Monday, June 01, 2020
Why Multi-Asset Brokers Like TRADE.com are the Future of Trading? / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Justin_Weinger
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Saturday, May 30, 2020
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Last week, the FOMC released the minutes from its last meeting. What implications do they carry for the gold market?FOMC Finally Acknowledges the Situation As Serious
Last week, the FOMC has published minutes of its meeting from April 28-29. They show that the Fed reassessed the coronavirus economic implications since the previous meeting at which the central banks did not yet grasp the full gravity of the situation. This time, they acknowledged that “the second quarter would likely see overall economic activity decline at an unprecedented rate.” Indeed, as we reported many times, the GDP will collapse, while the unemployment rate will soar to the levels not seen since the Great Depression.
Friday, May 29, 2020
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has become increasingly concerned that the US Fed support for the markets has pushed price levels well above true valuation levels and that a risk of a downside price move is still rather high. Recently, we published a research article highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system results showing the US stock market was 12% to 15% overvalued based on our ADL results. Today, Tuesday, May 26, the markets opened much higher which extends that true valuation gap.
We understand that everyone expects the markets to go back to where they were before the COVID-19 virus event happened – and that is likely going to happen over time. Our research team believes the disruption of the global economy over the past 70+ days will result in a very difficult Q2: 2020 and some very big downside numbers. Globally, we believe the disruption to the consumer and services sector has been strong enough to really disrupt forward expectations and earnings capabilities. We’ve been warning our friends and followers to be very cautious of this upside price trend as the Fed is driving prices higher while the foundations of the global economy (consumers, services, goods, and retail) continue to crumble away.
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Friday, May 29, 2020
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market / Companies / Gambling
By: Submissions
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Friday, May 29, 2020
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK / Local / NHS
By: Eliza_Walayat
Eliza joins the rest of Britain at 8'oclock for what could be the last clap for the NHS heroes, clap for carers from Sheffield as the sound of clapping, banging of pots and pans, whistles and fireworks echoes across the UK.
Even so the fact we have to do so is a sign of gross government negligence in the handing of the pandemic. None of which should have happened as Taiwan and South Korea illustrate with a fraction of the 64,000 excess deaths to date (ONS)..
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Thursday, May 28, 2020
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check / Companies / Banking Stocks
By: Stephen_McBride
April 10, 2020 will go down in the history books. As you likely know, the US government recently handed out “coronavirus checks.”
Over 150 million Americans received the $1,200 cash injection. This isn’t the first time Uncle Sam issued free money. But it is the first time Americans didn’t need a bank account to get the cash.
On April 10, PayPal became the first “internet bank” authorized by the US government to issue stimulus checks. Folks didn’t have to wait for a check to arrive in their mailbox… or talk to a bank teller to get the money. Instead, Uncle Sam simply funneled billions of dollars to Americans through PayPal’s “app.”
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Thursday, May 28, 2020
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Amidst such prevailing doom and bloom just remember that the AI mega-trend is one of the most powerful mega-trends of our time, maybe even more so than the climate change mega-trend because the AI mega-trend could change the very nature of our reality.
Which is why I have been repeatedly warning for 5 years to PREPARE FOR EVERYTHING TO CHANGE!
We can guess at what is to come but the only way we mere mortals can have a piece of the AI pie is through owning the AI stocks. For which we still have some time to get invested into, maybe several years before the two exponential curves of AI (machine intelligence) and Quantum computing converge and then literally EXPLODE!
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Thursday, May 28, 2020
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The China virus, the economic lockdowns, and the multi-trillion-dollar rescue efforts of central bankers have dominated markets over the past three months.
However, as lockdowns gradually lift and the 2020 election draws nearer, investors will begin to focus more on political developments.
The once-strong economy that President Donald Trump had hoped would propel him to re-election has collapsed. The President has also taken a tremendous amount of heat from the media over his handling of the COVID-19 crisis, and that has hurt his poll numbers.
Thursday, May 28, 2020
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
When the economic crisis hits, the first instinct is to analyze the previous catastrophes to learn what to expect from and how to handle the current calamity. So, not surprisingly, many analysts have already pointed to the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) as the most relevant example. However, is really the current coronavirus recession similar to the Great Recession? Let’s compare these two big crises and draw investment conclusions for the gold market!
First of all, in terms of scale and pace of the decline, the current crisis is much broader and deeper. It hits practically the whole globe, not only advanced countries, and it affects all offline sectors, not just the financial sector and construction. And in just four weeks, 22 million of Americans made claims for the unemployment benefit. For comparison, during the Great Recession, 37 million unemployment claims were filed. But the Great Recession started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, so it lasted one year and half. When it comes to output, the cumulative decline in the real GDP amounted to 4 percent during the Great Recession. Meanwhile, just two months of mitigation measures are estimated by some economists to shrink the real US GDP by 10 percent. Even the overly optimistic IMF expects that the US economy will shrink 5.9 percent this year.
Thursday, May 28, 2020
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Many stock market investors believe that prices have already bottomed. Numerous banks, brokers and financial firms have issued statements saying as much.
Indeed, the May Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which has offered analysis of financial and social trends since 1979, noted:
On April 28, Bloomberg interviewed four money managers to answer the question of "Where to Invest $1 Million Right Now." Cash was not mentioned.
