Analysis Topic: Election Oracle
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Could a Lurch Toward Socialism Sink Democrats in 2020? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Rahm Emanuel, the former Chief of Staff for President Barack Obama and now Mayor of Chicago, is worried about socialism. Of course, he’s a proponent of redistribution and collectivist initiatives such as socialized medicine. He just thinks it’s bad politics.
He believes too many Americans aren’t yet keen on overt socialists running for office.
According to Emanuel, Democratic candidates and operatives should distance themselves from using the word “socialism” and find other ways to describe their agenda.
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Friday, November 09, 2018
US Mid-terms Post-Election Run Down: Biggest Winner, Biggest Loser / ElectionOracle / US Congressional Elections
By: MoneyMetals
Tuesday's elections produced some winners, some losers, some surprises, and some lingering uncertainties.
For investors, the potential for a major shock to the markets was averted. But with Democrats poised to take control of Congress, new legislative threats to wealth holders loom on the horizon.
Even though the GOP lost the House of Representatives, it gained seats in the Senate – a rare feat during a mid-term election for a party that controls the White House. President Donald Trump hailed the night a “tremendous success.”
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Tuesday, November 06, 2018
US Midterm Elections Forecast 2018 / ElectionOracle / US Congressional Elections
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Several patrons have messaged me asking for my views on the mid-term US elections. Whilst I’ve not been following these elections too closely i.e. in terms of betting on them, nevertheless here is my view which is primarily based on the fact that usually the party that holds the White House tends to do badly in the mid-terms.
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Wednesday, August 22, 2018
US False Flag Election / ElectionOracle / US Congressional Elections
By: BATR
A conventional election cycle gets serious and begins when the Labor Day holiday is over. Well, there is nothing normal in a country which is divided among establishment statists, global corporatists, extreme anarchists, Marxists authoritarians vs. Trump 'Deplorables'. The prospects of the 2018 midterm U.S. Federal elections have the entire political structure of the power elites in a panic. The President ran on a platform as a 'Disrupter' and he has fulfilled the dismantling and substitution of many unaccountable Deep State operatives with honest public servants. Brace yourself for much more than the silly season of campaigns. Get ready that the danger level of a monumental false flag is upon us and that the country faces a shock heard round the world.
Friday, May 04, 2018
Sheffield Local Elections Full Results - Labour Loses Seats to Tree Felling Protests / ElectionOracle / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
Labour paid the electoral price for their arrogance against the expressed wishes of tens of thousands of Sheffielders, increasingly angry at the felling of thousands of healthy street trees as the local elections saw the Labour ruling regime lose a net 3 councilors, 1 to the Liberal Democrats and 2 to the Green Party, whilst UKIP lost their only standing councillor at these elections to the Lib Dems.
Friday, May 04, 2018
UK Local Election Results - Pollsters and Pundits Wrong Again! Trees Fell Sheffield Labour Council / ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The mainstream press backed up by the polling industry had once more built themselves up into a frenzy of reporting with much certainty that the Conservatives were heading for an electoral blood bath in the local elections, with the London epicentre expected to ripple out across the regions as Corbyn's Labour party was expected to build on last years shock General Election results that crippled Theresa May's government which had the effect of throwing the Tories into a state of panic that had many Labour councils already counting their electoral chickens before they were hatched.
Wednesday, May 02, 2018
UK Local Elections 2018 Shock Predictions! Labour London Gains Offset by Regional Losses / ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The mainstream press backed up by the polling industry has once more built themselves up into a frenzy of reporting with much certainty that the Conservatives are heading for an electoral blood bath in the local elections, with the London epicentre rippling out across the regions as Corbyn's Labour party is expected to build on last years shock General Election results that crippled Theresa May's government which has had the effect of throwing the Tories into a state of panic whilst many Labour councils are already counting their electoral chickens before their hatched. All whilst forgetting that the same pollsters and pundits got last years general election very badly wrong! And so one has to beg the question are they all badly wrong AGAIN? Which would be for SIXTH ELECTION IN A ROW!
Monday, April 30, 2018
Labour Local Elections Landslide, Are Opinion Pollsters & Pundits Wrong Again? Sheffield Trees Case / ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The mainstream press backed up by the polling industry has once more built themselves up in a frenzy of reporting with much certainty that the Conservatives are heading for a blood bath in the local elections, with the epicentre London ripping out across the regions as Corbyn is NOW expected to build on his shock General Election result of last year that crippled Theresa May's government. All whilst forgetting that the same pollsters and pundits got last years general election very, very badly wrong! And so one has to beg the question are they wrong AGAIN, likely for the FIFTH TIME IN ROW!
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Sunday, April 29, 2018
Sheffield City Region Mayoral Election Results Forecast (South Yorkshire) / ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections
By: N_Walayat
On May 3rd in addition to the local city council elections, the larger Sheffield city region (Sheffield, Doncaster, Barnsley, Chesterfield, Rotherham and apparently including large chunks of Derbyshire) will also hold an election for South Yorkshires first Mayor (sorry people who live in Derbyshire your now part of South Yorkshire). The candidates will likely be unknown to most voters, and all that voters can really go is where they are from, live and work. And what they represent in terms of party politics.
