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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Monday, January 26, 2015

Risk of New Debt Crisis After Syriza Victory In Greece / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

The crushing victory of the Greek opposition party Syriza in yesterday’s Greek elections has added to jitters in already jittery financial and foreign exchange markets.

The euro tumbled and gold in euros surged to its highest level since April 2013, at €1,167.94/oz as markets opened in Asia. The euro has since stablised but remains near a 11 year low against the dollar and is now down 16.7 per cent against gold in January alone.

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Commodities

Monday, January 26, 2015

Comprehensive Silver Price Chart Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Rambus_Chartology

Five days ago silver broke out of an inverse H&S bottom that has temporarily reversed the downtrend. I measured the more conservative price objective using the higher low instead of the Swiss spike low which comes in around the 19.80 area on the log chart. It will be interesting to see if the Swiss spike low will be the ultimate low for the bear market or just a short to intermediate low. Sometimes big trends can end with one last shake out of the weak hands similar to the Swiss spike low.

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Commodities

Monday, January 26, 2015

Decoding the Gold COTs: Myth vs Reality / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dan_Norcini

Over the many years that I have been writing about the commodity futures markets, I have tried to make a point of homing in on the fact that it is the presence of high-powered speculative money flows that drive market action.

Whenever commentators speak of fundamental factors that should go into determining the price of any commodity, they tend to generally speak in terms of demand for the physical product versus the amount of supply for that same product. More often than not, omitted from the discussion is the role that speculators play.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Gold And Silver Timing Is Most Important Element / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

"Excuse me, sir, do you have the time?"

In a Clinton-esque response: "It depends on what the definition of "time" is."

Throughout much of 2013 and all of 2014, there were numerous stories/reports out on what would have to be considered as very bullish prospects for the prices of gold and silver. There were calls for gold to rally anywhere from $3,000 to over $25,000 the ounce, $100 to over $500 the ounce for silver. Almost no one called for both metals to make new recent lows by the end of 2014, where gold was $1,180 and silver $15,50. This was a far cry from even the most conservative bullish calls for much higher prices by the end of 2014.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Gold Price Maintains Strength while Large Miners Reach Resistance / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

In recent days and weeks we noted key levels for Gold at $1250 as well as $1270-$1280. Over the past two weeks Gold easily cleared $1250 and continued to $1300. Today it is trading around $1290 and will close above its 80-week moving average for the second consecutive week. That last happened in late 2012. Gold continues to show strength and far more bullish than bearish signs.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 24, 2015

Bitcoin Price Rebound Might Be Coming to an End / Commodities / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

Briefly: no speculative positions.

News broke that the Winklevoss brothers, twins who battled Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg in court, are out there to create a fully-regulated Bitcoin exchange. As a matter of fact, they're already working on it and their team seems to have made some progress, we read in a DealBook article:

Now two of the biggest boosters of the virtual currency, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, are trying to firm up support by creating the first regulated Bitcoin exchange for American customers -- what they are calling the Nasdaq of Bitcoin.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 24, 2015

Stock Traders Flock to Gold GLD ETF / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold surged this week on massive buying from stock investors and speculators.  This critical group of traders and their vast pools of capital utterly abandoned gold in the past couple years.  So to see them start to flock back is a watershed event, heralding a major reversal in gold’s fortunes.  And with their gold exposure remaining near extreme lows, they have vast buying left to do to restore prudent portfolio diversification.

Successful investors have always practiced this essential concept of not putting all their eggs in one basket.  This great wisdom is ancient, stretching back at least three millennia to King Solomon’s reign in ancient Israel.  In the Biblical book of Ecclesiastes he advised, “Invest in seven ventures, yes, in eight; you do not know what disaster may come upon the land.”  Portfolio diversification is absolutely critical.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 24, 2015

Gold in Euros Surges As ECB To Print Trillion Euros and Greek Election This Sunday / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

Stocks, bonds and precious metals surged yesterday as markets cheered the latest wave of money printing on a grand scale.

Gold surged 3 per cent in euro terms (see chart below) after Mario Draghi in the ECB announced a massive quantitative easing or QE programme of over EUR 1 trillion from March 2015 to September 2016.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 24, 2015

Gold Bear Market Rally or New Bull ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Submissions

Plunger writes: Let’s step back and take a look at where we are and eyeball a few charts. I think one needs to resolve the key question with oneself. Are we in a new bull market or has this been yet another BMR within a big bad bear market that has not yet hit bottom? Rambus’ long term charts argue that the bear is not yet over. My studies with the psychology of bear markets and the categorizing of phases also argue the bear is not over. So if one was to also conclude the bottom is not yet in, then by definition this current 12 week rally is a BMR.

