. Eventually the debt bubble bursts, which leads to the printing of money and credit and increased internal conflict, which leads to some sort of wealth redistribution revolution that can be peaceful or violent. Typically at that time late in the cycle the leading empire that won the last economic and geopolitical war is less powerful relative to rival powers that prospered during the prosperous period, and with the bad economic conditions and the disagreements between powers there is typically some kind of war. Out of these debt, economic, domestic, and world-order breakdowns that take the forms of revolutions and wars come new winners and losers. Then the winners get together to create the new domestic and world orders.”

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Economics

Sunday, May 17, 2020

The Great Economy Reopening Gamble / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Patrick_Watson

We knew the April US jobs data would be ugly. Speaking on ABC’s “This Week” program last Sunday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari predicted “the worst is yet to come.”

Kashkari is right; this won’t get better while so much of the economy is sidelined. The stay-at-home orders, while they help reduce coronavirus spread, have other side effects, too. Domestic violence increases, children miss educational opportunities, people with other health conditions go untreated. These are real problems.

The question is how to reopen without making the situation worse. Kashkari had some advice on that, too: “To solve the economy, we must solve the virus.”

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Companies

Friday, May 15, 2020

Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good / Companies / Coronavirus Depression

By: Stephen_McBride

From No. 1. to BANKRUPT. In less than two years.

My uncle used to be a chef in Australia’s top restaurant, Banc. The place was always packed. Regular customers included media mogul Rupert Murdoch and former Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev.

And it was run by top Irish chef Liam Tomlin. Lots of Banc’s customers were international businessfolk in town for work. And this was the place to go if you wanted to impress clients.

But then disaster struck. After the September 11 terrorist attacks, air travel ground to a halt. Banc went from Australia’s most-exclusive restaurant, to bankrupt in less than two years.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Inflation, Deflation, or Both? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: MoneyMetals

The forces of deflation and inflation continue to tug at the economy simultaneously.

The pressures on both sides are huge.

On the deflation side, jobs, industrial demand, and the small business lifeblood of communities are contracting at an unprecedented pace. Meanwhile, trillions in credit card, auto, student loan, and mortgage debt that props up consumer spending and home values is at risk of imploding – and bringing markets down with it.

On the inflation side, the Federal Reserve is pumping more than $6 trillion into the financial system.

Meanwhile, all pretenses of needing to be fiscally responsible are being discarded in Washington as Congress pushes stimulus after stimulus with money it doesn’t technically have.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: James_Quinn

“At some point, America’s short-term Crisis psychology will catch up to the long-term post-Unraveling fundamentals. This might result in a Great Devaluation, a severe drop in the market price of most financial and real assets. This devaluation could be a short but horrific panic, a free-falling price in a market with no buyers. Or it could be a series of downward ratchets linked to political events that sequentially knock the supports out from under the residual popular trust in the system. As assets devalue, trust will further disintegrate, which will cause assets to devalue further, and so on. Every slide in asset prices, employment, and production will give every generation cause to grow more alarmed.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

I’ve been writing articles about the Fourth Turning for over a decade and nothing has happened since its tumultuous onset in 2008, with the global financial collapse, created by the Federal Reserve and their Wall Street co-conspirator owners, that has not followed along the path described by Strauss and Howe in their 1997 book – The Fourth Turning.

Like molten lava bursting forth from a long dormant (80 years) volcano, the core elements of this Fourth Turning continue to flow along channels of distress, long ago built by bad decisions, corrupt politicians and the greed of bankers. The molten ingredients of this Crisis have been the central drivers since 2008 and this second major eruption is flowing along the same route. The core elements are debt, civic decay, and global disorder, just as Strauss & Howe anticipated over two decades ago.

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Economics

Monday, May 11, 2020

Finding Winners in the Wreckage of the Coronavirus Economic Downturn / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Frank_Holmes

While the broader markets have seen sharp declines, Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, homes in on gold, gold stocks and bitcoin, and gives his prognosis for the airlines.

Streetwise Reports: Let's start with gold, which has seen an impressive rise in the last few months as the broader markets have declined on the back of the coronavirus pandemic. What do you think is ahead for the metal?

Frank Holmes: There is a short-term view and a long-term view. What's really hard for so many investors and asset allocators to recognize is that gold bullion since 2000 has far outperformed the S&P 500. In fact, of the last 20 years, in 16 of those years gold has been positive. So if we look at the numbers, it's double what the S&P 500 has done for the past 20 years.

