Monday, June 27, 2022

Have US Bonds Bottomed? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A patron asked if US bonds have bottomed / are cheap to buy now that inflation is 'peaking'.

Monday, June 27, 2022

Gold Junior Miners: A Bearish Push Is Coming to Move Them Lower / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Let's not be confused by the temporary USDX weakness. Junior miners are faint and we can expect them to decline again soon.

April and May Replay?

Although history doesn’t repeat itself to the letter, it rhymes. At least that’s what tends to happen in the financial markets.

In today’s analysis, I’ll explain why I think we’re about to see another example of the above in the case of junior mining stocks. There’s a technique that suggests one thing, but there’s also another that suggests that a 1-to-1 analogy wouldn’t be as good a fit, as a slight deviation from it.

So far, the situation in the GDXJ – a proxy for junior mining stocks – has been similar to what happened in the second half of April and early May.

Monday, June 27, 2022

Stock Market Watching Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 squeeze aka overdue relief rally in the end developed, on sharply improving daily momentum and quite supportive bonds. Would that change the medium-term picture though? It would serve only to suck in bulls, thinking the bottom is in – while the Fed doesn‘t have the stock market‘s back, and the reprieve in market-requested tightening, would pass. The recent decline in oil prices coupled with Fed acknowledgement of some real economy difficulties, isn‘t enough for taming inflation. While prices would moderate their pace of increases, the appreciation in essentials would be unstoppable and to a large degree immune to the real economy staring at a very late 2022 / early 2023 recession (if one wouldn‘t be declared soon because of all the tightening).

Whether Powell goes 50bp or 75bp in July, will be quite indicative – I‘m not excluding hawkish (75bp) September either. The gas and energy measures are of stopgap nature, yet buying a little time for the Fed. Should the central bank not take the opportunity to tighten more, the decision would backfire down the road – just as the transitory talking point did. For now, less tight conditions (driving sentiment) would help stocks make it to the 4,000s probably – but the sell, the ambush is hanging in the air, and would take us to 3,500-3,600 target in my view (the bottom). Both value and tech kicked in on Friday but the dollar isn‘t retreating, money is still sitting on the sidelines.

Saturday, June 25, 2022

The NEXT BIG EMPIRE WILL BE..... CANZUK / Politics / New World Order

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In my last analysis I laid out why Ray Dalio was wrong about the rise of China, that according to his thesis was set to displace the US and herald in a New Chinese World Order, where I even went so far as to make the following video to delve deeper into why Ray Dalio was wrong and hinted at where the new empire could emerge from.

Saturday, June 25, 2022

Who (or What) Is Really in Charge of Bitcoin's Price Swings? / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: EWI

Bitcoin lost three-quarters of its value since November. "Market fundamentals" have lost control of its trend. But something else has been at the wheel the whole time.

I'm not ashamed to admit I have the technological intelligence of an Eggo waffle. So, when my computer bugged out the other day, I called the IT department at work. The tech wizard on the other end showed me to a webpage where I had to click a box that read: "Consent to Control." From that point, the IT guy was able to hack into my laptop, find the source of the glitch, and remedy the problem.

As I sat there watching my cursor move around the monitor on its own, clicking tab after tab as if by some phantomlike force, I thought,

"Holy moly, this is the virtual screenshare of mainstream financial wisdom."

Summarized as such: External forces known as "market fundamentals" operate prices remotely. Positive fundamentals cause the price "cursor" to rise, while negative news and events trigger selloffs. And investors? They have little choice but to "consent" to this outside control.

Saturday, June 25, 2022

Crude Oil Price Forecast - Trend Breaks Downward – Rejecting The $120 Level / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent downward Crude Oil trend may have caught many traders by surprise. Just before the US Fed raised interest rates on June 15, 2022, Crude oil was trading above $120ppb. Less than 5 days later, it collapsed -12% and has continued to trend lower. Currently, Crude Oil is near -17% lower than recent highs.

It appears Crude Oil has confirmed resistance near $120 and is devaluing as consumers pull away from traditional driving/spending habits while the Fed aggressively attempts to burst the inflation bubble. This type of contraction in Crude Oil is very similar to what happened in 2008-09 when the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) hit – Crude Oil collapsed more than -70% after IYC started trending lower in 2007.

