Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Are UK Savings Interest Rates Finally Starting to Rise? Best Cash ISA 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Inflation Tsunami - Supermarkets, Retail Sector Crisis 2017, EU Suicide and Burning Stocks - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Big Moves in the World Stock Markets - Big Bases - Rambus_Chartology
4.The Next Financial Implosion Is Not Going To Be About The Banks! - Gordon_T_Long
5.Why EU BrExit Single Market Access Hard line is European Union Committing Suicide - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Trump Ramps Up US Military Debt Spending In Preparations for China War - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Watch What Happens When Silver Price Hits $26...  - MoneyMetals
8.Stock Market Fake Risk, Fake Return? Market Crash? - 2nd Mar 17 - Axel_Merk
9.Global Inflation Surges, Central Banks Losing Control and Triggered the Wage Price Spiral? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Why Gold Will Boom In 2017 - James Burgess
Last 7 days
USD Gold Myriad of Signs - 28th Mar 17
Ominous Social Trends That Will Shape Our Future - 28th Mar 17
Foundation And Empire: Is Donald Trump The Mule? - 28th Mar 17
Top Ten US Dollar Risks - 27th Mar 17
The Popularity of Gambling and Investing Amongst Students - 27th Mar 17
Is Political Betting on the Rise? - 27th Mar 17
US Stock Market Consolidation Time - 27th Mar 17
Russia Crisis - Maps That Signal Growing Instability and Unrest - 27th Mar 17
Goldman Sachs Backing A Copper Boom In 2017 - 27th Mar 17
Foundation – Fall Of The American Galactic Empire - 27th Mar 17
Stock Market More Correction Ahead - 27th Mar 17
US Dollar Inflection Point - 27th Mar 17
Political Week Presurres US Stock Market - 25th Mar 17
London Terror Attack Red Herring, Real Issue is Age of Reason vs Religion - 25th Mar 17
Will Washington Risk WW3 to Block an Emerging EU-Russia Superstate - 25th Mar 17
Unaccountable Military Industrial Complex Is Destroying America and the Rest Of The World Too - 25th Mar 17
Silver Mining Stock Fundamentals - 24th Mar 17
A Walk Down the Dark Road of Bad Government - 24th Mar 17
Is Stock Market Flash Crash Postponed Until Monday? - 24th Mar 17
Stock Market Bubble and Gold - 24th Mar 17
Maps Of Past Empires That Can Tell Us About The Future - 24th Mar 17
SNP Independent Scotland's Destiny With Economic Catastrophe, the English Subsidy - IndyRef2 - 24th Mar 17
Stock Market VIX Cycles Set To Explode March/April 2017 – Part II - 23rd Mar 17
Is Now a Good Time to Invest in the US Housing Market? - 23rd Mar 17
The Stock Market Is a Present-Day Version of Pavlov’s Dog - 23rd Mar 17
US Budget - There’s Almost Nothing Left To Cut - 23rd Mar 17
Stock Market Upward Reversal Or Just Quick Rebound Before Another Leg Down? - 23rd Mar 17
Trends to Look Out For as a Modern-day Landlord - 23rd Mar 17
Here’s Why Interstate Health Insurance Won’t Fix Obamacare / Trumpcare - 23rd Mar 17
China’s Biggest Limitations Determine the Future of East Asia - 23rd Mar 17
This is About So Much More Than Trump and Brexit - 23rd Mar 17
Trump Stock Market Rally Over? 20% Bear Drop By Mid Summer? - 22nd Mar 17
Trump Added $3 Trillion in Wealth to Stock Market Participants - 22nd Mar 17
What's Next for the US Dollar, Gold and Stocks? - 22nd Mar 17
MSM Bond Market Full Nonsense Mode as ‘Trump Trades’ Unwind on Schedule - 22nd Mar 17
Peak Gold – Biggest Gold Story Not Being Reported - 22nd Mar 17
Return of Sovereign France, Europe’s Changing Landscape - 22nd Mar 17
Trump Stocks Bull Market Rolling Over? You Were Warned! - 22nd Mar 17
Stock Market Charts That Scream “This Is It” - Here’s What to Do - 22nd Mar 17
Raising the Minimum Wage Is a Jobs Killing Move - 22nd Mar 17
Potential Bottoming Patterns in Gold and Silver Precious Metals Stocks Complex... - 22nd Mar 17
UK Stagflation, Soaring Inflation CPI 2.3%, RPI 3.2%, Real 4.4% - 21st Mar 17
The Demise of the Gold and Silver Bull Run is Greatly Exaggerated - 21st Mar 17
USD Decline Continues, Pull SPX Down as well? - 21st Mar 17
Trump Watershed Budget - 21st Mar 17
How do Client Acquisition Offers Affect Businesses? - 21st Mar 17
Physical Metals Demand Plus Manipulation Suits Will Break Paper Market - 20th Mar 17
Stock Market Uncertainty Following Interest Rate Increase - Will Uptrend Continue? - 20th Mar 17
Precious Metals : Who’s in Charge ? - 20th Mar 17
Stock Market Correction Continues - 20th Mar 17
Why The Status Quo Is Under Increasing Attack By 'Populist People Power' - 20th Mar 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Election Oracle

