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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Plunger’s Gold Bottom Watch / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Plunger

That’s where it appears we are now, the final drive to the bottom. Rambus’ weekend charts still show how bearish the PM charts are and it will take a lot of work to turn them around and get them pointed back up, Having said that I see the initial components we should expect to see of a bottom and turn entering into the picture. Call these pathway elements as they come before the bottom and take a bit of time to have their effect of bringing about the turn. First off what will propel the next bull leg in the PM stocks is the investment case for metal stocks. That is primary defined by the real price of gold and input costs into mines, That has been improving for over one year now. Mainly driven by the oil price, which imputes itself into all costs of a mining operation. Cheaper oil impacts not just extraction cost but costs of materials, explosives, those big expensive truck tires etc. Plus communities and governments are warming up to mining projects. Ecuador is a case in point, since oil revenue is down they need taxes from other sources and the mining sector is becoming favored again. Here is a view of the gold/oil relationship, note how the trend (30 EMA) is higher.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Gold Price Falls Through Key Technical Support, Must Hold Above $1,072 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jason_Hamlin

It has been a rough few weeks for gold investors, as the price has experienced a waterfall decline of over $100. First, the price dropped through key support at both the 200-day and 100-day moving averages. Then it proceeded to violate the uptrend (green line) that has been in place since July and support at the September low of $1,097.

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Commodities

Monday, November 09, 2015

Gold Price Breakdown Could Result in Slide to $800 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

The predictions made in the recent past for the dollar to rally and gold and silver to drop have proven to be correct. Gold has now dropped for 8 days in a row as we can see on its 3-month chart below, which common sense dictates is increasing the chances of a bounce soon, especially as Commercial short positions eased significantly last week and gold is arriving at a support level in an oversold condition. Gold is oversold relative to its moving averages, which are in bearish alignment.

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Commodities

Monday, November 09, 2015

Silver Price Forecast Plunge to as Low as $10 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

The last update posted on 18th October called a top in silver, and that is what it turned out to be. On its 3-month chart we can see that silver broke down from a small Head-and-Shoulders top at the end of October and then went into a steady day after day decline with the result that it has dropped now for 7 trading days in a row. While it could drop further towards or to the support shown, it is getting short-term oversold and is increasingly likely to bounce soon. As with gold this weakness was triggered by dollar strength, with the dollar rising sharply on Friday in response to a stronger than expected jobs report which the market thinks makes an interest rate rise more likely.

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Commodities

Monday, November 09, 2015

China’s Central Bank Buys Another 14 Tons of Gold … Bullion Falls To 3 Month Low / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

- PBOC declared gold reserves now about 55.38 million troy ounces or 1,722.5 metric tonnes

- Central bank gold rose to $63.26 billion by end-month – less than 2% of $3.53 trillion FX reserves

- China disclosed on July 17th that its gold holdings had surged 57% since 2009

- China officially owns around 1,720 tonnes of gold  –  true total figure likely much larger

- China’s total gold holdings much higher as also owns gold in CIC

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Commodities

Monday, November 09, 2015

The Big Silver ETF - Silver and Physical Inventory Part 2 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

In a follow up to last week's excerpt from out recent Q&A with Ted Bulter, questions were asked warehouse movement in other commodities and about the big ETF...

Are you seeing the frantic movement of metal in other commodities markets?

Do you believe the ETF’s are actually backed by physical metal?

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Commodities

Saturday, November 07, 2015

Gold and Silver Precious Metals Sector Due for Bounce, but… / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The precious metals sector has declined sharply in recent weeks with no pause or intermittent breaks in the decline. Including today, Gold is down eight consecutive days and 16 of the past 18 days. The gold miners (GDX) have lost roughly 20% in the past seven days. The sector is extremely oversold in the short term and a reflex rally culd begin in the next few days. While Gold and gold bugs should get temporary relief, the larger picture remains quite bearish.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 07, 2015

Shorts Savage Gold After Fed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has enjoyed a strong new uptrend in recent months following last summer’s extreme gold-futures shorting attack.  But speculators returned with a vengeance this past week, aggressively dumping gold futures again following a hawkish surprise by the Fed.  The resulting gold plunge shattered its support, and thrust sentiment back into hyper-bearish territory.  But gold-futures shorting soon reverses to big buying.

In recent years the gold-futures trading by American speculators has utterly dominated the gold price.  With investors still missing in action thanks to the Fed’s astounding stock-market levitation, speculators’ reign is unchallenged.  Gold is not only at the mercy of their mercurial sentiment, the leveraged nature of futures speculation grants their collective trades an outsized impact on gold’s price.  They rule the roost today.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 07, 2015

Gold And Silver - Deception, Not Fundamentals Rule Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

There are two things we know for certain about gold and silver: 1. Fundamentals do not apply [currently], and 2. There are no signs to indicate an end to this half-decade old bear market.

