Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, February 29, 2016

Crowded Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Bob_Loukas

Even though Gold did not continue higher this week, sentiment still seems to be dangerously elevated. Talk of $2,000 Gold and a new bull market has become common, and Gold seems ripe for a fall, at least in the short term. Don’t misinterpret my point – I see the evidence that a new bull market trend is developing, but that’s in the intermediate term. Shorter term, the current rally is approaching its limits.

Monday, February 29, 2016

Gold's Message / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Mike_Shedlock

Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank CIO and chief economist, emailed a chart of gold last week with his comments on what the chart means. I meant to comment on his comments at the time, but will do so now.

Monday, February 29, 2016

Silver Prices in Five Years? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

What will the price of silver be in 2021?  You can find articles suggesting the price of silver will be over $1,000 and under $10.  Perhaps this is the wrong question.

A better approach:  The global financial system is increasingly unstable and fragile, more so than in 2008.  The important question is: How will governments, central banks and financial systems respond to the ongoing crisis?  Future prices for silver are dependent upon the answer to that question.  I suggest three possible scenarios.

Monday, February 29, 2016

Silver Price Breaks Lower - Gold and PM Stocks Set to Plunge... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Clive_Maund

In the latest Gold and Silver Market updates, posted last weekend, the view was expressed that an intermediate top was forming gold and silver, not a bull Flag as some were suggesting, and the latest COT data not only confirms this view, but suggests that a severe drop is imminent, and it already started in silver on Friday. Fortunately we exited most of our long positions in the sector, many at a handsome profit, over the past 2 weeks, having spotted the danger.

The latest 1-year chart for gold is - or should be - alarming for those still long the sector. It shows gold churning having hit a target after a parabolic slingshot move that resulted in it becoming heavily overbought. Now it is vulnerable to a reaction which the latest COTs suggest will be heavy. Breakdown from the parabola will likely lead to a dramatic plunge.

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Gold Price Generates Long-term Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Savage

Gold has just generated a long term buy signal. This is exact;y what should happen if the 8 year cycle low is complete. I've been saying the 8 year cycle low has to occur along with a yearly cycle low, and we got a yearly cycle low in December.

Sunday, February 28, 2016

US Dollar Rebound Increases Near-Term Gold and Stocks Risk / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week we noted that the odds favored more upside in precious metals before a larger correction would begin. While that view remains on track, we want to note the renewed strength in the US Dollar which could provide immediate resistance to higher levels in Gold and gold stocks.

The chart below plots the weekly candles for the US$ index and the net speculative position in the US$ index. The US$ index closed back above its 200-day moving average (97) and remains well above its 400-day (or 80-week moving average).

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Gold And Silver – February Heralding End Of Down Trend? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Michael_Noonan

Applying market logic:

We often state that the market is replete with logic, even for those who do not know how or do not like to look at charts to explain the markets. Charts that explain developing market activity have been superior to all fundamental analysis over the last several years. For us, that statement would include for as long as charts have been maintained, starting with Japan’s rice market, a few hundred years ago.

Most market participants have some [unrequited] need to have fundamentals be the driving force behind their market comprehension. [See the stock market top from 2008 and the ongoing follow-up by fundamentalists who were unable to comprehend how their world of value investing had just been turned upside down. As an aside, charts were flashing a major sell signal after the top but well before the collapse]. We digress…not really. The point is valid.

Friday, February 26, 2016

OceanaGold’s Epic Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

With the gold-mining sector’s market-dominating outperformance this year, investors are searching for the best-of-breed gold miners.  The elite mid-tier OceanaGold is certainly among them.  OceanaGold has truly epic fundamentals, combining super-profitable low-cost gold production with a solid balance sheet and great growth potential.  Gold-stock investors really need to seriously consider this gem for their portfolios.

OceanaGold likely derives its name from Oceania, a loose geographic region comprising the islands of the southwest Pacific Ocean.  And given OceanaGold’s operations in New Zealand and the Philippines, its name is quite apt.  OceanaGold operates several gold mines, and recently acquired a great new gold project in South Carolina.  While not widely known yet by American investors, OceanaGold eventually will be.

Friday, February 26, 2016

Look What’s Happening to Gold Priced in OTHER Currencies [Wow…] / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

At the close of market on the Wednesday this essay was written, the price of one troy ounce of gold was US$1,229. A troy ounce of silver was trading at US$15.25.

Around the world, the price of gold and silver is most commonly quoted in U.S. dollars. As Americans, we tend to think this is the pricing "gold standard." But it's easy to forget that foreign investors generally pay for a purchase in their country's dominant currency.

