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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Election Oracle

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

ElectionOracle

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Mike Pence Beats Tim Kaine to Win VP Debate Triggering Trump Bounce / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Donald Trump has been having a disastrous time following loss of the 1st Presidential debate to Hillary Clinton and then leak of his 1995 tax return as illustrated by the betting market. However, now there is sliver of hope for Trump's campaign as his running mate, Mike Pence beat Tim Kaine in the Vice Presidents debate as the post debate odds have marginally shifted in Trumps favour.

Trump could learn a lesson or two from Pence on how to win debates, which apparently is NOT by going on the defensive as Trump repeatedly did to salvos from Hillary but by just completely ignoring the attacks and instead go on the attack or try to win the audience by telling them what they wanted to hear. Though of course "Mr Know it All" Trump listens to NO ONE!

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Donald Trump Presidency Reality Show, Path to US Election Win / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst today the battle rages for the US Presidency, ultimately through shear stubbornness the character of Donald Trump appears destined to be victorious which would herald in 4 years of the Trump Presidency reality show, one of a series of sophisticated CGI victories as America takes back control, builds the 'Trump Wall' and of course defeats ISIS whilst slaying the Democratic horde.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, October 02, 2016

Donald Trump's HUGE $916m Tax Loss Equivalent to $300,000 Trillion! / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Donald Trump often bangs on about how much debt the US has accrued to date and how is going to fix it. Yes, the government debt truly has mushroomed from $1 trillion in 1980 to nearly $20 trillion today. However, the New York times has given everyone a glimpse into Donald Trumps own personal financial affairs as the NYT has managed to get hold of Trumps 1995 tax return which shows a loss of $916 million for a single year! The NYT concludes that this effectively converts into Donald Trump not having paid any tax for 18 years. And this is just for one year, we can only imagine what any one of the Donald's other tax returns would show up in terms of paying zero tax.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, October 01, 2016

How Trump Can Win the U.S. Presidential Election After 1st Debate Meltdown / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So Trump lost the 1st debate, it was not even close and Trump's statements following the debate have not helped trigger any recovery as going on the offensive against for instance with his 'fat' remarks against a former Miss Universe that even had Trump backers grimacing or claiming winning in fictitious opinion polls has just resulted in a greater erosion of Trumps chances of winning as illustrated by the betting markets that have continued to trend in Clinton's direction all week.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, September 30, 2016

Donald Trump Post Debate Meltdown, Betfair Betting Market Points to Collapse in Odds of Winning / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

According to the betting markets It appears Donald Trump's campaign is in full meltdown mode in the wake of Trumps loss to Hillary in the first debate following which instead of Trump's campaign trying to learn lessons from the defeat, instead has increasingly witnessed delusional Trump claiming victory and doubling down on by basically magnifying that which lost him the debate in the eyes of the voters as illustrated by calling into Fox and Friends that literally had the presenters grimacing in response to some of the statements that Trump was making such as being in the lead in fictitious opinion polls and then trying to defend the fat Miss Universe saga.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, September 30, 2016

After the Debate, the Deluge? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: David_Galland

Dear Debate-Watchers,

“I guess he is a buffoon after all. Too bad.”

Those words were written by a dear friend and, until the lights went out on the first presidential debate, the most ardent of Trump supporters.

For the debate, a group of us had gathered at the Social Club at La Estancia de Cafayate here in the Argentine outback.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, September 30, 2016

Donald Trump Failing to Recover After 1st Debate Hillary Shimmy Loss - Betfair Betting Market / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The betting markets tend to be better short-term gauge for reactions to political events such as the debates. In which respect Donald Trump is showing NO signs of recovering from Monday's debate loss, instead the Betfair market odds have continued to widen from 2.88 (Trump) / 1.57 Hillary just prior to the start of the debate at 2am BST, which following the debate at 4am had widened to 3.35 (Trump) / 1.44 Hillary) and now 3 full days later the betfair market price is 3.45 (Trump) / 1.45 Hillary. Thus Hillary is continuing to capitalise on Trumps debate loss by widening her lead further, which means whatever post debate strategy Trumps team is deploying is just not working!

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Why Trump Lost, Hillary Won the 1st U.S. Presidential Debate / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The pollsters, political pundits and bookies all conclude that Donald Trump lost the 1st presidential debate. Apparently it was not even close, and personally having watched the debate and waiting for Hillary to make her fatal cough which never happened, I too can vouch that those who watched the debate and were not a vested interest would conclude that Hillary clearly won as the following video illustrates why:

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Did Trump Win the 1st US Presidential Election Debate? - There's Something Happening Here... / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The pollsters, political pundits and bookies all conclude that Donald Trump lost the 1st presidential debate. Apparently it was not even close, and personally having watched the debate, waiting for Hillary to make her fatal cough which never happened, I can vouch that those who watched the debate and were not a vested interest would conclude that Hillary won.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Fascist Trump Versus Communist Hillary Battle on a Sinking Ship / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Jeff_Berwick

We watched (and live tweeted ;@dollarvigilante) the US Presidential debates last night… mostly because we were hoping Hillary would drop dead on live TV.

Unfortunately, that didn’t happen.

What did happen was that the two choices for the lesser evil this year, came down to: slightly more fascist (Trump) versus slightly more communist (Clinton).

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Why There is Trump / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Raul_I_Meijer

It’s over! The entire model our societies have been based on for at least as long as we ourselves have lived, is over! That’s why there’s Trump.

