Monday, September 19, 2022
How Much Longer Can the US Dollar Trade Last? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Richard_Mills
This year has seen a correction in the gold price, commensurate with rising interest rates, and the spectre of more to come. The precious metal has also been hammered by a strong US dollar, which is negatively correlated to the gold price.
Spot gold has fallen from about $1,800 an ounce at the start of the year, to $1,675 currently, a drop of 7.4%. On Thursday, Sept. 15, gold plunged to its lower level since April, 2020, on expectations of a 0.75% interest rate increase next week by the Federal Reserve.
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Monday, September 19, 2022
Gold Bleeding, Seasonal Pattern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has sure been a four-letter word lately, suffering one of its worst bull summers. The primary culprit was heavy gold-futures selling on a parabolic US-dollar surge fueled by extreme Fed hawkishness. But the resulting gold technical damage really disheartened investors, spawning additional relentless selling from them. This investment bleeding has certainly exacerbated gold’s downside, but its days are numbered.
With inflation raging in its biggest super-spike since the 1970s, gold should be soaring today. Instead it has been bludgeoned 14.3% lower between mid-April to late July, defying long precedent. And at the mid-week data cutoff for this essay, gold had again been pummeled right back to those deep summer lows. Technically gold looks pretty broken, which has whipped up bearish sentiment to suffocating extremes.
Gold was trading near $1,977 in mid-April just before the US Dollar Index started rocketing vertically. In the past five months starting then, US headline CPI inflation has run red-hot blasting up 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5%, and 8.3% year-over-year! That high-water June print was the worst witnessed since way back in November 1981, a 40.6-year high! It’s hard to imagine a more-irrational backdrop for a major gold selloff.
Gold skyrocketed during the last similar inflation super-spikes in the 1970s. In the first the CPI blasted from +2.7% YoY to +12.3% over 30 months into December 1974. Gold’s monthly-average prices from trough to peak CPI months launched 196.6% higher! During the second the CPI exploded from +4.9% YoY to +14.8% in 40 months climaxing in March 1980. Gold’s monthly-average prices were a moonshot, up 322.4%!
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Sunday, September 18, 2022
Jumping the Queue to See the Queen Lying in State at Westminister Like at Alton Towers / Politics / Social Issues
By: N_Walayat
The Queen is lying in state, and her subjects have been queuing for as long as 24 hours to give their final respects to Britians longest reigning monarch.
Britian is said to be a nation of quers. Whilst that may be true for most, the younger iphone generation tend to be a nation of queue jumpers, as the Queens queue brings back memeories of the euques at Alton Tower at the height of the pandemic during 20201, when the vaccines were still yet to be jabbed into most peoples arms.
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Friday, September 16, 2022
Dow Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Despite being skeptical of Elliott wave theory and not abiding by any of it's tenants, i.e. I number the counts as I see them regardless of following the 'rules'. Nevertheless Elliott wave proved a useful tool during 2021 in the count down to the end of the Stocks bull market and the start of this bear market as the charts illustrate that there are times when EW BS actually works!
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Friday, September 16, 2022
Inflation Is Hotter Than Expected, Gold Price Colder Than Hoped / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The annual CPI decelerated in August but came in higher than expected. Bets on a more hawkish Fed increased, while in the case of gold, they decreased.Inflation stayed hot in August. Unbelievable! At least for the majority of pundits who expected softer inflation. However, I’m not surprised, as I’ve repeated many times that “inflation is likely to stay elevated for some time.” But let’s stop bragging – and start digging into the recent CPI report.
The CPI increased 0.1% in August after being flat in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It doesn’t seem to be a huge increase, but let’s note that it occurred despite a 10.6-percent decline in the gasoline index. Without plunging gas prices, inflation would be much higher because of the broad-based monthly item increase.
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Friday, September 16, 2022
Learn Elliott Wave Theory - FREE 1 Hour Course / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
Hi,
Our friends at Elliott Wave International are offering a complimentary course on how to 1) spot an Elliott wave pattern on a price chart, and 2) develop a solid trading plan to take advantage of it.
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Thursday, September 15, 2022
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Trend Forecast Sept to Dec 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Despite being skeptical of Elliott wave theory and not abiding by any of it's tenants, i.e. I number the counts as I see them regardless of following the 'rules'. Nevertheless Elliott wave proved a useful tool during 2021 in the count down to the end of the Stocks bull market and the start of this bear market as the charts illustrate that there are times when EW BS actually works!
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Thursday, September 15, 2022
Bearish Signals Remain for Brent and WTI Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
After the bearish progress, oil prices slipped slightly as worries about the global growth outlook overtook fears about the supply shortage.
Macroeconomics
On the macroeconomic view, the greenback found support on its 50-Day Moving Average (DMA) at the beginning of the week before resuming its rally upward and approaching its monthly highs of $110-110.50. Will the quarterly R3 pivot ($115) be reached anytime soon, or will the $110.50 level be left as its two-decade high?
