Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, March 05, 2017

Elliott Wave Count Points to Shallow SPX Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Mike_Paulenoff

For you occasional "wavers-counters," I was asked by a colleague of mine to provide my "count" if I chose to view the 13-month advance through a wave analysis lens.

Bottom Line: The upleg off of the Nov 4, 2016 post-election low at 2083.79 represents the 3rd of the 3rd from the Feb 11, 2016 low at 1810.10.

Saturday, March 04, 2017

Will Banks' Excess Reserves Fuel a New Monetary Crisis? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2017

By: Michael_J_Kosares

Don't look now but inflation and a new gold rush might be in our future

Introduction: Professional investors are selling stocks and buying gold. Small investors are buying stocks and neglecting gold. While the bulk of attention has gone to the stock market thus far this year, gold is up 7.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 6.2%. What is going on? In this month's issue we explore what the professional investors might know that small investors are missing?

"Banks in the United States have the potential to increase liquidity suddenly and significantly – from $12 trillion to $36 trillion in currency and easily accessed deposits—and could thereby cause sudden inflation. This is possible because the nation’s fractional banking system allows banks to convert excess reserves held at the Federal Reserve into bank loans at about a 10-to-1 ratio. Banks might engage in such conversion if they believe other banks are about to do so, in a manner similar to a bank run that generates a self-fulfilling prophecy. . . What potentially matters about high excess reserves is that they provide a means by which decisions made by banks – not those made by the monetary authority, the Federal Reserve System – could increase inflation-inducing liquidity dramatically and quickly." – Christopher Phelan, economist, Minneapolis Federal Reserve

Saturday, March 04, 2017

SPX Uptrend continues to make New All-time Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Tony_Caldaro

The week started at SPX 2367. On Monday the SPX rose to 2372, pulled back to 2359 on Tuesday, then gapped up on Wednesday hitting an all-time high of SPX 2401. Thursday and Friday saw the SPX pullback to 2375 before ending the week at 2383. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.50%. Economic reports for the week were mostly higher. On the downtick: pending home sales, construction spending, the WLEI and the Q1 GDP estimate. On the uptick: durable goods, consumer confidence, the Chicago PMI, personal income/spending, ISM manufacturing/services, the PCE, plus weekly jobless claims hit a 44-year low. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by monthly payrolls, factory orders and export/import prices. Best to your weekend and week!

Saturday, March 04, 2017

Investment Lessons to Be Learned from Golf / Stock-Markets / Investing 2017

By: David_Galland

Dear Paraders,

In my youth, I viewed golf as something only old people enjoyed. Make that OLD people.

While I was never much for sports, in my early forties I discovered polo, one of the most exhilarating sports on the planet, of which golf is pretty much the antithesis.

Friday, March 03, 2017

Stock Market February Trading Channel Brokenm, Hi-Lo Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

VIX appears to be on a stop hunt this morning to take out all the protection buyers that put stops on their hedges while the SPX weakened this morning. This move could also be an effort to stabilize stocks at the first trendline (see SPX below).

ZeroHedge observes, “The ubiquitous VIXtermination algo at the open did manage a modest jump in stocks, but that is fading fast now even as they push protection costs ever lower...”

Friday, March 03, 2017

Stocks, Bonds, CRB and Gold Multi-Markets Summary / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Gary_Tanashian

Using the most representative or notable index/ETF for each segment, let’s update the general status for a range of items (U.S. and global stocks, T bonds, commodities and gold) with a few informal thoughts.

As it’s older brother, the Dow, exceeds our target (21,000), the S&P 500 lurks just below its target of 2410.  While the market can (and probably should) correct at any time, the lack of climactic volume (ref. yesterday’s post comparing the current Dow to Silver in 2011) along with over bullish sentiment that continues to resist becoming massively (as in ‘all in’) over bullish imply that such a correction would be a pit stop, not a bear market.

Friday, March 03, 2017

The Next Financial Implosion Is Not Going To Be About The Banks! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2017

By: Gordon_T_Long

The Global Real Estate market dwarfs all financial markets by any comparison.

The Global Real Estate market being so large, it has always been stable and as such it is the favorite of institutions for long term investing - specifically Insurance companies, pensions, trusts endowments, small banks & credit unions etc. However, if it were to be destabilized only slightly it would have profound consequences globally, as well as in the US. The US Commercial Real Estate market presently approximates $13T or about one fifth the annual Global GDP.

Friday, March 03, 2017

Is Trump Delirium Burning the Stocks Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Alt-Reality President Trumps' election victory induced delirium rather than dissipating is clearly intensifying. Whilst personally having partially succumbed to the Trump delirium hot on the heels of Britains' Brexit which implied that the approaching 8 year Dow stocks bull market target of Dow 20k was far more probable than the highly vocally often repeated view by the crash is always coming crowd. So in the run up to the probable Trump election victory my view of Dow 20k as being the most probable outcome.