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

ElectionOracle

Sunday, May 10, 2015

The Guardian UK Election Seats Forecast vs Actual Result / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Guardian and the rest of the mainstream press have effectively wasted tens of millions of £'s on worthless opinion polls that got it so badly wrong that they were forecasting the opposite of what actually came to pass in terms of which party was most likely to be able to form the next government. This is an analysis of The Guardian's election seats forecasts that I tracked for 3 months in the lead up to the May 7th vote.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Sunday, May 10, 2015

ElectionForecast.co.uk Seats Forecast vs Actual UK Election Result / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

'You know nothing' said Channel 4's John Snow to the opinion pollsters, all of whom got their polling badly wrong to such an extent that they were forecasting the opposite of what actually came to pass in terms of which party would go on to form the next government. This article is an analysis of the popular ElectionForecast.co.uk election seats forecasting site that I tracked for 3 months in the lead up to the May 7th vote.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Saturday, May 09, 2015

Electoral Calculus UK Election 2015 Seats Forecast vs Actual Result / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

All of the opinion pollsters got their UK polling badly wrong to such an extent that they were forecasting the party that would end up losing by 100 seats as the one that stood the greatest probability of forming the next government. This article is an analysis of the popular ElectoralCalculus.co.uk election seats forecasting website that I tracked for 3 months in the lead up to the May 7th vote

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Saturday, May 09, 2015

May2015_com UK General Election Seats Forecast vs Outcome / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The opinion pollsters for the 2015 UK general election were not just off by a few seats but got their polling very badly wrong to the extent of which party(s) could form the next government. This article is an analysis of the New Statesman's May2015.com popular election forecasting website that produced near daily updates of the seats per party forecast based on the opinion polls, that I tracked during 3 months in the lead up to the May 7th vote.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Saturday, May 09, 2015

Nate Silver Badly Wrong AGAIN on UK General Election Forecast - 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

U.S. Election forecasting guru Nate Silver's forecasting firm http://fivethirtyeight.com, that got the 2015 UK general election just as badly wrong as he the previous 2010, have been busy putting up a smoke screen of excuses as to why they got it wrong once more, as a case of when they get it right claim praise but when wrong blames others such as the opinion polls - Its your methodology stupid!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Friday, May 08, 2015

UK Stocks, Bonds, Even Housing Market Celebrate Conservative Election Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Financial markets relief at having avoided a Labour-SNP catastrophe triggered sharp rallies across UK markets with the FTSE closing up 2.3% at 7,046 and closing in on its all time high of a month ago of 7,122. UK bonds also surged with the 10 year bond yield falling sharply to 1.8% from just above 2%. And even average house prices added 1.6% following publication of Halifax data for April with sterling strength continuing from publication of last nights exit poll.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Friday, May 08, 2015

