Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, December 26, 2008
Gold Secular Bull Market Investing Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Gold belongs in every investor's portfolio. It is totally unique among financial assets, a physical metal commanding timeless and universal intrinsic value. It is a rock of stability in a chaotic world, a stark contrast to the complex web of mere promises to pay that is our modern faith-based financial system. Without gold, true diversification and protection from systemic risk is impossible.
Gold's fundamentals are dazzlingly bullish. Like everything else on the planet that is freely bought and sold, gold's price today and in the future is a direct function of its supply and demand. As long as its global demand exceeds its global supply on balance, gold's price will continue powering higher in its secular bull. While it has already come far from its humble beginnings in the $250s in April 2001, it has a long way to run yet.
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Friday, December 26, 2008
Silver and Gold More Than Just A Christmas Carol / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Silver and gold, silver and gold
Ev’ryone wishes for silver and gold
How do you measure its worth?
Just by the pleasure it gives here on earth
... or so goes the well-known Christmas carol you've probably heard several times already during this holiday season. But aside from the decorations in your home and office, how much gold do you actually own right now in your portfolio?
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Friday, December 26, 2008
Insolvent Financial System Signals Much Higher Gold Price / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Many people are very confused these days. They should be. Slowly the nation is coming to grips with a harsh reality that a garden variety recession has not dug its roots inside the body economic of the United States. This is much worse. This is an economic and financial system horribly plagued by insolvency, with vicious cycles causing severe momentum in the damage, where the entire system is facing potential ruin in a disintegration sequence during a virtually unstoppable liquidation process.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Uranium Investing- Analysts Forgot Yellow Cake / Commodities / Uranium
Nicholas Jones writes: The financial analytical business is one of comic and irony. During prospering economic times, the aggregate success of financial analysts' ability to make their clients money is very high on a percentage basis.
When the economic worm turns, the field of financial analysis turns into this sort of absurd puppet show. It's really a simple notion. It's just easier to make money in bull markets.
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Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Gold Trends Lower as Financial Markets Shutdown for Christmas / Commodities / Gold & Silver
SPOT GOLD slipped into London's long Christmas break on Wednesday but held inside a tight range, dropping $5 an ounce at the AM Gold Fix of $836.75 as world stock markets also fell in thin holiday trade.The London Bullion market – center of the world's wholesale dealing – is now closed until Monday 29th Dec. European stock markets, like New York, close at lunchtime.
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Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Jay Taylor: Time to Start Hoarding Gold Mining Stocks? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
The world's economic woes may be far from over, but deflation or inflation, gold is as good as it gets, according to Jay Taylor. Jay, whose passion for the king of metals prompted him to pursue geological studies after earning his MBA in finance and investments, has established an enviable track record in the markets. According to webeatthestreet.com, “J. Taylor's Gold & Technology Stocks Model Portfolio has more than tripled its value since January 2000 while the S&P 500 has barely moved.”Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Will Lower Gold Impede Crude Oil's Turnaround? / Commodities / Crude Oil
One of our subscribers asked today that if we think the US Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO) is going higher, then wouldn't that be bullish for gold, if only temporarily? And vice-versa: If the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) is headed lower, as we are seeing (today), would not that take the USO down also?Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Silver Price Forecast 2009 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Although silver's gains on the recent dollar plunge were relatively modest they were nevertheless technically very significant as they have resulted in it staging a clear breakout from the severe downtrend in force from July, and have thus set the stage for much greater gains in the future. Before going further it should be stated that much of what has been written and highlighted in the Gold Market update applies equally well to silver, and silver investors should therefore refer to the latest Gold Market update for this infortmation.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Gold and Silver Forecast 2009 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Gold Outperformed Most Assets in 2008 - Gold Up 3.9% in USD; Up 5.3% in EUR and Up 34.4% in GBPToday’s London AM fix (23/12/08) was $844.01 (USD), £570.85 (GBP) and €603.72 (EUR). At the start of 2008 ( January 2nd 2008), gold’s London AM Fix was at $840.75 (USD), £424.81 (GBP) and €573.34 (EUR).
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Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Gold Could Take-off During 2009 as Governments Print Money / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Gold Holds Tight as Financial Crisis Claims Belgium Government; "Could Flourish" in 2009 on Negative Real Rates & Money Printing
THE SPOT PRICE of gold held in a tight $5 range early in London on Tuesday, recording an AM Fix of $844 an ounce as European stock markets bounced from yesterday's sharp losses and crude oil ticked back below $39 per barrel.
