Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, January 08, 2019
Breadth is Very Strong While Stocks are Surging. What’s Next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
As the S&P 500 makes a sharp upwards reversal towards its 38.2% fibonacci retracement, the U.S. stock market’s breadth is surging and risk-off assets (USD) are falling.
This combination of extremely strong breadth and a decline in risk-off assets often leads to short term weakness before a bigger medium term rally, but sometimes was a part of V-shaped recoveries. Moral of the story: focus on the medium term instead of the short term. Although V-shaped recoveries are unlikely, there are not impossible.
Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook.
Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable medium term direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.
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Monday, January 07, 2019
Market Predictions for 2019 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Michael_Pento
Bond Yields Continue to Fall in First Half of YearThe epoch bond bubble continues to build and become a dagger over the worldwide economy and markets. Wall Street Shills are fond of claiming that global bond yields remain at historically low levels due to central bank manipulations, but this argument is no longer tenable. It was once true, but QE on a net global basis has now gone negative. And the data shows the amount of U.S. publicly traded debt relative to GDP is much greater today than it was prior to the start of the Great Recession—even after adjusted for the size of the Fed’s balance sheet--in other words, taking into account all the debt the Fed has purchased and is still rolling over.
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Monday, January 07, 2019
Stocks Rallied Again, Still Just an Upward Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks rallied on Friday following better-than-expected monthly jobs data release. Will the uptrend continue? Or is this just a quick upward correction before another leg lower?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 3.3-4.3% on Friday, as investors reacted to better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls number release. The S&P 500 index extended its recent rebound off the December the 26th medium-term low of 2,346.58. It traded 20.2% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 on that day. Then the market rallied and retraced some of the downtrend. It got back above 2,500 mark on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.3% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 4.3%.
The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is now at 2,530-2,550, marked by some previous fluctuations. The resistance level is also at 2,570-2,600. On the other hand, the level of support is at 2,500, and the next support level remains at 2,450-2,475, marked by some recent local lows.
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Sunday, January 06, 2019
Stock Market Counter-trend Still on Track / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX: Long-term trend – Correcting within the very long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Sunday, January 06, 2019
Market Volatility Skyrocketing, Trump & Pelosi Spar / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are off to a strong start in 2019. Gold and silver both closed Thursday at multi-month highs as the stock market reversed sharply to the downside.
Investors were disappointed by manufacturing data showing a slowdown in industrial output. They dumped economically sensitive stocks and bid the U.S. dollar lower on foreign currency exchanges. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to pause its rate hiking campaign and possibly even begin cutting rates later this year.
The weaker dollar helped boost crude oil and precious metals prices. The energy and mining sectors are among the only gainers in the stock market. The HUI gold miners index closed at a 5-month high on Thursday.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
The Last Time the Yield Curve Inverted, Stocks Soared 30%! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: John_Mauldin
Everybody is suddenly talking about the inverted yield curve.They’re right to do so, too, but alarm bells may be premature. Inversion is a historically reliable but early recession indicator. Even a fully inverted yield curve—which is not yet—isn’t saying recession is imminent.
What we see now is really more of a flattened yield curve. It has a smaller but still positive spread between short-term and long-term interest rates.
That’s not normal, but it’s also not a recession guarantee. However, when we combine this with other threats, it adds to the concerns.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
While the U.S. stock market has been trending downwards from December 2018 – present, safe havens (e.g. gold and Yen) have been going up.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Stephen_McBride
“Sell everything, I can’t take anymore!”
My stockbroker friend got a phone call from a hysterical client on Christmas Eve.
She was panicking over all the money she had lost in the market… and was demanding to sell her whole portfolio of stocks.
December, as you surely know, was horrendous for U.S. markets.
The S&P fell 10% for its worst December since 1931 during the Great Depression.
In fact, it was the S&P’s worst month overall since February 2009.
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Thursday, January 03, 2019
Stock Market Invstors Be Careful Going Into 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
With the start of a new year, some of these market studies are going to look at the stock market in 2018 and see what that implies for 2019.
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Thursday, January 03, 2019
Warning: The Stock Market Bounce Was a Head Fake / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
In December, Jerome Powell confirmed that he is going to implement a financial reset.
That reset will crash stocks.
We know this because the Fed didn’t even HINT at tapering its Quantitative Tightening program at this latest Fed FOMC despite stocks staging the worst December since the Great Depression.
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Thursday, January 03, 2019
Gold and Dow Jones Big Profits from Big Channels / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: readtheticker
Big profits come from big swings within the long term channels. Here are the big channels for gold (GLD) and Dow Jones (INDU). Readtheticker has price data for 100+ years for the important securities. The red arrows are points of interest. Gold holds support, demand present.
