Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, October 18, 2019
British Pound Brexit Chaos GBP Trend Forecast / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Pound fell sharply following the announcement that Parliament would be suspended so as to enable a hard Brexit. However subsequent chaos of the Governments loss of control of Parliament with Remainer's taking control of business of the house has seen a sharp bounce in sterling which is contrary to what one would expect given extreme chaos and uncertainty.
Taking a look at the British Pound since Theresa May took office July 2016 against key Brexit events paints a different picture of what is driving the British Pound where the Brexit factor is concerned.
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Thursday, October 17, 2019
Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recent rotation in multiple foreign currencies hints at the fact that a new stage of the “Capital Shift” process is taking place and that skilled technical investors need to pay very close attention to how these currencies continue to react over the next 3 to 6+ months. In the recent past, most of the world’s foreign currencies were declining in value while the US Dollar continued to strengthen. In fact, we authored many research articles about these trends and how weakness in foreign currencies will drive new foreign investment into the US stock markets for two simple reasons; strength and security.
Now that a few of the world’s most mature economies, and some that may surprise you, are starting to change directions, we may be beginning a new stage of the “capital shift” process that may open up multiple new opportunities for skilled technical traders. As the old saying goes, “follow the money”. At this point, if our research team is correct about these price trend changes, following the money may mean opening our eyes to new investment opportunities across the Pacific and Atlantic – as well as very near to the US.
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Monday, October 14, 2019
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GBP Long-term Trend
What stands out from the long-term chart is that GBP has been in a downtrend for many years, a good 20 years in fact for I recall sterling trading at over £/$ 2.0 a few years earlier than this graph. So whilst the clueless mainstream press have been crowing since 23rd of June of how the Pound has collapsed following Brexit. What they fail to understand is that Pound would have fallen regardless of the results of the 23rd June 2016 referendum because it's in a bear market.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A good technical starting point would be a quick look at the prospects for the US Dollar.
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Thursday, October 10, 2019
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Submissions
Consumers are always worrying about the rising cost of basic needs, products, and services. Whether we like it or not, the global economy affects all of us.
When we hear the word inflation, we often think about the increase in the prices of the things we buy. But how important is it to understand inflation and the factors that influence it?
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Thursday, October 10, 2019
Monetary Madness Puts U.S. Dollars Holders in Jeopardy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
We’re in uncharted territory. Never before have U.S. fiscal and monetary policy been leveraged so heavily to boost an economy that wasn’t even in recession.
Something will break – and it could be the value of U.S. currency. The Federal Reserve Note now faces devaluation pressures on multiple fronts.
With the federal government running a trillion-dollar budget deficit and an election year approaching, fiscal restraint is a dead letter in Washington, D.C. Politicians are fighting over who can promise to borrow and spend the most.
Wednesday, October 02, 2019
A Guide to FX Trading By Artur Hochberg / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Travis_Bard
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Saturday, September 28, 2019
British Pound Fundamental Analysis / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Political Implications
An expected Tory general election win favours GBP strengthening as it delivers political certainty even if under BJ implies a hard Brexit outcome is more probable.
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Friday, September 27, 2019
Bitcoin Price Collapse Continues For Many Months / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent price collapse in Bitcoin may be the start of a much bigger price trend in the Cryptos. The support level near $9000 has been breached and the current resistance arc, see the MAGENTA Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs on these charts, are clearly acting as a major contracting price resistance level. Our research suggests price will find support near $7900, then $5571, then possibly just above $2000. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter
The Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs are a proprietary modeling tool we use to measure and track how price may react based on previous price swings. They are the visual deployment of two unique theories; Fibonacci price theory and Tesla’s Mechanical Resonance theory. The basis behind our thinking when we created this proprietary tool was that Fibonacci price theory suggests that all price movement is related and structured to previous price movements and that Tesla’s theory that everything we touch, see and know to exist is the result of ENERGY suggested to us that ENERGY may be one of the most important components in understanding price movement.
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Thursday, September 19, 2019
The Many Forex Trading Opportunities the Fed Day Has Dealt Us / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Volatile trading is calming down, revealing several opportunities. The euro has retraced its yesterday’s downswing, the Japanese yen is strengthening – just as the Canadian dollar is. Swiss franc is another currency we’re keeping a close eye on. But how does it translate into our currency trading plans?
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Wednesday, September 18, 2019
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Bitcoin continued it's bear market into 2019 hitting a low of $3,400 by Mid Feb, following which the bitcoin price entered into a trading range with an upward bias with resistance at $4,300 and rising trendline support from the $3,400 low as illustrated by the chart from my last update of late April 2019.
