Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
Stock Market Bear Counter Rally Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Christopher_Quigley
Europe continues to disintegrate politically.
On the 26th of February the Irish people went to the polls in a general election. Nearly 3 weeks later a government has not been formed due to the fact that no main party won an outright majority. It looks like this instability will remain for at least another month or so. Spain went to the polls 3 months ago and still no government has been voted in. Belgium was unable for 541 days to form a government, following its general election in 2010.
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
The Four Blind Mice At the Cliff, Booms Built Reserves, Busts Liquidate Them / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Doug_Wakefield
"They Keynesian economists urge adoption of a "managed currency" and various forms of government intervention in the economic life of its fellow citizens. The idea is that government should supply an economic wisdom that private enterprise lacks or is unable to use. But even these economists see the uneconomic results of the government intervention which they advocate....Can government ever supply private enterprise with an economic wisdom which it would otherwise lack?" - Away From Freedom (1952) Vervon Orval Watts, pg 70
"Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens....As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery." - The Economic Consequences of Peace (1919) John Maynard Keynes, pg 235 & 236
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Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Stock Market Trading Cycle inverts... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
SPX closed yesterday above both its 200-day Moving Average at 2019.41 and its mid-Cycle support/resistance at 2012.67. However, this morning’s Premarket seems to have knocked it off both perches.
Today we have an inverted Trading Cycle Pivot. I originally anticipated it to be a Cycle low, as the vast majority of Trading Cycle Pivots are. Today’s Pivot corresponds with the November 16 and January 20 lows. As a result, I had miscalled the rally, expecting it to end much sooner. It appears that the rally far exceeded many other analysts calls as well.
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Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Stock Market Crash is Imminent - This Chart Explains Everything... / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Harry_Dent
The story on Wall Street and CNBC continues to be that we’re in a correction and this is a buying opportunity. Even Warren Buffett joins the chorus of stock market cheerleaders for the skeptical public. Well, I agree with the skeptical public, not the experts here!
The bull market from early 2009 into May 2015 looks just like every bubble in history, and I’m getting one sign after the next that we did indeed peak last May.
I’ve been telling our Boom & Bust subscribers for months now that the dominant pattern in the stock is the “rounded top” pattern I show in the chart below:
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Flat Close for Stock Market Indices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices started the week off with an interesting day today and finished mixed on the session. The day started out with a move up in the morning in a 5-wave advance, they pulled back in the afternoon, that held support, they rallied to nominal new highs with about forty minutes to go, and then backed off into the close to close mixed.
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Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Stock Market Waiting On Fed Wednesday.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
The market volume today was very low. The reason is simple. Not many want to place bets in front of fed Yellen on Wednesday when she does what she has to do regarding interest rates. We all know she won't raise rates this time, but the market is very interested in her language regarding the future. To get an idea if and when the next rate hike may occur. If she talks about raising in the future, I think the banks will clearly like that news, while the market reaction will be unclear, in my opinion.
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Monday, March 14, 2016
The Stock Market Crude Oil Trap / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Bob_Loukas
The price correlation between the Crude and equity Cycles was on full display last week. The only real difference is the relentless nature of Crude’s surge higher. Crude was so oversold and bearish sentiment so elevated, that its march higher from the Investor Cycle Low has been unyielding.
The action appears to be a classic bear market squeeze, as traders who bet big on a continued decline have been forced to cover their Shorts. And in the process, Crude’s mood has quickly turned. The mood was bleak and extremely bearish just a month ago, but we’ve now begun to hear opinions that the bear market has ended and that Crude has seen the bottom.
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Monday, March 14, 2016
Gold, Silver, Zika, ZIRP, and NIRP Viruses / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: DeviantInvestor
The Zika virus is the newest threat to humanity, especially pregnant women, so they say. Big Pharma is working feverishly to create a vaccine. Chances are the vaccine will be created, highly profitable, and Big Pharma will be “held harmless” for injuries to those who were vaccinated.
Add GM mosquitos, birth defects, Brazilian Olympics, big profits, and the story becomes a huge distraction. John Rappoport has suggested there is more to the story.
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Monday, March 14, 2016
Warning From the Bank for International Settlements : The Calm Before the Storm? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
By: Mike_Whitney
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is worried that recent ructions in the equities markets could be a sign that another financial crisis is brewing. In a sobering report titled “Uneasy calm gives way to turbulence” the BIS states grimly: “We may not be seeing isolated bolts from the blue but the signs of a gathering storm that has been building for a long time.”
