Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, March 27, 2018
When Two Are Fighting, Gold Wins / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Do you hear the military march? The world’s largest economies are flexing their muscles and preparing for war. Will gold win the trade conflict between the United States and China?
So It Begins
Trade war. This topic dominated the recent days. Last week, President Trump announced plans for tariffs on about $60 billion of Chinese imports. In response, Liu He, China’s vice-prime minister, told Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Treasury Secretary, that China is ready to defend its interests. Indeed, on Friday the country announced plans to impose tariffs on about $3 billion of U.S. imports. So are we at war?
Tuesday, March 27, 2018
GOLD - GATA IS AT IT AGAIN / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
A new phrase has been added to our lexicon of late, and that is what has become known as "fake news." This new phraseology can be aptly applied to that which is presented by our old friends at the GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action) committee.
GATA has been trying to convince all those who are willing to listen that it is not its fault that the metals market dropped from 2011 to 2015 (where silver lost 75% of its value). Rather than admitting that it was not able to foresee a standard market correction -- which I warned about before it happened -- it has been focusing on that big bad scapegoat named "manipulation." And, it takes bits and pieces of what people say in order to "prove" its point.
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Physical Gold Production May Be Peaking, But There Is No Shortage In Paper Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Gold production numbers for 2017 are still being compiled but estimates call for the first annual decline in mine output since 2008.The gold price fell dramatically in the months following the 2011 peak in prices. It has languished at, or near, the cost of production for years. Low gold prices are having a predictable effect on mine output.
Monday, March 26, 2018
Hi-Ho Silver! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Peter_Degraaf
If the latest COT report for silver gets any more bullish than the one released on March 23rd, commercial traders will have to go ‘net long!’ As it is, they reduced their ‘net short’ position to the lowest number in many years, down to just 4,000 contracts – barely 2% of the total open interest! This is bullish action! As recently as January 16th the number of ‘net short’ positions was 50,000, and the percentage of open interest was 26%. (Charts are courtesy Goldchartsrus.com unless specified).
Monday, March 26, 2018
Trade War and Silver CoT – Details and Implications / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold soared by the end of the week. Miners didn’t – the HUI didn’t even move above the previous March highs. Silver’s performance was rather mixed, but closer to the one of miners than the one of gold. Why did gold rally? Why didn’t miners rally? How can the silver CoT numbers help in this case?
Let’s start with the first question. Why did gold rally in the final part of the previous week? The first reason was likely the increased tension regarding interest rates and Powell’s first Fed meeting. This was likely to cause only temporary volatility and it seems that it did. Based on how mining stocks performed relative to the gold market, it certainly seems that the precious metals market wants to go down. But, there’s another fundamental development that triggered another rally in gold (to a smaller extent) – the trade war. This term is too far-fetched – it’s just a trade battle for now. Let’s focus on the practical implications for the precious metals market. In short, just like a few threats between the U.S. and North Korea, the trade tensions between the U.S. and China are a geopolitical event.
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Monday, March 26, 2018
Time To Buy Gold As A 'Safe Haven' / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the GLD as a proxy for gold. I believe that the GLD can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to the GLD. While I have gone on record as to why I do not think the GLD is a wise long-term investment hold, I will still use it to track the market movements.
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Monday, March 26, 2018
Gold Cycle Anomaly & USD Cycles / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: SurfCity
Gold update: While I don’t care much for Cycle anomalies (i.e. short of long cycle), I am not going to fight them. Therefore, I am very bullish on Gold given the short ICL that has been left behind but the yellow metal has disappointed before so we still need to be cautious until the next resistance between 1360-1377 is taken out. The next week or 2 are critical, IMO and Gold needs to show some bullish follow through. My first 5+ year Weekly clearly shows that Gold has been forming a 5 year Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern and should explode higher once the over head resistance I have mentioned is taken out.
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Saturday, March 24, 2018
Will Gold Price Breakout? 3 Things to Watch… / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold has firmed above $1300 in recent days and is holding comfortably above $1300 for now. We think the market will break to the upside sometime this year. The question is when. Here are 3 things to watch that will tell us if Gold is on the cusp of that break-out soon or later.
First, keep your eye on Gold’s close at the end of next week. It’s not only the end of the week and month but also the end of the quarter. While Gold has traded above $1350 multiple times in the past two years, it has not made a quarterly close above $1330 since 2012. Since this is a quarterly time frame, we would need to see a close above $1340 or even $1345 to mark a significant breakout. If Gold can make such a close next Friday then the odds are good that it could break above $1375 fairly soon.
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Friday, March 23, 2018
Gold and Silver Possession Is a Constitutional Right – and a Practical Imperative / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
By David Smith, It's a safe bet that most readers of this column who hold physical precious metals – gold, silver, platinum and palladium – do so because they view them as a store of value. Gold and silver especially, have served in the role of honest money for at least five millennia.
With a melting point 700 degrees higher than gold, the Spaniards weren't able to determine how to utilize platinum, but they still considered it to be valuable, calling it platina – "little silver." It would be tossed it back into a stream so that it might be able to "grow up"!
