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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Cape And Tobin Say Sell!! Bubbleomics Says Buy!! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI recently got into trouble for having the temerity to question the divine orthodoxy of CAPE, reference Tom Armistead’s excellent article about “The Disciples”. http://seekingalpha.com/...

An indignant disciple berated me for questioning the divine wisdom of my betters and I was told in words of one syllable that CAPE is for predicting real rate of return for a minimum of ten years in the future; so I should kindly keep my snide comments about the recent performance, or lack of, to myself.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Markets Liquidity Cycle Reaches A Turn / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt appears that FXE may be finished with its corrective bounce, or nearly so. There are a couple of ways to label this pattern and the chart shows the most conservative wave pattern. I am tempted to re-label, but we have time to evaluate what transpires over the next three weeks. Tomorrow is day 43 of the liquidity cycle and a turn date. Remember, I had mentioned that we have been seeing significant turns on or near dates divisible by 43. This may be one of them.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Stock Market Relative Strength Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEd Carlson writes: Certain sectors of the market are known as being market leaders; financials, technology, small caps, etc. Technicians have long-known that without participation by those “market leaders”, rallies in the broader averages won’t be able to sustain themselves. Others, often called defensive sectors, are said to “outperform” in a down market; utilities, healthcare, consumer staples, etc. The term “outperform” should not be equated with “profitable”. It simply means these sectors will do better than others in a particular environment (bull or bear market). Knowing which groups are outperforming gives us an important clue as to which direction the broader market is headed. So how can we tell which sectors are outperforming? Ratio Charts.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Stock Market Sliding Sideways...Endlessly It Seems.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: Jack_Steiman

Wednesday and Thursday of last week we saw the market take a move lower that appeared to be the beginning of a breakdown. The bears were licking their chops as the time was here for them. Then along comes Friday and a gap up that ruins the best laid plans. The market surges with the daily charts becoming very neutral once again. Today, instead of following through to the upside, we fall again. Nothing major, but, of course, no follow-through of any kind. And so it goes. Endlessly it seems. We are to the point, or at least I know I am, where I am begging for some type of breakout or breakdown that shows something more directional in nature. This whipsaw is so boring it makes it tough to get through the day, extremely boring as the volatility is gone. We simply move back and forth between a few hundred Dow points.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

To QE or Not to QE, Disinflation May Be In the Cards / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

In its most recent Meeting Minutes for June 19-20, which were released on July 11th, the FOMC gave no indications of another round of stimulus or QEIII. Nevertheless, the monetary policy making committee did reiterate that it would continue its “Operation Twist” program of bond repurchases through the end of this year.

While the immediate reaction to the FOMC Meeting Minutes depressed precious metals prices and drove the U.S. dollar higher, markets corrected afterwards. The price of gold dropped marginally, and the price of silver actually rose by 10 cents per ounce.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 16, 2012

Sorry Stock Market Bulls, The Fed Will Not Engage in More QE. / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor well over a year now, I’ve been stating that the Fed will not be able to engage in Quantitative Easing (QE) unless systemic risk hits (think another 2008). My reasons for this are as follows.

First off, the political consequences of hitting “print” (inflation) have made themselves evident to everyone. Indeed, Bernanke was talking about this point as far back as May 2011. The below quote is from a Q&A session with Bernanke during that month.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 16, 2012

The Ultimate Stock Market Death Cross / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

And now, for the main event:

Finally I want to share with you news that the S&P is on the verge of an “ultimate” death cross (see chart below). This is where a 50-month moving average (currently at 1152) falls below the 200-month average (currently 1145). The Trend blogspot (link) tries to make some sense of this very rare event. They note that the averages came close to crossing in 1978 towards the end of the 1965-82 secular bear market, but just held. By contrast Japan suffered a monthly death cross in 1998 and 14 years later we are still in the firm embrace of the bear. Watch this space.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 15, 2012

Beginning Sovereign Debt Crisis Endgame, Attack of the Zombie Banks and the New Religion of Europe / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAbout this time two years ago I began to seriously work with Jonathan Tepper on our book Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changed Everything. It came out the following March. I remember vividly that in November of that year, as crisis after crisis hit Europe, and the first of about 20 summit meetings which were supposed to solve the crisis was convened, that Jonathan and I worried that the book would not be out in time to actually catch the Endgame before it happened (at least in Europe).

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 15, 2012

Stock Market Significant Top, Downturn to Send Prices Into an Abyss / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: Darah_Bazargan

The broad market averages are now revealing overwhelming evidence that a significant top is upon us. And in the coming weeks, I fully expect the world to witness a dramatic downturn that sends prices into an abyss.

Get ready Folks, as this upcoming event will be a force not to reckon with, and for those who deny such could suffer major losses in their investment portfolio.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 15, 2012

Stock Market Uptrend Looks Corrective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: Tony_Caldaro

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn a week to week basis it does not look like the market had done much: SPX 1355 last friday, SPX 1357 this friday. During the week, however, the market had quite a roller coaster ride. A gap up opening on tuesday was sold as the SPX hit 1362. Then the market hit its low for the week thursday morning at SPX 1325. A full reversal followed, and in just over 24 hours the week ended with a marginal gain. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, but the NDX/NAZ were -1.05%. Foreign markets were also mixed. Asian markets lost 1.9%, Europeans markets gained 0.3%, and the DJ World index was -0.6%. Economic reports for the week continued their winning streak, with positives outpacing negatives 6 to 5. On the uptick: consumer credit, the PPI, WLEI and the monetary base, plus the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: wholesale inventories, export/import prices, consumer sentiment and the budget deficit expanded. Next week we get a look at industrial production, the FED’s beige book and housing.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, July 14, 2012

U.S. Federal Reserve Delivers 50% Higher Stock Market Pavlovian Premium / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: David_Knox_Barker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York has just released what is essentially a stock market manipulation bragging rights report. Based on their research, they have concluded that stock prices would be 50% lower if they had not worked their magic with interest rates, quantitative easing (QE) and various other tools in their monetary toolbox, as announced at the regular Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The report concludes that the U.S. Federal Reserve, by providing sufficient liquidity, has produced a stock market valuation pavlovian premium since 1994. They even produced a few charts to prove it.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Where Do the Stock Markets Go From Here? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week's macro view I want to spend focusing on the current market. However you want to describe it, Friday's market was odd. The best way I can describe the price action is "someone" big in the FX market did "something" big. The ramp at the open in the EUR and subsequent USD selloff on no news is something I have never seen before.

