Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, January 20, 2020
FOMO or FOPA or Au? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Raymond_Matison
FOMO, the well-known acronym standing for “Fear Of Missing Out” relates to the conviction that an investor needs to remain invested in financial markets for otherwise he may miss out gains which are generated by steadfast easy money policies of the FED. It also embodies the belief that if markets are to decline from deteriorating economic fundamentals, the FED will bail out investors by providing some kind of additional market stimulus. Embracing this simple principle has been profitable to investors in recent years. FOMO encapsulates the oft-proven axiom: don’t fight the FED.
FOPA, is newly-conjured acronym standing for “Fear Of Participating in the Avalanche” which relates to the possibility of a sudden or severe market decline. Interestingly, this acronym has the same pronunciation as the well-known French term “faux pas” which can be translated as “mistake”. Those more conservative investors suspicious of present bubble markets will avoid FOMO investing principles not wanting to make an investment strategy mistake, and therefore embrace FOPA - simply exiting the market to hold cash.
Au is the scientific symbol in Mendeleev’s Periodic Table of elements for gold. Gold has evolved over millennia through market competition throughout the world to serve as mankind’s preference for money. Every paper form of money ever created has ultimately failed, reducing to a zero value. Present use, still-existing paper currencies have proven to be poor stores of value, as relentless expansion of the currency supply reduces purchasing value. Gold is the ultimate proven holder of value, and as such is purchased at times when financial markets are chaotic or at risk of substantial decline. Investors concerned that a FOPA investment strategy, while protecting against a market decline, does not protect one against a financial system collapse will activate the Au asset preservation policy.
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Monday, January 20, 2020
Stock Market SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: readtheticker
The biggest known news date in the next 18 months is the US Election. The biggest unknown news date is when the US believes it is in a economic recession.
The Kitchin Cycle is still working.
We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does always play out.
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Sunday, January 19, 2020
Stock Market Final Thrust Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely near an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, January 19, 2020
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2020 - Trend Analysis - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
During 2019 the Dow finally breached resistance along a series of sub 28k highs of the past 2 years that propelled the Dow towards 29k.
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Sunday, January 19, 2020
Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Dorchester Minerals (DMLP) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Donald_W_Dony
Company profile: Company profile: This company comes from energy sector, oil &gas industry of Nasdaq. Dorchester Minerals, L.P. engages in the acquisition, ownership, and administration of producing and nonproducing natural gas and crude oil royalty, net profits, and leasehold interests in the United States. The company's royalty properties consist of producing and nonproducing mineral, royalty, overriding royalty, net profits, and leasehold interests located in 574 counties and parishes in 25 states.
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Friday, January 17, 2020
What Expiring Stock and Commodity Market Bubbles Look Like / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Gary_Tanashian
The Nasdaq bubble popped in 2000 after motoring upward on increasing volume in two separate phases. Volume rammed upward and RSI diverged. Like shootin’ fish in a barrel it was, except that at the time I was too inexperienced to see it. It was a steep slope and blow out.
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Thursday, January 16, 2020
Stock Market and the US Presidential Election Cycle / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Presidential cycle pattern has proved REMARKABLY ACCURATE for 2019, where the basic pattern for the US Presidential cycle is for a strong election year and post election year, followed by weak Mid-term then a strong pre-election year which is what we saw with 2019 as the chart from my September update illustrates. That implies to expect similar strength for 2020 as we had for 2019!
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Thursday, January 16, 2020
Shifting Undercurrents In The US Stock Market / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Even as we write this post, the US Stock Market continues to push higher as global traders and investors pour capital into the continued US rally. The strong US Dollar continued to attract capital from around the globe and with fresh earning about to hit from Q4 2019, investors are expecting another round of solid income and earnings growth.
Yet, underlying all of this is the undercurrent of shifting capital into safe-havens like precious metals, Cryptos, and under-valued foreign markets. This shift started to happen late in Q4 2019 and accelerated early in 2019.
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Thursday, January 16, 2020
Yes, China Is a Currency Manipulator – And the U.S. Banking System Is a Metals Manipulator / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: MoneyMetals
The U.S. Treasury Department announced Monday that China is no longer on a list of countries deemed to be “currency manipulators.” The timing was awfully convenient, coming just ahead of an expected Phase One trade deal between the two powers.
Nobody actually believes China has stopped manipulating the value of its yuan versus the U.S. dollar.
But the Trump administration is apparently willing to accept a certain degree of currency rigging in exchange for other concessions on trade.
It’s not as if the U.S. government has a stellar record when it comes to heeding principles of free and fair currency markets. It (through the Exchange Stabilization Fund and other vehicles) is constantly trying to manage the value of the dollar versus the currencies of trading partners, too.
Wednesday, January 15, 2020
Acceleration Mode for Stocks Bull Train / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Monday’s session played out as a grind-up during the regular trading hours. Price action confirmed it was finished with the high-level consolidation structure, breaking out above last week’s high of around 3287. This meant acceleration mode for the bull train per our projections of 3280/3300 and beyond. The methodical upside grind closed at the dead highs signifying resilient strength and the same old higher lows and higher highs pattern on the micro.
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Tuesday, January 14, 2020
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis 2020 / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Elliott wave Pattern suggest to expect a correction during the 1st quarter of 2020 before the Dow can once more target new highs during the new year.
