Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, June 24, 2017

US Stock Market Correction Could be Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started the week at SPX 2433. After a gap up opening on Monday, and a new all-time high to SPX 2454, the market pulled back to 2431 by Wednesday. After a rally to SPX 2442 on Thursday the market pulled back to 2431 again on Friday. Then ended the week at SPX 2438. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.95%. Economic reports for the week were slightly positive. On the downtick: weekly jobless claims and the WLEI. On the uptick: existing/new home sales and leading indicators. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the Q1 GDP update and the Chicago PMI.

Saturday, June 24, 2017

The Swiss National Bank Owns $80 Billion in US Stocks—Here’s the Catch / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: John_Mauldin

Switzerland is a small country of just 8 million people, but they make an outsized impact on economics and finance and money.

Because Switzerland is considered a safe haven and a well-run country, many people would like to hold large amounts of their assets in the Swiss franc. This makes the Swiss franc intolerably strong for Swiss businesses and citizens.

So the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has to print a great deal of money and use nonconventional means to hold down the value of their currency. Their overnight repo rate is -0.75%.

Friday, June 23, 2017

Risk measurement? Volatility doesn’t cut it / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Submissions

Henrique Schneider writes: Almost every investor and almost every portfolio use volatility as an indication of risk. There’s nothing awfully wrong with that. But some investors and some portfolios reduce risk to volatility. And this is a serious error, since gauging on volatility is myopic, misinformed and revenue-averse. Why?

Friday, June 23, 2017

Hedgers Net Short the Euro, US Market Rotates; 2 Horsemen Set to Ride? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Gary_Tanashian

In line with our bullish forward view on USD, behold the very bearish state of the Commercial Hedger positions in the Euro (courtesy of Sentimentrader). Recent historical data speaks for itself. It appears a decline in the Euro is imminent (which, in market terms means ‘relax, it could be a while yet’ ).

Friday, June 23, 2017

Warning: Oil Crash Is Just Days Away From Triggering a Debt Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Graham_Summers

The Oil collapse is about to trigger a crisis in junk bonds.

Oil has been going straight down for weeks now. As we write this, black gold is below $43 a barrel, down 16% from its levels a month ago.

Friday, June 23, 2017

Did Central Banks Just Pull the Plug On Another Credit Bubble? / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: Graham_Summers

Last week the NY Fed downgraded its economic forecast for 2Q17 to just 1.9%. Even worse, it is now forecasting 2017 total growth to be a measly 1.5%.

Yes, 1.5%.

There is a clear trend to this chart… and it’s NOT up.

Friday, June 23, 2017

SPX and NDX meet Fib and Cycle Requirements / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

You may be interested to know that the current (or should I say past) Cycle took exactly 17.2 hours of elapsed time from top to top. It also made a mere 47% Fibonacci retracement.

The next move is a break of the Broadening Wedge trendline that, when triggered, forecasts a decline beneath the Brexit low at 1991.00.

Thursday, June 22, 2017

FAANG Is Now a Textbook Example of an Overheated, Unsustainable Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: John_Mauldin

Technology stocks suffered from a little anxiety attack in the markets last week.

It didn’t last long and really wasn’t all that serious. (Yet.) It was nothing worse than what everyone called “normal volatility” 10 years ago.

But the lack of concern it generated this time is not bullish. More than a few investors seem to think that “nowhere but up” is somehow normal.

Thursday, June 22, 2017

More Stock Market Fluctuations Along New Record Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Stock Market SPX Making New Lows / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The bounce back made a 32.7% retracement which is a little suspect. However, we are now seeing an impulsive move to deeper lows. This may be a Wave (b) of the correction and could see a bounce back, but the further it goes, the less the probability of being a correction. It has crossed Short-term support at 2433.69, but may hesitate or bounce. A continued decline verifies the impulse.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Stock Market Is Headed for a “Minsky Moment”—It Can Happen Quickly, Too / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: John_Mauldin

Economics has a lot of overused themes and phrases. One of them is highly relevant today yet forgotten by many.