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Wednesday, January 02, 2019
January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The primary focus of my in-depth analysis for January will continue to be on the UK housing market and I will seek to forecast the prospects for the US housing market for at least 2019, seeking to replicate the accuracy of my last US housing market 3 year trend forecast https://youtu.be/82ncGGgbhAk.
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Wednesday, January 02, 2019
Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we near the end of 2018 and have recently witnessed an incredible price rotation in the US stock market, it is time for traders to take stock of the incredible opportunities that are set up for early 2019 and beyond. Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, has put together some truly incredible longer-term Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system charts that will help you understand and identify incredible opportunities that should play out in early 2019. We know you will not find this type of analysis anywhere else on the planet and we know just how valuable these charts are too skilled traders. So, get ready for some incredible moves – as impossible as they may seem.
Let’s get started with Crude Oil. This Monthly chart of Crude showing our ADL price modeling system is clearly indicating the first few months of 2019 will include increased price volatility. One thing to pay attention to as we review these charts are the BLUE TRIANGLES, which is where we asked the ADL predictive modeling system for a detailed analysis, and the CYAN, YELLOW, and WHITE DASHED LINES, which is where the ADL system is showing us the highest probability price outcome into the future. On this chart, we can see that the predicted price levels of the past have been relatively close to where the price has closed on each monthly price bar. Going into the future, we can see 3~4 months of price volatility between $50 and $65 (roughly) with rotating higher/lower price objectives. We interpret this as greatly increased price volatility with the potential of supply events disrupting global expectations in oil. These could be intermediate-term price rotations that keep the price within our $50~65 price range, or they could be large range, very dramatic price rotations as a result of massive global supply events.
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Wednesday, January 02, 2019
What Will the Stock Market do in 2019? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
What will the U.S. stock market do in 2019? It depends on who you ask.
- Wall Street analysts are generally bullish. The average analysts’ year-end 2019 prediction is 3000 for the S&P. Analysts have a bullish bias.
- The media is bearish (again), as they are every year. The media (financial media, social media, bloggers) have a bearish bias because bad news sells. It’s in their interest to sensationalize everything and scare the crap out of you. Scary headlines = more attention & ad revenue.
But as always, here at Bull Markets we try to follow the data and remain as objective as possible. We don’t always get it right, but following the data = a much better success % vs. random guessing.
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Tuesday, January 01, 2019
Warning: A Lehman Event is About to Hit Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Last week’s rally was the result of multiple interventions.
“Someone” took advantage of the extremely light holiday volume to ramp markets higher via indiscriminant buying. The media is trying to portray this action as the result of “investors” or “value seekers” but neither of those groups was involved.
This was a clear and obvious buying program made by “someone” who didn’t want stocks to officially enter a bear market by falling 20%. One of the key “tells” that this was manipulation is that underperformers like banks and homebuilders didn’t lead the rally.
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Tuesday, January 01, 2019
Fake Markets and Return of the “Plunge Protection Team” / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
It’s amazing what passes as a market these days.
Stocks rallied during the Christmas week, and the mainstream financial press would like you to believe bargain hunters swooped in after the weeks of heavy selling to grab some deals. The truth is there are very few actual people still evaluating the merits of publicly traded companies.
The markets are driven by programmed trading and central planning. The artificial nature of markets was on full display last week.
Tuesday, January 01, 2019
Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Donald Trump and Britain's countdown to BrExit Independence (29th of March 2019) proved to be the weapons of mass financial distraction of 2018 that dominated politics and the financial markets. Both born out of 2016 elections seeking to upset the status quo
of an elite that had taken their electorates for granted for decades that culminated in the failure of politicians to hold the banking crime syndicate to account for the financial crisis which ushered in a decade of economic depression for most of the electorate.
In the UK a Remainer Prime Minister has been determined to subvert the will of the British people with most Westminister politicians encouraging calls for a further chaos inducing Second Referendum that the establishment are certain to engineer to deliver a REMAIN outcome as illustrated by the economic collapse propaganda surging out of the Bank of England downwards.
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Tuesday, January 01, 2019
Stock Market Counter-trend Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, December 31, 2018
The Stock Market Plunge Protection Team, The Fed & The Investor Costs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Dan_Amerman
The "Plunge Protection Team" is the colloquial name for the Working Group on Financial Markets (WGFM). The Working Group was established by the executive order of President Reagan in 1988, in the aftermath of the stock market plunge of October, 1987.
The group reports to the President, and the official members of the group include the Secretary of the Treasury, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, the chairman of the SEC, and the chairman of the CFTC. In other words, the group members are the four most powerful financial officials in the United States. In practice, the committee can be composed of senior aides and officials that have been designated by those top officials.
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Monday, December 31, 2018
The Stock Market Made a Sharp Reversal Last Week. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market is making an oversold bounce right now, and is stuck at its fibonacci retracement (23.6%). The standard target for a bounce is 38.2% – 50%
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