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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

A look at Stock Market Psychology / Stock-Markets / Trader Psychology

By: Clif_Droke

The past five days were bullish, overall, for the stock market. That isn't surprising given the level of bearish sentiment we saw in last week's AAII investor sentiment survey. This week's AAII poll, released Thursday, showed a slight increase in bullish sentiment (41%) over bearish sentiment (38%). That's not enough of a disparity between the bulls and the bears to cause any overt worries in the immediate term, but it's enough to slightly increase our caution.

The still rising dominant internal momentum indicator for the NYSE, the 200-day HILMO index, should act as a strong underlying support for anything unusual that gets thrown at this market in the coming weeks. The interim trend remains bullish.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 16, 2007

Elliott Wave Theory and Financial Market Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Elliott wave theory in the hands of experienced professionals, has time and again shown itself as an important indicator of future trend, a road map that is constantly adjusted in the light of unfolding price action.

If you have been following the various articles on Elliott Wave theory at the Market Oracle website, you will have experienced the usefulness of elliott wave theory in projecting targets both in terms of price and time with also clear examples of how unfolding price action adjusts the wave count expectations.

In a recent lengthy article (16th April), one of our contributors Joseph Russo illustrated this in his unfolding analysis of Gold over several months, and how at each stage Elliott Wave theory gave important clues in terms of probable price action, as well as how to interpret price action that deviated from the probable road map.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Stocks & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - Future's So Bright ! / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory

By: Dominick

Since I didn't write an update last week, I will go back to the April 1 st update to review where we had left off. In that update I had stated:

“This week, we might have the same situation, but on a smaller degree. Has the market topped out in a second wave retracement on March 23rd, or are we about to set a huge bear trap to finally get that run to new highs that sets up the classic capitulation?

As we've basically nailed these last two swings, we think we have the correct possible patterns and are waiting for a bit more price action to confirm. It might only take another day or two.  I believe we will have a decent move within the next 20 points that we are ready to trade.”

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 14, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 14th April 2007 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is-
• The S&P mid cap index (MID) hit an all time high Friday.
• Next week is seasonally one of the strongest weeks of the year.

Short Term
Last Wednesday the MID ended its 2nd consecutive string of 8 consecutive up days for the year. You have to go back to April - June 2004 to find a similar performance. Following the late June 2004 string of 8 consecutive up days the index made an intermediate term high about a month later.

What has been defining this market is a lack of sellers.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Is it Time to Double Up on Brazil in your BRIC Portfolio? / Stock-Markets / Brazil

By: Michael_K_Dawson

BRIC is becoming a fairly common acronym amongst investors.  The term was coined in a research paper by Goldman Sachs in 2003 to describe an economic block composed of Brazil, Russia, India and China.  The combination has the potential to be larger than the G6 in US dollar terms by 2050. Since the paper's release, investors have been scrambling for ways to leverage this theme.  Last fall, Claymore introduced the first BRIC ETF (EBB). 

Before the Claymore ETF, the easiest way to invest into the theme was to use country specific ETFs.  In the past, I have used EWZ (Brazil), TRF (Russia), IFN (India) and FXI (China) to capture the trend. An advantage of the country ETF approach is the ability to specify your own weighting for each country versus being locked in to Claymore's weighting. 

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Special China Stock Market Update - Another Shanghai Index Correction Due? / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Marty_Chenard

Most of you know that I spend at least 15 hours a week on new research or exploring new market patterns. I found something very unusual going on in the Shanghai Index, unusual enough that I thought it was important to share it with you ...

Will the Shanghai 180 Index correct within 4 days and take our markets down with it?

This morning, we made a very interesting observation about the Shanghai 180 Index. The Shanghai is an index that we are watching pretty closely due to its correlation with our Feb. 27th. market drop.

I will show you two Shanghai 180 charts this morning with a very interesting pattern.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

The Yen Carry Trade Means New Rules for Global Investing in 2007 / Stock-Markets / Yen Carry Trade

By: Gary_Dorsch

Jesse Livermore, widely regarded as one of the greatest stock market operators of all-time, considered himself a humble student of the market until his last day in 1940. “I study the market, because it's my business to trade. In the forty years which I have devoted to making speculation a successful business venture, I am still discovering new rules to apply to that business,” he once remarked.

