Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, March 07, 2017
Chartology of the Commodities: The Inflation/Deflation Barometer / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Rambus_Chartology
One of the biggest questions investors have is what type of environment are stocks and the economy in, deflation or inflation? Knowing the answer to that question can give you a heads up on what different sectors to invest in and what sectors to stay away from. Tonight I would like to update some of the different commodities indexes to see if they can give us any clues on which way the deflationary or inflationary pendulum is swinging. Commodities are often an under analysed asset class as compared to Stocks and Bonds. However they are the nuts and bolts , the real stuff supporting human existence.
Monday, March 06, 2017
Trapped Longs In Miners As Gold Poised For Fed Fuelled Fall / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017
By: Bob_Kirtley
The Fed will hike rates this month and signal further hikes to come. Gold prices have yet to fully digest this reality, and therefore there is a strong case for a major move lower in the yellow metal. A Le Pen victory in France could derail the Fed’s plans for a follow up hike in June, but in the short term the gold market is vulnerable to a sharp move lower. There are a number of trapped speculative longs in the futures and mining stocks and we are approaching a period of seasonal weakness. We target a move to $1050 initially, and see merits in a larger move to $720 should the Fed persist with further hikes.
Monday, March 06, 2017
Why Gold Will Boom In 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: OilPrice_Com
As Trump sets out to ‘make America great again’, gold is back on everyone’s radar, gaining on widespread uncertainty and promises of high-level inflationary infrastructure spending. For our favorite precious metal, this is a euphoric time. Gold is great again, and all-American gold—even better.The world’s hottest mining belt right now is the U.S. state of Montana. With gold futures up 10 percent and spot prices up almost 7.5 percent in the first quarter, history is preparing to repeat itself with another gold rush.
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Saturday, March 04, 2017
Copper Confirms the Negative Outlook for Precious Metals and Crude Oil / Commodities / Copper
By: The_Gold_Report
Looking at the charts, technical analyst Clive Maund sees copper "riding for a fall."
We have already observed how oil and precious metals are looking set to turn lower, especially oil, and the medium-term bearish outlook for these commodities is confirmed by the negative setup that we will now examine on the latest charts for copper. Ordinarily we are not all that interested in copper, because there are few suitable trading vehicles we can use to play it, so our interest is mainly due to its implications for other markets.
Saturday, March 04, 2017
More Downside Potential in the Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
While we expected the gold stocks to correct and test GDX $22 and GDXJ $35, we did not expect it to happen so quickly. It literally took only three days! Gold stocks rebounded on Friday and managed to close the week above those key levels. While gold stocks could bounce or consolidate for a few days, we would advise patience as lower levels could be tested as spring begins.
Saturday, March 04, 2017
Oil Market - You Won't Get a Clearer Warning Than This One / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts changes that portend a "brutal decline" in both the oil and precious metals markets.
This quick update on oil is to point out that the latest oil COTs and Hedgers positions were at frightening extremes, as oil has struggled and failed, thus far, to break higher. This is viewed as meaning trouble—BIG TROUBLE—for the oil market, where we could see a precipitous drop as in 2014.
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Friday, March 03, 2017
Silver On Sale – 4% Fall On Massive $2 Billion of Futures Selling / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
Silver fell a very sharp 85 cents from $18.40 per ounce to as low as $17.65 per ounce yesterday for a 4.25% price fall soon after the London bullion markets closed yesterday despite no market news or corresponding sharp moves in other markets.
Friday, March 03, 2017
Macroeconomic Outlook and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
As everyone knows, the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election was a disastrous time for the yellow metal. However, gold rebounded at the beginning of 2017, gaining almost 6 percent in January and rising further in February, as one can see in the chart below.
Chart 1: The price of gold over the last year (London P.M. Fix).
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Thursday, March 02, 2017
The Myth of Gold Confiscation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Nick_Barisheff
If we experience a debt crisis, as many economists believe is inevitable, many people believe that their holdings of gold and silver bullion will be confiscated, just as in 1933. This article reviews the probability of confiscation and compares it to other more likely measures to generate government solvency.
An appropriate starting point when addressing concerns about gold confiscation is to define the word 'confiscation.' Merriam Webster says 'to seize or buy as if by authority' and 'to seize without compensation as forfeited to the public treasury.' Almost without exception, it is expropriation that is the actual risk, not confiscation. Confiscation, as in forfeiture, is usually the result of theft, treason, insurrection, war or genocide. Expropriation is defined as 'to take (property) of an individual in the exercise of state sovereignty' (Merriam Webster). The key difference between confiscation and expropriation is the appropriate compensation of the individual for the transfer of his or her property.
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Thursday, March 02, 2017
Oil Majors' Costs Have Risen 66% Since 2011 / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: OilPrice_Com
The oil majors reported poor earnings for the fourth quarter of last year, but many oil executives struck an optimistic tone about the road ahead. Oil prices have stabilized and the cost cutting measures implemented over the past three years should allow companies to turn a profit even though crude trades for about half of what it did back in 2014.