There have been many calls for a turnaround in gold and silver since 2013. In fact, the calls were not just for a turnaround, but also calls for $10,000+ gold, and $400+ silver, starting in 2014. It became apparent to us in the first half of 2014 that it would end with a whimper, just as 2013 did, and as 2014 continued, it seemed equally as likely that 2015 may not fare much better, and it not only did not, but it got worse with lower prices and the prospects for still lower prices to come. This puts the first part of 2016 in question.

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Commodities

Friday, November 06, 2015

Does Bond Market Drive the Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Many gold market analysts focus on irrelevant, but catchy factors, such as mining production or jewelry demand. Others think gold is a simple inflation or stock market hedge. It is a bit strange that the relationship between the bond and gold markets is not commonly examined, given that bond market is much bigger than stock market, while real interest rates are one of the main drivers of the price of gold. The negative relationship between gold and interest rates imply positive correlations with bond prices, since the price of bonds is negatively related to the yields they offer.

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Commodities

Friday, November 06, 2015

Oil Megaprojects Won't Stay On The Shelf For Long / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

One casualty of the oil price downturn could be the megaproject.

For years, as conventional oil reserves depleted and became increasingly hard to find, oil companies ventured into far-flung locales to find new sources of production. Extracting oil from these frontier areas required more advanced technology and a lot more capital: Ultra deepwater, Arctic offshore, heavy oil sands, and increasingly, the Lower Tertiary.

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Commodities

Friday, November 06, 2015

Silver Prices and Options Expiration / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Notes on what we covered…

  • Review of the where we are in the series
  • What are options?
  • Life options versus financial options
  • Options and derivatives
  • Who writes the majority of options?
  • Options Leverage
  • OTC options
  • Incentive for expiring out of the money and their influence on price.
  • The set up for silver price volatility around options expiration
  • Commercial shorts versus managed money traders.
  • Being prepared for options expiration, and what you can do.
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Commodities

Thursday, November 05, 2015

Crude Oil Price More Weakness In Sight / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gregor_Horvat

Crude oil has turned up in September when price broke out of a triangle placed in wave (b) so wave (c) was final with wave 4 pullback that reached 50.50 resistance from where sell-off occurred in October. As such, we suspect that WTI made a new swing now that will send price down into wave 5 back to 37.70. Broken corrective channel also suggests more weakness ahead,but after wave (ii) is complete.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 05, 2015

The Discipline of Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

Consider these round number costs in digital (dishonest) dollars:

1,000 ounce Silver Bar                                                                   $17,000

or         Hillary Clinton speech                                              $300,000

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Commodities

Thursday, November 05, 2015

Gold Showing Signs of Final Degree Bloodbath Phase / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Savage

While everyone is getting more and more bearish gold is showing all the signs of being in a final intermediate degree bloodbath phase. Notice the similar 5-7 day capitulation to the last 4 ICL's. Notice the extreme oversold oscillators indicative of a major intermediate degree bottom approaching.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 05, 2015

Day Follows Night : Gold Follows US Bonds / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dan_Norcini

For the same reason as the Euro was sharply lower today, so was gold, namely, a hawkish Yellen testimony in which see used the words, "living possibility" when referring to a potential December rate hike.

With interest rates moving higher on the Ten Year Treasury once more today, ( at 2.23% as I type this), gold simply cannot compete with better returns on interest bearing assets such as notes and bonds as it casts off no yield whatsoever and depends completely on capital gains to produce any sort of increase for its owners.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 04, 2015

Don’t Trust Gold Here / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Bob_Loukas

Just when the short-term prospects for Gold were looking good, precious metals reversed lower this past week. It could be that Gold was surprised by last week’s FOMC minutes, which signaled a potential December rate hike. When the minutes were released, Gold dropped immediately, and it’s been straight downhill for the metals since.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 04, 2015

Gold Price Cycle Low Friday Morning With U.S. Employment Report / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Savage

The most likely timing band for the daily cycle to bottom is on the employment report Friday morning. There should be a short term tradable rally even if its's only for 4-8 days as gold should try to break the cycle down trend line. Stay patient for a few more days. Wait for gold to form a swing low before trying to buy.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 04, 2015

Marc Faber “Great Optimist” Says “I Added To My Gold Position” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

Marc Faber, Swiss economist, forecaster, renowned investor and the original Dr. Doom, may need a new nickname.

In an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation,” the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report editor revealed he may not be as bearish as some may think and that he is actually a “great optimist.”

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 03, 2015

Hedging HAL With Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_J_Kosares

In the month of October, there were thirteen two hour blocks during which gold traded in a range greater than $10 – not an alarming price range to be sure, but collectively, these high activity moments represent the most volatile trading periods for the gold price all month – by far.  What’s more interesting is that a whopping ten of the thirteen occurred well within the first hour of trading on the COMEX (6AM MST), frequently on little to no news of any consequence, at a time when most normal people are barely making their way to the coffee machine.  By contrast, only three occurred later in the trading day – the first corresponded with the release of the Fed Minutes (Oct 8), the second with an important numbers miss, and the third the release of the Fed policy statement (Oct 28) – in other words, during times when price volatility was justified, reasonable, and expected.  Welcome to the world of algorithmic trading – the new normal for all financial markets.

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