“Experience has taught me the way a market behaves is an excellent guide for an operator to follow. Observation gives you the best tips of all, and the behavior of a certain market is all you need at times. You observe, and then experience shows you how to profit by variations from the usual, that is to say, from the probable.” Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, April 09, 2007

Financial Markets Wrap - US Economy, Bonds, Currencies and Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

March ISM's factory gauge came in at 50.9 down from 52.3 the previous month. It remains just barely above the important 50 level. Most of the internal figures were weak as well.

The new orders index fell to 51.6 from 54.9. The Production Index fell to 53 from 54.1 and the Employment Index fell to 48.7 from 51.1. Even the Prices Paid Index fell to 65.5 from 69.

The ISM's non-manufacturing index fell to 52.4 in March, the lowest level in almost four years. Not the best of reports.

The Labor Department reported the jobless rate fell to 4.4%. Employment increased 180,000 that followed an 113,000 rise in February.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 09, 2007

Nolte Notes - Wall Street Hops on Jobs Data and PMI / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Save for the still frigid upper tier of states, spring has sprung! (I'll save the frozen robin jokes) A bit of celebration was also in the economic numbers released on Friday, as the employment situation is looking much better – good for stocks, bad for bonds. While the guess may have been too low, the actual number added to payrolls was still not huge.

With all the monthly revisions, the average twelve-month gain has been falling for a year, after peaking at a rate well below those of the past 45 years. Many will argue that 125k in new jobs is the same as 250 is years past miss the point that the decline in jobs in 2002 was in line or larger than past job losses. Wage growth continues at roughly a 4% clip, a concern, but it merely matches prior peaks since the early 80's.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 09, 2007

Stock Market Severe Correction Commentary - Don't Listen to the Talking Heads / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Clif_Droke

Watch the market!

I ran across an interesting article in the Financial Times on Wednesday.  It caught my eye because of the headline:  “Fund sells ahead of severe ‘correction'”.  Here's what the article had to say:

 “A leading UK fund manager has sold off around half the equities in the portfolios he oversees in anticipation of an imminent and severe market correction.  Ken Murray, the founder and chief executive of Blue Planet Investment Management, has revealed he has offloaded equities and cut the gearing on the firm's portfolios to zero in the belief a U.S. economic recession is set to wipe more than 20 percent from the value of global stock markets.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 07, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 7th April 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is: After a little rest this week the market is likely to move up sharply.

Short Term
The S&P mid cap index (MID) has been the champ at putting together unbroken strings of consecutive up days.

The first chart shows the MID in magenta with an indicator showing the percentage of the previous 6 trading days that were up. The indicator touches the top of the chart when there have been 6 or more consecutive up days and it touches the bottom of the chart when there have been 6 or more consecutive down days. It is a little difficult to see, but, as of Thursday's close, the indicator is at the top of the chart.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 06, 2007

The Private Equity Bubble - When smart money does dumb things … / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets

By: Money_and_Markets

Mike Larson writes : During the housing bubble, a lot of lenders lost their minds. It was as if some mass psychosis took over even the experienced executives, convincing them to do exceedingly dumb things.

They didn't bother checking borrowers' incomes or assets …

They didn't care if the loan covered the entire value of the house …

And they weren't the least bit concerned that all kinds of exotic mortgages were being doled out to people with horrible credit histories.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 04, 2007

The Right Market at The Right Time - Canadian Income Trusts a Screaming Buy / Stock-Markets / Canadian Stock Market

By: Roger_Conrad

Remember when investors could retire and live well on a modest nest egg? Remember when taxes were only 15% a year, and when you didn't have to worry about losing your shirt before the closing bell?

That way of life has gradually been taken from you. But this letter is going to bring it all back, courtesy of the Canadian government. They've invented a whole new kind of investment, one that's pulling hundreds of billions of US dollars across the border into Canada today.