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Sunday, September 15, 2019
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
Metals investors are anxiously awaiting the market’s reaction to next week’s Fed meeting. We may see players in the futures markets move to smash gold and silver prices down to lower support zones in the trading around the Fed’s decision.
But flushing out some more speculative longs and late comers with weak hands would be a healthy development in setting up the next rally.
Those who got left behind in this summer’s big moves in metals markets should certainly consider taking advantage of favorable buying opportunities as they present themselves ahead of a possible seasonal push higher in the sector this fall.
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Saturday, September 14, 2019
British Pound vs Brexit Chaos Timeline / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The consensus view is that the market seeks a resolution to Brexit uncertainty of when or even if the UK would leave the EU. Which given current extreme chaos would suggest that the British Pound should be an death spiral of sorts.
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Monday, September 09, 2019
UUP Bullish Cycles from May 2011 lows / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Firstly the dollar tracking ETF fund UUP inception date was 2/20/2007. Interestingly the dollar index has a low in March 2008. The UUP ETF fund shows a low in May 2011. The dollar index did make a pullback cycle low in May 2011 however it was well above the March 2008 lows. The bullish cycle up from the May 2011 lows in UUP is the focus of this analysis where it begins on the weekly chart. It should see some further upside before any larger size pullbacks relative to the longer term cycles.
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Saturday, August 31, 2019
King Dollar Global Reserve Paradox / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
An intriguing paradox is evident, whereby the USDollar continues to rise despite the global economic recession. In fact, it can be argued that the USDollar is rising in the past several months, because of the global recession. On a worldwide basis, the economy is struggling badly, especially in the West. Worse still, without a doubt, the rising USDollar is destroying the individual economies of smaller nations, one by one. The King Dollar is truly an economic machete. Numerous factors are at work. All contribute toward the continued rise of the USDollar until the systemic breakdown hits both the economy and the financial system. The sign of systemic breakdown is the bond rally, which has taken bond yields into negative territory. Nobody with a working cerebrum can claim that $17 trillion in sovereign bonds sporting negative yields can defend the current system as either normal or stable. The Fed Valuation Model justifies higher stock index values when bond yields are lower, but the model has no modern feature for negative rates. Eventually, and soon, the only beneficiary will be Gold & Silver, along with a few hard assets like diamonds.
Wednesday, August 28, 2019
New Gold & Silver Bull Analogs / Currencies / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Back during the bear market years (it’s nice to be able to write that now), I regularly would compare the declines in Gold, Silver and gold stocks to their past history. It gave us a visual representation of just how bad the forever bear market was and helped us decipher when it might end.
Thankfully that is all behind us.
Now it’s time to compare recent bullish moves to past iterations.
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Sunday, August 25, 2019
Newbie Guide to Currency Pairs in Forex Trading – Review / Currencies / BlockChain
By: Kavinesh_A
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Thursday, August 22, 2019
USD/JPY, USD/CHF, GBP/USD Currency Pairs to Watch Prior to FOMC Minutes and Jackson Hole / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
It’s often like this prior to market-moving events. Prices keep trading in a narrow consolidation, dropping subtle clues here and there. The context remains though, and coupled with the preceding price action, it allows to us to see the market tipping its hand. So, how have we prepared for what’s to come?
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Saturday, August 17, 2019
It’s Time For Colombia To Dump The Peso / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Colombia’s peso is in trouble, again. Against the U.S. dollar, the peso has shed 20% of its value in a little more than a year and 7% in the last month. Like most Latin American currencies, the Colombian peso bobs up and down like a yo-yo, but its long-term trend is one of weakness. Indeed, since August 2014, the peso has lost 45% of its value against the greenback. Talk about a theft! The chart below tells the peso’s most recent tale.
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Thursday, August 15, 2019
GBP vs USD Forex Pair Swings Into Focus Amid Brexit Chaos / Currencies / British Pound
By: Submissions
On July 16th Sterling hit its 2019 low of $1.24 against the US Dollar. It wasn’t the biggest surprise, as GBP has been bouncing around the $1.25-$1.26 mark for most of July, and, indeed, sits around that mark at the time of writing one week later.The drop in Sterling’s value prompted a bit of a reaction on social media, which soon snowballed into hysteria and misinformation. The latter came from a widely shared story on Twitter, which claimed that GBP had reached its lowest rate against USD since 1985. That was, in fact, incorrect, as the Pound was buying $1.22 in January 2017.
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