All these professional financial observers might be right in their assessment that the bottom is in for stocks.
Then again, the stock market rise since the March 23 low might be a bear-market rally.
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Thursday, May 28, 2020
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We find it interesting how researchers attempt to compare history, sometimes ancient history, to the applicable functions of today’s world and to attempt to translate the decline of empires in the past to what is happening in today’s world. Ray Dalio appears to be suggesting the rise of the Chinese economy and economic capabilities is going to threaten to unseat the US as a world super-power.
Within Ray Dalio’s article, he suggests the following which seems to sum up his cycle theory:
“In brief, after the creation of a new set of rules establishes the new world order, there is typically a peaceful and prosperous period. As people get used to this they increasingly bet on the prosperity continuing, and they increasingly borrow money to do that, which eventually leads to a bubble. As the prosperity increases the wealth gap grows. Eventually the debt bubble bursts, which leads to the printing of money and credit and increased internal conflict, which leads to some sort of wealth redistribution revolution that can be peaceful or violent. Typically at that time late in the cycle the leading empire that won the last economic and geopolitical war is less powerful relative to rival powers that prospered during the prosperous period, and with the bad economic conditions and the disagreements between powers there is typically some kind of war. Out of these debt, economic, domestic, and world-order breakdowns that take the forms of revolutions and wars come new winners and losers. Then the winners get together to create the new domestic and world orders.”
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Thursday, May 28, 2020
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma / Politics / Pandemic
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the ongoing battle against the global pandemic, belated responses will result in huge human costs and massive economic damage. In Europe, losses are climaxing in the 2nd quarter of 2020.
Before advanced economies – including those in Europe - began to flatten the epidemic curve, they fattened it for 6-8 weeks. These COVID-19 delays will prolong the global pandemic and cause secondary waves of imported infections and residual clusters both in Europe and worldwide (for the full story, see my report on the historical COVID damage: https://www.differencegroup.net/coronavirus-briefs ).
In the United States, the Trump administration's futile effort to “protect the economy” (read: the markets) backfired disastrously. The European Union was more willing to battle the virus but was unable to do so proactively because it lacks the needed common institutions for effective response.
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Thursday, May 28, 2020
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans
By: Sumeet_Manhas
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Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
Many stock market investors believe that prices have already bottomed. Numerous banks, brokers and financial firms have issued statements saying as much.
Indeed, the May Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which has offered analysis of financial and social trends since 1979, noted:
On April 28, Bloomberg interviewed four money managers to answer the question of "Where to Invest $1 Million Right Now." Cash was not mentioned.
All these professional financial observers might be right in their assessment that the bottom is in for stocks.
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Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Precious Metals Hit Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The precious metals sector may have begun a correction on Wednesday.
The miners (GDX, GDXJ) sold off after reaching significant resistance levels while the metals are trading just below significant resistance levels.
We mentioned these targets in our article last week.
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Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Though gasoline demand remains historically weak, commuters are beginning to head back to their offices, opting for the isolation of their personal vehicles and abandoning public transit, reports McAlinden Research.
Saudi Arabia enhanced their commitment to OPEC+ supply cuts as the Kingdom said they'd shut production of additional 1 million barrels of crude oil per day next month. Most of the OPEC+ countries have already come close to compliance with the deal that took effect this month and cuts from non-member states like Norway, Brazil, Canada, and the US are compounding the already steep curbs on production. Though gasoline demand remains historically weak, commuters are beginning to head back to their offices, opting for the isolation of their personal vehicles and abandoning public transit.
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Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Submissions
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Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system has called some incredible moves over the past 24+ months. It predicted the moves in Gold moving from $1340 to $1750 – including many of the trend changes that took place over the past 15+ months. It predicted the collapse in Crude Oil back in July 2019 – even calling for a sub-$20 price collapse in March/April 2020. Overall, the abilities of this unique predictive modeling tool have been nothing short of incredible.
For many weeks, we’ve been suggesting the US stock market has entered a no man’s land after the bottom setup near March 20, 2020. The US Fed and global central banks have stepped in to attempt to support the markets and to take pressures off financial institutions and consumers. These efforts presented a very real opportunity for technical traders to attempt to “ride the Fed wave” over the past 3+ weeks. Right now, things appear to be a bit more fragile going forward into the Summer months and the ADL predictive modeling system is showing us what to expect.
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Tuesday, May 26, 2020
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The silver market is on the move. In fact, it’s finally moving out ahead of other precious metals and showing some real leadership.
After the panic selling of March briefly brought spot silver below $12/oz, prices have since surged by 50%. That’s an impressive move to take place within the span of just two months.
The question for investors now is whether the recent rally in silver is fleeting or sustainable – whether it’s evidence of extreme market volatility that suggests more danger ahead or the first leg of a much larger bull market to come.
In our view, there is good reason to believe that the March 2020 lows will never be violated and that silver is therefore in a structural bull market.
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Tuesday, May 26, 2020
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Tuesday’s refusal of the stock upswing didn’t really stick, and the S&P 500 opened higher. Trading with an upward bias during the session, the index closed comfortably above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. As outlandish as it might seem, does it denote a new bull market being on the way? It just can’t be overstated how crucial this level is to the stock market outlook…
S&P 500 in the Short-Run
Let’s start with the daily chart perspective (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com ):
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