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Monday, December 22, 2008
IEA Study: Global Energy Supplies Remain a Concern / Commodities / Crude Oil
The International Energy Agency (IEA) published a study last month that repeated their warning that excessively low energy prices will discourage investment in exploration and production in light of the steadily rising costs of extracting and processing oil from increasingly difficult places. The lack of sufficient investment has serious implications for future energy supplies once the global economy recovers from its current descent according to the IEA.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 22, 2008
Crude Oil Price Deflation Most Oversold Since the Great Depression / Commodities / Crude Oil
Most financial commentators, even the well-known and respected ones, just don't get it. They don't understand what's happening in macro-conditions because they fail to accept the understanding that sentiment, as measured by speculator betting practices in the various options markets populating the landscape, is the single most important driver of prices in our mature fiat currency based financial markets. What this means is no matter how much money and bailouts our bureaucracy sponsors, until the collect mind changes, as measured by rising open interest put / call ratios on the major US indexes, meaning the speculators are becoming more pessimistic, in general, prices will keep falling. Of course this can change, and corrections (higher at present) will occur, however if you are waiting for unbridled monetary and fiscal largesse to result in hyperinflation with declining numbers of bearish equity market speculators to squeeze, you are likely in for a disappointment.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 22, 2008
Gold the Investment for 2009 Amidst Global Economic Crisis and Competitive Currency Devaluations / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Gold rose 2% last week (and silver 6%) for the third week of rising prices. Continuing safe haven demand for gold seems to be driving the market as gold has rallied again at the start of this week with the dollar only slightly lower and oil prices only slightly higher.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 22, 2008
Inflation or Deflation, Look to Gold for the Answer / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Our world is becoming ever more a dangerous place to live. Now, our own president cannot carry out his duty without having to swerve to avoid a thrown shoe. But, wow, did it leave his hair disheveled. Needs a haircut anyway. Too long and shaggy. George, look out for those thrown shoes! But what about that debate over who will take precedence…deflation or inflation?Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Gold Backwardation Forward Thinking / Commodities / Gold & Silver
In an earlier article Backward Thinking on Backwardation I explained that backwardation in gold is the flipside of the phenomenon of a drastic contraction of world trade and employment. This brings out the danger in denying the fact of gold backwardation or to belittle its significance, as most observers seem to be doing. I am reminded of the saying of the Swiss educator F.W. Foerster: "if you don't use your eyes for seeing, later you will use them for weeping." In this article I want to enumerate the reasons why I believe that permanent backwardation in gold would bring about the descent of our civilization into lawlessness similar to that following the collapse of the Western Roman Empire.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Gold's Inverse Relationship to the U.S. Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver
As the U.S. $ Index and the price of gold bullion seem to be moving in opposite directions one wonders once more who is leading and who is following (albeit in opposite direction)? More importantly, where is each going?Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Physical Silver- Where is it? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
I received a phone call from Tarek Saab, a former finalist on Donald Trump's television show, The Apprentice . At first I was a bit suspicious because, believe it or not, there are a few flakes floating around the gold and silver arena, and having someone claim to be associated with The Donald did send up warning flags. I must state, however, that perhaps to an outsider, all gold and silver bugs probably seem nuts!Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 20, 2008
The Future of Silver- TELEPATHIC interview with Adam Smith / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Robert Singer, recently proclaimed a Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) interviews Adam Smith, telepathically. I got out my new Matrix Mind-ray Scanner, delivered before The Sharper Image and our way of life filed for bankruptcy and Googled “who is the founding father of economics”. Results: Richard Cantillon, Alexander Hamilton and Adam Smith. I never heard of Cantillion and Hamilton is the father of Crony Capitalism. I selected Adam Smith and set the device on “Interview” and typedRead full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
David Morgan: Spring May Bring Silver “Obama Rally” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Typical pre-teen boys may be as committed to collecting coins as they are baseball cards, but to find 11-year-olds intrigued by the M1 money supply, fiat currency and the silver standard would be a rarity by anyone’s standards. David Morgan, whose interest in silver dates to that tender age, was one of the rare ones—and still is. Although his horizon has expanded considerably since those days, he now stands out among the world’s preeminent silver authorities, investment experts and worldview economists.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
Massive U.S. Dollar Devaluation Against Gold During 2009 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
The Federal Reserve estimates that in the past year losses in real estate, stocks and mortgages have sucked out some $7.2 trillion of wealth from the U.S. economy. Some are now putting the figure at $20 trillion. A massive recession is starting and will likely spread throughout much of the world. These forces have exerted their classic strong downward pressure on the price of gold.Read full article... Read full article...