Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, February 02, 2011
New China Yuan Policy Presents Investors with the "Trade of the Century" / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: When the state-owned Bank of China Ltd. (BOC) recently announced that it would begin allowing U.S.-based customers to trade the Chinese yuan here, it represented the biggest step yet in China's ongoing campaign to build global acceptance for its currency.
That desire to boost interest in the yuan in the global currency and trade markets is bolstered by the fact that Beijing's foreign-exchange reserves have now reached a staggering $2.8 trillion.
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Monday, January 31, 2011
Swiss Franc … CHFUSD / Currencies / Forex Trading
We have been tracking on stockcharts eight currencies now for a few years: AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, USD and the ZAR. The charts we offer are all in relation to the USD, and we track the DXY index for the USD. Some time ago we expanded our long term time cycle analysis to include currencies. We have posted about this 34 year secular cycle in the past, and some of its components.
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Sunday, January 30, 2011
Why Japan Needs a Weaker Yen, and How You Can Play It / Currencies / Euro
Standard & Poor’s downgraded Japan’s sovereign debt rating this week. It was the first cut in Japan’s rating in nine years. Japan now joins Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain — all of which have been downgraded in the past twelve months; hardly the kind of company a country wants to keep.
I’ve said many times that in a world mired in debt and deficits, it’s only a matter of time until Japan has its turn under the spotlight of global scrutiny. And with this downgrade, it could be sooner rather than later.
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Friday, January 28, 2011
Could Bernanke Spark a Run on the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
Treasury yields are "blinking red", but the Fed keeps acting like nothing's wrong. What's the deal?
Let's explain: Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's bond purchasing program (QE2) has sent the yield on the 30-year Treasury skyrocketing. At the same time, the the 2-year Treasury is stuck at a lowly 0.61. That means, the "yield curve" between the two bonds has grown steeper, which normally happens at the beginning of a recovery because investors are moving out of "risk free" bonds to riskier assets like stocks. Typically, the yield on the long-term bond will start to go down on its own because investors expect the Fed to raise short-term rates to curb potential inflation. But that's not happening this time. Why? And why should we care?
Friday, January 28, 2011
More EUR/CHF Recovery Needed to Cast Bear Doubts / Currencies / Forex Trading
The chart of the EUR/CHF cross remains weak, with previous recovery attempts only proving short-lived affairs. At present the current bounce is relatively unexciting, but we are looking at certain overhead levels that, if breached, could signal better bull interest.
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Wednesday, January 26, 2011
China Plays Europe Card, Ramifications of Chinese Dollar Swap Facility / Currencies / Euro
Whether Americans and Westerners in general like it or not, the Chinese have become and will remain the key drivers to many economic and financial market developments, progress, and averted wreckage. The intrepid lapdog US press, loyal to the syndicate, is a critical element to maintain distractions. Of course, China must adapt and react to their own stumbles and accidents, assured since for years they have maintained a tight link in monetary policy. Doing so has linked their asset bubble expansion and bust cycle to the deadly one in the United States, and filled their coffers with US$-denominated toxic debt securities.
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Monday, January 24, 2011
Euro's Reversal of Fortune & Outlook / Currencies / Euro
The Euro closed up Friday`s session at 136.13, and looks poised to make a run up to test the 140 level in February. I, among many, was thinking the Euro would next test the 125 level, and things started heading well in that direction with the Euro moving down to 129, and appearing on a downward slope.
So what happened? Well, there have been quite a few new developments that prompted this reversal of the euro fortune.
Friday, January 21, 2011
European Debt Crisis: How to Profit No Matter What Happens / Currencies / Euro
Shah Gilani writes: Since the European debt crisis first emerged in early 2010, it has dominated headlines, roiled the world financial markets, and has kept investors in a perpetual state of alert as they wait for the next shoe to drop.
But let me share with you a little-known secret: Investors who understand where the "fault lines" are forming in this Eurozone debacle can transform the biggest sovereign-debt crisis in years into a major profit opportunity.
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Friday, January 21, 2011
GBP/JPY Bulls Trying to Gain Control / Currencies / British Pound
Price action in the GBP/JPY cross was relatively subdued in the second half of 2010, although staying on the weak side. A recent bounce has again raised the prospect of a better recovery phase, but key resistance still needs to be overcome.
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Friday, January 21, 2011
Can Sterling’s Strength Continue? / Currencies / British Pound
We have argued over recent months in the Macro Trader’s guide that Sterling was oversold during the financial crisis and subsequent recession. We judged the UK economy fared no better or worse than most other leading developed economies.