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Commodities

Friday, January 23, 2015

Global QE and the Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clif_Droke

After months of waiting, the European Central Bank (ECB) finally carried through with its stated promise of unlimited monetary support to its ailing economy. The ECB announced its own version of quantitative easing (QE) on Thursday, a move which lifted the dark clouds that have recently hung over financial markets.

In March the ECB will begin purchasing 60 billion euros' worth of government and corporate bonds through September 2016. In response to the announcement the equity markets of several major countries rallied while the price of gold and silver also rose.

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Commodities

Friday, January 23, 2015

Gold Price Due for a Setback? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dan_Norcini

Now that we have had a chance to see how the dust settled after this historic day in the markets, there are some observations I would like to make.

I want to start out first with the junior mining shares, as evidenced by the GDXJ. The readers know that I have expressed concern over the fact that this group has been lagging the performance of the actual metal. Typically, in a strong upside run in gold, that is not the case as this index tends to outperform the metal itself.

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Commodities

Friday, January 23, 2015

This Is What Gold Does In A Currency Crisis, Euro Edition / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: John_Rubino

Today the European Central Bank acknowledged that the currency it manages is being sucked into a deflationary vortex. It responded in the usual way with, in effect, a massive devaluation. Eurozone citizens have also responded predictably, by converting their unbacked, make-believe, soon-to-be-worth-a-lot-less paper money into something tangible. They’re bidding gold up dramatically.

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Commodities

Friday, January 23, 2015

Gold New Bull Beginning? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Aden_Forecast

Gold ended 2014 essentially breakeven, being slightly down (1½%). It was a choppy year for gold and a bad year for gold shares.

But it looks like the bear market may now be coming to an end. In fact, it could happen at any time.

The seemingly never ending fall in the oil price, the plunging euro and petro currencies, and weaker stocks all pushed safe haven buying to bonds and gold as the new year got started.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Crushing The U.S. Oil and Gas Energy Export Dream / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Exporting crude oil and natural gas from the United States are among the dumbest energy ideas of all time.

Exporting gas is dumb.

Exporting oil is dumber.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Will Gold Price Break Out Once Again? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion no speculative positions are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective. Being on the long side of the precious metals market with half of the long-term investment capital seems justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Gold rallied once again yesterday and so did silver and mining stocks. The question is if the rally is about to pause or end, since mining stocks are not really outperforming gold and the USD Index has just confirmed the breakout above the 2005 high.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Gold and Silver Early Days / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jesse

After a morning smackdown gold was able to hold its level just below 1300, with silver showing a little more resilience.

Tomorrow we should hear the official word from the ECB, after the 'leak' today of over a trillion in QE per year.

The central banks of the West are 'plowing the oceans.'

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Is Gold Pro-cyclical or Anti-cyclical? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Is Gold Pro-cyclical or Anti-cyclical?

There are no two identical business cycles. Their courses depend on the many independent actions of market participants. Also, each time money flows and spreads out differently in the economy, affecting distinct prices in various ways. However, according to a general pattern, business cycles can be broken down into four stages, during which distinct assets classes, including gold, behave differently. To understand what may happen in the gold market during a possible recession, we have to examine how changes in the business cycle affect the performance of different asset classes.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Gold Price Reaches First Target – Potential Short-term Pull Back Now Possible / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: MarketsToday

As discussed in our last analysis on gold from January 4, a bearish AB=CD pattern was forming with a 100% D leg completion at 1,273.9. That price target was reached last Friday as gold hit a high of 1,282.11 for the week. Although not assured, a pullback is now possible. In addition to the ABCD completion, potential resistance can also be seen in this general price area from previous price structure (support and resistance). 

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Gold Price Model Says Gold Still Undervalued / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

Gold hit a price low of approximately $1,140 in early November 2014. Since then it has rallied dramatically, possibly because of global fears about the financial system, the Swiss National Bank removing its peg to the Euro, more QE, escalating war in the Ukraine, or simply that gold prices were over-extended and ready to rally.

In my opinion gold reached an important low in November, and in spite of a rising dollar, has rallied since then in dollar terms, and even more in most other fiat currencies.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Gold Demand Explodes as Volatility and Fear Stalk Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

Although the extent to which the surprise move by the Swiss National Bank last week has damaged financial institutions will not be apparent until the end of the month, it is already clear that enormous damage has been wreaked on many businesses exposed to the foreign exchange markets.

GoldCore has seen significant increase in gold demand from investors in the first weeks of January 2015 as compared to the same period in 2014. Gold bullion volume amongst buyers was 3 (365%) times level last year, with particular emphasis being placed on safe secure storage vaults in Zurich and Hong Kong and Singapore.

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