Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Saturday, January 12, 2019
Big Silver Move Foreshadowed as Industrial Panic Looms / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up we’ll hear one of the more important interviews we’ve ever done on the broken nature of the precious metals’ futures exchanges, and what might be the driving force that ultimately destroys the confidence in these markets, paving the way to true price discovery. Mining analyst and precious metals expert David Jensen joins me to talk about how palladium might just be the straw that breaks the back of the paper market. Don’t miss this must-hear interview, coming up after this week’s market update.
As the government shutdown persists, and a declaration of national emergency by President Donald Trump looms, financial markets are unfazed. The Dow Jones Industrials have swung approximately 500 points higher so far this week.
However, the U.S. Dollar Index did hit a 3-month low on Wednesday. That helped boost oil prices in a big way. Crude climbed 10% to $53 a barrel.
The price action in precious metal markets is more subdued. Gold shows a modest gain of 0.4% this week to bring spot prices to $1,291 per ounce. The yellow metal flirted with the $1,300 level last Friday. More backing and filling may be needed before the market is ready to push through that resistance.
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Saturday, January 12, 2019
Gold GDXJ Upside Bests GDX / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
Gold miners’ exchange-traded funds are surging with gold powering higher. These mounting gains are naturally fueling growing interest in the leading gold-stock investment vehicles. Traders looking to deploy capital are wondering which major gold-stock ETF is superior, offering the best balance between upside potential, component fundamentals, and risks. GDXJ takes the crown, besting its larger big brother GDX.
By my count, there are currently 14 gold miners ETFs trading in US markets. But that’s not authoritative, as the broader ETF industry is constantly in flux. These gold-stock ETFs collectively held $17.5b in net assets as of the middle of this week. And two major ETFs utterly dominated, commanding fully 85.1% of all those gold-stock investments! They are of course GDX and GDXJ, which dwarf everything else in this sector.
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Friday, January 11, 2019
Is It Time To Prepare For The Precious Metals To Get Whacked? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
This article was originally published on Sun Jan 6 for members of ElliottWaveTrader: Over the last several weeks, I have seen those that were absolutely certain back in September and October that gold was going to drop below $1,000 now turn into major bulls in the metals complex. The silver rally especially has gotten the attention of many metal’s traders, and has everyone now all bulled up for a major break out in the complex.
It really is amazing to watch how price extremes dictate the manner in which investor’s views are driven about a market. Yet, as Roy Prassad, one of our more astute members at Elliottwavetrader.net, noted: “the goal of Elliott Wave is to analyze sentiment, not participate in it.”
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Thursday, January 10, 2019
Will Powell’s Put Support Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
Fed signals more patience with its monetary tightening, despite strong economy. Why? And what does it mean for the gold market?
Minutes from December FOMC Meeting and Gold
As everybody knows, in December the FOMC voted unanimously to raise interest rates for the fourth time in 2018. We have analyzed the implications of that hike for gold in two editions of the Gold News Monitor (here and here).
However, yesterday, the Fed published the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting. The document shows that despite the apparent unanimity, the tensions were growing, as a “few” officials were actually arguing for the central bank to pause:
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Thursday, January 10, 2019
Gold Mine Production by Country / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
Gold mine production by country Divergent paths among the major global producers tell an important tale
Read full article... Read full article...Sources: MetalsFocus and the World Gold Council with permission.
Thursday, January 10, 2019
Silver Price Trend Forecast Target for 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
My long standing approach to Silver is one of buying when cheap to invest and forget, for it only tends to come alive towards the end of precious metals bull runs as illustrated the last time I took a look at Silver on the 8th of May 2018 -
Silver Forecast 2018 and Beyond, Investing for the $35+ Price Spike!
In terms of a Silver market position then as is currently the case the silver market can usually be expected to be a dead market with the tendency to flat line not just for many months but even years as it tends to play second fiddle to Gold in terms of tradable swings, usually only really coming alive towards the latter stages of precious metal bull markets.