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Economics

Sunday, May 10, 2020

US ­Rates Eye Negative Territory as Capital Prepares for Slow Death / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets appear to be gearing up for another leg higher. On Thursday, the metals complex rose sharply across the board. Gold gained about 2.5% while silver packed on nearly 4%.

Both of the monetary metals showed signs of breaking out of the sideways trading ranges they’ve been stuck in over the past four weeks. Silver closed solidly above its 50-day moving average for the first time since late February.

Bulls will be looking for confirmation with strong weekly closes today and then follow-through early next week.

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Economics

Friday, May 08, 2020

The Giant Presumption behind Re-Opening America / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Patrick_Watson

Newly “liberated” Americans are flocking to beaches, parks, and restaurants, eager to prove the novel coronavirus doesn’t scare them.

In fact, the virus doesn’t care how brave they are. It just wants to spread. I suspect it found many new hosts at those gatherings, and this will be apparent soon.

At the same time, many others are still staying home whenever possible, not yet convinced it is safe to go out. 

But regardless of who’s right, Wall Street people are thrilled. The stock market shot higher in April. Many experts think the economy will soon be back to normal.

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Economics

Thursday, May 07, 2020

Covid-19: Major Risks as US Eyes Re-Open / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Dr_David_J_Harris

SUMMARY

This article provides a quick review of the current state of the US lock-down in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Major risks lie ahead in terms of re-starting the US economy without re-igniting the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus.

  • Current number of active cases is 50x the number when US lock-down started
  • Peak number of US active cases still not yet reached, and likely weeks away
  • Peak number of deaths for US in a day, observed relatively recently
  • Model projections are predicting at least 100,000 US deaths by May 31
  • Contact tracing in today’s complex society is a major problem to overcome
  • The US is now in a recession that could last at least 12 to 18 months
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Politics

Wednesday, May 06, 2020

Crushing the States, Saving the Banks: The Fed’s Generous New Rules / Politics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Ellen_Brown

The new terms could be harnessed for local governments to own and operate their own banks.

Congress seems to be at war with the states. Only $150 billion of its nearly $3 trillion coronavirus relief package – a mere 5% – has been allocated to the 50 states; and they are not allowed to use it where they need it most, to plug the holes in their budgets caused by the mandatory shutdown. On April 22, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he was opposed to additional federal aid to the states, and that his preference was to allow states to go bankrupt. 

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Economics

Wednesday, May 06, 2020

A Tale of Two Economic Depressions / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Richard_Mills

As the coronavirus continues to hammer state and provincial economies, politicians are being forced to consider whether lockdown “cures” are worse than the disease. Pressured by the Trump administration, and in some cases the public, several US states are planning a re-opening, or partial re-opening of their economies, sometime in May. 

About half of Canadian provinces and territories are also in the midst of a re-start of some description; among those still locked down are British Columbia, Alberta, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland/ Labrador. 

The question weighing on the minds of both health officials and economists, is whether letting up on social distancing restrictions will cause the number of covid-19 cases to spike, thereby setting back virus containment efforts and the timeline of economic recovery. Yet regardless of what comes next, it doesn’t take a lot of analysis to see we are already in a heap of trouble. 

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Economics

Monday, May 04, 2020

US Q1 GDP Data Masking The True Global Economic Future? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As Q1 GDP data is released on Wednesday, April 29, which will reflect the first three months of 2020 in terms of total economic output, we believe the number will skew the current true global economic conditions to a large degree.  The pandemic shutdowns started in the US on March 15th – nearly 2 weeks before the end of Q1:2020.  Thus, we had a fairly normal Q1 in terms of economic activity, production, and consumer engagement. Everything changed after March 15th, 2020.

Skilled traders need to watch the current economic data and “week over week” data that is presented.  Skilled traders also need to pay attention to the news items that are being pushed out to the public.  Larger and larger corporations and sectors are moving towards bankruptcy or screaming for a bailout. Airlines, Hotels, Car Rental, and dozens of other sectors have all collapsed over the past 5+ weeks.  We expect real estate activity and pricing to collapse as well.  The results of the last 5+ weeks, after the March 15th shutdown started, have been anything but normal.

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Economics

Sunday, May 03, 2020

No, the Economy Isn’t Re-Opening Soon / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Patrick_Watson

 “America will be open for business very soon,” said President Trump on March 23, just a week after local authorities began issuing stay-at-home orders.

At that point, the novel coronavirus had killed a total of 689 Americans. Now, a little over a month later, 689 deaths would be a really good day. And America still isn’t open for business. But the president and some governors think it should be and are trying to make it so.

