Friday, September 09, 2016

USD/JPY Could Be Supported by BOJ Policy Stance / Currencies / Japanese Yen

By: Submissions

easyMarkets writes: When the Bank of Japan released its last monetary policy statement, many analysts expected that they would follow suit with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the rest of the Japanese government by releasing a large stimulus plan. Prime Minister Abe’s plan gave a 28 trillion yen stimulus plan to bolster the economy. However, the Bank of Japan did not follow suit. Instead, they decided on increasing dollar-lending and exchange traded fund purchases. Despite negative interest rates, no changes were made to the base interest rate or to the current bond-purchase program.

Friday, September 09, 2016

Stock Market Sell Signals Confirmed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has broken the 50-day Moving Average at 2164.60 and is challenging the 2-hour Cycle Bottom. Because this is the crash decline, it may not stop for the trendline, either.

The SPX decline has a lot of downside work to do, so don’t be surprised.

Friday, September 09, 2016

Stock Market - The Sh-- Hits the Fan / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX Premarket is down, breaking through the 2-hour mid-Cycle support and challenging the 50-day Moving Average. Should the SPX open beneath the 50-day, it may open the floodgates of selling.

Friday, September 09, 2016

Gold During Presidential Election Cycle / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Let’s analyze the chart below which shows how gold performed each year of the presidential election cycle. The first year of a presidency is a post-election year, the second is called the midterm election year, the third is the pre-election year, and the last year is an election year. For the yellow metal, the post-election year is the worst, as it gains only 2.27 percent, on average. On the contrary, the second year of the presidency is the best for the price of gold, as the shiny metal rallies 12.82 percent, on average. The pre-election (11.21 percent) and election (8.99 percent) years are between, but gold’s highest performance is evidently closer to the midterm year.

Friday, September 09, 2016

The ECB’s Private Deals Are Distorting the European Markets / Stock-Markets / ECB Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

ECB President Mario Draghi famously pledged to do “whatever it takes” to restore eurozone growth. His attempts to fulfill that promise have led to NIRP and other bizarre policies like the central bank’s massive asset purchases.

Whether the ECB’s interventions are helping the eurozone economy is not yet clear. But they are certainly having consequences. One is the appearance, if not the reality, of central bank interference and favoritism.

Friday, September 09, 2016

2017 Will Be a Good Year for the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : If you go back to the 1990s, during the Clinton years, the US followed an explicit strong dollar policy. Every time you got Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin in front of a microphone, he said the US had a strong dollar policy.

And guess what? The dollar was strong.

What are the benefits of a strong dollar?

Friday, September 09, 2016

‘Helicopter Money Coming’ – Exclusive Interview With Top Hedge Fund Manager Tom Conrad / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Jeff_Berwick

TDV: Hello, Tom, thanks for sitting down with us once again. We last talked to you more than a year ago. At the time you predicted a significant stock market crash and only a month later the Dow reflected your position with a huge intra-day crash. There was huge volatility throughout the fall.

Tom Conrad: Yes, and then again in at the beginning of January of 2016.

TDV: It’s not over yet, of course.

Friday, September 09, 2016

Sugar Price Set To Correct / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Austin_Galt

The sugar price has experienced a solid move up off the lows putting in a high back in July at $21.10. Since then price looks to be in a process of distribution and I expect a more substantial correction to take place.

Let's take a bottom up approach to the analysis beginning with the daily chart.

Friday, September 09, 2016

Gold Has Biggest One Day Rally Since Brexit As Elites Rush Into Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jeff_Berwick

The multi-day Brexit gold surge back in June was the biggest upward move since 2008 with gold rallying  4.5% the day after the vote. Yesterday, gold had its biggest one-day rally since, rising 1.6%.

This came on the back of Goldman Sachs revising its September rate hike odds down to 40% from its previous 55% prediction just a few days earlier, and the release of deteriorating manufacturing numbers.

Friday, September 09, 2016

Will Deutsche Bank Crash The Global Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Clif_Droke

The past year has seen its fair share of worries. From the China slowdown to the Brexit, successive waves of overseas fear have rolled onto our shores since 2015, yet none of them were the Tsunamis the bears had predicted.

