Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, November 06, 2020
THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Will the November 3rd election earthquake trigger a stock market Tsunami or just a few inconsequential waves lapping on the market shore? Here we stand just a few days away from the US presidential election with the liberal MSM in a state of electoral fever as their preferred candidate is way ahead on the polls looking set to win, just as their favoured candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 was way head of the polls so unlike 2016 there is an edge to the frenzy of their activity given the awareness that the polls tend to be wrong, skewed against conservative voters and opinions. However, 2020 is even more chaotic than 2016, as this year there is the backdrop of the chinese virus raging across the US and especially in many US swing states that is contributing towards new cases of infection soaring to new plandemic highs with deaths already having broken above 230,000! Near double all of the US lives lost in all of the wars since 194 that acts as a continuing noose around the US economy, though that has so far not been enough to full fill that which the perma stock market doom merchants have been proclaiming for a more than a decade, an end to the stocks bull market.
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Friday, November 06, 2020
Trump or Biden - USA is Still Going Bananas / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
You see, it’s not a Trump thing. It’s an ‘America is so hopelessly indebted (as are other developed economies) that they have no choice now’ thing.
However the election shakes out – most likely Democrat president and congress, Republican senate – the stock market is cheering two things in my opinion. It is cheering US dollar compromising fiscal stimulus (Fed prints, politicians spend) and the coming of more US dollar compromising monetary policy (Fed prints, Fed monetizes bonds AKA debt, Fed screws with any other esoteric tool it can get its hands on in the age of MMT TMM, AKA Total Market Manipulation).
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Tuesday, November 03, 2020
Stock Market SPY Channeling lower Ahead of US Election Result / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
From a simple technical standpoint, we’ve seen a number of recent breakdowns in the SPY related to Fibonacci Price Theory and Price Gap Theory. One of the most critical components of the recent 60+ days price activity in the SPY is the failed new high on October 12. This failed attempt to rally above the previous high price level, near 358.82, suggests a broader market price decline has setup (a downtrend).
SPY 240 MINUTE CHART
After the failed new high peak on October 12, a series of new downside price gaps can be seen in the SPY chart below as price accelerated downward. These unfilled price gaps represent price acceleration to the downside and will eventually exhaust – creating a new momentum base/bottom.
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Monday, November 02, 2020
Stocks and the Dollar Weigh Into US Presidential Election 2020 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It’s evident that stocks have once again invalidated the breakout above their early-2020 high. They have also closed the week below the lowest weekly September close. Back in September, the S&P 500 index reversed on a weekly basis and rallied once again. This is similar to what happened in 2018 (August) when stocks first broke to new highs. Back then, the volatility was lower, and therefore it’s no wonder that the breakout held and this time (in September) it was temporarily invalidated.
Back in 2018, stocks moved to a new high (not significantly higher), and this time they didn’t manage to do so, but were quite close (the rally seems to have burned itself out in August).
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Monday, November 02, 2020
Stock Market Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-November correction.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction could continue as a large sideways pattern at least into mid-November, and perhaps until the end of the year.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, November 02, 2020
Stock Market Breakdown May Extend Deeper If Support Is Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The breakdown in the markets last week may have caught some traders off guard and resulted in a few stressful days. As much as we want to tell you the selling is over, my researchers and I believe the selling may continue for a bit longer as the election and uncertainty related to COVID-19, global economics and post election stimulus and US government issues continue to plague future growth expectations.
We’re presenting these custom index charts today to help you understand where key support levels are in the broader market and to help you understand what to expect if this selling continues. Over the past few weeks, we’ve published a number of research articles that provide important background and context to this article, including our research on the SPY Dark Cloud Cover pattern, NASDAQ E-minis Futures support levels, and what we see in store for prices of Gold and Silver.
One of the tools we use, in conjunction with our proprietary indicators, price modeling, and trading systems is our Custom Index charts. These charts help us to gauge and understand market price activity as well as to help quantify the scale and scope of recent trends. For example, we use these charts (and others) to better understand where, when, and how the underlying facets of the markets are shifting. Often times, this allows us to see how the mechanics of the markets are working before the outcome really starts to become evident.
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Sunday, November 01, 2020
Here’s Why The Stock Market Doesn’t Care About Next Week’s Election / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Stephen_McBride
We’re just days away from one of the most anticipated elections in history. And I’m afraid millions of investors are going to waste time and money trying to “guess” who’ll win and how it will impact markets.