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Thursday, January 20, 2011
Plans to Save the Doomed U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
Reuters’ Emily Flitter asks in a recent column What is Plan B if China dumps its U.S. debt?
Read full article... Read full article...It is worth asking about U.S. officials’ Plan B just in case one day relations take a surprise turn for the worse and Beijing dumps its holdings of U.S. treasuries.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
U.S. Dollar, AUD, CAD, Euro Forecast Update / Currencies / Forex Trading
Right now, markets are extremely choppy, with the correction in gold stocks, particularly the HUI correcting back to the 490-500 area. From a quick glance of charts, the S&P 500 index and XOI remain in definitive uptrends, while the HUI has pulled back. There is really no change in the technical picture at present...the bubble the FED blew is still growing and will continue to expand until the surface tension of the bubble exceeds the capacity to remain intact and then it will burst. Energy prices are still set to rise, which in turn will raise the cost of every item transported and drive up precious metals. We are in the last two years of the current government term in the US and historically, they have been favourable to the stock markets. Beyond the last half of 2012 and into 2014, things are going to get really ugly. Another deflationary scare will likely occur during this period which will bring down most commodities and markets. After 2014, interest rates are likely to soar as bond holders are going to demand a higher rate of return when it becomes obvious that inflation is well above the stated levels.
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Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Global Currency War: How to Keep the "Race to the Bottom" From Stealing Our Future / Currencies / Fiat Currency
Martin Hutchinson writes: When Brazil Finance Minister Guido Mantega recently warned of a "currency war that is turning into a trade war," he wasn't far off the mark - at least as far as Latin America is concerned.
In that region - in the last two weeks alone - at least three countries have taken steps to prevent their currencies from appreciating against the U.S. dollar.
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Tuesday, January 18, 2011
A Temporary Lifeline for the U.S. Dollar 2011 / Currencies / US Dollar
2011 is set to be the year of the dollar’s rebound.At first glance, the dollar shouldn’t be on the rise. Official unemployment is stuck at near 10%. Dozens of municipal governments are set to fall into bankruptcy this year. The federal budget deficit is over $1 trillion. The Fed has signaled its intention to monetize more debt.
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Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Surge in Euro, Weakness in Gold and patterned drop in Aussie Dollar / Currencies / Forex Trading
The Surge in Euro: Last week was not green backs and regardless of it weakening “materially” it was against Euro where it performed the worst! Many would perhaps think that our reiterated call of Euro bear might have been wrong as on Jan 5th in our article [Euro took a beating yesterday and a bad one! Whereas Greenback doesn’t seem as strong as how the street is portraying it to be] we seemed to be leaning towards the fact that Euro would push higher and Green back would weaken.
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Monday, January 17, 2011
Why Hold Dollars if the Fed is Going to Intentionally Deflate Their Value? / Currencies / US Dollar
As everyone seems to know, and as you have read endlessly in innumerable reports, the Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet by more than two trillion dollars. At present is in the process of adding another six hundred billion dollars of assets by monetizing U.S. government debt. At the same time, Obama Regime's deficit has spiraled out of control. Correctly measured, that deficit for the past year was $1.7 trillion.
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Monday, January 17, 2011
Medium Term EUR/GBP Downtrend Resuming / Currencies / Euro
A medium term bear signal in the EUR/GBP cross was given in the first half of 2010, with subsequent recovery finding good technical resistance last October. Renewed weakness now looks like the resumption of the main downtrend.
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Thursday, January 13, 2011
How to Conquer The Market / Currencies / Forex Trading
You only have to watch my earlier videos to see that it has performed very well this week in gold as well as the crude. In today's short video I want to share an ETF that is setting up nicely and should be giving us a buy signal using the same strategy that we used in the earlier gold and crude oil videos.
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Thursday, January 13, 2011
Bank of China Seeks to Create Global Currency / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
Kerri Shannon writes: State-owned Bank of China Ltd. has announced that it will allow U.S. customers to open yuan accounts to buy and sell China's currency.
According Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald this is yet another deliberate move by China, which is attempting to promote the role of its currency in global trade.
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Wednesday, January 12, 2011
The China Miracle: Forex Reserves Hit Record $2.87 Trillion / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
In the 'Japan Miracle' of the 1980-1990's it is said that Japan essentially 'monetized its real estate.' There was also a mythology of the superiority of Japanese management, with an emphasis on quality management ironically pioneered by the American W. Edwards Deming.
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