Thursday, September 15, 2022
New Wolrd Order and CRISIS / Politics / New World Order
By: Raymond_Matison
It was back in 2006 that the foreign ministries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China first met to consider improved economic ties. Their dissatisfaction with the inability to gain increased representation at the IMF, reflecting their increasing economic contribution to the world economy, their concern - even at that time - for a stable new reserve currency, and inability to otherwise reform the IMF, led them to form what became known as the BRIC organization. With the invitation to South America to join their alliance, they became known as the BRICS nations.
In 2015, this author posted an article entitled BRICS? No, CRISIS
http://www/marketoracle.co.uk/Article53009.html which reflected on the likelihood that many other nations within South America, given an opportunity to join an alternative alliance, would revolt from their northern neighbor-controlled environment and join BRICS. Also, at the same time Iran’s news agency had announced that the country would seek to become a participant in the BRICS New Development Bank. This event, and some forward projection inspired the renaming of this alliance to CRISIS, by reordering the nations in this alliance by size and import as China, Russia, South America, Iran, and South Africa, thus creating a new acronym, CRISIS. The article cited above is still timely today, and describes the goals and hopes of a far larger global alliance, which escapes the dollar hegemony and its consequences for countries other than the old colonial powers of England, America, and Europe.
Thursday, September 15, 2022
Is it too late to play Ethereum’s upcoming Merge? / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Stephen_McBride
Ethereum’s big merge is happening on September 14…
RiskHedge Chief Analyst Stephen McBride says it’s the most important crypto event since Ethereum’s debut seven years ago.
The Merge is set to forever transform Ethereum, the second-biggest crypto.
It’ll make it more energy efficient and attractive for big-money investors to own.
Friday, September 09, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Rally End Game / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Mega earnings week saw the stock market soar on reporting euphoria where apparently the worse the earnings the stronger the rally in stocks such as Amazon due to the twin forces of investors piling into breakouts AND the market running short stops, which surely implies that the bear market could be OVER! After all the stock market discounts the future and so is looking beyond current BAD earnings and economic data to the blue sky's of future quarters, that coupled with US bonds rallying as the market tempered future interest rate expectations down from a peak of 4% for Mid 2023 to currently 3.25% all contributing towards the S&P closing higher at 4130.
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Friday, September 09, 2022
Futures Still Dogging Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold continues to languish near major lows after a rough summer, deeply out of favor with traders. Oddly this leading alternative investment seems oblivious to the first inflation super-spike since the 1970s. That should be driving big gold demand, fueling a major upleg. But that classic inflationary response has been temporarily delayed by heavy-to-extreme gold-futures selling. When that reverses to buying, gold will soar.
As everyone running a household or business knows, inflation is raging out of control. Not even lowballed government statistics can hide it. The monthly US Consumer Price Index has averaged blistering 8.3% year-over-year gains so far in 2022! That’s 4.6x 2019’s +1.8%-YoY monthly average, the last normal year before the pandemic-lockdown stock panic and its extensive aftermath. This June, the CPI soared 9.1% YoY.
That proved its hottest print since way back in November 1981, a staggering 40.6-year high! That’s despite today’s CPI being way watered-down compared to the 1970s one, extensively understating real inflation. Americans sure wish prices were only climbing 9%ish annually, but the grim reality out there is at least double to triple that. With such extreme inflation, gold should be soaring on huge investment demand.
Gold skyrocketed during the last similar inflation super-spikes in the 1970s. In the first the CPI blasted from +2.7% YoY to +12.3% over 30 months into December 1974. Gold’s monthly-average prices from trough to peak CPI months launched 196.6% higher! During the second the CPI exploded from +4.9% YoY to +14.8% in 40 months climaxing in March 1980. Gold’s monthly-average prices were a moonshot, up 322.4%!
If today’s CPI still used its far-more-honest 1970s methodology, headline inflation would be about double reported levels. Gold’s stunning disconnect from today’s raging inflation is troubling, leaving the great majority of traders forgetting about that 1970s precedent. After suffering one of its worst summers in modern bull-market years, gold has largely been left-for-dead. Instead of flocking back, investors are fleeing.
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Friday, September 09, 2022
Here's a Potential Signal for What May Be Next for U.S. Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
This action by investors resulted in "the highest total since 2014, and probably ever"
Frost & Prechter's Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, first published nearly 45 years ago and said:
"Eight years of a raging bear market have taught today's investor to be cautious, conservative and cynical. Defensiveness is not in evidence at tops."
Considering this description of investors' mindset in the late '70s and early '80s, many market observers were not contemplating the start of a big bull market.
Yet, Elliott Wave Principle did forecast a major uptrend and that's what happened.
