Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, June 30, 2017

Has Gold Production Peaked? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We often hear about ‘peak gold’, i.e. the maximum level of the global production of the yellow metal. According to some analysts, the gold supply already peaked in 2016 or it is likely to peak very soon, offering hope for gold bulls. We do not agree with them. The notion of gold peak is flawed and should not be a basis for investing in gold.

And here is why. It’s extremely difficult – or even impossible – to determine the peak in gold production, as the level of mining depends on many factors, including future discovery of new deposits and technological breakthroughs. Look at the chart below.

Friday, June 30, 2017

How High Could Crude Oil Price Go? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Wednesday, the black gold gained 1.13% after encouraging the EIA weekly report. As a result, light crude climbed to the previously-broken lower border of the trend channel, but closed the day below it. Will we see further improvement in the coming days?

Although yesterday’s EIA weekly report showed that crude oil inventories rose by 118,000 barrels in the previous week (missing expectations of a draw), the report also showed that gasoline inventories, dropped by 894,000 barrels (beating analysts’ forecasts), while distillate stockpiles declined by 223,000 barrels and beat expectations of a rise of 453,000 barrels.

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Is A Big Move In Oil Prices Due? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

In options trading, a straddle is literally a sit-on-the-fence strategy. By purchasing a put and a call at the same strike (price of underlying commodity) for the same time period, an investor isn’t making a conventional directional bet; rather the investor is looking for a big move either up or down. The rub is that the big move must be greater than the sum of the two option premia or the bet goes south. But that is in the nature of the trade.

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Crude Oil Sinks 20%: Why "Oversupply" Isn't the Half of It / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

Oil prices have defied bullish efforts to curb oversupply. Here's our take on why.

I have a friend... let's call him Larry. Let's just say, Larry is not a fan of taking risks. He likes his reflexes fast, his cars slow, and his financial markets secure for the long haul.

So, when Larry called me up at the beginning of this year to say he's boarding the highly-volatile crude oil market, I was appropriately stunned. But here's the thing. He was still being "wary Larry," meticulously weighing the risks. It just so happens they seemed to pale in comparison to the overwhelming rewards.

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Crude Oil In A New Bear Market? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The newest bear market is in crude oil. The definition of a bear market is when an ‘asset class’ is down more than 20% from its recent high: (Bear Market Rally Definition Investopedia).  It has been more than five years since the market fell so hard so fast from its’ high. Two months later, it was even lower. During the past 20 years, the SPX has struggled when oil fell into a bear market!

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Is There Still Hope For Higher Oil Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil prices have cratered in recent weeks, dipping to their lowest levels in more than seven months and any sense of optimism has almost entirely disappeared. All signs point to a period of “lower for longer” for oil prices, a refrain that is all too familiar to those in the industry.

WTI dipped below $44 per barrel on Tuesday, and the bearish indicators are starting to pile up.

Libya’s production just topped 900,000 bpd, a new multi-year high that is up sharply even from just a few weeks ago. Libyan officials are hoping that they will hit many more milestones in the coming months. Next stop is 1 million barrels per day (mb/d), which Libya hopes to breach by the end of July.

Monday, June 26, 2017

... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: OilPrice_Com

Monday, June 26, 2017

Gold & Gold Stocks Nearing a Big Move / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold and especially gold mining stocks rebounded on Wednesday and trended higher into the weekend. This is giving some investors renewed hopes that the bull market that began roughly 18 months ago is about to reassert itself. We cannot know for sure yet but what we can say is precious metals are nearing a big move. Gold and gold stocks have traded in tight ranges which will compress further while volatility indicators approach multi-year lows. This is the setup for a break and then a powerful move with increasing momentum and volatility.

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Gold and Silver Ongoing Consolidation May End Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets, and believes the ongoing consolidation may end soon.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Gold and GDX Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

From Venice… closes above the 10ema which is a good first step, IMO.

Friday, June 23, 2017

Gold Summer Doldrums / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has spent most of June grinding lower on balance, damaging sentiment and vexing traders.  Usual selling leading into the Fed’s latest rate hike contributed, but the summer doldrums are also in play.  Gold has typically suffered a seasonal lull this time of year, on waning investment demand as vacations divert attention from markets.  But these summer doldrums offer the best seasonal buying opportunities of the year.

This doldrums term is very apt for gold’s summer predicament.  It describes a zone in the world’s oceans surrounding the equator.  There hot air is constantly rising, creating long-lived low-pressure areas.  They are often calm, with little or no prevailing winds.  History is full of accounts of sailing ships getting trapped in this zone for days or even weeks, unable to make any headway.  The doldrums were murder on ships’ morale.