The truth is, smart investors won’t waste a second worrying about which party will win. In today’s essay, I’ll show you why, and share some of my top stocks to own right now.
I could fill the next five pages with data points about how stocks performed under different presidents. I’ve even read theories saying it’s best to buy stocks on October 1 of the second year of a presidential term and sell on December 31 of the fourth year.
I’ve done all the boring work for you. I’ve studied the data back as far as 1897, and one thing is crystal clear: There isn’t some golden, predictable pattern when it comes to presidents and the stock market.
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Friday, October 30, 2020
A New World Monetary Order Is Coming / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: MoneyMetals
The global coronavirus pandemic has accelerated several troubling trends already in force. Among them are exponential debt growth, rising dependency on government, and scaled-up central bank interventions into markets and the economy.
Central bankers now appear poised to embark on their biggest power play ever.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in coordination with the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), is preparing to roll out central bank digital currencies.
The globalist IMF recently called for a new “Bretton Woods Moment” to address the loss of trillions of dollars in global economic output due to the coronavirus.
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Thursday, October 29, 2020
Stock Market Turning? Look For These Support Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The breakdown in the US stock markets early on Monday, October 26, was more about investor expectations and a transitioning away from risk ahead of the US Elections than any other factor. No new stimulus deal being reached in addition to a surge in US COVID-19 cases recently suggests another contraction in the US economy may not be too far away. Additionally, as news bombs seem to be nearly an hourly event, investors and traders are suddenly much more uncertain of the outcome of the US elections which are nearly 7 days away.
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Thursday, October 29, 2020
Stocks are Strong but be Aware of this Continuing Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The last 6+ trading days before the US elections could result in a confirmation of last month’s SPY Dark Cloud Cover pattern or a potential Harami pattern setup. What does this mean for traders and investors?
The Dark Cloud Cover pattern is a very ominous potential Top/Sell trigger in Japanese Candlestick terms. It is a fairly common pattern, like the Engulfing Bearish pattern, that manifests near major peaks in price. The one thing that really stuck out with the current Dark Cloud Cover pattern on the Monthly SPY chart was the size of the pattern. The current Dark Cloud Cover pattern on the Monthly SPY chart spans 39.56 points (nearly an 11% price range). Comparatively, this pattern is very large compared to the more recent price peak ranges.
Over the past 30+ days, we’ve published multiple research articles related to the core technical elements of the SPY chart and the Dark Cloud Cover pattern that set up in September. Pay very close attention to the Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs that also show key resistance playing out near the recent peaks. Finally, don’t forget to read our Grey Swan Alert in October’s issue of TradersWorld.
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Sunday, October 25, 2020
Corporate Earnings Season: Here's What Stock Investors Need to Know / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
By: EWI
Many investors and financial journalists believe that corporate earnings play a large role in driving stock market prices.
Here's just a couple of headlines from Oct. 13:
- Stocks open mixed on first day of earnings season (MarketWatch)
- U.S. Stocks Drop as Earnings Season Begins (Wall Street Journal)
The idea that earnings drive stock market prices seems to make sense. After all, corporations exist to make money, and if they exceed expectations, it seems logical that their share prices should skyrocket. If earnings disappoint, logic suggests that stocks should tank. And, in all fairness, when it comes to individual companies' earnings, they can and do affect prices -- although not always, and not always logically. But when you compare broad market performance with trends in earnings, you start to see a glaring disconnect. Why?
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Friday, October 23, 2020
Nasdaq Retests 11,735 Support / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Today, we are going to examine what I believe is a sideways price FLAG in the NASDAQ E-Mini Futures (NQ) that should begin a breakdown move. We believe this breakdown trend will prompt a retest of the broad support zone between 11,200 and 11,500 over the next few days and weeks. Our research team believes the current APEX formation of this FLAG formation could complete before the end of trading on Tuesday, October 20, 2020, with a very tight upward price move followed by a breakdown price move completing the Pennant/Flag formation.
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Friday, October 23, 2020
Doji Clusters Show Clear Support Ranges for Stock Market S&P500 Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Clusters of Doji shaped candles have, for centuries, illustrated very clear levels of support/resistance in price action. Whenever multiple Doji candles appear in a cluster-like formation, traders should pay attention to these levels as future support/resistance ranges for price action. In the case of the S&P500 E-Mini Futures Daily Chart, we can clearly see three separate support zones – the highest one being right where price closed on Friday (near 3475).
