Analysis Topic: Election Oracle
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 11, 2019
Opinion Pollsters, YouGov MRP General Election 2019 Result Seats Forecast / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my final analysis of a 6 part series that aims to apply lessons learned from the 2017 general election towards a forecast that at it's core is based on my UK house prices momentum analysis that was first made available to Patrons on the 24th of November 2019.
Tory Seats projection analysis to date :
- UK House Prices 322 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
- Manifestos Bribes 311 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
- Economy 324 - What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
- Marginal Seats 326 - UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
- Social Mood (patrons) - Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
- Final Forecast (patrons) - Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)
Analysis to date averages to 3xx Tory seats which shows little deviation against my core house prices based forecast of 322 tory seats.
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Wednesday, December 11, 2019
UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The 2019 December 12th general election will be won and lost in the marginal seats that is be the focus of my fourth in-depth analysis in this series that aims to fine tune my core election forecast based on UK house prices as the most accurate predictor of UK General Elections.
First a recap of my seats projections analysis to date:
- UK House Prices 322 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
- Manifestos Bribes 311 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
- Economy 324 - What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
- Marginal Seats (patrons) (UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
- Social Mood (patrons) (Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
- Final Forecast (patrons) - Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)
Wednesday, December 11, 2019
UK General Election 2019 - Tory Seats Forecast Based on GDP Growth / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.
So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general elections.
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Tuesday, December 10, 2019
YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
YouGov is set to update their MRP methodology based election polling seats forecast at 10pm today. Their existing forecast as of 27th November is for Boris Johnson to win a majority of 68 on 359 seats, whilst Labour drops from 242 to 211. As apparently Yougov accurately called the June 2017 General Election! We'll that's what Yougov and the mainstream press keep iterating and thus the obsession with their MRP forecast for 2019.
A quick search reveals - "As the dust of the general election settles, many commentators are still stating they didn’t see it coming. But we did." https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/14/how-we-correctly-called-hung-parliament , Yougov.
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Tuesday, December 10, 2019
What UK Economy (Average Earnings) Predicts for General Election Results 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.
So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.
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Tuesday, December 10, 2019
Labour vs Tory Manifesto's UK General Election Parliamentary Seats Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my third video in a series that looks a the Tory and Labour Manifesto's where my first manifesto video covered the degree to which each party was going to bribe the electorate. And the second focused on the debt dynamics of whether Britain can afford to go on a debt fuelled spending spree given current Debt to GDP of 90%.
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Monday, December 09, 2019
Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
"Ooh Jeremy Corbyn" vs "Get Brexit Done"
Everything's always obvious in hindsight and so it was for the 2017 General Election campaign. We might all have seen it on the TV, but it just failed to register with most. What am I talking about? It is the phenomena that was Jeremy Corbyn or JC! In 2017 we saw it in his speeches, we saw it in his interviews and we definitely saw it at his mass rallies! Ooh Jeremy Corbyn, Ooh Jeremy Corbyn! Some 2.5 years on "Ooh Jeremy Corbyn" may have become a little bit stale but you can still hear it humming in background.
Even fellow Blairites who literally hated most things Jeremy Corbyn stood for i.e. his 1970's style socialist ideology could not fathom the amount of interest that he was generating as JC was EVANGELICAL! So is those close to him could not understand what was going on then what hope did those who never met him in person have.
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Monday, December 09, 2019
Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This article continues from (30 Nov 2019 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election) concluding in Tory seats forecast as a consquecne of the Labour vs Tory manifestos.
However, Maniesto impacts analysis is part of a series of pieces of in-depth analysis that were first made available to Patrons who support my work.
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Monday, December 09, 2019
Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2 of 2 of my UK housing market analysis as consistently the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections. Where part 1 covered how house prices forecast the previous general elections including lessons learned from 2017 (UK House Prices Predicting the Outcome of General Election 2019). And now this analysis converts current UK house prices monentum into a Tory election seats forecast for the 12th December 2019 general election.
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Monday, December 09, 2019
Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The 2019 December 12th general election will be won and lost in the marginal seats that is be the focus of my fourth in-depth analysis in this series that aims to fine tune my core election forecast based on UK house prices as the most accurate predictor of UK General Elections.
First a recap of my seats projections analysis to date:
- UK House Prices 322 (UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast)
- Manifestos Bribes xxx (Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast)
- Economy xxx (What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019)
- Marginal Seats
The top 30 or so marginal Labour and Conservative seats will determine the outcome of this General Election just as they had for the 2017 General Election that all of the pollsters and pundits got so badly wrong i.e. instead of Tories winning most of Labours most marginal seats it was Labour who won most of the Tories most marginal seats.
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Sunday, December 08, 2019
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2 of 2 of my UK housing market analysis as consistently the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections. Where part 1 covered how house prices forecast the previous general elections including lessons learned from 2017 (UK House Prices Predicting the Outcome of General Election 2019). And now this analysis converts current UK house prices monentum into a Tory election seats forecast for the 12th December 2019 general election.
However, note that this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work on the 24th of November 2019 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Results Forecast. So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Sunday, December 08, 2019
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: N_Walayat
At the 2017 General Election Labour surprised all including themselves by winning Sheffield Hallam, and ejecting the former Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg from Parliament.
Unfortunately for Labour Jared O' Mara turned out to be a total disaster, heralding 2 years of chaos and failure to represent the constituents of Sheffield Hallam that included being suspended from the party, all at a time when the local population was in open revolt to the insane policies emanating out of the city council.
