Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, August 28, 2020

Gold Miners and Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

I want to try to answer a subscriber’s question as clearly as I can because it really does seem to be more confusing than it actually is. It’s always made sense to me but I understand there is a promotion machine out there selling viewpoints and in the gold sector especially, it is often wrong-headed, lazy analysis using tired assumptions.

“I do have a couple of questions that relate to gold/gold miner stocks that I can’t seem to get my head around. No hurry on an answer, just when you get time: From time to time, you have mentioned that inflation would send the gold bugs scurrying for cover. I had always thought that gold would rise during inflationary periods so I can’t seem to get why inflation would not be good for gold. And on the middle ground; how would gold likely act if we experience a prolonged period of stagflation?”

Thursday, August 27, 2020

Precious Metal Bullion Markets Catch a Breath / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Gold bugs may finally be taking their summer (stay)vacation. After months of frenetic activity in the bullion markets, physical buying and selling slowed a bit last week.

The respite, if it persists, could be welcome news for investors who have been frustrated by product scarcity and higher premiums.

The COVID-19-associated economic troubles have not been resolved, but those stories aren’t commanding the level of attention they did in recent weeks.

Thursday, August 27, 2020

Are You Positioned for a Copper Price Explosion? / Commodities / Copper

By: Metals_Report

Independent financial analyst Matt Badiali presents the investment case for copper.

Copper will be the next metal to break out in 2020, and it's all about demand.

The price of copper just broke through $3.00 per pound. The red metal's price rose 45% so far in 2020. But that is still well below its 2011 high of $4.50 per pound.

That could change in the second half of this year.

Thursday, August 27, 2020

What The 1987 Crash Reveals About Silver Today / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

The 1987 stock market crash occurred after a period with a similar build up to the 2020 crash. After being stuck in a range for a number of years in the 1970s and the 2000s, the Dow managed to break higher after a significant gold peak in 1980 as well as 2011 respectively. See the chart below:

Thursday, August 27, 2020

$10,000 Gold – Or A Triple Top? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Predictions for gold’s price are based on seemingly sound fundamentals and logic; but the fundamentals are incorrect and presented in unrealistic context. Here are some things to keep in mind when you see any predictions for the price of gold.  

GOLD IS NOT AN INVESTMENT

Gold, itself, is not an investment. Gold is real money and the original measure of value for everything else.

A higher gold price is inversely correlated to a decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar. This, can be seen historically on the chart (source) below…

Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Could Buffett Buy 130 Million Ounces of Silver Again? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Earlier this week, precious metals markets got a surprising Buffett bounce.

Legendary investor Warren Buffett isn’t often associated with gold – at least not in a positive way. In the past Buffett has made derisive comments about the monetary metal. He once quipped that gold “has no utility.”

A perpetual optimist on the U.S. economy, Buffett by nature doesn’t like the message that is sent by higher gold prices. He has likened investing in gold to “going long on fear.”

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Fed Can Control Yield Curve. But It Can’t Control Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In a response to the coronavirus crisis, the Fed has already cut interest rates to zero and implemented quantitative easing. But that’s not enough and the U.S. central bankers are now talking about “yield curve control”. What is it and how it could affect the gold market?

Normally, the central banks lower the short-term interest rate to stimulate the economy. But the federal funds rate is already at zero, so the Fed now thinks about the yield curve control. It works basically like normal open-market operations – the only difference is that under the yield curve control, the Fed would target some longer-term interest rate. As the central bank would set the short-term rates at zero and it would target also longer-term rates, it would practically control the yield curve, which explains the name. Moreover, the Fed would also promise to buy enough bonds to keep the rate from moving above the target – this is why the yield curve control is also called “interest rate caps” or “interest rate pegs”.