Friday, June 23, 2017

Gold’s Seasonality: Time to Get Positioned Ahead of Strongest Months / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Despite the recent weakness, the price of gold is still up 9% year to date and may be poised for a strong second half of 2017. This is not unusual: the yellow metal also had a strong start in 2016, only to give back some gains but ended the year in an uptrend, setting up a rally as the calendar moved to 2017.

So is there a seasonal pattern to the gold price? To answer that question, we dissected gold’s performance dating back to 1975 and identified some trends investors can use to their advantage.

Friday, June 23, 2017

EUR/JPY Exchange Rate and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We argued many times that the yellow metal behaves as a currency rather than as a commodity. Hence, macroeconomic factors and currency exchange rates affect the price of gold. In previous editions of the Market Overview, we analyzed the impact of the U.S. dollar and its exchange rate with the Euro and the Yen on the gold market. We pointed out that gold is negatively correlated with the greenback, so it moves in tandem with the Japanese or European common currency, as they are the major rivals of the U.S. dollar.

Friday, June 23, 2017

Crude Oil, Fresh Lows and Support Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Wednesday, the black gold moved lower once again after government data showed an increase in crude oil production, which offset a decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude hit a fresh 2017 low. What’s next for the commodity?

Let’s take a closer look at the charts and find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Friday, June 23, 2017

Gold and Silver Are "Asymmetric" Trades / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

By David Smith: An asymmetric trade is a situation where investing a relatively small amount of money holds the potential of yielding a profit many times the amount of the original sum at risk. In other words, where the risk to reward is skewed massively in the direction of reward.

This took place recently with Bitcoin (BTC). Is this conceptually different from bets made years ago on Microsoft, Cisco, Amazon, or Facebook, which yielded hundreds of percent profit to intrepid investors? Does it have relevance to the possible returns during the next few years for those who hold physical gold and silver?

Thursday, June 22, 2017

LOG 0.786 support in CRUDE OIL and COCOA / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Stephen_Cox

Originally written in the Wednesday JUN 21 MRI 3D Report,

CRUDE OIL GROUP- CLQ 17 (4253):  (W.D. GANN): Today is 19 trading days down from 52.00. 52×19= 988  Subtract 988 from 52.00 = 42.12 = the square of TIME and PRICE.  Today’s low = 42.05.

TIME: Today is 33a/May04 LOW, 7×7(G)d/APR12 TOP and 120(G)d/55.24 Jan03 TOP

Thursday, June 22, 2017

Ratio Combo Charts : Hidden Clues to the Gold Market Puzzle / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today I would like to update a few ratio combo charts as several are at a crossroad, which may shed some light on where the PM complex may be headed next. A couple of the ratio combo charts worked out extremely well in calling a bottom in January of 2016.

Lets start with the TLT:TIP ratio combo chart we looked at recently which shows if we’re experiencing inflation or deflation. When the ratio in black is falling it’s showing deflation and when it’s rising it’s showing inflation. From the 2011 high the general trend has been for deflation. About a year ago you can see the black ratio was rising in a pretty strong move up, but late last year and the first part of this year the ratio topped out and has begun to fall. The red arrows shows how the ratio is reversing symmetry down over the same area on the way up. For the time being there isn’t much in the way of support.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

This Chart Proves That Low Oil Prices Can’t Stop US Shale Oil Surge / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

By Geopolitical Futures, Mauldin Economics : The US has benefited from the shale revolution more than any other country. Not only does it have vast shale formations, most of its wells are located within its territory. That means producers don’t have to compete for jurisdiction or share their profits.

Shale oil is enmeshed in shale rock, which is located thousands of feet beneath the Earth’s surface and is generally less permeable than other rock types—making deposits more difficult to access.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Your Future Wealth Depends on what You Decide to Keep and Invest in Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

• Millienials look for instant gratification
• Spend half of their income on leisure
• Instant gratification doesn’t work if need to save for the future
• Savings rates falling, few have retirement funds
• Important to understand marginal difference between spending and pleasure
• Future wealth depends on what you decide to keep and invest in now

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Gold Price is Facing Trend Line Support / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Franco_Shao

After breaking below the bullish trend line from 1214.17 to 1258.92 at 1270 on its 4-hour chart, XAUUSD started a bearish movement from the June 6 high of 1295.94, and the bearish movement extended to as low as 1241.25. Further decline is still possible after a minor consolidation and next target would be at around 1230.