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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Monday, November 24, 2014

Why Gold Price is Headed Much Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Michael_Pento

What really drives the price of gold? Some say it's a fear gauge. Others prefer to look at the demand coming from the Indian wedding season. But the silliest of all conclusions to reach is that the dollar price of gold should be determined solely by its value vis-à-vis another fiat currency.

The truth is the primary driver of gold is the intrinsic value of the dollar itself, not its value on the Dollar Index (DXY). The intrinsic value of the dollar can be determined by the level of real interest rates. Real interest rates are calculated by subtracting the rate of inflation from a country's "risk free" sovereign yield. Right now the level of real interest rates in the U.S. is a negative 1.55%.

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Commodities

Monday, November 24, 2014

The 2014 Crude Oil Price Crash Explained / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

This is an article by our good friend Euan Mearns at the University of Aberdeen. It was originally published here .

  • In February 2009 Phil Hart published on The Oil Drum a simple supply demand model that explained then the action in the oil price. In this post I update Phil’s model to July 2014 using monthly oil supply (crude+condensate) and price data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA).
  • This model explains how a drop in demand for oil of only 1 million barrels per day can account for the fall in price from $110 to below $80 per barrel.
  • The future price will be determined by demand, production capacity and OPEC production constraint. A further fall in demand of the order 1 Mbpd may see the price fall below $60. Conversely, at current demand, an OPEC production cut of the order 1 Mbpd may send the oil price back up towards $100. It seems that volatility has returned to the oil market.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, November 24, 2014

122 Tonnes of Gold Secretly Repatriated to Netherlands / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

The Dutch central bank said Friday it is repatriating some of its gold reserves from the U.S., making it the latest central bank in Europe to address public concerns about the safety of its gold in the wake of the eurozone debt crisis.

As the debate regarding whether or not Switzerland should keep the bulk of its gold reserves at home on Swiss soil reaches it's climax - the referendum takes place on Sunday - it is telling that the Dutch announced on Friday that they have just secretly repatriated 122 tonnes of their sovereign gold reserves from New York back to Amsterdam.

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Commodities

Monday, November 24, 2014

Gold, Silver, and Blue Dollars / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

“Whether the single medium is gold, silver, seashells, cattle, or tobacco is optional, depending on the context and development of a given economy. In fact, all have been employed, at various times, as media of exchange. Even in the present century, two major commodities, gold and silver, have been used as international media of exchange, with gold becoming the predominant one. Gold, having both artistic and functional uses and being relatively scarce, has significant advantages over all other media of exchange.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, November 24, 2014

Gold Golden Gains Come After The Pain / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Richard_Mills

HUI/Gold Ratio, National Inflation Association

When the HGR is rising, gold stocks are outperforming gold. Conversely when the HGR is falling, gold is outperforming gold stocks.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Why Crude Oil $80 Is the New Normal, Reasons Saudi Arabia Will Not “Swing” / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

Now the dust from the Shock & Awe of the 30% drop in oil prices has started to settle, two things are clear: (a) Saudi Arabia did not engineer anything (b) they don’t have a Machiavellian plan to stick one up the wildcatters in North Dakota, or the Russians...the Iranians...the Venezuelans, or even the genius from the Daily Telegraph who was bemoaning the fact that if oil prices go down it will be hard to import inflation into U.K.
Here are five good reasons why they are going to pass on the opportunity to slash their oil production by 30% so that other OPEC members can cheat and make a windfall, like they all did in 1987/8.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Who’s Ready For $30 Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

How low can and will oil prices go, and what will the effects of those prices be? I bet you’ll have a hard time finding even just two people who have the same opinion on that. Not that it’s merely a matter of opinion, mind you, there are a great number of real life factors that come into play. It’s not an easy game.

