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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Housing-Market

Friday, February 26, 2021

US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Houston we have Lift OFF! If it were not clear from the house prices graph then it should be clear form the momentum graph that US house prices have taken off! Rising at their fastest pace since 2012! Likely to end 2020 up about 8% on the year. Furthermore the breakout above the 2018 peak suggests further strong house prices gains to come during 2021 i.e. this sort of powerful up thrust in trend usually does not turn on a dime.

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Commodities

Friday, February 26, 2021

FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The recent FOMC minutes are hawkish and negative for the price of gold, but the Fed will remain generally dovish for some time.

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) published minutes from its last meeting in January . They reveal that Fed officials became more optimistic about the economy than they were in December. The main reasons behind the more upbeat economic projection were the progress in vaccinations, the government’s stimulus provided by the Consolidated Appropriations Act 2021, and the expectations of an additional sizable tranche of fiscal support in the pipeline:

Most participants expected that the stimulus provided by the passage of the CAA in December, the likelihood of additional fiscal support, and anticipated continued progress in vaccinations would lead to a sizable boost in economic activity.

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Commodities

Friday, February 26, 2021

Kiss of Life for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Submissions

The narrow trading range in stocks continues, and the shallow sideways correction will eventually resolve itself with another upleg. The signs are countless, and the riskier part of the credit market spectrum agrees. As money flows from the Tresury markets, and sizable cash balances are sitting on many a balance sheet, there is plenty of fuel to power the S&P 500 advance.

With volatility in the tame low 20s and the put/call ratio again moving down, the bears‘ prospects are bleak. As I wrote last week, their time is running out, and a new stock market upleg approaches. It‘s the bond market that‘s under pressure, with both investment grade corporate bonds and long-dated Treasuries suffering in the accelerated decline.

Gold is the most affected, as the sensitivity of its reaction to the rising long-tern yields, has picked up very noticeably. How long before these draw both the Fed‘s attention and action – what will we learn from Powell‘s testimony on Tue and Wed? And when will the much awaited stimulus finally arrive, and force repricing beyond the metals markets?

Before that, gold remains on razor‘s edge, while silver leads and platinum flies for all the green hydrogen promise. The dollar has given back on Thu and Fri what it gained two days before, and remains in its bear market. Not even rising yields were able to generate much demand for the world reserve currency. Its lower prices stand to help gold thanks to the historically prevailing negative correlation, counterbalancing the Treasury yields pressure.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 26, 2021

Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the moral hazard being created by the Pavlovian buy-the-dip perspective in the market. As I expect the market to top out in the next few years and enter into a prolonged bear market, the nature of the market rallies over the last 10 years have thoroughly trained investors that all you have to do is buy-the-dip, as the market always comes back.

In fact, this past week, I saw these two comments in my articles, which only reinforces my perspective:

“I love a good press on an author from a paid subscriber but I’ve been making money hand over fist by trading and pouncing on pullbacks on a few stocks I closely watch. You have to have the time and you have to know the stocks well. Making much more money this way than I ever was buying/holding/speculating.”

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Commodities

Friday, February 26, 2021

The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021 / Commodities / Lithium

By: OilPrice_Com

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 25, 2021

The Everything Stock Market Rally Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Troy_Bombardia

The market’s strong uptrend remains intact despite some lingering concerns about high valuations, extreme sentiment, and other overbought signals. Investors continue to pour into all markets (stocks, commodities, crypto etc.) with ever increasing liquidity.

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Politics

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Vaccine inequality: A new beginning or another missed opportunity? / Politics / Coronavirus 2021

By: Dan_Steinbock

Last year, four major opportunities to battle COVID-19 were missed. If vaccine inequality will prevail in the coming months, that would represent the fifth missed opportunity – with prohibitive human costs and economic damage.

Recently, I was virtually at the prestigious Bruno Kreisky Forum for International Dialogue (Vienna, Austria) and had a conversation with Ambassador Irene Giner-Reichl (for the video, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUcGG22B_YA ). The focus was on the missed opportunities and the future of the global pandemic future.

Recently, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres sharply criticized the “wildly uneven and unfair” distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. Addressing the Security Council, Guterres noted that just 10 countries have administered 75% of all vaccinations. Meanwhile, 130 countries had not received a single dose.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 25, 2021

What's Next Move For Silver, Gold? Follow US Treasuries and Commodities To Find Out / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Gold continues to wallow near its recent low price level, near $1765.  Silver has continued to trend moderately higher – but still has not broken out to the upside.  Many analysts have continued to estimate when and how metals will begin the next wave higher.  My research team and I believe we’ve found some answers to these questions and want to share our research.

Silver Explodes In Late-Stage Excess Rallies

The first thing we want to highlight is that Silver tends to rally excessively in the later stages of any precious metals rally.  For example, in mid-2010, Silver began an incredible upside price rally after Gold rallied from $720 (October 2008) to $1265 (June 2010).  This suggests that the price relationship between Gold and Silver “dislocated” in the early stage breakdown of the financial markets near the peak of the 2008-09 Housing Crisis Peak.  Then, in late 2010, Silver began to move dramatically higher while Gold continued to push an additional 80%+ higher.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Warren Buffett Buys a Copper Stock! / Commodities / Copper

By: Gary_Tanashian

Just kidding. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway may or may not own copper stocks. I did not dig deep enough to find out. For the purposes of this post it does not matter.