Wednesday, March 01, 2017
Gold Pressured By Increasing Odds of March FED Rate Hike / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Jason_Hamlin
The gold price has corrected by roughly $25 over the past few days. This pullback has been driven by increased odds of a Fed rate hike during March. Federal Reserve officials have been making hawkish comments lately, which has been supportive of the USD index and thus bearish for precious metals. After hitting a 2017 high of $1,265 on Monday, the gold price has since dropped back to $1240 today.
On Monday the odds of a March rate hike were around 40%, but they have since increased to around 70% to 80% today. New York Fed President William Dudley told CNNMoney on Tuesday that the case for raising interest rates is growing.
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Wednesday, March 01, 2017
Art Market Bubble Bursting – Gauguin Value Collapses 74% To $22 Million / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
– Art Market Bubble Bursting?
– Russian Billionaire Takes 74% Loss On “Investment”
– $85 Million Gauguin Bought By Dmitry Rybolovlev in 2008
– Christie’s auctioned the work at its evening sale in London
– Global art sales plummet, but China rises as ‘art superpower’
– China soon to dominates global art and gold market
– Art price volumes doubled since 2009
– As currencies debase super rich seek out stores of value
– Gold remains accessible store of value for all
– Stocks, bonds and many assets at record prices
– Gold half it’s real price in 1980
Wednesday, March 01, 2017
Next Crude Oil Price Rally? Futures Say Market Is Tightening / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
U.S. oil inventories are at record levels, but there are a few glimmers of hope that the glut could be starting to subside.
Storing crude oil for sale at a later date is no longer profitable, as the futures curve has flattened out in recent weeks, depriving traders of a strategy that has served them well over the past few years. The market “contango,” in which front-month oil contracts trade at a discount to oil futures six months or a year out, has all but vanished. The differential must be large enough to cover the cost of storage, and for many time spreads that is no longer the case. After three years of a steep contango, storing oil simply to take advantage of the time spreads is increasingly uneconomical.
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Wednesday, March 01, 2017
Gold – It’s Still All About The US Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Kelsey_Williams
The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. And that isn’t likely to change in any radical way, anytime soon. Unless there is some kind of calamitous implosion of the dollar. I am talking about outright rejection and repudiation. And that could happen. The problem is that there isn’t another currency that could likely take its place.
By the time that possibility becomes a reality, any possible candidates would likely be in worse shape. This includes the Euro and Chinese Yuan.
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Wednesday, March 01, 2017
NEW UNCOVERED INFORMATION: Why Central Banks Were Forced To Rig The Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Steve_St_Angelo
According to newly uncovered information in the gold market, it provides additional evidence of why the Fed, Central Banks and the IMF were forced to RIG the gold market. Actually, looking at this new information, I had no idea of the amount of Fed, Central Bank and IMF gold market intervention until I put all the pieces together.
Now, when I say “new information”, it pertains to new information and data that I dug up from older official documents. While most of the folks in the precious metals community realize that the Fed and Central Banks have sold gold into the market to depress the price, this new evidence puts the gold market it in an entirely DIFFERENT LIGHT.
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Tuesday, February 28, 2017
Gold Stocks Enormous Daily Slide / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Yesterday was just another period of back-and-forth movement for gold, silver, the USD Index and even the general stock market – but not for precious metals mining stocks. Gold stocks and silver stocks plunged very visibly - there are very important implications of this move and they are not bullish.
Let’s take a closer look at the charts (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com), starting with the GDX ETF (proxy for both gold and silver stocks).
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Tuesday, February 28, 2017
Peak Wealth and Peak Energy / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Raul_I_Meijer
You could perhaps say that this is part 4 in a series on -America’s- peak wealth, even if it was never intended to be such a series; it just happened. First, in a February 18 essay about declining economic growth, “Not Nearly Enough Growth To Keep Growing”, I said “..the Automatic Earth has said for many years that the peak of our wealth was sometime in the 1970’s or even late 1960’s”.
That prompted a reply from long-time Automatic Earth reader Ken Latta, which he turned into an article a few days later which I published on February 23 as “When Was America’s Peak Wealth?” Ken reasoned that America’s peak wealth was sometime in the late ’50s to early 60’s.
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Monday, February 27, 2017
Will Gold Prices Finally Pull Back or Continue Marching Ahead? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: MoneyMetals
Gold prices are up more than 11% since bottoming last December. Their gains last week took the gold market right up to its 50-week moving average. In 2015, attempted rallies reversed at the 50-week moving average. Could this level once again serve as a barrier to further price advances?
Either way, long-term gold bulls shouldn’t sweat this particular technical level. Major bull markets need to pull back and reconsolidate periodically.
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Monday, February 27, 2017
Reasons Why Investors Should Avoid Gold ETFs / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017
By: John_Mauldin
BY STEPHEN MCBRIDE : Gold may have ended 2016 on a negative note, but the yellow metal is now up 7% since January. A big contributor to its rise is the large inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (gold ETFs). In 2016, inflows into gold ETFs were the second highest on record and accounted for 34% of total investment demand.
With inflows showing continued strength in 2017, why should investors avoid gold ETFs?
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Sunday, February 26, 2017
Do Gold Miners Need to Lead the Metals? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017
By: Gary_Savage
It’s a common misconception that miners always lead the metals sector. As you can see in this chart the miners often produce false signals.
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