The authors of the report are particularly concerned that the plunge in stock prices and the slowdown in global growth are taking place at the same time that investor confidence in central banks is waning. The Bank Of Japan’s announcement that it planned to introduce negative interest rates (aka–NIRP or negative interest rate policy) in late January illustrates this point. The BOJ hoped that by surprising the market, the policy would have greater impact on borrowing thus generating more growth. But, instead, the announcement set off a “second phase of turbulence” in stock and currency markets as nervous investors sold off risk assets and moved into safe haven bonds. The BOJ’s action was seen by many as act of desperation by a policymaker that is rapidly losing control of the system. According to the BIS:
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Monday, March 14, 2016
Stock Buyback Blackout Begins / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
We are now entering the blackout period for corporate stock buybacks, the largest purchaser of stocks for the past year. On the left is a chart showing the blackout periods for the past year.
Bloomberg reports, “Demand for U.S. shares among companies and individuals is diverging at a rate that may be without precedent, another sign of how crucial buybacks are in propping up the bull market as it enters its eighth year.
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Monday, March 14, 2016
Stock Market Still in Rally Mode as SP500 Climbs Above 2,000 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,050, and profit target at 1,900, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish, as we expect a downward correction or short-term uptrend's reversal at some point. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence. We decided to change our long-term outlook to neutral recently, following a move down below medium-term lows:
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Monday, March 14, 2016
Silver Peak Likely Only After Dow Stock Market Crash & Major Bottom / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Hubert_Moolman
Last year, I produced the following chart and commentary (italics) to show how the Dow could crash like it did in 1929:
Monday, March 14, 2016
Stock Market Dip Monday, Tuesday? Gold Topping / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
Last I wrote, I thought we might be breaking down out of a rising wedge pattern in the SPX. Apparently, many others thought the same thing, and you know what they say when too many agree. So many are thinking we go lower from here and that has me concerned. While I think we go lower over the next two days in the stock market (1957-62 SPX down about 3%) and I think that we are in the early stages of a bear market, the probabilities are we have one to two more weeks of general upside left before we top. My current upside targets are 2058-81 SPX.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 13, 2016
SPX Stocks Index At Tipping Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend: Severe correction underway.
SPX: Intermediate trend – .618 retracement reached as well as total projection. End of rally likely.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Sunday, March 13, 2016
Stock Market 'Reconsidering' the ECB's Recent Action / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jesse
According to the official spin, traders 'reconsidered' what the ECB did this week, and what Draghi had subsequently said, and gleefully cast off all doubts and concerns about risks and started buying equities.
Yes, I am sure that this is what happened.
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Sunday, March 13, 2016
It’s Too Early To Short Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Gary_Savage
Here are the cons to shorting the stock market:
The Fed and the PPT have a printing press. They have access to unlimited amounts of money, and they are extremely motivated in keeping the stock market propped up.
Most of the world is experiencing negative interest rates. Money is flowing out of those bond markets and it has to land on something.
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Sunday, March 13, 2016
Stocks Bear Market Rally or Not? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: WavePatternTraders
Everyone wants to really know if this is a bear market rally or will it make new all time highs on the SPX. It's been a while since I wrote an article, but in my last article I was looking for a minor new high for the SPX. To end the bull market that started from 2009. We never did see that, although we did see a new bull market high on the NDX.
Saturday, March 12, 2016
Stocks Bear Market Rally Edges Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started the week at SPX 2000. After reaching SPX 2006 on Monday the market traded down to 1977 on Tuesday. Then after two gap up openings the market traded up to SPX 2005 on Thursday before selling off to 1969. By Thursday afternoon the market reversed and was making new uptrend highs, at SPX 2022, on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.15%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.75%, and the DJ World index was +1.0%. Economic reports for the week again were slightly negative. On the uptick: wholesale inventories, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: consumer credit, export/import prices, plus the budget deficit widened. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC meeting, Industrial production and the CPI.
Friday, March 11, 2016
Stock Market Rally is Abating / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has stopped rallying after a little more than 19.5 days from its February 11 low. Not much more can be said until it breaks the uptrend line at 1975.00. Most rallies of this nature usually take less time than this, so we can say that it is unusually long.
Friday, March 11, 2016
Gold, Stocks and the Miners Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Gary_Tanashian
One is the star of the year so far, grinding higher in what could be the launch phase of a new bull market as confidence wanes in the face of NIRP and other desperate global policy actions, and the realization that this disgraceful policy designed to spur speculation and asset price appreciation is all policy makers have got left in their bags of tricks. The endgame is a bag with a hole in it; a monetary black hole.
The other grinds on in what could be the last significant hope replenishing bounce before new downside is explored. Various US and global indexes are already in bear markets but casino patrons are trained to look at the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow as “the stock market” and these have not yet gone ‘bear’. If the current bear-trend bounce fails however, that confirmation would be coming promptly.
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