Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, April 18, 2022
The Witchy Trio: Commodities Supercycle, Inflation, and… Recession? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Submissions
If the current market phenomena were to star in a Shakespeare drama, they would be ideal candidates for the Three Witches. Can you guess who would play who?
Have you ever heard of Shakespeare’s mythological characters, the Three Witches? They are depicted as prophets who represent evil, darkness, chaos, and conflict.
If you look at the market today, you will find ideal candidates for these dark roles. However, while rising commodity prices and inflation have a casting win in their pocket, there is no certain actor to play the third witch. Would the recession stand a chance?
No Easter eggs today – instead, here is a story that may provide food for thought.
Sunday, April 17, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Into Mid May 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What if you could know the future, had a chart of the stock market that showed a high probability trend forecast into the middle of May 2022. We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast right into the middle of May 2022.
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Saturday, April 16, 2022
Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid May 2022, AI Stocks Portfolio Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What if you could know the future, had a chart of the stock market that showed a high probability trend forecast into the middle of May 2022. We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast right into the middle of May 2022 -
Whilst my last market brief signaled to expect a strong April to be punctuated by an imminent correction into early April before the final forecast push higher into a May high that the following chart of the S&P better visualises of what I have in mind in terms of how the trend could play out.
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Thursday, April 14, 2022
Stocks Bear Market About to Resume? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Tthe stock market rally that had the the bulls salivating is probably coming to and end, and thus the direction of travel over the coming days should be lower as the Dow continues to target $31k. In terms of the bear market we will probably eventually see the Dow gravitate to below $30k, how low and in what time frame requires in-depth analysis which I will focus on next after housing. In the meantime, This is the type of trend I warned to expect, VERY VOLATILE as investors gyrate between FEAR and GREED. A sell off now could set the scene for a strong April i.e. off a higher end March / early April low rather than a break to new bear market lows.
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Thursday, April 14, 2022
What a Brutal Bear Market Brings Besides Crashing Stock Prices / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
"When social mood is negative, rallies, marches and protests become common events"
Sure, it's highly important to get out of value-losing risk assets before the onset of a big bear market.
No analytical method offers a guarantee; however, our experience shows that if you follow the message of the Elliott wave model, you'll have a good chance of protecting your wealth during the next financial downturn.
Having said that, there's more to a severe bear market than collapsing investment prices. Keep in mind that the shift from a positive to a negative social mood -- which brings on a financial bear market -- also brings on an array of societal problems.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2022
Stocks – Uncertainty Ahead of Quarterly Earnings Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks fluctuated following their recent decline on Tuesday and the S&P 500 index closed slightly below the 4,400 level. Is this still just a downward correction?The S&P 500 index lost 0.34% on Tuesday following its Monday’s decline of 1.7%. There is still a lot of uncertainty concerning the Ukraine conflict and Fed’s monetary policy tightening plans. On Monday it led to a more pronounced profit-taking action. However, the coming quarterly earnings releases season may be a positive factor in the near term. This morning the broad stock market is expected virtually flat following the Producer Price Index release.
The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,475-4,500, marked by the recent support level and Monday’s daily gap down. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,350-4,400. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its March rally, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
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Wednesday, April 13, 2022
Utilities Rising & Transporters Sinking – Sector Rotation Is Providing Clues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Historically, investors gravitate toward more defensive and commodity-focused sectors, such as precious metals, energy, commodities, and utilities, in late-cycle bull markets.
Recently, the stock market is beginning to show us signs that the bull market may be coming to an end. Commodities such as energy, grains, and precious metals have all experienced nice rallies. Price action also confirms money flow coming out of transports and into utilities.
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Sunday, April 10, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We are in for a volatile trend with a downwards bias for much of 2022, as I wrote to expect on the 5th of Dec 2021 accompanied by revised trend forecast graph.
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Sunday, April 10, 2022
New Biden Tax & Spend Plan Throws Gasoline on Inflation Bonfire / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
As the Federal Reserve ramps up its rhetoric on rate hikes, precious metals markets continue to consolidate.
Gold and silver showed some signs of basing out and readying to moving higher with a rally on Thursday. As of this Friday recording, gold prices come in at $1,951 an ounce – up 0.9% for the week. Silver, meanwhile, is putting in a slight weekly gain of 0.3% to trade at $24.97 per ounce.
Turning to the platinum group metals, they have been slumping on late. Platinum is off 1.6% this week to trade at $1,000. And palladium, which is putting in a big advance here today of +$200 so far, is up a robust 7.4% this week to command $2,499 per ounce.
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Saturday, April 09, 2022
Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What if you could know the future, had a chart that showed you how the stock market could trend into the middle of May 2022, how much value would you put on it? More than $4 bucks?
We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast based on Deem neurons right into the middle of May 2022 that so far has spooky Mulder style tracked the S&P quite accurately.
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Wednesday, April 06, 2022
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: EWI
Hi,
Millions of people have joined the ranks of online traders since the start of the pandemic, and you may be one of them. Or maybe you've been trading for years already...
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Tuesday, April 05, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: What If They Held A Recession And No One Showed Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
I have now been writing for well over a decade on Seeking Alpha. And, during that time, I have tried to enlighten readers as to how I see the market machinations take shape, especially as compared to the common views held by most market participants. So, there's large body of work I have compiled and written on this topic.
This week, I'm taking the opportunity to compile it all into a three-article series. So, please do bear with me as I'm going to be presenting you with a lot of information, most of which has been culled from my many articles and my recent keynote address at the Las Vegas MoneyShow convention. After I complete that presentation, I will provide you with my thoughts on an “impending recession.”