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Wednesday, January 09, 2019
Silver Price Trend Forecast 2019 / Commodities / Global Debt Crisis 2019
This is the 4th and final article in this series that concludes in a trend forecast for the Silver price 2019.
- Silver Price Trend Forecast 2018 Review
- Gold - Silver Ratio
- Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019
- Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion for 2019
The whole of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Tuesday, January 08, 2019
Did Strong December Payrolls Push Gold Prices Up? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
December payrolls were strong – but gold prices rose. What happened?
Job Creation Surprises Positively
U.S. nonfarm payrolls accelerated in December, beating expectations. The economy added 312,000 jobs last month, following a rise of 176,000 in November (after an upward revision) and significantly above 182,000 forecasted by the economists. The number was the biggest increase since February 2018. On an annual basis, the pace of job creation increased slightly last month to 1.8 percent.
What is important is that the gains were widespread, but the most impressive expansion occurred in education and health services (+82,000), leisure and hospitality (+55,000) and professional and business services (+43,000).
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Tuesday, January 08, 2019
Gold Hits Our $1300 Price Target – What Next? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
Early trading on January 4, 2019, saw Gold reach just above $1300 per ounce – confirming our price target from our research and posts on November 24, 2018. The importance of this move cannot be under-estimated. Traders and investors need to understand the recent rally in the metals markets are attempting to alert us that FEAR is starting to re-enter the market and that 2019 could start the year off with some extended volatility.
Our research has shown that Gold will likely rotate between $1270~1315 over the next 30~60 days before attempting to begin another rally. Our next upside price target is near $1500. We will continue to post articles to help everyone understand when and how this move will happen. We expect Gold to rotate near the $1300 level for at least another 30 days before attempting another price rally.
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Monday, January 07, 2019
Will the Momentum in Precious Metals Continue? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
The precious metals complex has enjoyed a nice run in recent months.
GDX has gained 25% since the September lows while GDXJ has gained 22% since its November low. Gold has rallied over $100/oz since its October low and Silver has surged in recent weeks.
The Gold community is getting excited again. They think the equity market is doomed and Gold has started a real bull run. That may be true but in the interim there are questions on the sustainability of recent strength.
Below we plot GDX with its advance decline (A/D) line and its RSI indicator. We already know that the A/D line has been carrying a few negative divergences.
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Monday, January 07, 2019
Gold Golden Long-Term Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
As global jitters are escalating with economic uncertainty and market volatility, gold looks more attractive. But there’s a big difference between its short- and longer-term prospects.
Those analysts who believe that fear has made a comeback argue that gold is benefiting as equities slide and investors are increasingly concerned about the economic prospects of the U.S., China, Europe and Japan. Yet, even at $1,290, gold still remains more than 30% behind its all-time high of $1,898 in September 2011 amid the U.S. debt-limit crisis.
Although U.S. dollar has not strengthened as much as anticipated, the Fed’s rising rates have contributed to the fall in gold prices. In this view, a reversal may be unlikely because the investor assumption is that the Fed will continue to normalize, though perhaps slower than anticipated.
In the postwar era, such tightening meant a strengthening U.S. economy and a stronger dollar. But at the time, American economy was not haunted by budget and trade deficits or a debt burden. Today, it suffers from both twin deficits and a massive $22 trillion sovereign debt burden.
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Monday, January 07, 2019
Natural Gas Through our $3.20 Target – What Next? / Commodities / Natural Gas
Our research team has been nailing the markets moves with our proprietary price modeling tools. Our December 12, 2018 call that Natural Gas would collapse nearly 30% after reaching a price peak was a very bold call. Who would have thought that predictive price modeling could be so accurate and could identify a move like this – or call for what is expected to happen next?
Back when Natural Gas breached the $4.60~4.80 range, our ADL predictive modeling system was suggesting a massive price anomaly was setting up. These types of triggers are becoming more common as volatility in the general markets increases. The ADL system suggested that a massive -30% downside price move would happen before the end of February 2019.