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Gold and Silver Precious Metals Cycles Demand Attention / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Research Highlights:

• With Gold trading above $2,000 for the first time and Silver trading near $27.50, you need to understand the risks in the markets that precious metals are warning of.
• If Gold breaks above $2,400, then there is a very real concern that the global markets could be close to some type of decline/collapse event.
• We believe the upside potential in precious metals could drive a very wide sideways market rotation, similar to what happened between 1999 and 2011, over the next 3+ years that may catch many off-guard.

Over the past few weeks and months, my research team and I have been actively publishing this research to help you better understand what is really happening in the markets right now.  With Gold trading above $2,000 for the first time and Silver trading near $27.50, skilled traders need to understand the risks in the markets that precious metals are warning of.  Think of it like this, as long as Gold continues to trade near or above $1900, the risk levels in the global markets are at extreme levels for traders and investors.  If Gold breaks above $2,400, then there is a very real concern that the global markets could be close to some type of decline/collapse event.

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Warren Buffett: From Gold-Hater to Gold Bug / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth discusses Warren Buffett's big move into gold and discusses why the price of the metal is likely to climb much higher.

Warren Buffett has long been known as one of the biggest gold-haters around.

Yet in one move he's helped gold go mainstream.

The "Oracle of Omaha's" about face could be the ultimate Buy Signal.

For millions of investors, seeing Buffett dump banks while buying gold is likely to have a profound impact.

But as I'll show you, what's going on in the gold markets goes way beyond Buffett.

Monday, August 24, 2020

Powerful Deflationary Winds" Include a "Bust in Commodity Prices / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

"Powerful Deflationary Winds" Include a "Bust in Commodity Prices"

Elliott Wave International's analysts have posited that the next big global monetary event will be deflation, not inflation.

The writer of an August 18 Telegraph article also sees "powerful deflationary winds."

Monday, August 24, 2020

The 100% Gold Portfolio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nick_Barisheff

When I founded BMG Group Inc. (formerly Bullion Management Group Inc. – BMG) over 20 years ago, I thought that my main challenge would be to get approval for our first fund from the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC). My premise was that there was no approved way for retail investors to hold bullion in their RRSPs and other registered accounts. In addition, I wanted to structure the fund in a way that would not compromise the three fundamental attributes of bullion: liquidity, no counterparty risk and independent of management skills. Upon investigating closed-end funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and proxies, such as mining stocks and futures contracts, I found that all of these structures either compromised the liquidity of physical bullion or were not bullion at all, and were therefore dependent on counterparties for their performance. Other attributes compromised the direct ownership of bullion due to dependence on a portfolio manager to make trading decisions and to manage the asset. In addition, bullion leasing and leverage could distort the pure performance of bullion.

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Was That the Top in Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

It could have been. But what is more likely, it could have been the final pre-plunge top in case of the mining stocks. Why? Because the history tends to rhyme, and the verses appear more similar to what we already “read” in the mining stocks than they what we can see on the gold market.

Before digging into details, we would like to quote what we wrote on mining stocks on Monday:

Back in March, gold moved back to its previous highs (in fact it moved slightly above it) before topping and right now, it’s consolidating lower. Still, we should keep in mind that there’s also the possibility that gold won’t repeat the March performance to the letter and history will rhyme instead.

Friday, August 21, 2020

Gold Price - See What This Fibonacci Ratio Says About Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI

A Fibonacci .618 retracement is a common reversal point in the markets

Fibonacci numbers follow a sequence that begins with 0 and 1, and each subsequent number is the sum of the previous two (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, and so on).

After the first several numbers in the sequence, the ratio of any number to the next higher is approximately .618 to 1; its ratio to the next lower number is approximately 1.618 to 1.

Friday, August 21, 2020

Beyond the Surreal: Navigating the Precious Metals Minefield / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

The story of how an inner city liquor store grew its business serves as an example of what sector expert Michael Ballanger calls " a compelling revelation of 'academics versus practicality.'"

