Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, November 17, 2019
When the Crude Oil Price Collapses Below $40 What Happens? PART III / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This, the final section of this multi-part research article, will continue our exploration of the consequences that may result from our ADL predictive modeling system’s suggestion that Oil may continue to fall to levels below $40 over the next few months.
In Part I and Part II, we’ve highlighted what we believe to be very compelling evidence that any continue oil price decline from current levels may be setting up the global markets for a massively volatile price reversion – similar to what happened in 1929.
Prior to the stock market collapse in 1929 and the start of the Great Depression, commodity prices collapsed in 1921 and again in 1930. This commodity price collapse was the result of over-supply and a dramatic change in investor mentality. The shift away from tangible items and real successful investing/manufacturing and towards speculation in the housing markets and stock market.
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Sunday, November 17, 2019
If History Repeats, Gold is Headed to $8,000 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Submissions
The gold price bottomed in late 2015 around $1,050 per ounce. It has since advanced to a high of $1,555 in early September, followed by a pullback to the current price of $1,470. Gold is in a well-defined uptrend channel with higher lows and recently higher highs. The breakout above $1,360 this summer was significant and we have seen follow-through buying. The $420 move in the price of gold from the bottom in late 2015 represents a gain of 40% in just under four years.
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Friday, November 15, 2019
Five Gold Charts to Contemplate as We Prepare for the New Year / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Michael_J_Kosares
1. Gold’s annual returns 2000 to present
In the February edition of this newsletter, we ran an article under the headline: Will 2019 be the year of the big breakout for gold? Though we would not characterize gold’s move to the upside so far this year as ‘the big breakout,’ 2019 has been the best year for gold since 2010 even with the recent correction taken into account. Back in September when the price gold reached $1550 per ounce – up almost 22% on the year – 2019 was looking more like a breakout year. Now with the move back to the $1460 level, the market mood has become more restrained. As it is, gold is up 15 of the last 19 years and still up 14.45% so far this year.
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Friday, November 15, 2019
What happens To The Global Economy If Oil Collapses Below $40 – Part II / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this research article, we shared our ADL predictive modeling research from July 10th, 2019 where we suggested that Oil prices would begin to collapse to levels near, or below, $40 throughout November and December of 2019. Our ADL modeling system suggests that oil prices may continue lower well into early 2020 where the price is expected to target $25 to $30 in February~April 2020.
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Thursday, November 14, 2019
Gold and Silver Capitulation Time / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
With gold and silver prices having tumbled, sector expert Michael Ballanger outlines how he will weather the storm.
"People everywhere are being fed propaganda, lies and false stimuli of all kinds, but deep in their hearts, deep in their instincts, they know something is wrong."—G. Edward Griffin, author of The Creature from Jekyll Island
My usual weekend missive was mildly delayed for a very good reason; I spent most of Friday evening and Saturday morning formulating this wonderfully verbose theory on why the Fed's sudden shift from "quantitative tightening" to "massive stimulus" had such a negative effect on yields, with an associated and very sharp spillover into my beloved precious metals.
Having read it over several dozen times, I then began mulling over the various charts that I post from time to time and quickly decided to "bin it," because my readers no longer wish to hear about the COT report or the "cartel" or the "egregious open interest" or "fraudulent bullion banks." I can't state this forcefully enough: We have all seen this before way too many times.
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Thursday, November 14, 2019
The Case for a Silver Price Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Yes, you read that right. Despite all the bearish developments that we described in the previous analyses, and despite myriads of bearish factors that remain in place for the following months, it seems that the white metal is about to rally. Gold, and mining stocks could move higher as well, and we’ll move to that shortly. For now, let’s talk silver.
Thursday, November 14, 2019
What Happens To The Global Economy If the Oil Price Collapses Below $40 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Currently, commodity prices are the cheapest they’ve been in over 40 years compared to equity prices. US Equities have continued to rise over the past 7+ years due to a number of external processes. QE1, 2, 3, and Fed Debt Purchases Share Buy-Backs and creative credit facilities. Only recently have investors really started to pile into the US stock market (see charts below). Global investors were very cautious throughout the rally from 2011 to 2016. In fact, the amount of capital invested within the US money market accounts was relatively flat throughout that entire time.