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Sunday, January 06, 2019
Gold Stocks Upleg Breaking Out / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
The gold stocks’ young upleg is really growing, on a trajectory to become major. This contrarian sector is breaking out to the upside on multiple fronts technically, which is really improving sentiment. Traders’ extreme bearishness of late summer has mostly abated, with bullish shoots taking root. Fundamentals certainly justify the mounting gold-stock buying, with earnings set to surge on higher gold prices in coming quarters.
This baby new year should prove far happier for gold stocks than 2018. This sector’s performance is measured by the share price of the flagship gold-stock investment vehicle, which is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. This week it held shares worth $10.5b in 46 major and mid-tier gold and silver miners from around the world. GDX is now 60.1x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!
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Saturday, January 05, 2019
Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
This is the 3rd video in a series of 4 that concludes in a trend forecast for the Silver price 2019.
- Silver Price Trend Forecast 2018 Review
- Gold - Silver Ratio
- Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019
- Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion for 2019
Saturday, January 05, 2019
Gold At 6 Month High $1,300 and All Time Record Highs In Australian Dollars / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
– Gold over 6-month high at $1,300 on global slowdown fears
– Bullion surges 5% in December and consolidates on gains this week
– Gold surges to all time record highs in Australian dollars ($1,871)
– Safe haven demand for safe havens as risk assets sold
– Apple’s poor outlook sees stocks fall; Markets now wagering on Fed rate cut
– “2019 is already getting off to a volatile start and we expect to see the political and economic uncertainty of 2018 continue and deepen,” GoldCore told Bloomberg News
Friday, January 04, 2019
Oil Is At The Mercy Of Financial Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
Oil prices regained more ground on Wednesday, pushed higher after equity markets rebounded from an initial selloff at the start of 2019 trading.
The price gains are not entirely convincing. WTI and Brent posted strong gains, each up more than 3 percent by midday in New York, but come largely after U.S. equity markets shook off an earlier bout of pessimism.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
Will the Futures Markets Save Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
The extreme bearish CoT positions necessarily imply the turning point in the gold market. Myth or fact? We invite you to read our today’s article about Comex positioning and find out whether futures will save gold.
Usually, the Comex is seen by precious metals investors as the main public enemy. After all, it’s a marketplace for all these short futures which allegedly suppress the gold prices. But now, the gold permabulls use the CoT report as an bullish argument in the discussion on the future of gold.
Why? Let’s look at the chart below. As you can see, the speculators (non-commercials) maintain very small long position, while the commercial traders are unusually close to being neutral. Although both groups have moderated their bets recently, their positioning is still extreme.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
The Men Who Stare at Charts: Decades of Disinflation & 7 Years Post-Op Twist / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
I was going to look around to see if I could find a media article out there (complete with a TA trying to sound really important) that would be appropriate to be made fun of in our little Men Who Stare at Charts series. But then I decided to create my own chart, stare at it a little, post it and talk about it (hopefully not too self-importantly).
Introducing an all too busy long-term (monthly) view of the Gold/Silver ratio, along with some key nominal markets.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
This is the 3rd article in a series of 4 articles that concludes in a trend forecast for the Silver price 2019.
- Silver Price Trend Forecast 2018 Review
- Gold - Silver Ratio
- Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019
- Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion for 2019
The whole of this analysis was first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
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Thursday, January 03, 2019
Gold Hedges Stock Market Falls In 2018 – Gains 2.7% In Euros and 3.8% In Pounds / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
– Gold acts as hedge in 2018 – up 2.7% and 3.8% in euros and pounds (see tables & charts)
– Stocks fall sharply – S&P500, FTSE & Euro Stoxx 5o fall 6.25%, 12.5% & 15% respectively
– Worst year for most international equity indices since 2008
– Sharp falls in economically sensitive commodities: oil (WTI), gasoline and lumber down 24.2%, 27% & 23.8% respectively
– Volatility surges as seen in VIX rising over 110%
– Volatility continues in 2019 as stocks globally fall with Apple falling 8% overnight
– Gold and silver likely to outperform risk assets again in 2019 (see Outlook 2019 Podcast)