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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Will Gold Price Break Out Once Again? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion no speculative positions are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective. Being on the long side of the precious metals market with half of the long-term investment capital seems justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Gold rallied once again yesterday and so did silver and mining stocks. The question is if the rally is about to pause or end, since mining stocks are not really outperforming gold and the USD Index has just confirmed the breakout above the 2005 high.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Gold and Silver Early Days / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jesse

After a morning smackdown gold was able to hold its level just below 1300, with silver showing a little more resilience.

Tomorrow we should hear the official word from the ECB, after the 'leak' today of over a trillion in QE per year.

The central banks of the West are 'plowing the oceans.'

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Is Gold Pro-cyclical or Anti-cyclical? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Is Gold Pro-cyclical or Anti-cyclical?

There are no two identical business cycles. Their courses depend on the many independent actions of market participants. Also, each time money flows and spreads out differently in the economy, affecting distinct prices in various ways. However, according to a general pattern, business cycles can be broken down into four stages, during which distinct assets classes, including gold, behave differently. To understand what may happen in the gold market during a possible recession, we have to examine how changes in the business cycle affect the performance of different asset classes.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Gold Price Reaches First Target – Potential Short-term Pull Back Now Possible / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: MarketsToday

As discussed in our last analysis on gold from January 4, a bearish AB=CD pattern was forming with a 100% D leg completion at 1,273.9. That price target was reached last Friday as gold hit a high of 1,282.11 for the week. Although not assured, a pullback is now possible. In addition to the ABCD completion, potential resistance can also be seen in this general price area from previous price structure (support and resistance). 

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Gold Price Model Says Gold Still Undervalued / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

Gold hit a price low of approximately $1,140 in early November 2014. Since then it has rallied dramatically, possibly because of global fears about the financial system, the Swiss National Bank removing its peg to the Euro, more QE, escalating war in the Ukraine, or simply that gold prices were over-extended and ready to rally.

In my opinion gold reached an important low in November, and in spite of a rising dollar, has rallied since then in dollar terms, and even more in most other fiat currencies.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Gold Demand Explodes as Volatility and Fear Stalk Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

Although the extent to which the surprise move by the Swiss National Bank last week has damaged financial institutions will not be apparent until the end of the month, it is already clear that enormous damage has been wreaked on many businesses exposed to the foreign exchange markets.

GoldCore has seen significant increase in gold demand from investors in the first weeks of January 2015 as compared to the same period in 2014. Gold bullion volume amongst buyers was 3 (365%) times level last year, with particular emphasis being placed on safe secure storage vaults in Zurich and Hong Kong and Singapore.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Is Market Sentiment Shifting to Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: The_Gold_Report

Equities past their peak? Bond market dead? So where do investors go looking for returns? Eric Coffin suggests gold, both bullion and stocks. In this interview with The Gold Report, the publisher of Hard Rock Analyst explains how changes in the currency and energy markets have reignited interest in the sector, and suggests five gold explorers, plus one each in copper and uranium, poised to profit from the new economic realities.

The Gold Report: Quite a few analysts believe 2015 will be a year of great economic volatility, as foreshadowed by what happened with oil in 2014. Do you agree?

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Commodities

Monday, January 19, 2015

Gold Bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

Nothing has been done to address the structural inadequecies and distortions that lead to the 2008 financial crisis - instead our leaders have resorted to the procrastination made possible by turning to drugs, specifically Quantitative Easing, which has enabled them to clamp interest rates at 0 to prevent the already unserviceable debt load from compounding out of sight. Spearheaded by the US, this money printing policy has now become standard practice around the world, with Europe and Japan following suit in a big way. The notion put about that all this newly printed money can somehow be contained within banks is nonsense as demonstrated by the soaring prices of stockmarkets in developing markets until recently and in various asset bubbles like the boiling London and New York Real Estate markets.