It was only after the 2016 US presidential election that investors really began to have confidence in the global economy and started piling into the US stock market and money market accounts. This was also after the time that Oil began to collapse (2014~16) as well as the deflation of Emerging Markets rallies. With all this new money having entered the global markets and equities being extremely overbought currently, what would happen is Oil collapsed below $40 and the global economic outlook soured headed into the 2020 US presidential election?
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Thursday, November 14, 2019
The EIA Is Grossly Overestimating U.S. Oil Shale / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The prevailing wisdom that sees explosive and long-term potential for U.S. shale may rest on some faulty and overly-optimistic assumptions, according to a new report.
Forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), along with those from its Paris-based counterpart, the International Energy Agency (IEA), are often cited as the gold standard for energy outlooks. Businesses and governments often refer to these forecasts for long-term investments and policy planning.
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Tuesday, November 12, 2019
Gold Price Breaks Down, Waving Good-bye to the 2019 Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Our summary of the current situation in the precious metals is not going to differ much from what we wrote yesterday, and the reason is simple. The decline in gold, silver, and miners is developing just as we’ve been expecting it to. Most importantly, gold has just confirmed its breakdown and everything that we reported on gold’s outlook and price targets just got a huge confirmation.
Let’s take a look at what gold, silver, and mining stocks did in the last couple of days.
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Tuesday, November 12, 2019
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Oil, Gold and Stocks Investing – Part II / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In Part I of this research post, we highlight how the ES and Gold reacted 24+ months prior to the 2007-08 market peak and subsequent collapse in 2008-09. The point we were trying to push out to our followers was that the current US stock market indexes are acting in a very similar formation within a very mature uptrend cycle.
We ended Part I with this chart, below, comparing 2006-08 with 2018-19. Our intent was to highlight the new price high similarities as well as the price rotation similarities between the two critical peaks in market price. We are terming the current market a “Zombie-land” because it appears global investors are somewhat brain-dead as to the total risks that are setting up in the global markets right now. But, wait before you continue reading make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.
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Tuesday, November 12, 2019
Gold Price Is Likely Approaching A Local Bottom / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
The metals market is an extremely emotional one. The highs and lows you see with metals traders are evident at each of the extremes. I think we are now approaching another extreme.
Several months ago, back in early June, I notified those willing to listen that gold was preparing to “take off like a rocket-ship.” To my members of ElliottWaveTrader.net, I outlined my expectations for a strong rally to the 137 region, followed by a continued move to the 143/45 region before we see a larger consolidation. Thus far, the market has been reacting as generally expected.
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Tuesday, November 12, 2019
Gold Retest Coming / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold and silver stocks have held up decently during the correction in precious metals, which is now in its 3rd month. However, as we mentioned last week, the bugaboo has been the relatively high net speculative position in Gold, which has not changed much despite recent weakness in the sector.
Technically Gold cracked last week and the downside momentum coupled with the relatively high net spec position argues that Gold is headed for a retest of the summer breakout.
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Monday, November 11, 2019
Gold and Silver - The Two Horsemen / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Global central banks have been pumping the liquidity spigots 24/7 and the US Fed is starting to go that way as well. This during a time of supposed economic splendor and fruitfulness (it is these contradictions that are the windows into a ginned up, leveraged economy dependent on monetary policy) while the S&P 500 breaks through the bull turnstile to blue sky.
Monday, November 11, 2019
Illiquidity & Gold And Silver In The End Game / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
…the financial system experienced some serious liquidity shortages in August 2007, and the Fed injected funds to help keep financial markets operating effectively so that they would continue to support ongoing economic activity
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, August 2007
In August 2007, a credit crunch swept global markets forcing central banks to provide billions in emergency liquidity to ensure markets remained functioning. Despite the emergency infusion, financial markets and investment banks collapsed one year later in the greatest financial crisis since the 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression of the 1930s.