Friday, February 26, 2016

“Buy Gold” As “Insurance Is Warranted” – Deutsche Bank / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

Buy gold as “insurance is warranted” Deutsche Bank have advised in a note issued today.

The embattled German bank has said that rising economic risks and market turmoil mean investors should buy gold for insurance.

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Gold’s Full House / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Tanashian

Using the Macrocosm theme again (I can’t get enough of this gimmick) let’s update some key gold ratios in poker terms.

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Gold Will Overwhelm Dent / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

Harry Dent is a good demographer and stands for what he believes.  But this is not about Harry Dent.

Charles Sizemore is a writer and editor who works for Harry Dent, but this is not about Charles Sizemore.

This is about gold!

Over a century ago JP Morgan understood that gold was money and the rest was credit.  But he lived when you could buy groceries with a gold eagle and a cup of coffee cost a few cents.

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Why Central Banks Will Buy Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Hubert_Moolman

Money is a store of value (or wealth), a medium of exchange as well as a unit of account. In order for money to be effective in the above it has to have the following properties:

• divisible - should be divisible in smaller units
• portable - able to carry it around therefore a high value should be able to be contained in a small space and weight
• homogenous - one unit should be the same as any another unit
• durable - should not be able to be easily destroyed or eroded
• valuable - should have intrinsic value, normally because it is desirable. Should not be able to be created or discovered without reasonable effort (normally a commodity itself).

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

This Is What Gold Does In A Currency Crisis, British Edition / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: John_Rubino

It appears that Great Britain might actually do the until-recently-unthinkable, and leave the European Union. The reasons for this dramatic break-up are many, and can be Googled easily enough. For our purposes, suffice to say that traders are scrambling to figure out what this means for the British pound, and they’re not liking the answers. Here’s a quick look at the recent foreign exchange action:

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Gold Price Now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Axel_Merk

Gold never changes; it's the world around it that does. Why is it that we see a renewed interest in gold now? And more importantly, should investors buy this precious metal?

Key attributes in a 'changing world' that may be relevant to the price of gold are fear and interest rates. Let's examine these:

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Who Will Be Left Standing At The End Of The Oil War / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

This is a financial cold war—nothing more, nothing less.

While there are billions of reasons to cut output, and every major producing country is reeling from the loss of revenues, some are weathering the current bust better than others, but the devil is in the details, and the details contain tons of variables.

Production cost and breakeven figures that analysts enjoy bandying can trap you in bubble of black-and-white mathematics that is a few brush-strokes shy of a full picture.

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Eric Coffin Can See the End of the Gold Stocks Bear Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

When the New York markets run out of steam, the gold market gets hot. HRA Editor Eric Coffin has been watching the companies with the best assets, waiting for just this moment. In this interview with The Gold Report, he shares the names of the best in the gold, silver, copper and uranium spaces and tells you where you can go to talk to the CEOs.

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Gold and the 34-Month Moving Average / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Ed_Carlson

Gold gave up $8.70 last week (after the previous week's gain of $81.30/oz.) to close at 1,230 and printed a bearish harami candlestick on the weekly chart. Friday's close was on resistance at 1,230. Look for support at 1,190.

A breakout from the 34-month exponential moving average (chart) would be very bullish. Assuming a breakout, our price target is 1,370.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Gold GLD ETF Continues to Astound / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dan_Norcini

I can think of no better word except, "astounding", when considering what is taking place with the giant gold ETF, GLD and its reported holdings increases.

This afternoon's reported gold holdings showed an increase of exactly 19.33 tons to 752.29 tons. This is identical to the increase seen last Friday ( 19.33 tons). In two days time, we have seen almost 39 tons of gold added to the vaults of GLD. I am hard pressed to find anything similar in its past.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Copper: The Next Metal Set To Rise After Gold? / Commodities / Copper

By: InvestingHaven

The copper market is getting excited! After a drop of +50% since it peaked in 2011, copper has basically gone only one way, i.e. down (just not in a straight line).

Now, copper is showing a similar setup as gold two months ago, right before gold rose sharply higher. Copper’s chart setup makes it very interesting, because sentiment is so negative nowadays: economic growth is slowing (driven by China), the interest rate hike was followed by talks about coming negative interest rates, companies are reporting rather poor earnings, manufacturing data are not very encouraging, … The list is endless, so everyone and his uncle is convinced that copper can only go one direction, i.e. down. That’s exactly the moment when magic happens in markets, as prices tend to move in the opposite direction, but that’s only a  benefit for the sharpest investors as 99% has given up already.