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Commodities

Monday, January 19, 2015

Bundesbank Announces Repatriation of 120 Tonnes of Gold from Paris and New York Federal Reserve / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

The Bundesbank, Germany’s powerful central bank, announced very publicly this morning the further repatriation of some of it’s gold being held in foreign locations – namely in Paris and New York with the Bank of France and the Federal Reserve.

“The Bundesbank successfully continued and further stepped up its transfers of gold,” the central bank said in a statement. “Implementation of our new gold storage plan is proceeding smoothly. Operations are running very much according to schedule,” said Carl-Ludwig Thiele, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank.

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Commodities

Monday, January 19, 2015

U.S. Dollar’s Major Breakout and Gold’s Simultaneous Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion no speculative positions are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective. Being on the long side of the precious metals market with half of the long-term investment capital seems justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Gold soared on Friday once again and so did the USD Index. It was yet another day of the two rallying together, which is a very bullish development. What’s next?

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Commodities

Monday, January 19, 2015

Bottom Line Thoughts on the Gold Sector / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

Improving Macro Backdrop

In light of a shifting global macro backdrop that we can finally sink our teeth into with respect to a bullish orientation on the gold stock sector, I thought it might be a good idea to publicly post some bottom line thoughts from this week's NFTRH report.

The report went into great detail to explain why more fundamentals that matter are starting to come in line, after the chart below refused to make a signal against our big picture view of global economic contraction, which has been the biggest key for the counter-cyclical gold mining sector.

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Commodities

Monday, January 19, 2015

Silver Price Breaks Out on Swiss France Euro Decoupling / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

Silver broke out from a Head-and-Shoulders bottom on Friday, a day after gold did the same following the news that the Swiss Franc is to be decoupled from the euro. In the face of the impending QE tsunami in Europe, the Swiss have decided to call it a day and give up supporting the euro peg and retreat to the relative safety of the mountains, where at least they will have a plentiful supply of their high quality cheese and chocolate, as foreigners are less able to buy it. The reason that gold and silver broke higher is that the Swiss move is an unwelcome reminder of the ongoing and intensifying global currency war, characterized by competitive devaluation and bouts of QE. When there is more and more money and it buys less and less, gold and silver must go up in price - that's not too difficult to understand, is it??

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Commodities

Monday, January 19, 2015

Gold, Flights to Quality / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Alasdair_Macleod

It is pleasing to see precious metals in favour as 2015 gets underway in earnest. Whilst ‘quality’ might be a subjective term, it seems to have been applied, in my opinion quite rightly, to gold, silver, platinum and palladium by investors looking to protect themselves from a start-of-the-year volatility storm in other asset classes. In the wider commodity world, oil and copper prices are still languishing whilst precious metals have shown their value to investors as a stand-alone and increasingly non-correlated asset class.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 18, 2015

Gold Sheep Sheared / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Austin_Galt

Baa, baa. That's the sound of the sheep that follow the crowd spouting bunkum that gold can't go up if the US dollar goes up as well. This fallacy has been shown over the past couple of months for what it is - complete nonsense.

Both gold and the US dollar have surged in tandem the past couple of months. This is why I like to analyse each instrument on its own merits and not let my judgement of one be clouded by my view of another. This is often easier said than done mind you.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Gold And Silver – Swiss National Bank Rally. Enough For A Change? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

It would seem that last week’s rally in gold was Swiss National Bank-driven, plain and simple. It is difficult to get a handle on the ramifications of what just happened with the Swiss “unpegging” from the Euro. It was becoming prohibitively expensive for the SNB to keep buying Euros and trashing their own economy in the process. Ostensibly, this is a tale of a central bank telling the US and the rest of the EU, enough! We have had it, and we are now going to be more fiscally responsible.

Right. Just after opting not to have the Swiss franc backed proportionately by gold, a move that would have been an act of fiscal responsibility. If there is one constant about world-wide central bankers, it is that they lie on an ongoing basis. The truth, if it ever comes out, may not become apparent for the next several months. It makes no sense for one part of the central banking cabal to pull a “surprise attack” on the rest of the group.

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