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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Currencies

Sunday, September 29, 2013

China Yaun, Renminbi: Soon to Be a World Reserve Currency? / Currencies / China Currency Yuan

By: John_Mauldin

I get the question all the time: when will the Chinese renminbi (RMB) replace the US dollar as the major world reserve currency? The assumption behind such questions is almost always that the coming crisis in US entitlement programs will force the Fed to monetize even more debt, thereby killing the dollar. Or some derivative line of that thought. Contrary to the thinking of fretful dollar skeptics, my firm belief is that the US dollar is going to become even stronger and will at some point actually deserve to be the reserve currency of choice rather than merely the prettiest girl in the ugly contest – the last currency standing, so to speak.

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Currencies

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

USD-CHF Bearish Waves Are Pointing Towards 0.9050 / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Gregor_Horvat

USDCHF is showing some nice sharp downside price action after recent sharp fall to 0.9100 area which appears to be wave three of three of an impulsive structure. If that's the case then we know that market will move even lower in sessions ahead but after a completed fourth wave pull-back that is now in progress. Ideally pair will test 0.9150 area before downtrend resumes. Generally speaking trend is clearly bearish on the 4h time frame posted below and it will stay down as long as 0.9228 level is not breached because we know that wave four must not trade into a temerity of a wave one.

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Currencies

Friday, September 20, 2013

U.S. Dollar Still Hanging on the Fiat Cliff / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Joseph_Russo

Arguably, throughout the ages, money and the immense power it manifests, is the most potent driver of systemic corruption.

Further to such argument, it is self-evident that high-level branches of modern-day governments and their attendant institutions alongside private foundations and transnational corporate alliances have been wholly subject to such corruption for centuries.

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Currencies

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

U.S. Dollar Outlook: Taper, Yellen and German Elections / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Axel_Merk

Why are the markets so excited that the smartest guy in the room takes his name out of the running for the (second?) most powerful job in the world? With Larry Summers no longer holding back the markets, what's next for the dollar, currencies and gold?

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Currencies

Monday, September 16, 2013

GBP-USD: When Support Line Becomes A Resistance Line / Currencies / British Pound

By: Gregor_Horvat

A decline on GBPUSD from 2008 peak to 2009 low was in five waves, which in Elliott Wave theory indicates a direction of a larger trend. This is called an impulse wave, and once this leg is complete you will see a reversal in price, against the trend, normally into a slow, choppy and overlapping price action which is personality of a correction.

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Currencies

Thursday, September 12, 2013

British Pound Bearish Reversal Forecast / Currencies / British Pound

By: Gregor_Horvat

Pound (Forex: GBPUSD) is in bullish mode and reached our projected zone for this week; 1.5800-1.5900 which is actually a very important resistance zone in combination with the wave principle and Fibonacci levels. As you can see on the chart we are tracking a huge wedge pattern called an ending diagonal which usually predicts a very strong reversal. With that said, we are keeping an eye on potential sell-off on this pair from current resistance zone. This sell-off can happen soon if we consider that prices are in late stages of wave 5) now, testing 61.8% Fibonacci projection compare to wave 3) and also approaching 161.8 % extension of wave 4).

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Currencies

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Elliott Wave Forecast On USD-CAD: Two Scenarios, Both Bullish / Currencies / Canadian $

By: Gregor_Horvat

USD-CAD is in bearish mode since Friday which means that move from 1.0243 was actually made only in three waves, so this rally is now part of a larger complex correction, either a flat or a triangle. For now we will focus on a triangle but need to see an evidence of a low around 1.0300 zone and rally back to 1.0468 to confirm idea of a contracting triangle.

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Currencies

Monday, September 09, 2013

EUR-USD Already Bearish; GBP-USD Bears Yet To Come / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Gregor_Horvat

EURUSD found a support on Friday after NFP report around 1.3100 area from where we have seen more than 80 pip rally back to the wave 2-wave 4 trendline. Usually when this occurs it means that five wave decline is complete and that market reversed into a temporary correction.

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Currencies

Thursday, September 05, 2013

US Dollar As Money, Myths, Lies, Deceptions and Millstones / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Many are the myths held so firm by the public. Many are the lies told so boldly by the leaders. Many are the millstones around the neck of the system that is fast losing its momentum. Many are the frauds committed routinely in full view. The entire US system is unraveling, myths exposed, lies contradicted, while the millstones weigh down the financial and economic system. The absent Gold Standard, the invalidity of money, the insolvency of banks, the toxic nature of sovereign debt, the illegitimate money, the intrusive debilitating central bank franchise system, these are grand millstones around the neck of the Western system. The current monetary policy is killing capital, a fact not observed by 5% of working economists, the harlots working closely to policy making. The nation is hurtling quickly toward systemic failure in every conceivable frame of light. A quick review should be revealing of myths, lies, deceptions, and millstones.

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Currencies

Thursday, September 05, 2013

U.S. Dollar Clues for Trend Over Next Few Months / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to show you some charts on the US dollar that is finally showing a little action after a month or so of chopping around towards the lows. I have many different looks that might give us a clue or two on what to expect over the next month or so.

The first chart is a 6 month daily chart that shows a potential double inverse H&S bottoming formation. As you can see the smaller inverse H&S #1 had a nice long bar on the breakout followed by a backtest the next day. That completed the smaller inverse H&S bottom. The rally only lasted one day which gave us a point to drawn in the 2nd Neckline. The price action is now getting ready to backtest NL #1 again that would create the right shoulder for the bigger inverse H&S #2. So this is a critical backtest taking place in the next day or two to the 81.90 area. If neckline #1 can hold support the price objective of the bigger H&S bottom would be up to the 84.85 area which would be back at the previous high made in July.