Unfortunately, politicians can’t order the economy open again because they didn’t close it. Consumers and businesses began shutting down long before they were forced to, and they won’t re-open just because they legally can.

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Economics

Thursday, April 30, 2020

The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It looks like the history books will need to be rewritten for if the noises emanating out of every nick and economic cranny are to be believed for the global economy is heading for an economic contraction WORSE than that of the Great Depression! Which will make the Financial Crisis of 2008 look like a walk in the park. And this is not from the usual perma doom merchants who like a broken clock will eventually be right.

However, even the UK governments Office for State Economic Propaganda (OBR) has warned to expect UK GDP to plunge by an unprecedented 35% in Q2!

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Politics

Sunday, April 26, 2020

A Baby Boomer's Government Response to Covid-19 Plea / Politics / Coronavirus Depression

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger voices frustration with his own generation, which has "turned a blind eye" to the radical, fiscal and moral principles that shaped it.

I was born in the 1950s, a decade dominated by thousands of WWII servicemen marrying and starting families in the creation of the largest demographic in history, the "Baby Boom Generation." The 1950s saw Elvis Presley dominate the entertainment industry with ten #1 hits and the top box office movie was Disney's "Cinderella." Actors and actresses in the limelight included John Wayne and Marilyn Monroe, and the most popular sports figures were Jackie Robinson, Maurice Richard and Rocky Marciano, while politics were dominated by Eisenhower, Castro and Khrushchev. It was the decade that ushered in a "Cold War," which was the prelude to major attitudinal events of the '60s, including the Bay of Pigs Crisis and the assassination of JFK in '63.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

The Coming Impact of Coronavirus Economic Contraction in ASEAN Countries / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Dan_Steinbock

After the COVID-19 earthquake and a historical contraction, China is rebounding, whereas advanced economies face a depression-like plunge. The consequent tsunami is about to hit Southeast Asia.

As the total number of confirmed cases may exceed 3 million and deaths will surpass 200,000 in a matter of days, the U.S. and Europe account for more than 80% % of both. What was an epidemic in China at the turn of January and February grew into a pandemic in the 1st quarter, thanks to the belated mobilizations in Europe and the US.

As I predicted in a mid-March briefing (TMT, March 23), what is about to follow is the great coronavirus contraction. Its economic impact will be comparable to the 1930s Great Depression. With more data available today, we have a better idea what’s about to happen, despite extraordinary uncertainty.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Coronavirus Burning Down the House / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: James_Quinn

Watch out you might get what you’re after

Hold tight wait till the party’s over
Hold tight We’re in for nasty weather
There has got to be a way
Burning down the house

Talking Heads – Burning Down the House

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Politics

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Bob Moriarty's Thoughts on the Coronavirus / Politics / Coronavirus Depression

By: The_Gold_Report

Bob Moriarty of 321gold shares his thoughts on the coronavirus.

If there was ever a time for real leaders to step forward and lead, the last four months would have been the time to do so. If there was an issue that demanded cooperation from all the nations of the world, we have seen it. Instead we have been fed a steady diet of disinformation and outright lies from almost every government at most levels. If these are the leaders, we ought to fire the whole lot and start anew. Instead of "women and children first," we are seeing "every man for himself."

I've been fairly quiet for the last ten days or so and a lot of people have been bugging me to write more. Certainly this is an important issue so I'll give you my thoughts.

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Economics

Monday, April 20, 2020

COVID-19 and the Greater Recession / Depression of 2020-2021 / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Christopher_Quigley

In February2012, utilising the chart below, I published an essay courtesy of Market Oracle outlining how, based on Kondratieff wave theory, the world economy could head into a depression between 2013 and 2020. We are now entering that depression, or at least great recession, in my humble opinion. This long wave analysis was developed by Nikolai Kondratiev, a Russian economist.  He was shot by firing squad on the orders of Stalin in 1938.  His execution was ordered because his academic work propounded that the capitalist system would not collapse as a result of the great depression of 1929. He saw recessions and depressions as normal cycles of the capitalist system due to its reliance on debt. He explained that:

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Economics

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Why the Coronavirus Could Raise Wages / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Patrick_Watson

US unemployment shot higher in the last month, thanks to coronavirus closures. Some 17 million people filed new jobless benefit claims.

But it’s actually even worse.

Overwhelmed web sites and bureaucratic snafus kept many from applying. Others, while still nominally “employed,” saw their wages or hours cut. It’s terrible and will keep getting worse until the shutdowns ease and people believe they can circulate safely again.

But while the immediate outlook is dire, these events could ultimately mean higher wages for many workers. To see why, we have to think a few steps ahead.

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