Friday, March 03, 2017

Dow 19,20,21….Faster, Faster! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Doug_Wakefield

Aren’t you glad that the Dow leaped to 21,000 today. I mean, just three weeks ago its low for the day was 20,015. In fact, on November 22, 2016 the Dow crossed 19,000 for the first time.

Yet why the hurry to get in now? The 8 year US “QE assisted” bull market has yet to see a 20% decline since 2008. In fact, since the Feb 11, 2017 low, the S&P 500 hasn’t had a weekly decline (Fri to Fri close) of even 2.5%. Even based on Goldman Sachs’ recent research we know the S&P 500 has not seen a 1% decline over the last 96 days, a feat only topped 3 times since 1980, none since 2000.

Thursday, March 02, 2017

Dow on Fire! Is Trump Debt Delirium Burning the Stocks Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Alt-Reality President Trumps' election victory induced delirium rather than dissipating is clearly intensifying. Whilst personally having partially succumbed to the Trump delirium hot on the heels of Britains' Brexit which implied that the approaching 8 year Dow stocks bull market target of Dow 20k was far more probable than the highly vocally often repeated view by the crash is always coming crowd. So in the run up to the probable Trump election victory my view of Dow 20k as being the most probable outcome. Even going a little further could be rationalised to to 20,150 which is about as far as I could extend a rationale post Trump election trend in the face of growing alarm at the real world consequences of a 'Trump Reset' Presidency, namely one of literally the US trending towards WAR with China!

Thursday, March 02, 2017

Stock Market At the Brink... / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The Markets appear to be dependent on what happens to the USD. This morning USD futures rose as high as 102.11, apparently completing the final probe of the retracement at a near Fibonacci 63%. A reversal from this high sets the wheels in motion with a decline beneath the 50-day Moving Average offering a sell signal.

Thursday, March 02, 2017

Stock Market Fake Risk, Fake Return? Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Axel_Merk

With seemingly everyone from the blogosphere to the Tweeter-in-chief chiming in on fake news, have investors considered their risk/return profile may also be “fake”? When it comes to investing, who or what can we trust, is the market rigged, and why does it matter?

For eight years in a row now, an investment in the S&P 500 has yielded positive returns.¹ In recent years, expressions like “investors buy the dips” and “low volatility” have become associated with this rally.

Thursday, March 02, 2017

Stock Market New Record High, S&P 500 At 2,400 Mark / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is now bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Thursday, March 02, 2017

SPX Rally Appears Complete / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

We can now say that the Wave structure is complete with a throw-over above the Cycle Top. We have round number resistance at the top as well. The reversal begins with the re-entry back beneath the Cycle Top, which appears to be happening now.

Wednesday, March 01, 2017

Stocks are higher, but the Fed trumps Trump / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

President Trump’s speech appeared to be his most “presidential,” but was short on details.

The surging dollar and rising SPX futures give some indication that Trump is still getting the benefit of the doubt.

Wednesday, March 01, 2017

Stock Market Delayed Correction Means Bigger Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Gary_Savage

At some point the stock market needs to break the price trend line to confirm a daily cycle decline. The longer they prevent the natural profit taking correction from occurring the bigger the crash will have to be to break that trend line.

Wednesday, March 01, 2017

Stock Market Good Close, but Negative Finish to the Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had a soft session today. The day started out with a little 3-wave corrective down move that held the trendlines and bounced, but then they rolled over, and rolled over sharply. The Nasdaq 100 dropped from 5344 down to 5317, and the S&P 500 dropped from 2367 down to 2359. They bounced back sharply, failed at resistance, backed off to retest, and at the very end of the day in the last 15 minutes, they came on sharply, and parred back a lot of the losses, but still closed negative on the day.

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Stock Market Breakdown / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has declined beneath its trendline and made a 47-66% retracement of its initial decline. It appears that it is now entering a third wave at a sub-minute or Micro degree. There is a lot of empty space to Short-term support at 2321.87. We may add a short position here.

A further decline beneath its earlier low at 2358.96 gives us further confirmation.

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Stock Market Correction Coming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The correction in the markets is coming.  The markets will correct in the short term, which will allow them to move much higher in 2017. The short-term indicators of market momentum are overbought. The trend indicators are clearly still BULLISH!

President Trump’s cuts and his pro-business attitude have been sending U.S. stocks into new record high territory.  This is a clear indication that investors are looking to the White House for inspiration. The SPX Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite Index are trading at all-time highs. They are extending the rally that began when President Trump was elected.

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Trump Speech a Dollar Bust? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The USD is in the limelight again today. It has failed to better the February 15 high at 101.75, giving USD a sharp Wave 2 correction last week. Yesterday it bounced off Intermediate-term support at 100.73, but was unable to even match its 50-day Moving average at 101.37. This morning’s high was 101.22. The Cycles Model suggests the next Master Cycle low may be due on March 8, but could extend as much as another week beyond. A Pi date occurs on March 13, which matches up with a possible low in SPX as well.