UK House Prices Correctly Forecast / Predicted Conservative Election Win 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst the opinion pollsters, academics, pseudo-analysts (journalists) and book makers ALL got the 2015 UK general election badly wrong right upto the close of the polls, who collectively forecast that the only workable outcome would be one of a minority Labour government supported by the SNP. Instead the actual result surprised all by delivering an outright small majority Conservative government that not even the exit poll forecast and which only became apparent after about 600 of the 650 results were declared.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Friday, May 08, 2015

Labour Crisis - Call for independent inquiry into election defeat / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Submissions

Reacting on Labour's heavy defeat Neal Lawson, chair of the Compass pressure group has said:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Friday, May 08, 2015

Conservative Win 2015 UK General Election, BBC Forecast of 329 Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

With 47 seats out of 650 seats still to declare the BBC for the past half hour or so has been forecasting that the Conservatives now look set to win an outright majority of 329 seats, against Labour on 233, whilst the Lib Dems face a catastrophic result of just 8 seats, the SNP wiping out Labour in Scotland on a landslide win of 56 seats and UKIP trailing on just 2 despite a huge swing in their favour from both Labour and Conservative.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Friday, May 08, 2015

Conservative Outright Majority Election 2015 Win Possible / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Increasingly as the night has progressed where rather than one of the Exit Poll being wrong by over forecasting the number of seats the Conservatives would winl (316). Instead with 344 of 650 results declared (5.15am), it is becoming increasingly likely that the Conservatives may well just be able to pull off an outright majority (323+), this is as a consequence of the continuing stronger than forecast swing from Labour to Conservatives than indicated by the Exit Poll.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Friday, May 08, 2015

Nick Clegg Lib Dem Leader Wins Sheffield Hallam Surviving Lib Dem Bloodbath - Opinion Polls Wrong / ElectionOracle / Sheffield

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst the Lib Dem blood bath continues to unfold across the UK (at 4.55am) that the BBC forecasts could result with a catastrophic loss of 47 seats to just 10. Instead, the Lib Dem Leader Nick Clegg has managed to hold onto his affluent Sheffield Hallam seat on a majority of 2,353 votes despite the exit poll, and opinion polls turning out to be wrong.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Thursday, May 07, 2015

British Pound Soars on Exit Poll Conservative Election Win / ElectionOracle / British Pound

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The British Pound has soared following the release of the Exit Poll that forecast a defacto Conservative election win on 316 seats as part of a coalition with either the Lib Dems (10) or the DUP (8). Sterling currently stands at £/$1.5415 against the U.S. Dollar, lifting the GBP towards the upper end of its recent range and indicates to expect a similar surge for other markets such as stocks and bonds on tomorrows open.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Thursday, May 07, 2015

Exit Poll Forecasts Conservative UK Election 2015 Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Within minutes of Britain's 50,000 polling stations closing at 10pm, the Exit Poll has been released for the UK General Election 2015 that forecasts seat projections for the Conservatives on 316, Labour on 239, Lib Dems on 10 and the SNP on 58 which implies that the Conservatives have won the election and can either go it alone with support from the DUP on 324 or continue the Coalition with the Lib Dems on 326.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Thursday, May 07, 2015

UK Election Ignores BREXIT, GREXIT, Significant Economic Risks / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: GoldCore

  • UK election today expected to yield “hung parliament”
  • Election not seen marked decline in pound as was the case in run up to last election
  • Election ‘chaos’ could trigger a ‘Lehman moment’ for pound
  • Recent history shows Labour victory not inherently bad for sterling
  • Concern that Miliband’s Labour closer to that of Brown than Blair
  • BOE warn deficits could “trigger a deterioration in market sentiment towards the UK”
  • “Punch and Judy” politics ignores BREXIT, GREXIT and significant economic risk
Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Thursday, May 07, 2015

UK General Election Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Over 50,000 polling stations are open today across the UK to cope with the expected demand from an estimated 32 million voters out of a total of approx 47 million eligible to vote. With all eyes turned to the next big event of the election, the EXIT POLL to follow within minutes of the polls closing at 10pm. Which unlike the multitudes of daily opinion polls that have hardly budged for the past 2 months, the exit poll should provide an accurate gauge of what is the probable outcome of the general election some 10 hours before enough seats have been counted to make the actual result clear.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Page << | 1 | 10 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 30 | >>