OPEC gets together next week, and it’s a cartel divided. Many if not most of its members are suffering some kind of losses at present prices, and the obvious choice seems to be to cut output in order to raise prices again. But that’s not easy either, because at lower prices they need more output, not less, to minimize the damage. Besides, is non-OPEC producers don’t cut their output, OPWC cuts may do very little to lift prices.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Sunday, November 23, 2014

The Swiss Gold Referendum - Cat Among The Pigeons / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Andrew_McKillop

November 30, 2014
On November 30, Swiss voters head to the polls on three separate questions: abolishing a flat tax on resident foreigners who do not work or presently pay income tax, a numbers-based cap on immigration, and a proposal to radically increase Swiss gold reserves and forbid the sale of reserves. Gold loans which would bring down the reserve total below th new target for reserves, sometime in 2019 would also be forbidden, but this is only implicid in the referendum question.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Gold Price 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: EWI

Greetings,

I just read a special report on a major market development you should be aware of, right now ......

A potentially BIG near- to intermediate-term opportunity in GOLD, a market no one else wants to talk about.

Though the authors of the report plan to officially release their findings to everyone in 24 hours, I have arranged for you to get an exclusive, early look at their report. Yes, they have agreed to embargo its release elsewhere for 24 hours so you can have the first look at it.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Is the Gold And Silver Golden Rule Broken? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Michael_Noonan

He who owns the gold rules.

That has been the clichéd "wisdom" for some time. However it appears Russia has become the Rodney Dangerfield of the Golden Rule, for it certainly is not getting any respect. To the contrary, the Golden Rule has become subservient to Military Rule, the last remaining leg upon which the US rests in its ongoing inability to retain respect internationally.

As formidable as US military might is, it is not always effective in execution, and to date, it has only been [in]effective against those nations that have no military might, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan. Syria is still a work in process, but the only reason why Syria has not been destroyed, like the other countries, is because Russia, Putin, stepped in to expose the Obomb-em administration and false flag "insurgent" gassing of citizens.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Investors Hated Gold at Precisely the Wrong Time: What About Now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: EWI

Sentiment extremes often foretell major turns in financial markets

Editor's note: You'll find the text version of the story below the video.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Bitcoin Price Moving to Below $350? / Commodities / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

In short: no speculative positions.

Mozilla has started accepting Bitcoin donations, we read on CoinDesk:

Mozilla, the open-source development community behind the popular Firefox web browser, is now accepting bitcoin donations.

The Mozilla Foundation, the non-profit entity that provides support for the community's broad open-source development, will be partnering with Coinbase to accept bitcoin contributions. The California-based bitcoin services provider announced the deal on its blog, where it reinforced that, per its policies toward charities, it will not charge fees for the donations it processes.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Gold and GLD ETF Selloff / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has suffered a rough couple of months, getting pounded below major support.  One driver was stock-market capital flowing out of gold again, as evidenced by renewed differential selling pressure seen in gold-ETF shares.  But this was minor compared to last year’s, despite extreme bearish sentiment plaguing gold.  Gold-ETF selling exhaustion has effectively been hit, paving the way for big rebound buying.

The dominant gold ETF remains the American SPDR Gold Shares, which trades as GLD.  This vehicle revolutionized gold trading for stock investors, creating a quick and efficient conduit for the vast pools of stock capital to migrate into and out of gold.  And since GLD just celebrated its 10th birthday this week, it’s a great time to take another look at it.  Starting from humble beginnings, GLD has matured into a gold juggernaut.

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Commodities

Friday, November 21, 2014

Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) Breaking Three Month Downtrend? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Jeb_Handwerger

For several weeks I have been expecting a major secular bottom in precious metals and the junior miner. I told you to watch for the accumulation after a shakeout. See the full article from several weeks ago by clicking on the following link.

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Commodities

Friday, November 21, 2014

Better Tone for Volatile Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Gold has had a volatile week, but rose from $1147 last Friday afternoon to a high of $1205 on Tuesday. On Wednesday the price moved between down $25 on the latest opinion poll on the Swiss referendum, then recovered to $23 before falling again on the release of the Fed's FOMC minutes. However, despite these unsettling swings gold rose on the week by about $30 overall, making it two weeks in a row as shown in our first chart.

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