With the Buffett Buys a Gold Stock! hysterics last summer, the subsequent (and inevitable) fallout and the Buffett Pukes a Gold Stock! resolution, you never know. It’s worth asking the question about what sort of investors are now true-believing in copper and the industrial metals where once upon a time last summer gold was the object of affection.

Look, the contrarian dynamics in play now are 180° from where they were last spring, coming out of the deflationary crash, when we first started to get a handle on and act upon the coming inflation aimed at reflating the economy. NFTRH has used a lot of indicators, starting then and continuing today to be on the right (inflationary) side of this macro dynamic. With all due respect and foresight about macro decision points to come, we remain on the inflationary side today.

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Housing-Market

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Work From Home Inflationary US House Prices BOOM! / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The pandemic has resulted in many tens of millions more americans working from home. As someone who has been working form home for a good 15 years I can well understand why house prices have rocketed higher as prospective home buyers both seek out properties that are better suited to working from home, more suburban, quiet office spaces, plenty of storage, or view properties with scope to being upgraded into work from home environments.

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Politics

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Man Takes First Steps Towards Colonising Mars - Nasa Perseverance Rover in Jezero Crater / Politics / Space

By: N_Walayat

Man Takes First Steps Towards Colonising Mars - Nasa Perseverance Rover in Jezero Crater

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Commodities

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Musk, Bezos And Cook Are Rushing To Lock In New Lithium Supply / Commodities / Lithium

By: OilPrice_Com

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

US Debt and Yield Curve (Spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Nadeem_Walayat

One of the reasons why my analysis of April 2019 was more subdued in terms of the prospects for US house prices than it would otherwise have been is because the yield curve was flirting with inversion, that I concluded that the Fed would not allow to take place and thus adopt whatever measures were necessary to PREVENT inversion that tends to foreshadow lower inflation and recessions.

The Fed succeeded in preventing a sustained inversion during 2019, with the yield curve massaged to hover around 0.2% that is until the pandemic broke and the Fed panicked and opened the monetary flood gates sending the yield curve soaring to currently stand at 1% as the bond market is discounting higher future inflation as the consequence of rampant money printing.

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Should You Buy a Landrover Discovery Sport in 2021? / Personal_Finance / Land Rover

By: N_Walayat

Thinking of treating yourselves to a landrover discovery sport in 2021? Either New are Used then here is my review of what you need to know after having owned and driven a Discovery Sport for 3 FULL YEARS!

Landrover Discovery Sport HSE BLACK that I bought under Approved Used when the car was about 15 months old, with 13,000 miles on the clock, so still under manufacturers warranty, followed by a few months under Land Rovers Approved Used extended warranty and then it's third year of ownership out of warranty.

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Housing-Market

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst the US stock market had a panic attack crash into Mid March. The crash where US house prices are concerned was UPWARDS! Which should not come as much of a surprise to those who have been following my analysis for the past 10 years! Money printing, MONEY PRINTING! When you know the Fed is about to print a shit load of money whatever they call it, will mean that assets that cannot be easily printed will surge higher, this IS the INFLATION MEGA-TREND IN ACTION!

The primary mega-trend IS THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND! Those who bet against it on hopes of a repeat of the 1930's depression will keep going BROKE!

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Companies

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

M&A Most Commonly Used Software / Companies / Mergers & Acquisitions

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Generally, M&A activities involve the transfer or consolidation of a company's ownership, other business organization, or one of its operating units. 

Strategic management consists of many components, among them M&A, which allow an enterprise to expand or contract and change its nature and value proposition. 

Mergers and Acquisitions are a part of strategic management, allowing for expanding businesses into new markets, the expansion of services, the exploitation of synchronizations, the reduction of costs, the increase in financial leverage, or the simplifying of operational procedures.

During an acquisition, a company or business may be purchased by another or other entities. 

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Is More Stock Market Correction Needed? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before coming to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  May continue until SPX reaches ~4050-4150 (March 2021).

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

VUZE XR Camera 180 3D VR Example Footage Video Image quality / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

Vuze XR VR 180 sample video. Shot around Sheffield at 5.7K in the 180 3D mode. The Vuze XR is a dual 360 and 180 camera.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

How to Protect Your Positions From A Stock Market Sell-Off Using Options / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Today we are going to explore how you can use options to hedge against a sudden market reversal. As you know I am going to be launching a new options service with an options specialist, Neil Szczepanski, shortly so you should start seeing more and more research on options from us.

The first question we need to answer is will there be a market sell-off?  If we first look at the S&P chart below, we can see that we have had an incredible run.  In order to determine if this trend is weakening, we need to look at what is happening with key sectors and sector rotation.  Since the beginning of 2021, we have seen a rotation into commodity sectors which is typical of a late-cycle surge.  This might give us a hint that higher volatility projections might be realized. 

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Why Isn’t Retail Demand for Silver Pushing Up Prices? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Metals markets continue to diverge this week, with copper and platinum adding to recent breakout gains while gold struggles to find footing.

During this week’s selloff, gold revisited its lows from last November. A support level exists at $1,750, but momentum selling could take prices down a bit further before technical gauges flash deeply oversold signals.

Turning to silver, the white metal continues to show relative strength versus gold, although prices haven’t actually moved much over the past few trading days.

Despite lackluster returns in most of the precious metals so far in 2021, inflation pressures are pointing upward.  On Wednesday, the Labor Department reported that U.S. wholesale prices surged by 1.3% in January.  

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