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Sunday, November 10, 2019
Australian Lithium Mines NOT Viable at Current Prices / Commodities / Lithium
By: Richard_Mills
Australia’s Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) said last week it is pausing operations at its Wodgina lithium project, a joint venture with US-based Albemarle, due to “challenging lithium market conditions.”
“Given the current challenging market conditions for lithium, the MARBL Lithium Joint Venture believes there is more value to be delivered in the long term by placing Wodgina on care and maintenance now,” MIN Managing Director Chris Ellison said, on the same day a transaction concluded giving US-based Albemarle a 60% stake in the facility, located in Western Australia.
Market conditions are difficult primarily for two reasons: low prices due to oversupply from Australian hard-rock lithium producers, most of whom sell their spodumene concentrate to China; and reduced Chinese demand for lithium, after Beijing cut EV subsidies that made electric vehicles more affordable.
Demand has also been dented by bottlenecks in Chinese chemical conversion facilities, that make lithium hydroxide from spodumene concentrate.
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Sunday, November 10, 2019
The 10 Highest Paying Jobs In Oil & Gas / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: OilPrice_Com
Make no mistake: Oil and gas companies may be doing some serious cost-cutting and slimming-and-trimming to stay competitive after the shale boom binge, but when it comes to employment, it’s still one of the best industries to hit up for a job.
Jobs are booming, just as much as U.S. oil and gas production is.
US oil production has increased from 11.7 million bpd at the start of 2019 to 12.6 million by the end of October, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Natural gas production has risen as well, to 99.1 Bcf/d at the end of October—95 Bcf/d of which is from dry natural gas—up from 91.3 Bcf/d this time last year for total US natural gas production.
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Sunday, November 10, 2019
Gold GLD Update… Bear Watch / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
A line chart can give you a different perspective vs a bar chart which is why I like to use them both to help uncover a potential pattern. Line charts can often times give you a quicker heads when a stock is breaking out.
Below is a weekly line chart for GLD which shows you why I’m so concerned about the PM complex right now. As you can see this weekly line chart shows a triple top with the breakout in progress. My biggest concern is that we could see some reverse symmetry to the downside as shown by the blue arrows. Many times how a stock goes up is how it may come down over that same area especially when the move was strong.
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Sunday, November 10, 2019
World's Major Gold Miners Target Copper Porphyries / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Richard_Mills
Something has changed in the gold industry. During high gold-price periods the trend was to produce as much as possible - in many cases, irrespective of higher extraction costs per ounce. In a way you can’t blame them for making hay while the sun shone. The gold price rose for 12 consecutive years, hitting an all-time high of $1,907 an ounce in that heady summer of 2011. Why wouldn’t it continue?
Their lack of cost control came back to haunt the major gold miners when prices crashed in 2013, along with their market values.
Partying like it’s $1,900/oz
During the decade-long gold run (2001-11), gold giants like Newmont, Barrick, Goldcorp and Newcrest tried to out-mine each other with the annual ounce count being the main driver of shareholder returns and CEO bonuses.
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Saturday, November 09, 2019
Five Reasons Why Gold is Still a Superior Investment / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Submissions
Gold has been the most popular form of investment and one of the most reliable assets recognized for its multiple use and rare value. Following the recent introduction of other investment substitutes, a number of people are made to believe that gold is less superior than the others. This article will highlight five reasons why gold has not lost its value, but still thrives as an investibleRead full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 09, 2019
Gold & Silver to Head Dramatically Higher, Mirroring Palladium / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in David Jensen of Jensen Strategic and a highly studied mining analyst and precious metals expert with close to two decades of experience in the mining industry. And it's great to have him back on with us.
David, thanks so much for the time again today, and it's nice to talk to you again. Welcome.
David Jensen: Thank you, Mike. It's good to be back with you again.
Mike Gleason: Well, David, we had you back on at the beginning of the year and you shared some amazing insights on palladium, and we'll get to that in a bit because that market is still very interesting. But first off, you've been watching the Fed balance sheet closely here and I wanted to get your comments about that to begin with. Now, after the extraordinary expansion, which followed the 2008 financial crisis and a few rounds of QE, the Fed began contracting the money supply in 2017. You've been making the case that the withdrawal of liquidity could trigger another catastrophe.
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