And so now 2 1/2 years on the Lib Dems look set to retake the Sheffield Hallam seat form a chaotic Labour party. Especially given the close result in 2017. That saw Labour winning the seat by just over 1000 votes.
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Saturday, December 07, 2019
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits. / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is literally promising voters everything under the sun! Scrapping Universal Credit, Giving all public sector workers a 5% Labour pay hike bribe, Free personal care fore the elderly, scrapping of tuition fees, £30billion Increase in annual NHS spending!
All of which translates into an increase in government day to day spending of about £80 billion, or 10% per year!
AND additional 'investment' spending of £55 billion a year. For a total annual increase in spending of £135 billion, more than 2.5X the tax bribes of 2017! And that's EXCLUDING Labours plan for mass nationalisation. a bill for which runs into the hundreds of billions!
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Saturday, December 07, 2019
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: N_Walayat
The Lib Dems have declared war on Britain's letter boxes by stuffing them full with leaflets, many of which are a bit dodgy, fake even!
For instance pretending that Tory MP's are asking them to vote for the Lib Dems to prevent Labour from winning a close Lib Dem / Labour marginal seat as is the case in the Sheffield Hallam Constituency that is literally seeing a barrage of leaflets and letters posted every day.
However, it is highly probable that for this constituency the Lib Dems do look set to win the seat from Labour as a consequence of the disaster that was their MP for the past 2 1/2 years. But the Lib Dems are making a huge mistake if they think the voters are too stupid to see through their fake election leaflets because NOT TORY MP is going write letters instructing voters to VOTE for the Lib Dems!
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Friday, December 06, 2019
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / Climate Change
By: N_Walayat
Where in a climate emergency that demands both cutting back carbon production and increasing carbon capture. In which respect one of the best mechanisms to achieve this emergency objective are TREES!
However, devoid of commonsense, several years ago the Labour controlled Sheffield City council embarked on a plan to fells tens of thousands of Sheffield's largest trees, typically 200 times the volume of replacement saplings. Literally millions of tons of carbon have been unnecessarily released by the Labour Council felling Sheffield's biggest trees that soak up vehicle pollution and releasing oxygen into the streets, which is why they were planted in the first place typically over a 100 years ago to help clean up Sheffield's toxic air environment of that time which given the volume of traffic remains just as toxic now as it was then.
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Friday, December 06, 2019
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
If one looks back to 2017 then two things stick out where the Manifesto's of the two main parties were concerned.
1. Jeremy Corbyn promising to ramp up government spending by nearly £50 billion per year or about 2.8% of GDP to be funded by tax hikes of £50 billion on the top 5%! That included a "Robin Hood" tax on financial transactions. Where in reality Labour would have been lucky to get half the tax hike they were budgeting for and thus set to increase the deficit by £25 billion per year. Where Brexit is concerned, Labour had ruled out a No Deal Brexit.
2. Theresa May's "strong and stable" promised to get Brexit done but no new voter bribes, just to continue to move towards raising the personal tax allowance to £12,500. A manifesto full of weak pledges with the underlying aim of balancing the budget by 2020 that translated into more economic austerity, hoping that the voters were too stupid to notice that they are getting nothing in exchange for the Tories wanting an increased majority. Which included the disastrous social care policy for the elderly and what came to be known as the "Dementia Tax" that cost the Tories many seats.
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Thursday, December 05, 2019
What UK CPI, RPI and REAL INFLATION Predict for General Election Result 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.
So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.
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Thursday, December 05, 2019
UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In this series of videos in the countdown to polling day, December 12th conclude in a detailed seats forecast for the Torys, Labour, Lib Dems and SNP, analysis and forecasts based on 9 key lessons learned from the 2017 general election that I covered in an earlier video where as the opinion polls have consisnteyl been wrong for now 4 UK elections in a row and thus should be ignored whilst the actual most accurate preduictor of UK elections has consistently been my house prices based forecasts and average earnings growth. For this election the 9 key lessons learned resolve into 5 pieces of in-depth analysis that aim to accuratelty forecast the outcome of the December 12th Vote.
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Thursday, December 05, 2019
Lib Dems Winning Election Leaflets War Against Labour - Sheffield Hallam 2019 / ElectionOracle / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
The Lib Dems have declared war on Britain's letter boxes by stuffing them full with leaflets, many of which are a bit dodgy!
This is especially the case for those living in the Sheffield Hallam constituency where there is a battle between Labour and the Lib Dems that is likely to see Labour lose their seat to the Lib Dems after the disastrous term of Jared O' Mara. That follows the disaster that is the city council and it's anti climate change policy of felling thousands of Sheffield's street trees.
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Wednesday, December 04, 2019
Will Labour Government Plant More Tree's than Council's Like Sheffield Fell? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: N_Walayat
Labour's manifesto promise is to plant 2 billion trees by 2040 is clearly a figure plucked out of this air much like most of Labour's manifesto. Still if Labour managed to achieve even half that target that it would be an huge achievement. However there is a fly in the ointment and that is the behaviour of inept Labour councils across Britain such as Sheffield's who over the past few years have been on a TREE FELLING rampage, trees that have been felled in their thousands are typically equivalent in volume to about 200 saplings planted, many of which fail to survive.
Sheffield has seen virtually every tree lined street hit by chainsaw massacres.
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