The latest foreign fear concerns the possibility for a global credit crisis led by the collapse of a major international bank. A simplified summary of this scenario goes something like this: Deutsche Bank is on the brink of bankruptcy and its insolvency could spark a systemic European banking crash. This in its turn could send shockwaves throughout the global financial system, resulting in widespread economic turmoil on par with the previous worldwide crisis.

Friday, September 09, 2016

Money and The Rats of NIHM / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

“When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion; when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing; when you see money flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors; when you see that men get richer by graft

and pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you; when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice you may know that your society is doomed.”– Ayn Rand

Friday, September 09, 2016

Europe’s Long War with Islam / Politics / Religion

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Any discussion of Islamist terrorism in Europe and the refugee crisis has to be placed in a broader historical context. One way to approach this is to think about the Mediterranean Sea, which was central to the Roman Empire.

The Romans occupied both shores of the Mediterranean and created a single integrated political and economic system around it. As the Roman Empire declined, the system fractured. The general outcome was that Christianity was prevalent on the northern shore of the Mediterranean, and Islam became dominant on the southern shore.

Friday, September 09, 2016

Conspiracy Theories / Politics / Conspiracy Theory

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The term “conspiracy theory” has been part of our culture for a very long time. It is often justifiably followed by the word “nut.” It is also a way to stop discussion, or to embarrass others from believing what is being said. The aversion to conspiracy theories flows from a revulsion at the thought that well-known events are caused by a group of people acting in secret.

If that is true, then the common-sense understanding of why things happen is defective. And if it is defective, then those who are seen as best informed are actually mistaken. They lose their standing, and we are faced with a grim world where important events have dark and unknown causes.

Friday, September 09, 2016

Trump’s Visit to Mexico Was a Win-Win / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Since the democratic convention, Donald Trump has been behind Hillary Clinton in the polls by about five points. He has a solid base of voters (about 40%). But, he must move about 6%–7% to win the popular vote and eke out the electoral.

Trump needs a strategy that allows him to roll back his negatives a bit. He also must win over a few of those who are voting for Clinton only because she isn’t Trump. 

Thursday, September 08, 2016

The Next Sector To Recover From The Oil Price Crash / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oilfield services, shipbuilders and other industries that rose with the pre-2014 oil price boom have had it hard. Since barrel rates fell, their previous patrons have become uninterested in doling out major purchase orders, leaving oil and gas equipment manufacturers without revenues.

A recent report by Arkansas Online says the energy industry’s support sector could feel the effects of low oil prices for up to two years after the current bear market recovers.

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Failure of Inflation Targeting?! / Economics / Inflation

By: Axel_Merk

It ain't working. Eight years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, central bank chiefs suggest they have saved the world, but have they? We argue central banks have become part of the problem, not the solution. At its core, their indoctrinated focus on inflation may well do more harm than good, with potentially perilous implications for investors.

Thursday, September 08, 2016

China New Stocks Bull Market Underway? / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Tony_Caldaro

If it wasn’t for the quantification of waves by OEW this volatile index would look more like a commodity index than a stock index. When reviewing the entire history of the SSEC we see a series of volatile up moves followed by longer and less volatile down moves. In fact, nearly all of the bullish trends have lasted only 1-2 years, while the bearish trends have taken as long as 4 years.

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Stocks Remain Close To Record Highs, Which Direction Is Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is now neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Thursday, September 08, 2016

U.S. Stocks Election Jitters Coming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Gary_Savage

Everyone seems to think we are going to get a big sell off right after the elections. I doubt that will happen as we will be entering the most bullish time of the year (not to mention the Nasdaq is breaking out of its 15 year consolidation). The last two intermediate cycles were about normal in duration. I expect this cycle to stretch a bit and possibly not bottom until January.

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Delusional Mark Carney Claims Success for Bank of England's Worthless BrExit Forecasts / Interest-Rates / BrExit

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Britain's very own Tyrion Lanister, The Master of Coin, migrant banker Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England stepped forward Wednesday to claim success both for Banks dire forecasts of economic doom, a technical recession in store for the UK economy should Brexit happen AND now also for subsequent surprisingly strong performance of the UK economy that has seen record numbers across several economic measures such as the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August recording its largest jump in its 25 year history, or that the house price crash of 18% has failed to materialise, or that new car sales have leapt 3% against a year ago which is a sign of consumer confidence.