In watching the travesty of disinformation, misinformation and moral hazard formation ongoing in the global financial markets, I am immediately reminded of a case study from my university days of which I was a part, the nature of which required that our team analyze a local business and make specific recommendations designed to improve it. Seeing as our campus was located in the Saint Louis inner city, surrounded on three sides by a ghetto second only to Detroit's in crime and murder, and on the fourth by Interstate 70, it was to no one's surprise that the "local business" we were to dissect was a package liquor outlet run by a large and very angry African American gentleman by the name of Marcus Thicke.

Friday, August 21, 2020

Buffett’s Indicator tells him to buy GOLD / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Warren Buffett did what he said he’d never do, and that is buy gold - not the physical metal, nor an ETF, but a gold mining stock. Buffett and/or his holding company's managers chose ABX, as it is known in Toronto, or GOLD, on the New York exchange. The surprising trade is highly symbolic given Buffett’s previous fervently anti-gold public statements.

Last Friday the Oracle of Omaha’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKB) picked up about 20 million shares of Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX), presumably on the strength of the second largest gold company’s growth potential, and the fact it pays a $0.08/share dividend.

“If you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end,” the Oracle famously wrote in a 2011 annual shareholder letter, joking about a big pile of gold that “you can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.”

Thursday, August 20, 2020

The Gold and Silver Dam Breaketh / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Ask precious metals' holders and chart technicians what in the last 6-8 weeks stands out in their mind and they will point to the breakout of gold and silver above areas which had contained them for almost a decade.

Gold rocketed without pause to $2,070. Silver, though still well below record nominal dollar highs, sliced through $26, which was supposed to be a lid on prices until next year.

A litany of "price pullers" we've long discussed in our essays – government deficit spending, lagging metals' production vs. exploding demand, and an almost complete absence of big discoveries have all played a part.

Thursday, August 20, 2020

The Case for a Platinum-Plated Metals Portfolio / Commodities / Platinum

By: MoneyMetals

Do precious metals still represent good value?

With gold just coming off a new all-time high above $2,000/oz and silver having more than doubled off its March bottom, some investors may be wary of entering these markets right now.

However, when adjusted for inflation, when measured against the stock market, or when compared to total money supply, a strong case can be made that gold is not yet overvalued – and that silver remains undervalued.

Investors who are seeking an even more deeply undervalued opportunity within the metals space should take a look at platinum.

Wednesday, August 19, 2020

Silver Price Rockets to Multi-Year Highs, Targets $169 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Jason_Hamlin

After nearly 7 years of consolidation and mostly sideways trading, the silver price is finally experiencing a powerful breakout. It did not take long after breaking above the psychologically-important $20 level for silver to climb another nearly 50% toward $30 per ounce.

The silver price has since corrected by 11% to the current price of $26.40, but remains up more than 45% in three weeks. Remarkably, silver is now up more than 125% from the March lows and we see significantly more upside ahead.

Tuesday, August 18, 2020

Gold After US Dollar Dominance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Today, if gold had the same kind of performance as the Dow since around the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, then it would have topped out at around $7 758 [(29568/78.78)*20.67]. Yet, it only has an all-time high of about $2 089.

In 1973 gold was in a similar type of position. The Dow had peaked at 1067.2 (in Jan 1973), which represented a X13.55 (1067.2/78.78) since 1913. If gold had scored a similar performance, it would have had a peak of about $280 (13.55*20.67), yet its peak at that time (the beginning of 1973) was only around $70.

Monday, August 17, 2020

Gold & Silver Detailed Trend Forecast 2020 and 2021 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This research article may get a bit technical, so please excuse us in advance if we ramble on about Measured Moves, Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs, and other technical jargon.  Our goal is to share with you our expectations for Gold and Silver near the end of 2020 and out into early 2021.

ARCS, MEASURES & THE US DOLLAR

Our first observation to share with you today is the potential for the  “Measured Price Moves” in Gold and Silver to continue.  We’ve seen near-perfect price advances over the past 8+ months relating to these Measured Moves.  In Gold, the Measured Move equates to about $263.20.  In Silver, the measured move equated to about $5.40.