As the US elections near, we do expect increased volatility to become a factor in the US markets. Currently, our predictive modeling systems are suggesting a Bullish trend bias is in place in the markets. Therefore, we expect the bias of the trend to continue to push higher. Yet, these Doji Cluster support levels become very clear downside targets if increased volatility prompts any broad market rotation over the next few days/weeks. These three levels are :
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Wednesday, October 21, 2020
High-Profile Billionaire Gives Urgent Message to Stock Investors / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
In a deflationary depression, the prices of most financial assets crater, including stocks.
One well-known billionaire says it's time to shift into cash.
Here's an excerpt from a Sept. 22 CNBC article:
Billionaire media mogul Barry Diller on Tuesday urged investors to maintain sizable cash positions following the stock market's robust rally from coronavirus-induced lows in late March.
"Personally, and professionally, every nickel you can, keep it ... wherever it's banked," the chairman of both Expedia and digital media group IAC said ... "I think the market right now is a great speculation, I would stay home."
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Tuesday, October 20, 2020
More Short-term Stock Market Weakness Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-October correction.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction nearly over?
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, October 19, 2020
Commodity Bull Market Cycle Starts with Euro and Dollar Trend Changes / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this report, I would like to show you how currency values play an important role in the price of commodities like gold and silver. The analysis here is all about the EUR/USD currency pair to give you an idea of how they can help time and predict future price movement in metals. This is just one commodity pair out of several which provide similar insight and the more pairs that confirm, the stronger our signal and market timing will be.
Commodity bull eras do not need a strong Euro… but it definitely helps if the US Dollar weakens, as anything denominated in it like gold, silver, and oil will have a higher nominal value.
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Monday, October 19, 2020
Stock Market Melt-Up Triggered a Short Squeeze In The NASDAQ and a Utilities Breakout / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Rather quickly in trading late Sunday night, the NQ (NASDAQ E-Mini Futures) began to move higher quite consistently. By the time the markets opened in London on Monday, the rally was ON. We believe this is related to two underlying factors:
A. Short positions were getting squeezed after the end of week rally in the markets last week. The upside price pressure early in trading on Sunday/Monday likely forced many of these shorts out of the market – creating a Short Squeeze.
B. Global traders may be interpreting a biased election victory by Donald Trump based on news events or other information. This close to an election and with pending Q3 earnings just days away, a melt-up rally like this is fairly uncommon – unless you take into consideration that global investors may be pre positioning for an expected outcome.
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Monday, October 19, 2020
“Hypergrowth” Is Spilling Into the Stock Market Like Never Before / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Stephen_McBride
Brian Chesky’s bank account had dwindled to $1,000. He had no job. And the rent on his San Francisco apartment was about to jump by 25%.
With his back against the wall, Chesky tried a “silly” idea to make some cash. He put three inflatable mattresses in his spare bedroom and offered to rent them to attendees of an upcoming conference in town.
Chesky built a rudimentary website and advertised it as Air Bed and Breakfast. That “silly” idea is worth $30 billion today. You surely know Airbnb as the wildly successful website that lets you rent out your home to travelers.
Founded just 12 years ago, it now lists more rooms than major hotel chains Marriott and Hilton—combined!
In today’s issue I’ll show you the secret that upstart Airbnb used to beat two of the world’s most successful hotel chains.
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Thursday, October 15, 2020
Stock Market SPY Retesting Critical Resistance From Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- We continue to monitor the $339.50 level as a key resistance level.
- Our weekly SPY chart is showing that the Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc resistance level is acting as a ceiling for price and a downward trend in the Momentum indicator.
- The current rally in price may simply be another Bull-Trap set up in a typical “R” price formation near our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc resistance level.
- A SPY breakout or rally above $339.50 pushes us closer to the all-time highs, which could then could prompt a new breakout/rally in price.
My research team and I have been watching with keen interest how the markets have continued to trend sideways since setting up a major price peak on September 2, 2020. We’ve continued to suggest general market weakness in the US major indexes was likely to take place after nearly all of the US major indexes rallied above the February 2020 price highs. Our bigger concern was that a “Bull Trap” was setting up just 60+ days before the US elections.
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Wednesday, October 14, 2020
Stock Market Digestion After Decisive Bullish Trend Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Monday was a "gap up and go" session that did not look back in the rearview mirror as price action was able to decisively break above 3500s on the Emini S&P 500 (ES). This is the 78.6% retracement of the entire drop (3587-3198).
In addition, the market made its way into the 3540s area, which was also a key level around the 88.6% retracement. All in all, it was a decisive daily bullish trend day that also managed to close above two standard deviation channel highs.
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