Thursday, June 23, 2022

Everyone and their Grandma is Expecting a Big Stocks Bear Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Everyone and their grandma has been eagerly awaiting a big bear market bounce since at least the start of May that has repeatedly failed to materialise, why? It's because everyone and their grandma has been expecting a big market rally that's why! Here's another update on the state of the AI stocks portfolio in advance of finalising my 3 YEAR US house prices trend forecast.

My bear market expectations remain for the Dow to target a trend to 29,600 due to be achieved during August / Early September for an approx 20% top to bottom bear market target.

Thursday, June 23, 2022

The Fed’s Hawkish Bite Left Its Mark on the S&P 500 Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

By raising interest rates, the Fed poured cold water on the red-hot markets and finally chilled investors' enthusiasm. What's next for asset prices?

Work in Progress

With the Fed’s hawkish hammer pounding the financial markets, the selling pressure coincided with events unseen since 2008. Moreover, with the work in progress to reduce inflation poised to push asset prices even lower, I’ve long warned that we’re likely far from a medium-term bottom. For example, I wrote on May 31:

With recession fears decelerating and optimism returning to Wall Street, the bulls are brimming with confidence.

Thursday, June 23, 2022

No Dodging the Stock Market Bullet / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 recovered from the intraday reversal to the downside, thanks to tech. Value‘s poor showing can be chalked down to the riskier junk bonds losing early gains, meaning the daily stock market move didn‘t surprise much when bonds closing values are considered. What‘s though flying under the radar, is the turn in Treasury yields – a couple of days after FOMC, bonds are having second thoughs, and aren‘t pushing the Fed to raise too steeply. Anyway, I wouldn‘t be surprised to see 75bp hike in July, to be continued with a few more 50bp hikes then. Coupled with the balance sheet that‘s about to shrink, that would finally start denting inflation – at the cost of real economy growth.

I say growth while I was looking for a Q1 GDP print to come in negative, and Q2 GDP would turn lackluster as well. Still, a full-fledged recession in the usual sense of the word (the consequences), won‘t hit until very late 2022 even though NBER might declare one (based also on unrelenting inflation data) earlier. All the typical signs are in – we had yield curve inversion, oil prices doubled in a relatively short amount of time, and inflation is entrenched above 5%. Whatever the Fed does – and it‘ll do a lot – inflation in essentials won‘t be dented all that much. There‘s no dodging the bullet in my view, and the markets would gradually go from living the soft landing fantasy to readjusting to the hard landing reality to come.

Thursday, June 23, 2022

How To Set Up A Business To Better Manage In The Free Market / Companies / SME

By: Steve_Barker

To better manage your business in the free market, it is vital to set up your business efficiently and effectively. There are a few key things you can do to ensure that your business is well-organized and able to compete in today's marketplace. With the proper planning and execution, you can position your business for long-term success in the free market. Keep reading to learn more about setting up your business for success.

Thursday, June 23, 2022

Why Are Precious Metals Considered A Good Investment? Find Out Here / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Steve_Barker

Are you thinking about investing in precious metals? Precious metals have been considered a good investment for centuries. There are many reasons they are seen as a valuable commodity, and in this article, we will discuss some of the most important ones. From their stability to their ability to hold value over time, precious metals are an excellent choice for investors who want to protect their money. If you're considering investing in this type of asset, read on to learn why it might be a smart move.

Wednesday, June 22, 2022

UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK house prices have soared into the stratosphere! Or have they? Not really, not in real terms anyway (RPI). However they are approaching the resistance of 2000's bull market high which could result in a consolidation of sorts. After all if I can see house prices in real terms hitting the buffers then so will be the expedience of most market participants where they are unable to finance property purchases at such extremes.

Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Sportsbook Betting Reviews: How to Choose a Sportsbook / Personal_Finance / Gambling

By: Sumeet_Manhas

If you want to find the perfect sportsbook for you, you’ve come to the right place! This article will include all the information and resourced you need to help you out—from Sportsbook Betting Reviews to step-by-step instructions on how to choose a sportsbook, what criteria to follow, and what sites to avoid.

We hope that by the end of this guide, you’ll be armed with the tools and information necessary to make the right decision on which sportsbook is the best place for you to place your bets. Choosing the right sportsbook is important, especially if you’re planning to take sports betting seriously. So sit back, and take a look at what we have put together below.

Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Looking to buy Cannabis Stocks? / Companies / Cannabis

By: Travis_Bard

Cannabis stocks are something you should definitely think of adding to your portfolio. This industry will be part of the future, as more countries legalize its recreational use, but mostly because there is a continuous growth in the use of CBD, which is a substance inside the cannabis plant, which has been found to hold many medicinal virtues. Here are a few interesting ways for you to invest, right now.

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

UK House Prices Momentum Forecast / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK house prices momentum soared to over 10% per annum after the bull market broke out of it's 0% to 5% momentum range that it had been in for most of the 2010's. Instead it looks likely the UK is entering into a 10% to 7% momentum range which suggest to continue to expect year on year gains for several more YEARs in the range of 10% to 6%! Yes we will get corrections i.e. 2 or 3 months of mildly falling prices that I am sure will have the perma bears crowing of top being in and a crash just around the corner, but this bull market is far from done and momentum suggests to expect strong house price inflation for at least the next 3 years.

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

The Fed is Incompetent - Beware the Dancing Market Puppet / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: The_Gold_Report

Expert Michael Ballanger reviews this week's market updates from Wednesday's FOMC meeting to his outlook on Getchell Gold Corp., which he maintains is a "pound-the-table Buy."

Firstly, if Wednesday’s FOMC meeting featuring Chairman Jerome (I have tools!) Powell did nothing else, it did accentuate just how incompetent they are. Powell stood in front of the cameras and told the world that the American economy was “strong” while one of his own branches, the Atlanta Fed, reported just a day earlier that growth had slowed to 0.00%, which is anything but “strong.”

“Stocks are super-unattractive when the Fed is loosening tightening and interest rates are falling rising. Don’t fight the Fed.”

— Legendary Fund Manager Marty Zweig

As the afternoon wore on, stocks moved higher thinking that the .75% rate hike to be followed by more .75% rate hikes throughout the year (targeting Fed Funds at 3.5%) should be seen as a bullish signal. Reductions in the Fed balance sheet assets and sharply rising rates are about as far from a bullish signal as one can get, so in the last hour, a 600-point Dow rally became a 300-point uptick setting the stage for today’s wake-up call, and 741-point slide.

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

US Economy Headed for a Hard Landing / Economics / Recession 2022

By: MoneyMetals

The U.S. economy appears headed for a hard landing.

After months of ignoring the steadily growing inflation problem, the Federal Reserve is now using monetary blunt force to try to rein in rising prices.

Fed policymakers have effectively decided that inflation is so out of hand, they are willing to induce an economic slowdown that will reduce aggregate demand for goods and services.

The recent carnage in the stock market suggests that the Fed’s suddenly aggressive rate hikes are going to crimp consumer borrowing and hurt retail sales.

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

How to Invest in EU - New Opportunities Uncovered / Personal_Finance / Investing 2022

By: Steve_Barker

Although the world seems to have gone haywire recently, one location remains a bastion of opportunity. The European Union (EU) is an enormous market that is considered one of the big three economic engines of the world (the others being the United States and China). With a plethora of opportunities for budding businesspersons, the EU offers a unique chance to conduct business in one of the world's most desirable regions. This post will explore some of the ways in which you could invest in this fantastic place in order to enhance your wealth and quality of life.

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

How To Protect Your Assets During Inflation / Personal_Finance / Investing 2022

By: Steve_Barker

Inflation is a natural occurrence in any economy. Over time, prices for goods and services will gradually increase as the cost of production rises. This can be a problem for people who have saved money because their funds will be worth less over time. In order to protect your assets from inflation, you need to invest them in a way that will maintain or grow their value. In this blog post, we will discuss some of the best ways to do that!

Monday, June 20, 2022

AI Tech Stocks Current State, Is AMAZON a Dying Tech Giant? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

The stocks bear market continues with most AI tech stocks putting in new bear market lows during the past week, with key exceptions being Facebook and AVGO. Whilst Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia were the weakest stocks of the week, though all stocks rallied strongly Friday led by AMD which ended the week up 10% followed by Micron at +6% which are definitely two stocks to aim to accumulate during any further market weakness.