It’s “Minsky moment,” the point at which excess debt sparks a financial crisis.

The late Hyman Minsky said that such moments arise naturally when a long period of stability and complacency eventually leads to the buildup of excess debt and overleveraging.

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Stock Market Quick Airpocket Ahead, Gold Miners Look Good / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The stock market is due for a sudden air pocket, likely from Tuesday to Thursday this week. My downside target is 2398 . We are due for the 10 week low from April 13, 2017.  The SPX is making an irregular abc type (y) wave top that is not being confirmed by stochastics or the MACD daily. Last time we saw this was May 16-17, 2017 on the 5 and 7 week low. The pattern is bullish once resolved.  We should see a final top on or near July 5-7.

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Most Popular Auto Trading Tools for trading with Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Submissions

Monday, June 19, 2017

Today’s Stock Market Is Not Yet At Dot-Com Bubble Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: John_Mauldin

PATRICK WATSON : Worried about a stock market crash?

Valuations are high, yes, but not at the levels seen in the late 1990s dot-com craze.

A Leuthold Group study used the same measures to compare today’s valuations against those in the 1990s. 

Monday, June 19, 2017

Positive Stock Market Expectations, But Will Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Stock Market Higher Highs Still Likely / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  Uptrend continues with a serious loss of upside momentum in weekly indicators.

SPX Intermediate trend:  Correction over.  May be heading for about 2500, or fall slightly short of it.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, June 18, 2017

NDX/NAZ Continue downward pressure on the US Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Tony_Caldaro

The week started at SPX 2432. After a decline to SPX 2420 on Monday the market rallied to 2444 by Wednesday. The market dropped to SPX 2419 on Thursday, then rallied to 2433 to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.3%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.0%. Economic reports continue to be weak. On the downtick: retail sales, the CPI, business inventories, import prices, the Philly FED, capacity utilization, the NAHB, housing starts, building permits, consumer sentiment, the Q2 GDP estimate, the WLEI, and the budget deficit widened. On the uptick: the NY FED and jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by leading indicators and more housing.

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Crazy Charging Stocks Bull Market Random Thoughts / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Sol_Palha

In the sphere of thought, absurdity and perversity remain the masters of the world, and their dominion is suspended only for brief periods. Arthur Schopenhauer

The proverbial question for many years has always been; when will this stock market bull end? By every measure of logic and or common sense, this bull market should have crashed years ago. However, it hasn't, and much to the angst of many professionals continued its march upwards against all the odds. We would like to stop here and state that this market is now very close to trading in the extremely overbought ranges.  A market can trade in the overbought ranges for an extended period.  In this instance, we analysed monthly charts, where each bar represents a month’s worth of data. Historically, a market has experienced a correction within 5-10 months from the occurrence of this event. As of yet, the markets are not trading in the extremely overbought ranges on the monthly charts, but they are very close to moving into this zone.

Friday, June 16, 2017

The Market Effects of Another Interest Rate Hike / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Donald_W_Dony

Yesterday's much anticipated Fed interest rate increase has done little to change the mood on Wall Street.

The FOMC raised the Fed Funds rate by another 25 bps on Wednesday as Fed chair Janet Yellen saw the US economy advancing at a "measured" rate.

This is the 2nd time the Fed has increased rates this year and the 3rd time in as many quarters.

Friday, June 16, 2017

Here’s the Investing Reason Active Funds Can’t Beat Passive Funds—and It Worries Me a Lot / Stock-Markets / Investing 2017

By: John_Mauldin

I’ve touched on the issue of passive investing quite a few times. But this time, I want to show a few charts that illustrate the extent of the problems that are building up in the passive index world.

It is not just ETFs, but also index mutual funds and the enormous amount of pension and insurance funds, along with many trust funds, that are passively invested directly in stocks. They simply duplicate indexes.