There is no growth. There hasn’t been any real growth for years. All there is left are empty hollow sunshiny S&P stock market numbers propped up with ultra cheap debt and buybacks, and employment figures that hide untold millions hiding from the labor force. And most of all there’s debt, public as well as private, that has served to keep an illusion of growth alive and now increasingly no longer can.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Hillary Wins, Trump Loses 1st Presidential Election Debate Confirmed by Betting Markets / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In my opinion Donald Trump clearly lost the debate, he literally came across at times as a spoilt brat, even as a cartoon figure whilst Hillary mostly came across as the responsible adult. So it looks like just as I warned was possible that Donald Trump could end up losing the election by failing to stick to a script, instead letting his mouth run rabid. He clearly just cannot control himself for more than a few minutes, and with 2 more debates to go means Hillary definitely has a fighting chance so this election certainly remains a close race right upto election night.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, September 26, 2016

Trump Betting Odds Narrow Going into 1st Presidential Debate Suggesting Trump Win / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The 1st of 3 presidential debates will be held in a few hours time going into which Hillary leads across a wide spectrum of indicators from polling, political pundits, electoral college forecasters such as Nate Silver who give Hillary a 60% probability of winning the election, and of course the bookmakers who have Hillary Clinton as the clear favourite with Donald Trump as a 2-1 outsider.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, September 26, 2016

Here’s Why Trump Needs More Than the Popular Vote to Win This Election / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: John_Mauldin

By David Galland, Garret/Galland Research : While driving around Burlington, Vermont, I noticed something. Actually, I noticed something missing. There were zero bumper stickers in support of Hillary.

I didn’t see a single lawn sign either.

It’s quite a contrast. In the last two elections, the displays for Obama were everywhere.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, September 26, 2016

Donald Trump’s Electoral Struggle / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Antonius_Aquinas

After touting her pro-labor union record, the Wicked Witch of Chappaqua rhetorically asked, “why am I not 50 points ahead?” Her chief rival bluntly responded: “because you’re terrible.”* No truer words have been uttered by any of the candidates about one of their opponents since the start of this extraordinary presidential campaign!

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ElectionOracle

Monday, September 26, 2016

Outrageously Entertaining US Presidential Campaign Final Stages - What Happens Next? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: James_Quinn

As this vitriolic, unpredictable, outrageously entertaining presidential campaign enters its final stages I find myself pondering what happens next. I was reminded of the last scene in the 1972 movie, The Candidate. The movie is about a young untested non-politician candidate for U.S. Senator in California who puts his fate in the hands of a veteran political operative and overcomes a double digit polling deficit to win a huge upset victory. His entire focus during the campaign was to win. In the final scene of the movie he is standing among the celebrating campaign staffers and the fawning press corp. with a befuddled look on his face. He grabs his political consultant campaign manager and pulls him into a room. As the press break into the room he asks, “What do we do now?” The question goes unanswered and the movie ends.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, September 26, 2016

Why Trump Will Win US General Election 2016 Prediction Forecast / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

There's definitely something in air across the western world which may not go as far as be classed as a revolution but at the very least 'rebellion', of where the mass of ordinary people are rebelling against the ruling establishment elite who have had an increasing grip on power through institutions and the media for at least the past 40 years as evidenced by the fact that the gap between the rich and rest has widened in virtually every year for the past 40 years, reaching levels not seen since before the second world war, ripe for rebellion even mass uprisings.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, September 25, 2016

US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

There's definitely something in the air in many nations across the western world which may not go as far as be classed as a revolution but at the very least 'rebellion', of where the mass of ordinary people are rebelling against the ruling establishment elite who have had an increasing grip on power through institutions and the media for at least the past 40 years as evidenced by the fact that the gap between the rich and rest has widened in virtually every year for the past 40 years, reaching levels not seen since before the second world war, ripe for rebellion even mass uprisings. The middle classes and working poor have had enough of being systematically turned into slaves in the service of the ruling elite, now in open rebellion as the supposed peoples power has effectively been transferred over to the corporations, bankers and billionaires who like Zuckerberg engage in publicity stunts of donating a few billion dollars here and there in an attempt to mask the magnitude of their greed. If the likes of Gates and Zuckerberg really wanted to help ordinary people then they would pay their fair share of tax rather than the pittance that allows them to amass obscenely huge fortunes.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, September 22, 2016

What If Clinton Wins US Presidential Election 2016 / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Dan_Steinbock

According to polls, the race to the White House is over. Clinton has won, Trump has lost. If that proves the case, US economic erosion will slow but imperial foreign policy may escalate, which has critical repercussions in Asia.

The polls reflect the new status quo. Despite her high unfavorability ratings, Clinton now has the support of every second registered voter, whereas Trump, with his high unfavorability ratings, can rely only on every third. As a result, Clinton’s likely voters nationwide amount to 45-50 percent, as against Trump’s 35-40 percent.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Hillary - Finally Well Deserved Recognition for Deplorables / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: BATR

When the criminal Clinton cabal announces that their infamous foe and now world renowned 'basket of deplorables' are threats to their power establishment, you are really hearing an admission that they are losing the war of ideas. It has long been a well established fact that psychopaths on the loony left are existing in a parallel universe, but it is relatively new just how desperate they have become since the public is waking up to their century long scheme to destroy America. While more and more people are joining the cause of rational national self preservation, the task of mobilizing the ranks of long oppressed productive citizens is still in its infancy stage.

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