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Tuesday, January 14, 2020
Stock Market Final Thrust / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely near an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, January 13, 2020
Trumpism Stock Market and the crisis in American social equality / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Christopher_Quigley
I recently read that the richest 100 people in the world own more than the poorest 4 billion. This article also pointed out that the purchasing power of the average American worker has significantly diminished over the last number of decades. Case in point; in order to simply keep pace with official inflation data, using 1980 as a benchmark year, the average entry level wage in the States should be in the region of 16 dollars an hour not the current $10.00 (approx). This is not surprising, technology and the diminished power of unionised labour are exposing one of the major weaknesses of liberal capitalism: the concentration of wealth. I believe that unless this issue is resolved, particularly in the United States of America, within the next decade, we possibly could see the steady demise of all liberal institutions and a slide towards hard socialism.
The one economist who identified this fatal flaw in orthodox liberal economic theory was Maynard Keynes. He recognised that society was a social organism and unless harmony was maintained the breakdown in the social contract between the haves and haves-nots would sunder everything. He recognised the fragility of it all that was his genius. He identified that the solution to the concentration of wealth was a strong and enlightened government that understood money. To counter the inevitable concentration of wealth that capitalism promoted Keynes understood the need for the active redistribution of capital. He tried his best all his life to educate the political elite that money should not be regarded as wealth but simply as a medium of exchange. He pointed out that there was no value in a factory churning out product, if folk did not have the money to purchase what was produced. He recognised that consumption was the essence of production, not production per se. He therefore advocated high taxation on those who were rich in order to transfer purchasing opportunity to those who were poor. These transfers he believed should take the form of government supported jobs, subsidized industries, socially supported infrastructural development and welfare for those who were sick, old or infirm. These policies were actually adopted by F. D. Roosevelt through his “New Deal” to successfully end the great depression.
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Saturday, January 11, 2020
The Crazy Stock Market Train to Bull Eternity / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Once again I have to disclaim that at the moment (and for quite some time now) I hold not one single short position, in anything. I am only long US and global stocks. But also managing cash and portfolio balance as usual while feeling as though I’m playing a game of Musical Chairs while the music still plays (nothing nearly as good as Keith’s style, which has always resonated with me beyond most others).
I have to disclaim the bull positioning because book talkers tend to talk their book. My book is only long insofar as I have equity positions because in a manic up phase I have little interest in eroding the situation with short hedging. Besides, gold stocks are doing that balancing job right now and that balancing act has been working well since June.
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Thursday, January 09, 2020
The Fed Protects Gamblers at the Expense of the Economy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Ellen_Brown
Although the repo market is little known to most people, it is a $1-trillion-a-day credit machine, in which not just banks but hedge funds and other “shadow banks” borrow to finance their trades. Under the Federal Reserve Act, the central bank’s lending window is open only to licensed depository banks; but the Fed is now pouring billions of dollars into the repo (repurchase agreements) market, in effect making risk-free loans to speculators at less than 2%.
This does not serve the real economy, in which products, services and jobs are created. However, the Fed is trapped into this speculative monetary expansion to avoid a cascade of defaults of the sort it was facing with the long-term capital management crisis in 1998 and the Lehman crisis in 2008. The repo market is a fragile house of cards waiting for a strong wind to blow it down, propped up by misguided monetary policies that have forced central banks to underwrite its highly risky ventures.
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Thursday, January 09, 2020
The Stock Market is the Opiate of the Masses / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Jared_Dillian
Oh sure, the days of watching Jim Cramer mash buttons on his console with his sleeves rolled up to his armpits are pretty much over.And nobody really day trades anymore, except for masochists. And, despite a 10,000-point rise in the Dow since the election, nobody seems all that happy.
But the stock market is still the opiate of the masses.
I know this because anytime I go on Twitter, the financial pundits are tweeting about stocks. They usually don’t tweet about bonds or commodities or FX. I follow one or two oddballs that tweet about volatility.
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Thursday, January 09, 2020
The Fed Is Creating a Monster Bubble / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: John_Mauldin
Ignoring problems rarely solves them. You need to deal with them—not just the effects, but the underlying causes, or else they usually get worse.
In the developed world and especially the US, and even in China, our economic challenges are rapidly approaching that point. Things that would have been easily fixed a decade ago, or even five years ago, will soon be unsolvable by conventional means.
Central bankers are the ones to blame. In a sense, they are far more powerful and dangerous than the elected ones.
Hint: It’s nowhere good. And when you combine it with the fiscal shenanigans, it’s far worse.
Wednesday, January 08, 2020
Stock Market Forecast 2020 Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Long-term Trend Analysis
The Dow finally breached resistance along a series of sub 28k highs of the past 2 years that propelled the Dow towards 29k.
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Wednesday, January 08, 2020
NASDAQ Set to Fall 1000pts Early 2020, and What it Means for Gold Price / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One of our most interesting predictive modeling system is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system. It is capable of learning from past price data, building price DNA chains and attempting to predict future price activity with a fairly high degree of accuracy. The one thing we’ve learned about the ADL system is that when price mirrors the ADL predictive modeling over a period of time, then there is often a high probability that price will continue to mirror the ADL price predictions.
One of our more infamous ADL predictions was our October 2018 Gold ADL prediction chart (below). This chart launched a number of very interesting discussions with industry professionals about predictive modeling and our capabilities regarding Adaptive Learning. Eric Sprott, of Sprott Money, highlighted some of our analyses related to the ADL predictive modeling system in June and July 2019. Our ADL predictive modeling system suggested a bottom would form in Gold near April/May 2019 and then Gold would rally up toward $1600 by September 2019, then rotate a bit lower near $1550 levels.
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Wednesday, January 08, 2020
Stock Market Trend Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely near an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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