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Currencies

Wednesday, September 04, 2013

USDCHF Elliott Wave Forecast - Could Test 1.0000 By 2013 End / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Gregor_Horvat

USDCHF: Sharp reversal in 2011 from 0.7000 area is impulsive leg, and we know that impulses show direction of a current trend. As such, we think that pair is now bullish for minimum three wave rise; A)-B)-C). In the last few months we have seen a slow and choppy price action in 0.8900-1.0000 range which now seems to be a contracting triangle placed in wave B). We can already count five waves within this pattern so traders must be aware for a push higher into wave C) later this year.

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Currencies

Tuesday, September 03, 2013

EUR-USD Could Be Forming A Major Turning Point For The Year / Currencies / Euro

By: Gregor_Horvat

EURUSD is trading nicely lower for the last week or so which could be start of a new larger impulsive bearish trend. However, decline from 1.3450 is actually still in three waves so corrective outlook must not be ignored but we will stay with current sentiment and focus on the bearish scenario as long as 1.3400 holds.

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Currencies

Monday, September 02, 2013

U.S. Dollar Index Strength Suggests Lower Euro and GBP Ahead / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Gregor_Horvat

Markets gapped on Sunday againts the USD after the U.S. President Barack Obama delayed a military strike against Syria by requesting authorization first from an incredulous Congress. From a technical perspective the wave patterns and direction did not change much. We are bullish on USD, it means we expect weaker majors, such as EUR, GBP, CHF, AUD and even JPY.

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Currencies

Thursday, August 29, 2013

USD-CAD Price Could Extend Up To 1.0650 / Currencies / Canadian $

By: Gregor_Horvat

On USDCAD we are tracking an impulsive price action from around 1.0280 which is still incomplete as we need five waves to the upside. In fact, in this week we have seen only a three wave set-back from the latest swing high which is a corrective structure, so we think that larger uptrend will resume soon so we labeled current retracement as wave 4, which means that we expect another push higher, into wave 5 that will be targeting 1.0620/1.0650.

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Currencies

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Syria, Iran, and Egypt - Troubled Currencies Project Update / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Syria: Since August 26,  when U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry began laying the groundwork for military intervention in Syria, the Syrian pound (SYP) has taken a beating on the black market. Indeed, the SYP has lost 24.07 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar (USD) in the two days since Kerry’s announcement. Currently, the exchange rate sits at 270 SYP/USD, yielding an implied annual inflation rate of 291.88 percent. In countries with troubled currencies, there is no better measure of economic expectations than the black-market exchange rate. The recent deterioration in the SYP/USD exchange rate clearly indicates that Syrians are anticipating Western military intervention in the near term.

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Currencies

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

The Biggest Race to Print Paper Money in History? / Currencies / Central Banks

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: Many central banks within the global economy are involved in printing more of their paper money (often referred to as “fiat” currencies). There’s a race to devalue currencies in hopes to revive economies and maintain a competitive stance. Countries believe that by printing more of their fiat currency, they can improve their exports to the global economy, because the goods will be cheaper for those countries that have a stronger currency.

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Currencies

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

U.S. Dollar Gains Strength Off Remarks of the Federal Reserve Bank / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Submissions

Brett Chatz writes: US dollar gains ground against all of its major trading partners. The US dollar held firm and gained ground against most of its major trading partners in the currency markets. This about-turn in expectation materialized after a poor forecast for US durable goods failed to dampen the dollar’s appreciation against major world currencies. Economists pointed out that the dollar had gained ground against most of the 16 traded currencies. Further news for investors is that the Fed looks set to cut bond purchases in upcoming months. The dollar gains were however halted after John Kerry (US Secretary of State) declared that President Barack Obama will hold the government of Syria responsible for its actions. This is seen as a potentially dramatic shift in foreign policy after the administration seemingly backpedalled on its red line comments.

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Currencies

Monday, August 26, 2013

Tracking USD Long Set-Ups While EUR Is Below 1.3450 and USDCHF above 0.9145 / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Gregor_Horvat

We can see some USD strength at the start of this European morning coming back into the market which has been expected based on the latest intraday price action. We were looking for a three wave move down on USDCHF with our members, and so far we can see that pair found a bottom nicely around 0.9190 from where we can see some encouraging upside reaction. Looks like we could be heading back to 0.9290, and possibly 0.9330 this week.

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Currencies

Thursday, August 22, 2013

US Dollar Index Five Waves Up Points to Higher USD / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Gregor_Horvat

EURUSD found some support an hour back or so, after disappointing US Unemployment claims. So I decided to check the intra-day structure on USD Index to see where the buck is positioned and headed next. Well, on the line chart I can see some very clear impulse to the upside, but its presented on a line chart. Its a clear five wave move with a textbook example of an extended wave three. If you are still learning Elliott Wave, then I suggest you to save and print this chart.

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Currencies

Thursday, August 22, 2013

BRICS Currency Crisis Is Looming / Currencies / Emerging Markets

By: Andrew_McKillop

FORGET THE DYING DOLLAR
Federal Reserve taper-down is becoming almost certain, and with it higher interest rates. One direct result is a strengthening US dollar. The US trade deficit, notably due to fast-growing shale oil production trimming imports and sufficient shale gas output to support LNG export trade, is likely to go on shrinking, strengthening the dollar. The myth of an “always weakening dollar”, which was a reality for years, now has realworld Emerging economy rivals actively slumping towards national currency crises. This concerns major “BRIC's” economies – unlike the 1997-98 Asian NIC crisis.

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