Friday, March 23, 2018
Gold Junior Mining Stocks GDXJ Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The junior gold miners’ stocks have spent much of the past year grinding sideways near lows, sapping confidence and breeding widespread bearishness. The entire precious-metals sector has been left for dead, eclipsed by the dazzling taxphoria stock-market rally. But traders need to keep their eyes on the fundamental ball so herd sentiment doesn’t mislead them. The juniors’ recent Q4 results proved quite strong.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by securities regulators, these quarterly results are exceedingly important for investors and speculators. They dispel all the sentimental distortions surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities. That serves to re-anchor perceptions.
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Friday, March 23, 2018
Global Trade War Fears See Precious Metals Gain And Stocks Fall / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– Market turmoil as trade war concerns deepen and Trump appoints war hawk Bolton
– Oil, gold and silver jump as ‘Russia China Hawk’ Bolton appointed
– Oil up 4%, gold up 2.2% and silver up 1.6% this week (see table)
– Stocks down sharply – Nikkei down 4.5%, S&P 4.3% & Nasdaq 5.5%
– Bolton scares jittery markets already shell-shocked by US’ tariffs against China
– Currency wars and trade wars tend to proceed actual wars
– Gold now outperforming stocks year to date (see table)
Friday, March 23, 2018
Debt Cycles and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
There is a range of factors which drive the Kondratiev waves. Following Schumpeter, we have focused so far on technological innovations. However, debt cycles are also a key. What are they?
The debt cycles are comprised of alternate leveraging and deleveraging of debt. The former occurs when people incur debt, increasing the debt-to-income ratio, or the debt-to-assets ratio. The latter is the opposite, so it means paying back the debts, which leads to the decrease in the amount of debt relative to wages or assets.
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Thursday, March 22, 2018
Gold +1.8%, Silver +2.5% As Fed Increases Rates And Trade War Looms / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– Gold gained 1.8% and silver 2.5% to $1,333/oz and $16.60/oz yesterday
– Gold climbs as Fed increases interest rates by 0.25% – now 1.5% to 1.75% range
– Dovish Fed Chair Powell plans fewer than expected rate hikes in 2018
– Markets disappointed at lack of hawkish comments from new Fed Chair
– Dollar LIBOR rises to highest level since November 2008 – $200 trillion worth of dollar-denominated financial products including mortgages based off LIBOR
– Trade wars look set to escalate and Trump expected to announce tariffs on Chinese imports today
Thursday, March 22, 2018
When Is Three Better for Gold Than Four? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
His hand didn’t shake. Powell hiked interest rates at the first FOMC meeting with him as the Chair. But the key factor for the gold market is what he signaled about the future path of the federal funds rate. The crucial word is “three”, not “four”.
Another Meeting, Another Hike
In line with expectations, the FOMC acknowledged the improved economic outlook and raised interest rates again. The key paragraph of the recent monetary policy statement is as follows:
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Additional Signs for Gold and Silver Amid Increasing FOMC Tension / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Are you feeling lucky? We all should. Whether you’re short or long gold (or you’re waiting on the sidelines), the additional day of signals is truly a blessing. That is if you know what to look at. The previous days and weeks provided us with multiple signs and yesterday’s price action served as the – likely final – sign before the big price move. Were you listening?
Let’s start today’s analysis with something that we didn’t feature so far this week – the short-term look at the gold stocks to gold ratio (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Larry Kudlow vs. Vladimir Putin on Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jason_Hamlin
The gold price is up just 1% year to date in 2018 and has advanced 5.5% from the December 2017 low. There are some bullish signs from the chart, including a number of higher highs and higher lows following the late 2015 bottom at $1,045. But it certainly hasn’t been the powerful breakout the gold bugs have been hoping to see.
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Tuesday, March 20, 2018
Gold Short-term Pull Back in Progress / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts recent movements in the gold and silver markets.
Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.
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Tuesday, March 20, 2018
Gold Awaits Mr Powell's Introduction / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The FOMC members will gather today for a two-day meeting. It will be the most important event this week, since Powell will chair the meeting for the first time. Gold investors want to get to know him better as the uncertainty makes them a bit nervous. What should we expect from the new Fed Chair?
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Tuesday, March 20, 2018
If Alan Greenspan is Right, Gold Prices can Soar to over $7000 Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Submissions
Peter Ginelli writes: Lately we have been seeing the term “stagflation” used in many headlines, by many respected analysts as well as the former and longest serving Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in recent months.
Here are just a few samples headlines:
“Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds” By Tae Kim, January 31, 2018, CNBC
“Stagflation, a threat to US dollar” By Andrew Masters, FX Street, February 14, 2018
“Knock, Knock - Who's There? Stagflation!” By John Peabody, Seeking Alpha, February 15, 2018
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Monday, March 19, 2018
2018 Reversal Dates for Gold, Silver and Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Friday’s session in the precious metals sector was very exciting, but quite a few investors will want to agree to that, because the volatility wasn’t really big. But the dam is broken, and we saw several new cracks pointing to an incoming breakdown. It’s not the time to look away from all the signs – it’s time to take advantage of them.
In addition to showing you how we plan to proceed with the above, we’ll discuss something much bigger – the dates at which gold, silver and gold miners are likely to reverse during the course of the year based on the technique that proves to be extremely useful over and over again.
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