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Friday, September 09, 2022
How to Wash Your Car Hosepipe Ban with a Bucket and Sponge, Rinse and Polish, Save Water / Personal_Finance / Motoring
By: HGR
A hosepipe ban has kicked in across many regions of the UK, Here's how to wash your car with a just a bucket and sponge, including rinsing and polish, no fancy water butt attachments, just using a simple bucket and sponge! So get saving water, some excercise and have a clean sparking car on your driveway! And if you are good enough maybe you can earn some extra money by washing your neighbours cars as well!
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Friday, September 09, 2022
Answering Questions About Private Equity with Mark Hauser / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Sumeet_Manhas
According to McKinsey’s Private Markets Annual Review released in March of this year, private equity is continuing to experience growth. The report found that private market assets under management (AUM) has grown 170 percent over the past ten years, increasing by $4 trillion and today has reached an all-time high of $6.3 trillion. There are twice as many private equity firms out there than there were a decade ago, and the pooled investment rate of return (IRR) of 27 percent in 2021 saw private equity continue to be the highest-performing private markets asset class.
Mark Hauser, co-managing partner of Hauser Private Equity, highlights below what you need to know about private equity. Since its inception in 2008, Hauser Private Equity’s five funds have invested over $350 million in capital in privately-owned businesses nationally. With over three decades of investing and operating company experience, Hauser has facilitated the completion of over 500 investments and successfully realized over 150 of them.
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Friday, September 09, 2022
The Day Queen Elizabeth II DIED at Balmoral Castle, Scotland - LIve BBC / Politics / UK Politics
By: N_Walayat
It's the 8th of September and since just after mid-day non stop BBC coverage was of that the doctors had been making the Queen comfortable, this was not just start stop coverage but continuous broadcast which implied that the Queen was on or death bed and probably had already died and the announcement was pending everyone getting to Balmoral with the last person to arrive being estranged Prince Harry. Here is the BBC coverage live in the leadup to the announcement of the death of the Queen of the United Kingdom at Balmoral Castle, Scotland.
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Thursday, September 08, 2022
What Is Options Trading And How To Know If It Is Good For You / InvestorEducation / Options & Warrants
By: Steve_Barker
Options trading is the buying and selling of assets that give the buyer the right to specify both the price and the time of purchase of a particular security. With options trading, you have complete control over your financial market decisions.
After purchasing an option, you are free to sell it at any time or day of your choosing. However, there is no penalty for not selling an option you have purchased. The two main categories of options are call and put options.
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Thursday, September 08, 2022
Russia Declares Energy WAR on Europe! GazProm Threatens to Cut Gas Supplies! / Politics / Energy Crisis
By: N_Walayat
Straight out of a Bond Movie, the evil dictator threatens to FREEZE europe into submission, only that this is not a movie it is reality in 2022. Gazprom threatens to cut supply of Gas to Europe as part of the defacto energy war on europe. This is for the horses mouth - Gazprom!
The energy crisis is only beginning! We are in the calm before the REAL storm!
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Monday, September 05, 2022
Stock Market Reality Check / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Mega earnings week saw the stock market soar on reporting euphoria where apparently the worse the earnings the stronger the rally in stocks such as Amazon due to the twin forces of investors piling into breakouts AND the market running short stops, which surely implies that the bear market could be OVER! After all the stock market discounts the future and so is looking beyond current BAD earnings and economic data to the blue sky's of future quarters, that coupled with US bonds rallying as the market tempered future interest rate expectations down from a peak of 4% for Mid 2023 to currently 3.25% all contributing towards the S&P closing higher at 4130.
Whilst the market was in the grips of BAD earnings mania I took the opportunity to trim my holdings which is another word for light selling, where my selling only went deep for Amazon which took my percent of portfolio down from 1.6% to 1.3% though after taking account of the price jump it's back up to 1.5% of portfolio which means I will probably sell more Amazon next week/ Whilst percent exposure is irrelevant right now as I am seeking to further reduce my max exposure limit. So more selling in the pipeline for Amazon and to a lesser extent others as the stock market so far has not done anything I have not been expecting it to do with the S&P having fulfilled my minimum target of 4080 and now has entered the TREACLE resistance zone of 4080 to 4180 as my forecast graph of some months illustrates.
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Monday, September 05, 2022
“Countering” China would pave the way to Global Economic Depression / Economics / China
By: Dan_Steinbock
In its pursuit for unipolar primacy, the Biden administration is risking the economic stability of China, the West, emerging Asia, and the futures of the Global South.
Before the global pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported China had replaced the United States as the engine of the global economy. In parallel, Reuters market analyst Jack Kemp warned that since early 2018, "the United States has pursued a deliberate policy of attempting to hurt China’s economy in response to concerns about the shifting balance of economic power and unfair trade practices.”
As economist Anne O. Krueger saw it, Trump’s trade war was “a failure that harmed both China and the US.” Consequently, many hoped that Biden's victory would come with a bilateral reset. But the reverse happened.
Building further on Trump’s flawed policies, the Biden White House began to weaponize those policies while diversifying risks to U.S. allies – from the EU and Japan to Ukraine and Taiwan.