In a nutshell, Canadian Income Trusts are a brilliant structure that allows a business to avoid taxes--all taxes. That's one pretty obvious reason they're so popular.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Bubbles, Derivatives and Global Financial Shocks - Itchy Trigger Fingers / Stock-Markets / US Economy

By: Dr_William_R_Swagell

In his new book “FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON” ( www.financialarmageddon.com ) Michael Panzner paints a chilling picture of how he sees the current global asset and credit bubbles climaxing. Need I say it… not at all well!

Panzner, is “a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets…(who) has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank. and JPMorgan Chase”.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Four Rules for Investing in Asian Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Investing

By: Money_and_Markets

Less than a month ago, everyone was talking about the Chinese stock market's 9.2% single-day loss, and the global sell-off it triggered. At the time, I urged you to hold steady and treat the drop as a buying opportunity. I said,

"I believe this is an unwarranted knee-jerk reaction. But it's also a good thing for longer-term investors. There are dozens of Asian blue chip stocks that have now come back down to levels that look pretty darn appealing to me."

That proved to be good advice. Reason: The Shanghai Composite Index hit a new, all-time high last week. Yup, in just four weeks, the Chinese stock market recovered everything it had previously lost … and then some!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, April 02, 2007

Brazil the New Back Door to Investing in China / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets

By: Money_and_Markets

Martin Weiss writes : This weekend, Elisabeth and I finally got away to our favorite spot — the smallest, most beautiful, semi-private beach in the southern State of São Paulo.

I'm glad. It gives me a chance to contemplate the escalating Persian Gulf crisis from afar, something our editors and I talked about intensely before I left home late last week.

Plus, it gives me a chance to survey the opportunities here.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 01, 2007

Stocks & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - Show me the money! / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory

By: Dominick

Surprise, surprise, another volatile week. The bears got their big selloff, but it was in corn, not in the S&P's! Corn opened down lock limit as the S&P's created great trading opportunities for the “unbiased” trader.

As we ended 2006, I promised 2007 would be the year of volatility, and hasn't that been the truth?! It feels like only yesterday we were grinding up each day point by point. Friday's closing bell wrapped up March, as well as the first quarter, but investors who were pegged to the S&P are in for a surprise when they receive their quarterly statements. The S&P closed 2 points from its 2006 close.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 31, 2007

Important Global Financial Markets Update - Gold Miners and Japan / Stock-Markets / Investing

By: Money_and_Markets

Martin Weiss writes : We've just arrived at our beach house in Brazil, where our nephew's two boys also love to spend their vacations.

It's early Saturday morning, and the family is still sleeping. Soon they'll be up and about, ready for a full day of activities.

I'm looking forward to the opportunity to spend some quality time with my family. But I also wanted to send you a quick update while I had the chance.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 31, 2007

Stock Market volitility for April but should end the year Strongly Higher / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Adam_Oliensis

Dear Speculators,

We've been studying the 4-year cycle in the stock market for quite some time here. And over the past couple of weeks we've been entertaining two different hypotheses. Our working assumption had been that the 4-yr cycle low came before it was scheduled to in '06, forming in July and launching the new '06 - '10 cycle with the July-February rally from the 1220s up to the 1460 area.

This first chart plots the market's percentage gain off the July low (black line) against the median 4-year cycle performance since 1962 (blue line) as well as against the average performance (red line). The grey lines measure 1 standard deviation from the median. And the horizontal axis measures the number of trading days from the launch of the new cycle; this particular chart plots only the first 2 years of the cycle.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 31, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 31st March 2007 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is: Next week as well as the entire month of April have had a very positive seasonal bias.

Short Term : Last week new lows on the NASDAQ peaked at 56 on Thursday well below the 159 seen on March 5. The high for the NYSE was 32 on Wednesday also well below the 106 reported on March 5.

The chart below covers the past year showing the OTC in orange and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new lows (OTC NL) in black. OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so increasing new lows move the indicator downward (up is good).

The upward movement of OTC NL was arrested on Thursday casting some suspicion on rally off the March lows.

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