Saturday, April 28, 2018
UK Local Elections Forecast 2018 - Trees vs Labour Sheffield City Council / ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections
By: N_Walayat
The local elections will be held in less than 1 weeks time on Thursday 3rd of May 2018 when 1/3rd of Sheffield's city council seats are up for election, that's 28 out of a total of 84 seats. The current make up of the council has the Labour party on 56 seats resulting in an commanding majority of 28. Which has effectively allowed the Labour council free reign to adopt whatever policy they chose fit regardless of electoral consequences, and when criticised for some of their 'crackpot' actions such as signing a contract with a Spanish owned contractor that includes a target to to fell HALF of Sheffield's street trees at a time of climate change catastrophe, Labour councilors have tended to respond by referring to their strong electoral mandate.
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Friday, April 27, 2018
Will Tree Protests Fell Sheffield Labour City Council? Local Election Results Forecast 2018 / ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections
By: N_Walayat
The local elections will be held in less than 1 weeks time on the 3rd of May 2018 when 1/3rd of Sheffield's city council seats will be up for election, that's 28 out of a total of 84 seats. The current make up of the council has the Labour party on 56 seats resulting in an commanding majority of 28. Which means that the Labour council can do whatever it wants regardless of electoral consequences, and when criticised for some of their crackpot actions such as signing a contract with a Spanish owned contractor to fell HALF of Sheffield's street trees, tends to respond with the fact that the people of Sheffield voted for them.
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Saturday, April 21, 2018
Sheffield Ruling Labour Party Could Lose 10 Council Seats at May Local Elections / ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections
By: N_Walayat
A growing peaceful street revolution had been under way against Sheffield city councils ruling Labour regime in the countdown to the May 2018 Local elections in response to the rampant felling of thousands of street trees where there exists a contractual target to fell as many as half of Sheffield's Street trees during the lifetime of the PFI contract with Amey.
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Sunday, July 30, 2017
Hacker Cracks US Voting Machine - If Politics Seem Messy Now, Just Wait / ElectionOracle / US Politics
By: John_Rubino
It’s already widely understood that the electronic voting machines used by a growing number of US states are easy to hack. But just how easy may not be clear. Consider this from today’s Wall Street Journal:
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Monday, July 10, 2017
How to Accurately Forecast the UK General Election in Nine Steps / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In early April everything appeared to be going smoothly for Britain, Article 50 had been triggered without any significant political opposition apart from the SNP's shrill cry for another independence referendum from north of the Scottish border. But then Theresa May made the fatal mistake of believing the tripe that calls itself Britain's polling industry, that convinced her that a snap general election would yield a landslide victory, thus strengthening her hand in the about to begin BrEXIT negotiations.
And so started Britain's decent into chaos, an election campaign that had many Tory supporters asking if Theresa May was actually trying to lose the election by her antics most notable of which was her u-turn on the manifesto dementia tax. Whilst on the other hand the mainstream media was totally blind to the way Jeremy Corbyn was galvanising the anti-austerity vote, where every pundit and forecaster without exception right up until the polls closed on June 8th expected the Conservatives to win with an INCREASED majority, on a tally ranging to as high as 414 seats, though most clustered around 365 seat for the Tories.
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Friday, July 07, 2017
UK Election Forecasting - YouGov Snatches Defeat from the Jaws of Victory! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The most notable outlier forecast of the 2017 UK general election was YouGov's seats forecast announced about 2 weeks prior to the general election that was contrary to every other pollster and analysts at the time. Initially YouGov forecast that the Tories would only achieve 310 seats.
Friday, July 07, 2017
UK House Prices the Most Accurate General Election Forecast Predictor / ElectionOracle / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK house prices wealth effect once more proved to be the MOST accurate forecaster for the outcome of UK general elections i.e. April house prices data implied 342 Tory seats, which far more reliable when compared to the a range of forecast expectations primarily by pollster based analysts that extended 375 seats just prior to polling day.
Sunday, July 02, 2017
UK Election 2017 Disaster, Fake BrExit Chaos, Forecasting Lessons for Next Time / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
During Mid April everything appeared to be going smoothly for Britain, Article 50 had been triggered without any political opposition apart from Sturgeons shrill cry's for another Independence referendum from north of the Scottish border. But then Theresa May made the fatal mistake of believing the tripe that calls itself Britain's polling industry, that convinced her that a snap general election would yield a landslide victory, thus strengthening her hand in the about to begin BrEXIT negotiations.
Wednesday, June 28, 2017
Are the UK Elections a Forgone Conclusion? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Submissions
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Friday, June 23, 2017
Nether Edge By Election Result: Labour Win Sheffield City Council Seat by 132 Votes / ElectionOracle / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
The Labour party managed to cling on to their Nether Edge and Sharrow Sheffield city council seat on a reduced majority as the Lib Dems split the opposition vote thus depriving the Green party of their 5th city councillor as the results illustrate:
STEINKE Jim - Labour Party 2641
UNWIN Rob - Green Party 2509
ALI Shahid - Liberal Democrats 722
Tuesday, June 13, 2017
When Will Theresa May 'Dead Woman Walking' Resign? Forecast / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
George Osborne the architect of the Conservative surprise general election victory of 2015 that no one saw coming as every polls based forecaster had been expecting a hung parliament with the most probable outcome being that for a Labour led coalition government. Instead David Cameron's Tories in 2015 eeked out a small outright majority government that gave the Conservatives the false confidence to go ahead with the EU referendum again based on the opinion polls that REMAIN just could not lose, but they did and so did Cameron and Osborne, replaced by May and Hammond.