And since the FX markets are bigger than the index equity futures, I believe that is where the fuel came for the "rally." And where it gets really odd and highlights how confused and exhausted traders are is once the move was done, the day was basically over. Low volume ensued and everyone seemed afraid to fade the rally.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Stock Market Nothing Bullish...Nothing Bearish....Still! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: Jack_Steiman

It's so easy to get bearish when the market is down three days in a row. The market being an emotional machine it's very easy to get caught up in the very short-term and play on what you think will therefore be coming. Instead of simply being bullish or bearish, maybe it's best to take a look at those daily index charts and see what the message is in them. On this six-day down trend, you can see none of the major indices went below key support at the 200-day exponential moving average. The Nasdaq 100 was actually the one index that tested it. The S&P 500 and Dow didn't come close. All of the key exponential moving averages have to go away with force in order for the bears to be in full control. Forget that there's also good support not too far below those key exponential moving averages. That would also have to be broken by the bears, but at the very least, you have to remove all of those moving averages. And that just didn't happen. Close but no cigar, my friend.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 13, 2012

Stocks Bear or Bull Market, Too Close to Call / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: Toby_Connor

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIs it a bear market, or is it a bull market, that is the question.

On one hand Europe is obviously in a recession. China is slowing dramatically, and the US economy is clearly in 'stall mode' at best, and slowing rapidly at worst. That alone would suggest that a bear market has begun.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 13, 2012

Euro Zone Crisis Vs the Stock Market 4 Year Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInvestors are worried that this summer will witness a repeat of the summer debacles of 2010 and 2011. The stock market has itself vulnerable to negative news from overseas as well as earnings disappointments. Is the market’s recent behavior a portent of worse things to come? In this commentary we’ll try and determine whether the market will fulfill the bears’ expectations or disappoint them.


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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 13, 2012

Euro-zone Crisis, Crossing The Rhine / Stock-Markets / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: HRA_Advisory

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis month’s calendar has been chock a block with one important meeting or vote or conference after another.  Any one of these could have had a large impact on the endless Euro crisis.  The most impressive result (sarcasm implied) from all these meetings and votes is the overall lack of impact.   For all the wild swings in both debt and equity markets things have changed little in the past month and the European muddle through continues.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 12, 2012

US-Economy on Brink of “Double-dip” Recession as Computer Cowboys Invade Commodity Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012

By: Gary_Dorsch

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor most of Wall Street’s history, trading in equities was fairly straightforward: buyers and sellers gathered on exchange floors and haggled until they struck a deal. Computerized trading of stocks didn’t arrive onto the Wall Street scene until the 1980’s. Computer guided “Program trading,” - defined by the NYSE as an order to buy or sell 15-stocks or more, valued at over $1-million total, was blamed for the “Black Monday” Crash of October 1987. Then, in 1998, the internet opened-up markets to anyone with a desktop computer, and a trading idea. Since then, computer trading programs have grown vastly more powerful and the algorithms that guide their trading vastly more sophisticated.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 12, 2012

High Government Deficits "Crowd Out" Stock Market Returns / Stock-Markets / Government Spending

By: Dan_Amerman

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“Crowding out” is an obscure term if you're not an economist – but this replacement of the private sector economy with government spending may end up being one of the largest determinants of your standard of living during retirement.  The investment problem is that the past, present and likely future of the US economy is one of rapidly growing government spending.  Because the investment models that drive conventional financial planning assume a rapidly growing private sector, this sets up a fundamental competition between government growth and private sector growth for their shares of a single economy, and may lead to a collapse of stock market values and conventionally invested retirement portfolios.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Extreme Danger Signs, U.S. Econcomy Galloping Recession, Brewing Gold Allocated Accounts Scandal / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn recent public articles, the USTreasury Bond bubble was described, supported by Interest Rate Swaps to produce artificial demand and to create an illusion of a flight to safety in toxic USGovt Bonds. A Black Hole phenomenon was described, which will suck the capital life out of most assets, celebrate the USTBond rally, and accelerate the recession in the USEconomy. Numerous endgame signals were described, all alarming in their own right, not a single signal being from the realm of normalcy. Extreme danger is the warning. This week consider just a handful of danger signposts, all screaming loudly of systemic breakdown. They are all deeply disturbing signposts that complement the endgame signals with a scattered pox of symptoms on the landscape. The Jackass is firm and rigid in maintaining that ugly forecast made in late 2008, dismissed by many as foolish and off the mark. No longer.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 12, 2012

You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don't realize it at the time / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Submissions

Kerry Balenthiran writes: "You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don't realize it at the time."

The above quote from Shelby Cullom Davis is particularly applicable to stock markets at present, bear markets inevitably lead to investors losing faith with the stock market. However, as values stagnate prices become better value, providing that earnings are increasing. As a long term investor, providing that we have cash to put to work, the ability to buy good quality stocks cheaply should be welcomed. The reality though is that investors in the stock market, just like homeowners, prefer prices to go up after they have bought as this confirms that they made a good decision in buying.

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