I want to begin by explaining that much of what you have been taught regarding the market is likely false. I know that's quite a bold statement to make, but I can back it up with examples, market research, and market history.
You see, just as many of you have done, I began my investing career on the fundamentals side of the market. For those who may not know my background, allow me to explain the qualifications with which I initially approached the markets. I graduated college with a dual major in both economics and accounting. I went on to pass all four parts of the CPA exam in one sitting, something that only 2% of those taking the exam are able to achieve. I then went on to complete law school in two and a half years, and graduated ***** laude and in the top 5% of my class. I then went on to NYU for a Master of Law in taxation. I became a partner and national director at a major national firm at a very young age, where I worked to organize very large transactions. So, when I tell you that I understand the fundamentals of economics, business, and balance sheets, you can believe me.
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Sunday, April 03, 2022
Germany's DAX: What You Can Learn from the 2007 Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
Why investors should be aware of a divergence between stock prices and consumer confidence
Among the scores of stock market indicators, there's at least one that may be off many investors' radar screens.
And, that is the trend in consumer confidence. Specifically, a peak in consumer confidence tends to precede a peak in the stock market.
With that in mind, back on Nov. 25, the Telegraph said:
Consumer confidence has dropped sharply in Germany. ...
A few days later, the December Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which offers coverage of 50-plus worldwide financial markets, provided a retrospective of Germany's DAX and consumer confidence with this chart and commentary:
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Friday, April 01, 2022
Can Tracking Global Money Flow Provide Clues To Stay In The Black? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
According to The Bank of International Settlements, the global foreign currency exchange (FX) daily transactional turnover averages $6.6 trillion. At Technical Traders, we track a variety of markets, asset classes, and global money flow looking for clues that will help us in our quest for ETF returns. Interestingly when foreign exchange is charted as a benchmark to the SPY (S&P 500), we can see that FX has also been in a risk-on environment for the past 2-years.
Recently we looked at volatility utilizing the CBOE Volatility Index known as VIX. But there are alternative ways or tools that we can use to analyze asset prices.
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Wednesday, March 30, 2022
How the "Great Resignation" Ties in with a Financial Peak / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: EWI
Insights into "a peak in social optimism of monumental proportions"
Some people probably remember that country song by Johnny Paycheck from the late '70s -- "Take This Job and Shove It."
Many of those in the younger generations may not have heard of it given the song was released more than 40 years ago. However, many of them caught the spirit of it just the same as they quit their jobs in droves in what has been called the "Great Resignation."
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Tuesday, March 29, 2022
Who Benefits Most From the Russia-Ukraine War? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Submissions
With the unrest in the Black Sea basin, it appears that there are two more cross-trade wars in the world. These are about energy and currency.
Crude oil prices, down most of Friday, finally ended the week higher after a huge fire broke out at oil facilities in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, following attacks by Yemeni rebels.
The great winner of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is undoubtedly the United States, which now seems to be taking advantage of Europe’s moment of weakness.
Tuesday, March 29, 2022
Stocks: Should We Expect More Upside? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks extended their short-term uptrend on Friday, but this week we may see some more uncertainty and a possible profit-taking action.The S&P 500 index gained 0.53% on Friday following its Thursday’s advance of 1.4%. The broad stock market’s gauge extended its short-term uptrend after breaking above the 4,500 level. It gained over 380 points from the Mar. 14 local low of around 4,162. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we may see another correction and a profit-taking action at some point.
There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but investors were recently jumping back into stocks despite that geopolitical uncertainty. This morning the index is expected to open virtually flat after an overnight advance followed by its retracement.
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Monday, March 28, 2022
Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index. It is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates that are utilized to generate a 30-day forward projection of volatility. The VIX allows us to gauge market sentiment or the degree of fear among market participants. As the Volatility Index VIX goes up, fear increases, and as it goes down, fear dissipates.
Commodities and equities are both showing renewed strength on the heels of global interest rate increases. Inflation shows no sign of abating as energy, metals, food products, and housing continues their upward bias.
During the last 18-months, the VIX has been trading between its upper resistance of 36.00 and its lower support of 16.00. As the Volatility Index VIX falls, fear subsides, and money flows back into stocks.
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Friday, March 25, 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Bear Market Buying Levels / Stock-Markets / Quantum AI Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is how I expect things to play out over the next few weeks -
The prime candidates for busting to new lows are - Nvidia, AMAT, Facebook, Tesla, LRCX, ASM, MSFT, MED,
Stocks that could hold their lows are AMD, AVGO, iNTEL, QCOM, TSM but it's 50/50.
Whilst Google and Amazon have settled into trading ranges, i.e. it is a tough ask to expect new lows given their recent powerful rallies on the back of strong earnings.
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Monday, March 21, 2022
Is the Fed trying to blow another, more covert asset bubble? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The asset bubble that almost ended in Q1 2020 was rescued by two main saviors, 1) unsustainable bearish (no, terrorized) sentiment and even more so, 2) balls out central bank inflation, led by the US Federal Reserve. The resulting bubble leg was in the bag from the moment the dovish Fed made its first headline about asset purchases and rate cuts.
This latest leg of the asset bubble has been under stress in 2022, as the supposed reflection of ‘good’ inflation, the stock market (SPX), has trended down all year. More recently, commodities and precious metals have gotten dinged as well after spiking upward on the Russia/Ukraine war, which exacerbated the Fed’s inflation (as manufactured in Q1-Q2 2020) after the inflationary effects on commodity prices were already exacerbated by pandemic-related supply chain issues.
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